Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@Slowdive
Obviously legalese so they cover all the bases, still interesting the sorts of bases they're touching on there. They specifically name drop Turing and Volta when talking about CUDA accelerated matrix calculations. Which probably means nothing. They also touch on using AI upscaling client side as part of a cloud streaming solution. i.e. the server would deliver a low-latency SD stream and your low-powered client device would upscale that to 1080p/1440p/4K

Interesting discussion about Switch2 rumours on Moores Law Is Dead last night ...

@TSR3 First off, no way the Switch successor will release before the chip shortage is resolved otherwise it would have been much smarter to release it when PS5 and XBoX SeXS released so it could compete. Releasing in the next year would be tantamount to giving up even remotely competing with Microsoft and Sony this generation. Secondly I doubt it'll release before the MK8D BCP is finished rolling out as Nintendo hasn't supported last generation consoles with new releases or DLC after the new console is released since the Super Nintendo, the exception being Zelda BoTW Season Pass, but only because it was a cross-generation launch title for Switch.

@TowaHerschel7
Bit to unpack here. For one the chip shortage isn't really a shortage and it's kinda a complicated beast. Mostly it's due to excessive demand for power efficient GPUs due to crypto as well as some other components due to COVID disruption (WFH) and a transition to EVs. All happening at once. It doesn't necessarily mean it's harder to produce Switch 2/Pro vs more Swtich. Whether Nintendo can produce enough units of new hardware will mostly depend on whether or not they can get their allocation of components......

And because they're a publicly traded company they have to disclose assets. Which this year included almost 70,000 million yen of raw components, about 7x the previous FY. This was in March. So fair to say they're not suffering from the component shortage

Secondly, Nintendo don't need to compete on spec with Sony and Microsoft to do well. They haven't bothered doing that since the Gamecube and two of those three generations have been their most profitable periods in their history. There's no reason for them to worry at all about what Microsoft or Sony's timeline is or bother to try and compete. They offer a different product

Lastly, your supposed precedents. I mean for one thing you're talking about the precedent of DLC not releasing with new hardware while citing an exception for it which also happens to be the only time Nintendo has done a generational shift from a platform that could have DLC. Secondly, precedents are only valid until they aren't. There are a lot of variables here so you could argue precedent for all sorts of scenarios.

For example I could say that since the release of the Gameboy the longest gap Nintendo has had between hardware releases was between the SNES and Virtual Boy (1703 days) and we're currently beyond that (1918 days). And even if you split into portable/non-portable we're getting pretty close to the longest gap (Wii -> Wii U @ 2192 days, DS -> 3DS @ 2283 days). New hardware has to come out within a year for the Switch to not be the longest shelf life for any Nintendo console. And maybe it doesn't, but if it doesn't it would be unprecedented. Which is my point. Precedents mean nothing

We know for a fact Nintendo has gathered a massive amount of materials compared to the years before. The chip shortage is also getting better due to crypto becoming non profitable for miners after the market tanking (Nvidia for example is reducing its orders). New production lines are opening up for the newer architectures as well, which will make more of the older ones available (which the Switch 2 is going to use).

Switch 2 will also be using a different production line for its SoC than the Switch, so if Nintendo keeps support for the regular Switch and doesn't market the Switch 2 initially as a complete replacement, it could actually help them fight against the shortage (tldr can produce more Switch 2 + Switch units than just Switch units).

Other effects of chip shortage, like BT chips etc, are already affecting Nintendo with the regular Switch, so it doesn't make a difference for a Switch 2.

As long as Nintendo has gathered enough materials to go through the initial launch, they should be good to go. Sure it will be hard to find one at times, but that was a problem with the regular Switch at times anyway even before the chip shortage.

Looking at Sony as an example, it is impossible to find a PS5, yet it sells as much as the PS4 did (and more) at the same period. Nintendo made more time for themselves to prepare for launch so they should be in a better position.

Another, longer, discussion on Moore's Law Is Dead about Switch 2 today ...

@TSR3 I honestly don't know how you can listen to anyone saying 'Nintendo don't care.' and they are being serious saying it. Honestly feel my IQ dipping with such vapid notions. And to suggest Nintendo just think 'what's out there, let's make it as cheap as possible' really lacks an appreciation for their vision for gaming and gameplay. Ah well. I didn't see too many Switch consoles before it released.

@TSR3 Okay firstly who are these people? Do they have any previous history on these kinds of things because I don’t believe they know anything about what Nintendo are releasing and when.

Just under 2 hours until we know whether these Pokemon trailer rumours were legit or not (Pokemon trailers tend to be uploaded at around 2PM most of the time, with the last SV trailer being a prime example).

I'm not in desperate need of a new trailer at the moment but I always like the buzz that comes from one, whether it be new Pokemon, characters or even the region name, it's always very exciting stuff.

Also, have we ever had trailers shadow dropped with no prior announcement before? Technically the Hisuian Zorua trailer was like that but that was moreso a teaser for the trailer to come a few days later. I feel like there might have been one like that for SwSh but I could be wrong.

Who is this account and why is everyone suddenly tweeting about them? Are they supposed to be credible or something?

I was thinking.
When the people's in game company working on the next generation consoles, they are already know first, they have the 1st hand experience but they have to shut their mouth not to leak the secret until the announcement day.
Imagine in their daily life when they are still working on making the next gen consoles and their kids or spouse are curious about that secret project.

@Slowdive Managing expectations either sounds like a remake/remaster or a mobile game. So I’m curious, but also when the game would be announced.

Or their nieces and nephews

@Anti-Matter There's quite a few jobs like that. In this situation, at least they don't know state secrets!!

I'd say most job have some element of that. Either for the company itself or their clients. Just most companies don't have a global audience of fans hanging off every job listing and employee twitter account

.... A new genre of game?

@BruceCM The Death Stranding of Futuristic Racers 😉

Well, I was thinking more along the lines of existing 'management' types of games, @FragRed .... But if you make your version, show us

Managing Expectations the game? Port of Watch Dogs on Switch confirmed!

"No hardware this fiscal year."

Well, I suppose that means no Switch Lite 5G until after March 2023 then.