@MarioBrickLayer@TSR3@JaxonH@skywake Interesting fact: the right joy-con's IR camera can also emit two IR points. You could conceivably use one right joy-con as a sensor bar and another as the pointer controller. This video shows it off pretty well:
I guess one could also use more right joy-cons as emitters to really up the accuracy if needed.
@ProPAIN
Yep, it's also how they calculated distance with Labo and that reflective tape. A bit to close for detecting roll and distance at a seated position though. Honestly, probably wouldn't matter too much given the pointer was pretty much only ever used for pointing to a spot in 2D space. Did anyone ever really care that you could rotate the pointer? And the distance thing, was always a bit clunky. Metroid Prime 3 used both pretty extensively for the lock puzzles I think
@Spanky84
Hard disagree. The Switch is a portable, being able to dock it doesn't change that fact. I'd argue the main reason the 3DS was great for the time is that we got a bunch of Wii/GC tier games on a portable console for the first time. Before that the DS was great for N64 tier experiences and the GBA was basically just a portable SNES. The Switch is great for the same reason except this time with 360/PS3/Wii U tier games so it's basically just doing the same thing every other portable did before it
Portables since forever have just been paired back home consoles. As tech advances they move through the same generations just a tad behind. We're now at the point where portables are about to hit the modern "the new hardware is good enough", "damn flash is going to get super cheap" and "wow look how power efficient everything is" eras. All at once. So that gap is going to slam shut
Would I like to see a smaller Switch than the Switch Lite even? 100%, I'm all down for that. Do I think that this next piece of hardware in terms of spec jump won't be quite as impressive as what was essentially a Gimped Wii -> OP Wii U transition we got with 3DS -> Switch? 100%. Would I like to see a camera on this new piece of hardware for the ability to tinker with some AR concepts? Definitely, the more tools you give developers the better. 3D? Sure, why not
But even with all that, the Switch is most definitely a portable. The claim that it isn't a "true portable" and therefore "needs something" is total bunkum. Its successor will also be a portable for the same reason. The fact that the gap between home console and portable spec is being rapidly eroded? That's not a bad thing for portables. That's a bad thing for non portables. It'll eventually mean the death of non-portable devices and I'm here for it
So the software exists first before they can justify making the hardware... unless it's something that you want to see the hardware for then the hardware can come first. Basically what you're saying
I mean it's really quite simple. We are about 2-3 years away from SSDs being cheaper than HDDs per GB. Which means we suddenly shift from the HDD growth curve to the SSD growth curve. And get increased speed as we go along also. Which is a fundamental shift in storage and so has to impact things. The PS5 and XBox Series are already using it for larger worlds and lower load times. Which isn't THAT compelling. But even so, this is going to be the story of the next 10 years or so and will allow some things that were previously not possible. And because flash is small and power efficient? This will impact portables more than it will non-portable devices
With AI acceleration hardware? This is also relatively new, the products exist already but the mainstream use of it has only been the last few years. What we're basically talking about is hardware that's very good at very high volume, very low precision calculations. Specifically designed for the task. We've already seen some of the fruits of this. Ray Tracing, DLSS, Large Language Models, photo processing, deep fakes and so on. Can this stuff be done without the hardware? Yes. It's just much slower without dedicated hardware. This is something that's going to change the kinds of things that are possible in games, and not just Ray Tracing and DLSS. And you know what more efficient way of processing things means? Lower power consumption
Then thirdly, mobile hardware just keeps getting better. Spurred on in not small part from the two things I mentioned above. Again, in this thread we're speculating about new hardware from Nintendo that'll be a portable PS4. With AI upscaling. And flash storage. That's not future tech, that's NOW tech. And we're still seeing hardware get more and more power efficient. As crap as NVidia's pricing structure is ATM they still released this year a line of cards that were significantly more power efficient than the previous gen. We're seeing similar things in the x86 space from AMD. And with ARM particularly from Apple. We're racing towards a future where there it'll be increasingly hard to justify a piece of hardware plugged into the wall under your TV when it could go basically as good a job and be portable. That'll change the gaming landscape, to a degree it already has
So basically you don't even know what kinds of innovations things like SSD storage and AI acceleration will bring? You just think that maybe some day these things might open up new gameplay styles possibly? If you don't even have an idea of what it can do differently, how can your audience know and be convinced that they need it?
Meanwhile VR. I mean VR is nice but it exists and I think it's already pretty well explored idea from a software perspective. I mean really all you're adding to what already existed for games is head tracking. It's not a fundamental shift for gaming. And as cool as the VR level of immersion is it brings with it all of the drawbacks of having to wear eyeware. And in any case, our monkey brains do a pretty good job of being immersed in a 2D experience already. If VR was going to change the world of gaming it would've done it already. I like VR but as a stand alone technology it's not particularly compelling. To be brutal, I think motion controls opened up gaming to more ideas than VR will
I mean yeah, technically motion controls are doing most of the heavy lifting with their ideas here and VR is more the display than the control scheme. But again, the problem with motion controls without VR is that it's going to be limited by play space. You're not going to be able to move around much in a small room, this is part of the reason why motion control peripherals such as Kinect and the Virtuix Omni never caught on, they require more space than most rooms can afford. Full dive VR can expand your play space by moving it to the virtual world instead of the real world.
I'll make a slight adjustment to my prediction about a DK game being announced in a September general Direct. While I think Metroid Prime 4 will be in the Direct anyway, I think it would have to be in the Direct for a DK game to be announced. This is because the absence of Prime 4 warped people's opinions of the DK franchise for the past decade.
Ehh, Iwata's tease of a "beloved IP by Retro" being TF instead of Prime 4 stung, but that's not the entire reason why I haven't been terribly excited for DK lately. My issue with DK is that it's suffering from the same issues as NSMB to a lesser degree and DK needs its Super Mario Bros. Wonder moment. DKCR was exciting because DK had a fairly lengthy drought of main games, but TF didn't really do much to build on the DK formula (most of its changes were things that were brought back from the original trilogy, and they didn't even completely catch up with the originals because they still didn't bring back Animal Buddies not named Rambi). So TF feels like a very NSMB-esque sequel to Returns (really I think this might be a genre-wide problem with linear platformers, as almost every linear platformer in the 2010s have felt this way on at least some level). A bit better with having unique settings and level gimmicks, but it still feels
Would I like to see a smaller Switch than the Switch Lite even? 100%, I'm all down for that. Do I think that this next piece of hardware in terms of spec jump won't be quite as impressive as what was essentially a Gimped Wii -> OP Wii U transition we got with 3DS -> Switch? 100%. Would I like to see a camera on this new piece of hardware for the ability to tinker with some AR concepts? Definitely, the more tools you give developers the better. 3D? Sure, why not
But even with all that, the Switch is most definitely a portable. The claim that it isn't a "true portable" and therefore "needs something" is total bunkum. Its successor will also be a portable for the same reason. The fact that the gap between home console and portable spec is being rapidly eroded? That's not a bad thing for portables. That's a bad thing for non portables. It'll eventually mean the death of non-portable devices and I'm here for it
While claiming the Switch "isn't a portable" is going a bit far, I think it is fair to say that it doesn't function super well as a portable because it can't fit in your pocket well. And I don't think just making the screen smaller is a good solution to that problem either, making it smaller makes it harder to see. I do think we need a Switch with a clamshell design to function well as a handheld.
@Bolt_Strike
I gave examples of what it could bring but you dismissed them as software ideas. Meanwhile the pie in the sky ideas you have raised re: VR, many of which did not require VR, are reasons for VR hardware. So I don't see any reason to engage in this discussion any further TBH
In terms of the Switch not having "portable games". That's basically a software issue. Obviously some games designed for 65" TVs would be odd on a 4" screen. But there are plenty of games that would scale well. Most 2D platformers for example
And in any case, the same thing has been true of portables since forever. Super Mario Land was less dense than Super Mario World. Minish Cap was less dense than Ocarina of Time. Mario 64 DS was less dense than Sunshine. 3D World was less dense than Galaxy. But all of that was basically a function of what the hardware could do. Portable games now have effectively no limit in terms of scale.... which means developers can, and do, make games that are WAY to big for a small screen
@Professor_Plumber If it was Q1 2024 then that would mean Nintendo would've lied to their investors which doesn't go down well.
Why do you think a Q1 24 launch would mean lying to investors? I know financial statements and their Q&As can be a hall of mirrors, but I read this May's Q&A as strongly indicating that the rest of 2023 would be a big (final) push for the Switch (which is why I jumped off of a 2023 launch the new machine). However I didn't read anything ruling out when the new machine would launch, so did I miss something?
I know some people have interpreted the May Q&A as Nintendo having so much confidence in the Switch that a late 2023 reveal of the new machine wouldn't impact negatively on Switch holiday sales. I don't subscribe to that myself, but as I wrote, it's a hall of mirrors.
@TSR3 Most of the interpretations are that they strongly implied no new hardware this fiscal year, although I tend to agree with you the wording left wiggle room. Nintendo's fiscal year of course ends in March 2024 so when anyone in these conversations says '2023' they often mean 'up to and including Q1 2024'.
@ProPAIN interesting! I don't think they full utilised the stuff in the joy cons. It will be interesting to see if they try and reduce costs for the Switch 2 by not including it.
@MarioBrickLayer I agree it would feel weird to announce it this calendar year. Surely they are expecting Mario Wonder to sell some hardware this holiday and announcing new 2024 hardware would almost certainly lessen those sales somewhat. Conceivably they could double-down on back compatibility and have Switch be significantly cheaper than Switch 2 and sell that way, but it seems simpler to just wait to announce until 2024. My personal guess is February 2024 announced at earliest — enough time that people have forgotten how much money they just spent on Mario and plenty of time to save up pennies if April 2024 is actually the date. Peach game could easily fill in the calendar gap. I agree summer 2024 announcement also seems pretty plausible since we do already know of some 2024 games they can use to distract us all.
If it was Q1 2024 then that would mean Nintendo would've lied to their investors which doesn't go down well.
I'm far from an expert in Japan financial laws so take this with a bucket of salt but I'm not sure that's how that works. I would think the intent of such laws is to stop companies from misreporting the actual hard financial numbers. Forecast and projection would definitely be exempt and I'd think the timing of product launches would be included in that
With that said, I don't expect new hardware this FY (i.e. before March next year). It could happen but I don't expect it to. Though I do think an announcement before then is very likely and a release before mid next year is probable. My gut says announcement early next year with a release around April/May
I don't see a release this FY. With ToTK and Mario Wonder both launching in this current FY they won't need to shore up the figures in March in the way they did need those sales in March 2017.
Best to push those big early sales into the next FY. This also has the advantage that they won't need to announce anything (or see details inevitably leaked) before Christmas which is a big downside to a March release.
@FishyS You might be right, that's a perfectly feasible timeline. @JaxonH posted a few pages back about it not launching until 2025, which I think is less likely but also feasible. The only thing we can say with any confidence right now is nothing will be announced or released in 2023.
It will be interesting to see more production leaks, they are going to want a high number of units at launch, which will take a little while to produce.
I gave examples of what it could bring but you dismissed them as software ideas.
I have looked back through my past posts and I can't find the post in question. Refresh my memory, what ideas did you pitch that I said were "software ideas"?
Meanwhile the pie in the sky ideas you have raised re: VR, many of which did not require VR, are reasons for VR hardware.
They don't require VR technically but they work FAR better with VR. How many times do I have to explain the issues with living room space before you get it?
In terms of the Switch not having "portable games". That's basically a software issue. Obviously some games designed for 65" TVs would be odd on a 4" screen. But there are plenty of games that would scale well. Most 2D platformers for example
It's less of an issue with being able to process the games on a tiny screen and more of an issue with being able to see them well. Tiny details are harder to pick out on a 4" screen than a 65" screen. Now naturally, this is always going to be an issue with portables, but 4" is a bit too small for this. The Switch is about the right size to balance portability with vision concerns, they really shouldn't be making it much smaller than that. Making it foldable is a far better solution to the problem of it not fitting in your pocket.
One thing I haven't seen anyone mention is that Pokemon rumor where GameFreak was readying a patch to improve performance when Scarlet/Violet are played on yet-to-be-released Switch models. That rumor had a bunch of other info regarding DLC that all ended up correct, so I think it's safe to say this is correct or at least was correct back when it first spread.
So with that in mind, and coupled with the fact that we haven't had more powerful Nintendo hardware since 2017, I think we're gonna get at least an announcement of more powerful hardware by this time next year. Obviously a brand new successor is a fair bet, and I know many here have ruled out a "Switch Pro" given that next year will mark year 7 (when a successor is usually launched). But I still think a Switch Pro is entirely possible — a system that may not be quite a new successor power-wise but will help give the Switch more steam for a successor launch in year 8 or 9 or even 10. It sounds unlikely but remember Nintendo is still very much the only one in their space, many have tried to enter (Steam Deck, etc) but none have made anywhere near close to the sales of the Switch. They could very well afford to extend the Switch lifecycle similar to how they did the Game Boy — a time when they were also very dominant in their own space. This is especially possible given the financial situation many people are in at this time.
I think by the end of September if there are no hardware announcements of a system more powerful than OG Switch (so a Switch Lite OLED announcement wouldn't count), safe to say we're getting a brand new successor that will be announced at the latest by April 2024 (so by that fiscal meeting Nintendo can point to the successor for what's next — they would much rather have a flashy intro trailer than halfheartedly officially refer to it in a fiscal meeting). And now that we know Switch's 2023 will be packed, the successor if it's coming next year will almost certainly not be announced this year — any new hardware announced this year will be treated as the same family as the OG Switch.
@shadow-wolf
I've done this point to death but I think it's fair to say the successor vs revision thing is a blurry mess. There is a tendency for successors to come later and be more powerful than revisions but that's not always the case. Sometimes revisions don't bring new features or have exclusives but again, not always the case
For example the GBC, DSi and New 3DS were all bigger jumps in performance than the Wii was. Also there were more GBC only titles than most systems usually get and it released almost a decade after the GB. So yeah, much of a muchness IMO
What I am expecting is ~3X the power with some extra bits and pieces to aid with efficiency. And maybe some new features. But likely full BC and with the Switch as it is still supported for a bit. What we want to name this? Frankly I couldn't care less. Doesn't matter what you call it, what matters is what it does
@shadow-wolf@skywake I've been reading this thread the past couple of days and been meaning to post something about it beginning to feel more like a Switch Pro situation rather than a Next-gen situation, too.
The important distinction that I think is worth making is that when you talk of Switch 2 with full BC, does that necessarily mean Switch 1 will be able to run all the new games? Because that's what you get from a Switch Pro (odd exceptions not discounted, á la Xenoblade Chronicles on N3DS), so no-one would get left behind and developers would continue to have the 135+ million install base to sell to, while having additional performance capabilities in the Pro to offer enhanced features for if they choose. And to encourage things along, Nintendo would release Pro performance patches for a bunch of its games, hoping that third parties might do the same. They'd perhaps work specifically to get the most popular third-party games like Minecraft, Monster Hunter etc. to release specific Pro-focused patches.
I found this online and it 100% fake but I thought I’d post it here to entertain some people “ Nintendo Switch Wonder Launch Date: October 20 2023 $400 - 64 GB configuration $500 - 256 GB configuration + Super Mario Wonder game pack in
Super Mario Wonder will be Nintendos first native 4K game
Nintendo Switch Wonder console
New Joycons with Hall effect thumb sticks Joycons use magnets to attach themselves to the Switch 900p Oled touch screen Front facing camera, another one on the back side The Switch dock works without a Switch connected, but only to look at your game catalog/Switch eshop/apps like YouTube and Hulu Switch can connect wirelessly to the dock New Pro Controller with a small touch screen Og Switch cartridges can be inserted into the Switch Wonder for verification, but it requires a Internet connection to download a modified version of the game
Totk and Pokémon come with a day one patch that improve performance and reduce loading times. For Totk, the loading between shrines and the open world are completely removed.”
@shadow-wolf Regarding the Pokemon rumour you're referring to - it's a 4chan 'leak'. In other words treat with lot's of caution. IIRC, a lot of the Pokemon info about S&V was validated when the game was announced, but the leak only preceded announcement by a few days. The DLC info about new Pokemon is still to be proved. While the leak may end up being proved legit, it could well be that the pre-launch info was known to the leaker and the DLC info is just speculation with the 'Switch 2' patch reference just click bait. However if you do accept the patch story, that kinda contradicts any 'Switch Pro' narrative. I thought most people accepted the possibility of a 'Switch Pro' died with the release of the OLED model. I won't write anymore about it ...
While a few people are still holding a candle for a 2023 launch of a Switch 2, most of those seem to have a cut-off for the middle of this month. If you still think a new model is coming soon, then September is the next target date for an announcement. Otherwise most debate does seem to be about when in 2024 that will happen. Personally, I'm favouring an early Q1 announcement (ahead of DLCs), with much of the year being filled with Nintendo communication to explain what's new and what's staying the same (beyond accounts, which we know about).
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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread
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