Topic: Theory: Get ready for a Nintendo Switch first party software drought.

A census is beginning to build. The idea is that Zelda: TotK will be last "major" Nintendo game released for the current platform. That the frequency of first party releases will begin to slow in 2023. As with the leadup to the Switch's launch in 2017, Nintendo effectively slowed Wii U software development in 2015 in preparation for the Switch's launch.

Nintendo fans should prepare themselves for a couple lean years on Switch from 2023 onwards.

I very rarely buy games the second they come out anyway (with only a few exceptions like Pokemon and Splatoon) so this wouldn't really bother me in the slightest. If anything, it'd give me the opportunity to catch up on games I've missed but always wanted to play like Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury and Luigi's Mansion 3 so I'm more than fine with this arrangement.

I'm fully aware I'm probably in the minority when saying that though.

Lol, really? I was expecting another year where they released a game a month. Swear down, some folk seem to just have perpetual anxiety about Nintendo. Maybe they should drop gaming and take up knitting?

The Switch still has really strong software sales momentum, it wouldn't make much sense for them to suddenly stop making games for it.

Unless their new console is radically different to the Switch or by the time it is out, they expect it to have died like the Wii did, It makes much more sense to keep the early titles for it cross-platform, so they can keep selling a lot of software by capitalising on the Switch's massive user base, while easing in people into the new platform.

Then again it is Nintendo, you can never predict what they are going to do.

Obviously Prime 4 won't be a 2023 release but outside that game we have:

• January 20th - Fire Emblem Engage
• February 24th - Kirby Return to Dream Land Deluxe
• March 17th - Bayonetta Origins
• May 12th - Tears of the Kingdom
• 2023 - Pikmin 4
• TBA - Advance Wars
• TBA - Detective Pikachu

You also have lots of DLC/content updates:

• XC3 (2 waves, 1 of which may be so big it's also a standalone retail release)
• MK8 Deluxe (3 waves)
• FE Engage (4 waves)
• Splatoon 3 (free updates every 3 months and a paid expansion)
• Switch Sports (probably more sports)
• Likely Pokemon Scarlet/Violet Expansion Pass
• Possibly TotK getting an expansion pass
• Sparks of Hope (3 waves)

This doesn't look like slowing down to me and that's not even considering multiplatform releases. Unless Nintendo's literally not going to announce any unannounced games next year of which in that case they'd likely get rid of Directs outside of a TotK specific Direct around February/March and some Partner Showcases.

Isn't Andy Robinson the same guy that said Wind Waker and Twilight Princess were "100%" coming to the Switch in 2021? And here we are coming into 2023...

Although Nintendo seemingly pulled all of their resources from the Wii U to focus on the Switch, the practice is generally very unlike them. That was an exceptional case where the Wii U was a sinking ship and Nintendo were (rightfully) betting on the success of their future system. Heck, I remember people getting annoyed at how much the 3DS was being supported after the Switch's launch.

@Buizel Oh yeah, good call. 'Why is this coming to 3DS!?!?!' Very good.

I agree and the evidence backs it up. The TOTK OLED and reduced profitability of a beefier model mean a Switch pro almost certainly won't happen in 2023. Nintendo isn't going to drop the next 3D mario game next year (which has been at least 3-4 years in development if we account for Bowser's Fury) and wait 3+ years to put a new one on the next console. No, it's saving it for the Switch successor, as well as potentially many other 1st/2nd party games. And while Switch sales are still strong, they're declining pretty steadily. They won't go through 2024 with anaemic hardware numbers; I almost guarantee the Switch successor will be announced in late 2023/early 2024 and released in 2024.

I think the theory leads us to consider something else, do any of these games release on the Switch:-
1. Metroid Prime 4
2. Metroid Prime 1 Remake
3. Zelda Windwaker + Twilight Princess
4. Rumoured 2D Mario game

I'm really not sure, ports could be used to pad out a lean end of life for the Switch or to give more reasons to buy a new system.
I really wouldn't be surprised at this point if MP4 is a new system launch title alongside a Mario or Mario Kart game.

@MarioBrickLayer There's also been a rumoured NPD Donkey Kong game, though I'm not sure if anything will come of it at this point.

There is probably a bit of truth in this... BUT, let's assume TotK will be as much of a time-sink as BotW - do we really need the same level of 1st party output as 2022?
If we see a similar number of quality 3rd party ports (No Mans Sky / Nier / Persona5 etc etc) then that should be more than sufficient alongside the 1st party titles already slated.
The indie scene should continue to run full-steam also, and maybe even Hades 2 in 2023?!

I think it is quite likely that 1st party output won't match the quality or quantity of 2022... but as long as Nintendo deliver the titles already promised, and we continue to get solid 3rd party ports + new/exciting indie titles, this should be enough I think.

Only so many hours in the day to play, and I've still got a huge backlog of 2022 games not yet played ha (Xenoblade 3 still on 'to do')

I am absolutely fine with that! Actually, for me the Switch is more of a platform for ports and for the physical factor.

If it did not have cartridges (which is the best physical media for me), I wouldn't even bought it back in 2017

I can't decide between Xbox X and PS5. Xbox has Forza Horizon, and I'd like to play High on Life. While playstation has.... well, I used to like Sly Cooper and Metal Gear, but those are dead now. I'm not sure if Playstation has anything I want outside of Stray.

Hey I said this way before this guy.
Being serious, the switch is going into its seventh year. Third party games already struggle on it. I would be surprised if new hardware isn’t revealed in late 2023.

Good point, not wanting to change the subject, but I've been thinking that the rumoured Donkey Kong and Mario games might be the same game, starring both players and both being playable. That could tie in with the movie quite well.

@kaisu That's a really good point! If I didn't buy a single game this year, I wouldn't clear my backlog. I'm aiming to start and finish one game a month this year - first up is Neir Automata!

Nintendo knows that Tears of the Kingdom is likely their last +10 million-selling game for Switch, so they have been reluctant to release it. I fully expect Mario Kart and 3D Mario are saved for launch year of the next console with Pokemon and Animal Crossing shortly behind. It's possible that a Pokemon sequel or new 2D Mario on Switch could sell +10 million though.

@nitrolink The implication of what you're saying is that they've held it back, not sure I completely agree with that. I think if it was ready it would have released in 2022.

I'm going to revive this thread after E3, and it will be very funny.

@Magician No offense but are you running out of thread ideas?
We already have a bunch of games confirmed for 2023 pointed out by @Grumblevolcano and me in a separate thread:
(https://www.nintendolife.com/forums/nintendo-switch/most_anticipated_switch_games_for_2023)
Not to mention the year isn't even over yet we'll obviously get more announcements within the next nintendo direct and throughout the year.
This is just more baseless theorycrafting and pessimism where it shouldn't be.

First-party support sure as hell isn't looking slim for 2023.

Not saying the gravy train won't eventually slow down, but I'll need more than the assurances of a discredited rumor-mongerer.