Topic: Theory: Get ready for a Nintendo Switch first party software drought.

@nitrolink We won't get a new gen of Pokemon until at least 2025 (that's just how the Pokemon cycle works), however I could definitely see them starting a Switch 2 off with another Legends game similar to how they started the Switch with Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee. Coincided with Unova/Kalos remakes perhaps? Though that's getting WAAAAY ahead of ourselves XD

I think there's a greater than zero chance that the amount of MASSIVELY successful type of games will slow down, but there's basically like two dozen full priced games every year that sell more than like 5 million, and half of them are sports games so...eh. I don't think it means much of anything.

But I also doubt that since 3DS got quite a few big games in 2016. Especially Sun/Moon, which was like 4 months before the Switch came out.

@Dev9417 The confirmed games alone debunk the threads statement to be honest.

I give this theory a C+. I do think that Nintendo are at the very least getting into the tail end of pure Switch development. But I don't think we're that far away from new hardware that it'll be a "couple of lean years". I also still firmly believe there will be compatibility between the new hardware and existing Switch SKUs to the point where it makes sense to continue making "Switch" games

Here's the way I see it potentially playing out:

• TotK launches with no talk of new hardware
• At "E3" they reveal new hardware for somewhere around October
• Pikmin 4 will release at launch as a Switch game that's enhanced when played on the new hardware
• Existing games can be updated to take advantage of the new hardware (TotK)
• Get announcements of 2-4 titles that are exclusive to the new hardware
• Get announcements of dozens of games that are lighter and are either Switch or "Enhanced"

@Fizza I think at the very least we'll get a new Generation Remake for Pokemon on Switch, my prediction it'll be either Let's Go versions of gen 2 or more traditional gen 5 remakes.

I mean, he could be saying this and not be counting Pikmin 4 as a "huge 1st party game" when it is to a lot of people. Numerous times I've seen folks only consider stuff like 3D Zelda, 3D Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Kart and new Pokemon gens. as huge.

@TowaHerschel7 As die-hard of a Pokemon fan as I am, I think I'm all Pokemon-ed out for the next long while. SV will most likely get DLC which will be more than enough to tide me over and, while I have enjoyed every Pokemon game released on Switch (with games like Legends Arceus becoming some of my all-time favourites in the series), I was definitely starting to feel some burnout come SV's release so saving a New Gen Remake or other kind of game until a Switch successor is more than fine with me.

In the meantime then I'd kill to see them release a few more spinoffs in the gap years since we've had a relative lack of them in the Switch era (personally hoping for either a brand new PMD game or Explorers remake a la Rescue Team DX!).

I almost think that Nintendo doesn't have a software drought before the Switch successor. For the first time, they don't have a handheld that might take up many of the titles in the console droughts.

I think if anything, it'll be a bunch of ports from the Wii/Wii U era. That's when we'll get Xenoblade Chronicles X, Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD, and Star Fox Zero (especially since they can easily ask Platinum Games to do their best to rework it).

Let's also not forget that the leaker who leaked Fire Emblem Engage also mentioned a remake of Geanology of the Holy War/Thracia 776.

EDIT: I'd also like to add that there will absolutely be a ton of different indy games that'll fill in the gaps.

In my humble opinion it sure doesn’t seem like the switch is slowing down any time soon but 2023 is a new year and it would not surprise me if there is a slow down of big name titles on this platform. This thing can’t last forever.

anyway my thoughts beyond "lol ok" is that 2023 will be the last big year for the system and they'll have just enough coming out in 2024 before the Switch 2 comes out but keep a lot of the big stuff for the Switch 2's first year. It's Nintendo so I don't trust we're in a dry spell until it actually happens, because they'll just announce a bunch of games that will come out in 5 or less months.

@kkslider5552000 you said LOL OK, but the sentiment of your post is basically the same as the original post by @magician

If 2023 is the last big year, Zelda TotK will be the biggest game and it's unlikely we see a big 3D Mario game.

The Switch is selling as well as the 'next gen' consoles. You think it's the last year for PS5 and XBS too?

@iLikeUrAttitude Oh there's always room for pessimism, my friend. Until the potable water and/or oil runs dry and the world's economy collapses in on itself. While nations are at each others throats, fighting over ever-dwindling resources. I shall enjoy myself until the bitter end. And when I'm dead and buried all I ask is that you bury me with a controller in my hand.

I wouldn’t mind seeing a litt more than what’s on slate….but I do have a big backlog across several systems….only two games really interest me… Pikmin and Advance Wars. I will also get Kirby, but we have gotten so much from that series, I could do without.

@Magician this is very much part of the reason I don't want kids.

Anyway, getting a bit more on topic in regards to pessimism, I feel like it's so natural at this point with Nintendo fans and the next era for them. The Wii U era. The Virtual Boy. (Technically) the GameCube. I think we all want Nintendo to succeed to keep making games, but if it means that we have another 2018, so be it.

The PS3 was outselling the Wii U in 2013. Did the PS3 or Wii U get replaced first? Different platforms, different cycles. Competition only matters in terms of how much it impacts their ability to sell units

@skywake Did...did you just make a counter arguement citing the Wii U? Hehehe

The user base of the Switch is now so massive, I think Nintendo will find it very hard to wean itself off it. The sales figures for Splatoon 3 and Pokemon ScaVi alone from last year show why. And the indestructible sales performance of Mario Kart 8D. Nintendo doesn’t rely solely on hardware to make money and it may never recapture the lightning in a bottle success of the Switch again, especially with a handheld rival like the SteamDeck. You don’t throw away 130million players to pile everything into a new console. There’ll be at least a year or two (or three) of cross-platform support - even Sony has done that.

@GrailUK
I mean it's an extreme example but it's a fair point I think. Maybe a better example might be the PS2 vs 360. PS2 sales peaked in 2002 and were on a very, very slow decline and Switch sales peaked in 2020 and are on a similar relatively slow decline. On that timeline the Switch is around about in what would be the equivalent to ~2005

The PS2 was still selling more units than the 360 into 2007. So by the "it's selling more than current gen" rationale the PS3 shouldn't have released in 2006. It should have waited until at least 2008 because the PS2 was still outselling "next gen consoles". Strange stuff like that happens when you're dealing with extremely successful or extremely unsuccessful platforms. Not something you want to build a strategy around

@skywake The PS2 was in a weirdly unique situation as well. Around 2007 it was still one of the best values for a DVD player and if you were in the market for one, it was still a really good deal comparatively. Plus the PS3 was terribly priced at launch.

I also think the PS2 really benefitted from having a relevant console that was on the same level with the Wii.