Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@skywake I'm not sure that Metroid Prime is a series that'll sell systems like Zelda was though. Metroid overall isn't like your Mario or Zelda, or even up there with games like Animal Crossing. It has appeal, but not as much as other series that would make a big splash for the launch of a new console. It also just feels like Metroid Prime 4 has gone through Dev hell, and I'd be surprised if we hear about it any time soon.

@VoidofLight
Two things. Firstly the game effectively started development in 2019 so it's not surprising that we haven't heard that much about it yet. Especially given how tightly Nintendo holds their cards. And even moreso if a decision has been made to make it a "Switch 2" game, whatever that ends up meaning

Secondly I'm talking about launch games. Games, plural. A console doesn't sell on one title on day 1, it sells on a library of content over a period of time. We know Metroid Prime 4 is deep in development, we have a fair degree of confidence that there's new hardware next year. Those two things probably align. So why wouldn't it be a launch title?

Surely Metroid Prime 4 AND a new 3D Mario or something is a better launch than just a new 3D Mario

@skywake I just don't see it as a launch year title. We haven't heard anything about it since it started development. Not even an update that things are going smoothly with the game itself, which Nintendo provided when TotK kept getting delayed over and over again. There'll be more games next year when the next big console launches, I'm sure, but I just doubt Prime 4 is going to be one of those titles. Especially given that again, Metroid isn't a massive system selling game, and only the first game is remastered on Switch. Numbered titles generally scare off people from wanting to play a game in most cases, since they feel like if the others aren't easily accessible, they'll end up missing context or large plot points.

Remember, not all consoles launch with a killer game.

• GC launched with Luigi's Mansion
• Wii U with NSMBU
• PS2 with FantaVision for crying out loud
• PS3 with Resistance Fall of Man
• XBox Series X had nothing except enhanced versions of older games

Not saying the Switch's successor will launch without any new games, Nintendo never does that, but its first killer app might not release until a couple of months later. It's happened before.

That's true. I just don't expect Prime 4 to release for a while. I truly feel like we would've heard something about it by now if it was going to release.

@Stamina_Wheel
Sure, but they weren't system sellers and that was the topic at hand.

@Aioniomios With NSMBU, Nintendo did oversaturate NSMB style close to that game. You had:

• NSMBWii (2009)
• Galaxy given the NSMB treatment (2010) [Galaxy 2]
• NSMB 3D (2011) [3D Land]
• NSMB2 (2012)
• NSMBU (2012)
• NSLU (2013)
• NSMB 3D 2 (2013) [3D World]

If there were fewer NSMB style Mario platformers, NSMBU would've stood out more.

@Grumblevolcano
Very true. At that point nobody cared about New Super Mario anymore.
Edit: I wouldn't compare Galaxy 2, 3D Land and 3D World with the NSMB games though. To me, they're very different.

@Grumblevolcano Just wait for Mario Wonder 3-X Deluxe in a few years.

@VoidofLight I'm guessing you probably felt the same way about Bayonetta 3, Detective Pikachu Returns, and SMT V prior to their rereveals.

It's only been 4 years since the game restarted development, which is inline with AAA development standards.

No, an "average take" would be that the 'Switch 2' is right around the corner just as it has been since 2019 (though they called it the 'Switch Pro' then - very creative!). There was smoke (internet rumours) but it turned out to be about as real as Star Fox Grand Prix, Pokémon Stars, the Switch Smash 4 port, Zelda missing the Switch launch date, the Retro Studios mystery project, Metroid Prime Trilogy for Switch, and the late 2023 Switch game drought (NL published an article where their content staff unanimously agreed there wouldn't be a June Direct, but shamelessly scrubbed it from their website).

https://www.nintendolife.com/tags/switch-pro

Console cycles are getting longer (Sony and Microsoft's last couple consoles lasted 7-8 years), graphics are about as good as they're ever going to get, Switch games (which are more profitable than hardware) continue to do well in the charts, and Nintendo went 10 years before the Game Boy got even a hardware upgrade (12 years before the true successor came out). And if we look at the 4 modern Nintendo home consoles, they go years between announcing the new console and releasing it:

Gamecube - 'Dolphin' announced May 1999, Gamecube officially unveiled in August 2000 for launch in late 2001.

Wii - 'Nintendo Revolution' announced in June 2004, Wii unveiled in April 2006 for release in November 2006.

Wii U - Announced and revealed in April/June 2011, released in November 2012.

Switch - 'NX' announced in April 2015, launch date revealed in April 2016, named the Switch in October 2016, launched March 2017.

So late 2024 for the next system is possible, but there's usually at least 2 years between the earliest announcement (which hasn't happened) and the release of the console. More realistic would be 2025 or later, if ever.

Super Smash Bros. Melee, the best-selling Gamecube game, was supposed to be a launch title but got delayed a couple weeks (Sakurai likes everything to be just right, of course). It came out in the same holiday season. For all intents and purposes, it was a Gamecube launch title.

The Wii U is a perfect example of what not to do. 2D Mario makes sense as a launch title (it worked for the NES and SNES), but it was a poor choice for the Wii U because three other 2D Mario games that look exactly the same as it were released right before it. As such, the Wii U was seen as just a Wii but with very slightly better graphics (so most people just stuck with the Wii). It would've gone better if Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Maker had launched with the console. A good example of why having a solid launch lineup is essential and releasing a new console just for the sake of having a new console (hoping to ride on the coattails of the previous system) is a bad idea.

I agree.

@IceClimbers For detective pikachu, yeah. SMT V also did go through Dev hell, so that's a bad example, and Detective Pikachu also seemingly went through dev hell given the whole thing with them using only Gen 8 pokemon.

@Euler
I will not worry too much about which game will be the launch title as I don't really care the big hitter games.
I don't care with Metroid Prime 4.
I don't care with new Zelda games.
I don't care with AAA Western games.
I don't care with Smash Bros games.
I have very low interest with 2D / 3D Mario, Kirby, Pikmin games.
I only care with the games that matched with my interest and mostly they are 3rd party kids games, the underrated / unpopular games.

I know you play some games on PlayStation 4/5. What third party games do you think would be good on a more powerful Switch 2? People were talking about first-Party launch titles, but there will certainly be some third party games which takes advantage of the Switch 2 hardware either at launch or in the launch year.

@FishyS
Like I said before, I prefer more 3rd party kids games than 1st party Nintendo games as they have more diversity in genre and gameplay style.

Considering my Top 3 genre are Life Sim, Rhythm and Farming sim games, I will get impressed more from those games like Fae Farm, Paleo Pines, God of Rock, Harvest Moon the Winds of Anthos, etc.

I think more farming sim and Rhythm games will looks better on Switch 2 as I really want something like DDR or Beatmania IIDX on modern consoles.

I have low interest with 1st party Nintendo games unless they are Animal Crossing New Horizons, ARMS, 1-2-Switch, Mii games as my biggest hype 1st party Switch games so I will not thinking or get really excited that much by majority of 1st party Nintendo games as they are lacked in genre diversity that I get impressed more from 3rd party games.

Even I didn't really feel excited by Super Mario Wonder as 2D platformer games was my least favorite genre unless they are 3rd party games with something different.

As for 3rd party games on Switch 2, I don't want to see code in box, partial download, streaming only practice anymore as the excuses due to the limitation of Switch 2 hardware.
I will turned off by games with dirty business practice like that and I will get the PS4 / PS5 version instead if I keep finding those dirty business practice on Switch 2.

@Euler
I like how you ignored the majority of my post and went back to prosecuting the arguments from 2021 when people sniffed (correctly) that new hardware was on the way. But if you really do want to prosecute that case lets breifly go over it. This is what we had in 2021:

• Rumours that Nintendo was acquiring OLED screens for new hardware
• Rumours that there were "4K capable" development kits

That was it. This is what we have heard since the OLED released:

• When the OLED released it was noticed that the Dock supports HDMI 2.0, for seemingly no reason
• Leak from NVidia confirming the existence of the T239 SoC
• Updates to the Linux Kernel adding support for the T239, also some technical details that confirm it's a custom chip that has been optimised for performance per W (i.e. it's a large custom order for a Tegra SoC designed for a portable device)
• Leaked source code from NVidia for an "NVN2" SDK
• DF claims that "Switch Pro" was a thing but the project was shelved
• Leak from Pokemon which accurately predicts the direct but also says they are "working on a patch" for the next hardware
• Ubisoft when talking about Sparks of Hope said they would "update for the new machine"
• Sharp announced to investors that they have a significant contract to produce LCDs for a "new console"
• Further leaks suggest that "key partners" have dev kits and that the console will have an LCD screen and accept cartridges

So yes, at this point I think you're a bit foolish to be still having your fingers in your ears. Also I think it's worth addressing the second part of your post. Again. Why would Prime 4 be a poor launch title? A good launch title is the title that you have available for launch. Nothing more. The more of those you can get generally the better the launch is. The Switch launch wasn't exceptional just because it had BotW. It was exceptional because they followed it up almost immediately with Mario Kart 8, Arms and Splatoon 2

If, as the current evidence would suggest, we're getting new hardware in the second half of next year? They probably want a big AAA game to release alongside it. At this very moment there really aren't that many known AAA games Nintendo is working on that aren't releases for the end of this year. Infact there are really only two. Metroid Prime 4 and that Peach game. I think we can probably agree that Prime 4 would be a better showpiece title

And again, to say this for the third time, I'm not saying Prime 4 is the perfect launch title. I'm not saying that they can launch with Prime 4 and then just have nothing else for the platform for months. What I'm saying is that Prime 4 would make a solid addition to a launch lineup. And without any other information, and with Nintendo being radio silent on Prime, I think it's a pretty safe bet to think it might be

And, to be blunt, what else can it realistically be if this new hardware is indeed next year? It won't be a new 3D Zelda title, way too soon for that. It could be Mario Kart 9 but it probably won't be a new Smash Bros. Splatoon I think is unlikely given they're doing DLC for 3 ATM. Animal Crossing is possible but, I'd argue, worse than Prime as a title to promote a graphical upgrade. Of the games that could hit harder than Prime I think the only real contender is a new 3D Mario..... which is of course another rumour. And if you had Prime AND Mario on day 1? Hell, that's a very solid launch

I wonder if a remaster of Prime 2 would cut the multiplayer content or use it as an opportunity to boost interest in NSO. It's something that came to mind after the Red Dead Redemption port cut the multiplayer content (it's single player only).

@skywake Nintendo pairs up single player focused with multiplayer focused for launch (giving 1 example of each):

• Switch - BotW and 1-2-Switch
• Wii U - NSMBU and Nintendo Land (NSMBU does have local co-op but it's more of a single player game)
• Wii - Twilight Princess and Wii Sports
• GCN - Luigi's Mansion and Wave Race Blue Storm
• 3DS - Pilotwings Resort and Steel Diver
• DS - Super Mario 64 DS and Metroid Prime Hunters demo (the demo was mostly multiplayer)
• GBA - Super Mario Advance and F-Zero Maximum Velocity

Prime 4 + 3D Mario isn't really a suitable launch lineup because there's no multiplayer.

@Grumblevolcano
Well for one thing both 3D Mario and Metroid could have multiplayer elements. Metroid has had it before, you just mentioned two examples, and with Mario there's 3D World which was built around it

Secondly I wouldn't put too much stock in precedents and patterns. Note that your pattern doesn't really hold for N64, SNES, NES or Gameboy and you had to reach a bit for DS. If anything this pattern is more a reflection of the fact that party games are easier to push out and make decent filler

But again, even if this was a thing, what would stop them doing a 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4 and a throw away party game? There's no scenario where a launch lineup is worse due to the inclusion of Prime 4

@skywake With DS, those were the only 1st party launch titles. Later launches in different regions had more but there were also more clear options like Japan/EU had Pokemon Dash as a multiplayer launch game. GB and NES also had multiplayer games at launch though SNES and N64 does break the streak so the statement holds accurate as every system released after the N64.

While they could add multiplayer to the next 3D Mario or Prime 4, that seems too risky. I mean look at the reception to Federation Force for example, that's what happens when there's a long gap followed by multiplayer being the focus in a single player franchise.