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Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

Posts 1,941 to 1,960 of 4,145

skywake

Magician wrote:

I'm still thoroughly convinced that even a late 2024 release for a new Nintendo generation of hardware is too soon. Especially for a platform that's still selling roughly 20m consoles every year. You don't...release...new hardware...while you still have the #1 selling console on the market. Business wise, it would make zero sense to do so. No, 2025...at the earliest.

If you're a company you don't really care about what your competition is doing or where you are in relation to them sales wise. You look at your own numbers and worry about how you can maximise your own profits. And for Nintendo, this is the graph that matters

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html
Untitled

The Switch IS past its peak. It just is. No discussion to be had. The solution to hardware being past its peak in this game? New hardware to drum up more interest. Simple

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Magician

@skywake I think it's fair to say that the 3/2021 figure for hardware sales was boosted by Animal Crossing NH. Absent of that, hardware sales are still on an upward trajectory, not downward. No sir. I stand firm on 2025. (Although I wouldn't mind being proven wrong. I want a hardware refresh like everyone else.)

Switch Physical Collection - 1,241 games (as of March 23rd, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

skywake

@Magician
The software sales line here is 230mill units, Animal Crossing moved 38mill of which ~30mill was in the 2021 FY. If you remove those numbers from these software totals it works out at around....

2019: 118mill
2020: 168mill (+50mill)
2021: 230mill - 30mill = 200mill (+32mill)
2022: 235mill - 8 mill = 227mill (+27mill)

Momentum is slowing even when you exclude AC. But I see no reason why you'd exclude it, it's kinda arbitrary. Nintendo wouldn't care that they had one hit that boosted the numbers for one year. They'd want to see continued growth. Which is actually....

2019: 118mill
2020: 168mill (+50mill)
2021: 230mill (+62mill)
2022: 235mill (+5mill)

.... looking like it won't be with the Switch

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Magician

Nothing a BotW 2 themed Switch OLED Lite can't alleviate.

Switch Physical Collection - 1,241 games (as of March 23rd, 2024)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay

TSR3

@Magician There is a business sense for releasing new hardware in the next year or so. While the Switch still has momentum and interest in the market is a great time to build on that momentum. Releasing a new model in a couple of years or more risks releasing into a market with waning interest in the Switch brand (kinda like how the Wii U came out out a couple of years too late to capitalise on interest in the Wii)

TSR3

GrailUK

@TSR3 Yep. You are right. Previously when Nintendo had multiple consoles, they had the safety net / luxury of riding one while the other was in decline. Now they only have one console (albeit a family) they need to keep up momentum without dropping the ball much like a mobile phone brand. Each upgrade needs to be more meaningful than the last. The specs boost is a given, but I think it will need other stuff too. Like analogue triggers. That sort of thing. Oh and games. And if folk have had dev kits for as long as some insiders have suggested, it sounds like Nintendo know what they are doing.

Edited on by GrailUK

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

Switch FC: SW-0287-5760-4611

Budda

@Slowdive
From what I can find a Special Edition for a 3DS XL was about 9 month prior to the release of the New 3DS.
Announcing a "new" Switch just right after a Special Edition OLED was released is just a bad idea. And if it's releasing this holiday even more. If it releases next year that would hurt holiday sales. Therefore if there is a new system, they would announce it next year not September.

Laugh Hard, Run Fast, Be Kind

TSR3

@GrailUK Analogue Triggers? That's so obvious they'll never do it! I did suggest some new features they could use at the end of last year, but I never thought of analogue triggers 😳
I think Nintendo have got the games side of things covered. They must be close to regularly hitting a 1st or 2nd party release every month at the moment? Compare that to Sony or Microsoft's own output this year! While they don't have a 2nd console to fall back on, they're certainly reaping the benefit of consolidating their handheld and home console efforts.

TSR3

RR529

A 3D screen.

It's totally not gonna happen, but I want a 3D screen.

Currently Playing:
Switch - Blade Strangers
PS4 - Kingdom Hearts III, Tetris Effect (VR)

Okami1

@res1080p (by complete accident I changed the link to the other Switch thread but this fit here)

My thoughts Nintendo is probably mixed about this.

dysgraphia awareness human

res1080p

@Kermit1 it will be interesting to see if nintendo even reacts to this at all.

res1080p

Okami1

@res1080p yea, they don't take down videos for portable Wii's. Who knows?

dysgraphia awareness human

skywake

Budda wrote:

From what I can find a Special Edition for a 3DS XL was about 9 month prior to the release of the New 3DS. Announcing a "new" Switch just right after a Special Edition OLED was released is just a bad idea. And if it's releasing this holiday even more. If it releases next year that would hurt holiday sales. Therefore if there is a new system, they would announce it next year not September.

They announced the Gameboy Micro after the DS had launched, and the new 2DS after the Switch launched. And those were entirely new SKUs not cosmetic revisions. I expect the release of the Switch Pro/Switch 2/Switch Whatever will not mean we stop getting regular Switch SKU releases, and certainly not new colours/editions. At least for a couple of years

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Budda

@skywake
Yes: After they launched.
They where not misleading or something. And when we are talking about the Switch, Nintendo released the Mario edition month and month before they released the OLED. Same like they did with the last 3DS XL special edition and the the New 3DS.

Laugh Hard, Run Fast, Be Kind

skywake

@Budda
The GBA SP backlight revision released within months of the DS reveal. I myself picked up the relatively popular Zelda SKU of the 3DS XL which came out less than a year before the New 3DS was announced. Also I'm fairly sure there would've been not much gap at all between the Pikachu Edition GBC and the GBA announcement. I get your point but historically I don't think Nintendo has been that concerned about people getting "burned" on late limited edition hardware.....

Also if Nintendo did reveal new hardware this year it's not like anyone would be super shocked by it. Rumours or not, people are primed for new hardware at this point. It wouldn't be a shock.

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

NinChocolate

@skywake it wouldn’t be a shock because Nintendo has regularly put out more revisions, special editions, variants/price tiers than anyone in the business. Their engineering to manufacturing channel is efficient enough that they have no problem kicking out new hardware to boost a fiscal year. So if they’re marketing to those inclined to buy the premium Oled with a new special edition, nobody should be surprised if they also put something out to target and entice the lower-tier buyer, or the handheld focussed buyer. I say Nintendo is now in a position to really start running it’s Switch business similarly to when it sold separate home and portable consoles. Because the Lite line is now prime to tack on some new features while maintaining it’s price tier. And potentially they can then continue to sell it as Switch-gen 1 and at the same time roll out NSW-gen 2, whenever that happens. If they make all NSW-gen 2 launch games compatible with NSW-gen 1, they can probably push through the supply constraints (and possible recession purchasing shifts) selling everything they’ve developed in hardware and software with some cadence.

NinChocolate

skywake

I'd argue the Switch right now is kinda analogous to the Wii in early 2011. Technically software sales are at a peak but hardware sales are down by ~20%, which is about where the Wii was at that point. And while the Switch's demographic and "gimmick" is pretty different to the Wii's competitors are starting to move into that space. Even if not at the same volumes (Steam Deck vs Kinect)

And honestly I think they're going to make basically the same play they did back then. With a few changes. Relatively soon we'll get some kind of announcement, I expect the delay between announcement and release will be shorter because that's just how it works now. Nintendo will leverage the Switch branding enough that people think it's just another Switch. Which at least this time will be more accurate a description than it was with the Wii U. And as soon as it's announced sales of the current Switch will tank

But I think @NinChocolate is probably right on the one key difference. The current Switch will probably live on for a while as a budget SKU that continues to get support. And the main reason that can work is because I don't think the gap between the Switch and whatever is next, at least from a developer perspective, will be that dramatic. Especially for simpler titles.

I would be surprised (then again, Nintendo be Nintendo so maybe not) if the eShop doesn't carry over to the new hardware and on day 1 you just have the Switch library sitting there. Completely transparently. Encouraging people who make simpler titles to just continue releasing games for "Switch". And maybe allowing publishers to "stack" versions, even if the titles don't natively scale, so that people can just get the new version for the new hardware. But maybe that makes too much sense for Nintendo

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

Grumblevolcano

@skywake To me it feels more like 3DS in early 2016, there's a lot going on with the software front but at the same time new hardware is looming. 2016 1st party 3DS lineup was:

  • Mario & Luigi Paper Jam
  • Fire Emblem Fates
  • Mario & Sonic 2016 Olympics
  • Hyrule Warriors Legends
  • Mini Mario & Friends amiibo Challenge
  • Kirby Planet Robobot
  • Rhythm Heaven Megamix
  • Metroid Prime Federation Force
  • Style Savvy Fashion Forward
  • Picross 3D Round 2
  • Yokai Watch 2
  • Mario Party Star Rush
  • Pokemon Sun/Moon
  • Super Mario Maker

You also had major updates/DLC like Corrin and Bayonetta in Smash, New Leaf Welcome amiibo update, etc. meanwhile 3rd party had some major releases like Monster Hunter Generations.

Meanwhile Wii in 2011 was gigantic game droughts, don't know how 3DS in 2016 compares on the sales side of things though.

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

skywake

@Grumblevolcano
Sales wise the 3DS doesn't really match the Switch much at all. The best year for the 3DS in terms of sales was 2012 and outside of a slight bump in 2016 sales dropped every single year after that. And it was 2018 when sales fell right off a cliff. Of course it played out slightly differently in different regions (there's a reason why the New 3DS launched first in Japan) but overall it peaked pretty early with a long tail

Also from a raw business perspective. There's a lot 2011 and not a lot 2016 about the position Nintendo generally find themselves in right now. Of course the Wii U does play a large role in that but either way. This is very late Wii in terms of what this looks like in the spreadsheets

Untitled

Edited on by skywake

Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
"Don't stir the pot" is a nice way of saying "they're too dumb to reason with"

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