Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Bolt_Strike So your core argument is that the lack of support (DLC) since release is because Nintendo released it to keep fans happy whilst they worked on the sequel...I think that's a completely valid argument, I just don't think your timeline is correct. I just found an article from July 2018 stating it has just passed 10 million copies sold, it's now at almost 25 million copies, so almost 15 million copies sold in under 2 years and it's still on the best seller lists worldwide.

The question is how well would MK9 sell? Lets say there is a core fan base of 5 million, of the 20 million more casual fans, how many would buy a copy when they already have the great MK8D? Plus how many of the 30 million switch owners who don't own MK8D would buy a copy of it or MK9? Nintendo is a business listed on the stock market, so I don't see how MK9 would shift enough units to justify prioritising it over other game development to impact their financial performance.

I'm actually changing my mind a bit on when I think it would release, originally I said on the switch at Christmas 2022, now I think it might be a launch title on whatever we see after the switch, which based on Nintendo saying the switch is only halfway through its lifespan, is probably 2023 or even 2024.

I dunno if I buy that release data. But Prime Trilogy itself has been confirmed by like 4 independent sources at this point, so I'm 99% sure it's coming this year.
Also just because it makes sense to have it before Prime 4 comes out.

@MarioBrickLayer Wasn't that the exact same retailer that kicked off everyone thinking MPT was a thing in the first place?

@MarioBrickLayer That's only one pillar in my core argument. My core argument is:

1. A Mario Kart game has released on Nintendo hardware every 2 or 3 years for the last 20 years.
2. Nintendo loves utilizing its hardware to come up with unique gameplay mechanics, and has not yet done so for Mario Kart having only had a port.
3. 8D has not received any DLC updates that would keep fans engaged throughout the Switch's lifespan.

As far as the timeline goes, they'll probably have started their next project just after 8D and ARMS released, so that 2018 article might not have any bearing on their decision. They probably decided which game to make based on 2017 sales, not 2018 and beyond.

Really though, how well it sells compared to 8D doesn't really matter as much as how well it sells compared to other alternatives. No, it's probably not going to come close to the 25 million that 8D sold, but that's an insane number that almost no other game could hope to reach anyway. But Mario Kart 9 will almost certainly trounce ARMS 2 which everyone is suggesting instead, ARMS only sold 2.1 million, a mere 10% of what MK8D sold, and you think that would get priority? There's only one way ARMS 2 gets made before Mario Kart 9, and that's if they have better ideas for what to do with ARMS 2 than MK9. Otherwise, the sales are much worse and all of the concerns people have with 9 cannibalizing 8D also apply to ARMS 2 cannibalizing ARMS, so there's really no other reason for it to have priority.

@Bolt_Strike The key piece of information to all of this, which Nintendo would never share, is what are their projected sales for MK8D for the next two years, MK9 would have to sell enough to beat that projection, pay back the development cost and give them a big enough uplift in sales to justify putting developers on MK9 rather than something else. If Nintendo, for example, think MK8D is going to hit 30 million copies sold (currently 24.8m) by, say the end of 2021, then I think they would hold off on releasing MK9.

Why kill off a cash cow? Development has long since been paid off, they must be making a big margin on each copy sold now.

I think you're right that MK9 was in development a few years back (2017), but given how well MK8D has been sellng since release, I'm willing to bet they paused development in late 2018 to work on something else.

@MarioBrickLayer It's not that simple. Again, you have to consider what the alternative would sell. Yes, MK8D would probably keep selling, but would it sell enough to cover the difference between MK9 and any alternative? Probably not. I expect MK9 to hit about 10 million while ARMS 2 probably would sell about ARMS 1's 2.1 million, maybe even less. So even hitting 30 million wouldn't be enough. You have to look at MK8D sales + MK9 sales vs. MK8D sales + sales of whatever else they decide.

As amazing as a surprise Prime Trilogy release would be, I don't trust a release date less than a month away. They play their cards close to their chest, but hopefully not that close lol. But this year? I really really hope so.

Really wish they would have directs, especially an E3 one (if they can't have a host...then just show a video game trailer montage), announcing games out of the blue (a couple of months ahead of the release)...really freaks me out.

@Bolt_Strike I think there's a piece to the puzzle you're forgetting. Neither MK9 not ARMS 2 is likely to move that many additional consoles. I'd expect them to try and release something that currently is a gap in the system's library. After all, if you release say, Pikmin 4, and it generates 1 million more consoles sales, each of those is on average likely to buy an additional 5 or so games (I forget the attach rate) that they wouldn't have otherwise.

Basically, because Nintendo is selling an ecosystem, their (relatively) smaller IPs tend to be more important than sequels.

Unrelated, but it occurs to me we'll probably get a main series Kirby game this year, something I've seen no one mention in their predictions (mostly people say just 2D Metroid, Prime Trilogy and 3D Mario). The largest gap between main Kirby titles was Dream Land 3 to Crystal Shards at just under 3 years, which was their first foray into 3D and had a troubled development. We'll be at 2.75 years years by the end of 2020, so I'm betting we'll see Kirby in either September, October, or worst case scenario next March. Though, the last one was also the first to have post release content, so there is a chance development wasn't occurring in parallel.

I'm still thinking the planned schedule for major exclusives and Nintendo published titles was something like:
Jan: TMS#FE
Feb: Fire Emblem DLC
Mar: Animal Crossing / Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
Apr: That Nintendo published office game
May: Xenoblade Chronicles
June: 51 Worldwide Games / Isle of Armor
July: Paper Mario: The Oragami King / Bravely Default II (delayed to August)
August: Pikmin 3 or 3D World (On track)
Sept: No More Heroes 3 (Delayed to Nov) / Kirby main series title (On track?)
Oct: New 2D Metroid by MercurySteam (On track?)
Nov: Pokemon DLC 2 (On track?) / Planned Holiday title (BotW or Odyssey 2 perhaps?, Delayed to March 2021)
Dec: Nothing

@link3710 Between Star Allies getting post launch support and the Switch being a HD system, I'm thinking 2022 for the next mainline Kirby game. HD slows everything down.

@link3710 IPs that only have a port or remake can also draw in more console sales, players that bought the original may be less inclined to buy the console for a game they've already played but a new game might convince them. So Wii U players that already played Mario Kart 8 or outsiders that are looking for more than just a port could be convinced to buy a Switch for a full Mario Kart 9. And there's probably more of those than there are fans of the smaller IPs like Pikmin or whatever else you would have them make (does the Mario Kart team even make Pikmin?).

As for Kirby, I do think a Kirby game is coming soon. Just not this year. It has been a bit since Star Allies, but I suspect the reason why Kirby's been silent for a while is because it's finally making the jump to 3D. The signs are there, they've been dabbling in making Kirby 3D lately between 3D Rumble/Blowout Blast and the final boss of Star Allies. I think they might be ready to go full 3D with the next game. Because it's a 3D game and therefore more intensive, I think it won't release until at least 2021.

@Grumblevolcano I doubt it's 2022. Kirby games on the same system always reuse assets and engines (see Robobot / Triple Deluxe, all the GBA titles, or all the DS titles), in order to speed up development. 2021 at the latest, unless Bolt Strike is right about them finally going full 3D. But quite frankly, if they are going full 3D, I expect a remake game to be released in the meantime, likely a Crystal Shards remake as the Star Allies engine is perfectly suited for that, and a huge amount of the work is already done in terms of environments and modelling. This is especially true since it could've gotten off the ground and into heavy development almost immediately, while the 3D game was still in the planning stages. So either way, I expect a main series title this year or next, even if it's a remake.

@Bolt_Strike Team's don't exist in the way people suggest. Nintendo's departments have become far more fluid in the past 5 years since the merging of EAD and SPD, and the merging of portable and home divisions. It's really just the producers people latch onto. And that said, I used Pikmin as an example, I don't think that's what they'd put Hideki Konno on Pikmin at all.

He's the man who's directed every single Mario Kart title. And looking at his resume, he's worked on basically every mobile game that's come out from Nintendo, making it quite unlikely he's been on a Mario Kart game as well. The only other man who'd be likely to head it up, Tadashi Sugiyama, left the company. So if Mario Kart 9 is in development, it's being developed by a producer and director, likely with a new team. Which isn't a bad thing in my book if it is the case, the series could use some fresh blood.

@link3710 I would love a Crystal Shards remake, it was my first Kirby game and I love the combo ability system and there's so much more they could do with a remake. Sadly though, it doesn't seem to be a very popular game. I don't really see a lot of people say they like it or want a remake, so there may not be enough demand to justify it.

Option C if they need more time for the 3D game could be that they make a smaller experimental type of game. Think Canvas Curse/Rainbow Curse, Epic Yarn, or Mass Attack, something that vaguely plays similar to the main series but with a completely different playstyle.

@link3710 I think Nintendo's N64 games in general are going to be a case of just put it on NSO (I do think DK64 will skip NSO like the DKC trilogy has been skipped though). My guess is if there's a Kirby port/remaster/remake bridging the gap between Star Allies and the next mainline game it would be something like a port of Rainbow Curse.

@Grumblevolcano Can Rainbow Curse even work on the Switch? That game used the touchscreen quite heavily and I can't see it working well with the analog stick or motion controls. I don't think that game would translate well.

@Grumblevolcano Crystal Shards was just an example. They could do a remake of Dream Land 2 or 3 as well, or even Amazing Mirror.

But Kirby always has a number of projects cooking at any given time, so if there's a 3D game then that's not all they're working on. It may be spinoffs til then, or it may be a remake. I'm just leaning toward the latter.

With all those Amazon listings appearing, I think we may get a Direct Mini the week after Clubhouse Games launches. Something like:

• Starts off with Pokemon Sword/Shield expansion pass
• Headlines
• Spotlight for Paper Mario The Origami King (around the same length as Bravely Default II's spotlight in March)
• More headlines
• Finish with the ARMS character reveal and if there's ARMS news attached (e.g. if the Smash character isn't already in ARMS), it follows the Smash reveal

@Grumblevolcano Didn't they already do a long trailer/direct just for the expansion passes fairly recently? A simple release trailer is all that will be needed as and when both expansions launch. Also with Paper Mario, they could just do a smaller game specific long in depth trailer or Direct nearer the time. I personally don't think Nintendo actually needs to do Directs as much as people want to believe they do. Just look at how crazy the internet went, when Nintendo shadow dropped the Paper Mario trailer out of the blue.

Yeah, I think with them shadow dropping Paper Mario and still getting a ton of press, they can just continue doing that until the quarantine ends. The only Direct I could possibly see them doing otherwise is a Mario Direct to announce the remasters (and maybe some extra goodies like a 3D World port and/or Odyssey 2).

After The Origami King precedent, I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised if we didn’t get another traditional Direct this year. Which would be a shame.