Topic: Anyone Else Concerned with Nintendo's First Party Output Recently?

So the Direct has come and gone and to some this Direct has felt... underwhelming. And part of this is because Nintendo did not have anything equivalent to an E3 Direct and they shifted their expectations onto this one. But thinking about Nintendo's current situation... it feels like this has been a common theme for a while. Fans have been waiting for big games to be announced, Nintendo announces their Directs and everyone expects said big announcements to be there, and the Direct happens and what we get is... not quite as big as expected. And it feels like this has been the case not just for this year, but for the last several years, and I'm starting to get concerned about Nintendo's output.

Now there's a couple of factors to consider here. For one, fans always tend to hype Directs up to unreasonable levels to the point where Nintendo couldn't possibly satisfy them. Every Direct you see commenters wanting every game under the sun and it's mostly all unrealistic (how many times have we seen a commenter saying they want a new F-Zero or Star Fox or Mother 3 or something?). And there's also the pandemic, which had thrown off their schedule. But I don't think that tells the whole story. The pandemic mainly shut things down in 2020, by 2021 the world had mainly adapted to working under pandemic conditions and things were starting to get back to normal. But the pandemic was almost 3 years ago so that's losing credibility as an excuse, most if not all of what they were working on when the pandemic hit should be ready by now. As for the high expectations, before the pandemic the Switch's lineup was pretty strong, especially in 2017 and 2019. But post-pandemic it feels like we have an almost Wii U-esque drought of games, and especially with Nintendo's major IPs that feel like they should have something ready by now based on how long ago their last release was. Let's look at a few of those IPs more in depth.

So first there's 3D Mario. The last major 3D Mario game was Mario Odyssey in 2017. That was 5 years ago. We did have 3D All Stars and 3D World + Bowser's Fury in 2020/2021, but I doubt that took them much time to develop, probably a year or two at most. Everyone is expecting an Odyssey 2 because it sold extremely well and because BotW got a sequel as well, but if they were working on Odyssey 2 (and I believe they are), they should be using the same engine as Odyssey 1 so it shouldn't take them too long. With that in mind, shouldn't we have seen Odyssey 2 by now?

Similarly, there's the already announced Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. Unlike Odyssey, we already know about this game and when it's coming out. But it still feels like it took a bit longer than usual and we still don't know enough for a AAA IP. If it's running on BotW's engine, why did it take 6 years to develop? Now Zelda games typically get delays and we know about this game, so I'm less upset about this one, but still, this is another situation where it feels like Nintendo's giving us too little too late.

Then there's Mario Kart. The last major Mario Kart game was MK8D in 2017, again 5-6 years ago. Since then? Mario Kart Tour, a mobile game that probably did not take much development time. Home Circuit, which probably took more effort from Velan Studios in getting the AR gameplay to work than the Mario Kart team in getting the game's assets to work. And now the Booster Course pack, which is just Tour ports. Does that seem like 5-6 years worth of work? I'm pressing X to doubt on this one. It feels like they should have a full $60 retail release ready by now. Remember before this drought they were reliably releasing Mario Kart games every 3 years, so they should've had a new Mario Kart ready in 2020 (or 2021 because of the pandemic). Yet here we are staring down a drought of $60 retail Mario Kart games lasting at least 7 years (when the Booster Course pack is set to end) which would be the longest drought in series history. Now even if they didn't want to release 9 because it would cannibalize with 8D, they still could've released a $60 game that provided a very different experience from 8D to avoid that. I'm partial to having a Forza Horizons/Diddy Kong Racing type of experience, but anything new and of substance would've sufficed, but we didn't get that.

Then there's Metroid Prime 4 and the Prime Trilogy. Now of course, Prime 4 restarted development in 2019. But again, that was 3 years ago, shouldn't they have something to show of the new build by this point? And wouldn't now be a great time to port the older Prime games, riding high off Dread's success and about a year before when you would expect Prime 4 to be ready? Yet it's been crickets throughout all of 2022 for anything Metroid.

Then there's Pikmin 4. This game was said to be "almost done" in 2015 and then went silent for 7 years before resurfacing in the Direct with just a measly screenshot. What happened in those 7 years that they went completely silent all that time? And how come all they can show is a screenshot?

Lastly there's the DK rumors. There's a lot of rumors indicating that the 3D Mario studio is working on a DK game. There seems to have been a lot of smoke surrounding this game and it was expected to release last year for the 40th anniversary, and while you shouldn't put too much stock in rumors there's too much smoke here for me to believe there's no fire, so I still have to question why we're sitting here a year later with not even a peep of a DK game.

I'm not trying to sound too entitled here, but there's multiple major games that feel like they should've been ready in 2021/2022, and we either haven't seen them or they've been releasing slower than usual. If it were just one or two, that might be understandable and you might be able to chalk that up to typical development issues. But with this many? Something smells rotten in Nintendo right now. It feels like there's some kind of company-wide development issue right now, and again, I think it goes beyond the pandemic. It may be they're just holding games back for new hardware in 2024ish so they can give the new console a 2017-esque blowout to repeat the success of the Switch, but short of that I am very concerned about what's going on with the lack of first party games right now. Am I the only one concerned with Nintendo's lineups recently?

I'm not concerned, but I do agree its very weird. Like...what are some of these developers doing right now? It could be any number of things, but its hard to say because outside of one rumor about the 3D Mario team, there's not been a ton to even go off of.

I double checked this recently and IIRC, the Arms directors (from the Mario Kart side of Nintendo) have not been in the credits for any game after Arms.

I mean it could be like Kirby. There was no major Kirby game (outside of a f2p follow up to a 3ds download only game) for 4 years, and now we're gonna get a 3rd Kirby game in one year. All their development came together all at once (probably deliberately based on the anniversary and maintaining hype from the 3D Kirby game)

Hmm, @Bolt_Strike .... I basically keep my Switch for games I can't get on Steam & yet there's plenty coming up for Switch that I'm getting
It certainly seems likely that some of the recently announced games might well have been finished months ago but there's always plenty of possible reasons for 'delays', as well
Perhaps they'd be better off telling us about them instead of being so secretive?

Well with the rumors for the most part, just don't put stock into those. They're nothing but heresy made by the people who chase after clout, with only a few ever actually ending up actualized.

As for Nintendo themselves, I feel like the first party stuff has always been awful on Switch. Not because they aren't putting out big games, but the way they've been handling their games. It feels like ever since the system started to do well, they just grew complacent with their titles. A ton of the games they release have released completely unfinished, with them updating the content in later, touting the "free content updates" as a huge complementary feature to keep the game living longer, but in reality it just kind of sucks the life out of the game at launch. They tried it with all the Mario sports games, only for them to be horrid. Switch Sports was pretty much confirmed to be unfinished by the delay of Golf, and New Horizons was missing series staples at launch.

To me, the big games that were singleplayer on Switch have also felt quite soulless, with some exceptions here and there. Mario Odyssey feels wrong to me. It feels like something's incredibly off when I play it, but I can't put my finger onto why. I have a theory it could be how the kingdoms are smaller, but I'm unsure. Animal Crossing was a massive disappointment. BotW doesn't really constitute as a switch game for me, since it was originally made with the Wii U in mind, but changed a bit towards the end of development in order to account for the Switch.

However, when it comes to the stuff you bring up, I don't think it's as really cut and dry as you make it. For example, with the Mario games, we have no idea what's in the works. We're probably most likely not going to receive an Odyssey 2, but rather a new game entirely, and perhaps even for a new console. If it's in the works right now or not is up for debate.

As for Zelda, the whole reason it pretty much got delayed was most likely the Pandemic. It hit Japan pretty hard, especially because they don't really do the "work from home" thing that America does, at least until the Pandemic happened. Not to mention they went under lockdown multiple times through-out 2020 and early 2021.

Metroid is just in dev hell, and prime trilogy isn't a confirmed thing. Prime Trilogy is pretty much just something leakers spout as "totally real and happening" every year, much like Windwaker HD and Twilight Princess HD.

While we don't know the circumstances on Pikmin 4, my guess is that it was either put on hold due to Miyamoto being directly connected to series and taking a bit of a break from game dev to work on other dealings, scrapped and redone from the ground up because they weren't happy with how the game was turning out (much like metroid prime 4, but not announced to the public like that was), or Miyamoto was referring to "Hey! Pikmin"/never said what we thought he said, and it was just a mistranslation.

As for Mario Kart, it's probably a case of 8 Deluxe selling well that they don't really need to pump out a new game. They can just lazily add new courses to fluff up their Switch Online Expansion Pass, whilst waiting to release their next game on a new console whenever that ends up happening.

@Bolt_Strike To me there seems an obvious omission from this thread so far, and that's the suggestion that these major IPs are being lined up for a new hardware launch. That's why they've hardly shown anything of Tears of The Kingdom, why there's not been a new Mario game since MM2, and why Metroid Prime continues to elude us.

I've never been particularly convinced by the idea of new hardware in 2023, but so much is beginning to point that way that I wouldn't be at all surprised now.

@gcunit

I already covered that.

Something I did forget to mention in that regard though, is how weird they've been about some of the IPs they've chosen to release and some of them they haven't yet revealed. I mean Mario Kart is very clearly being saved for next gen and Mario might be too, but they were very eager to release Splatoon 3 this year when it felt so similar to the original that some questioned why they even bothered releasing it this gen and TotK is on its way before new hardware. They've had no issue releasing some major IPs during what some expect to be the Switch's twilight years to the point where you have to wonder if they're really releasing new hardware soon or not (my prediction, I think it's 2024, I don't think they're releasing games in 2023 because it still seems like the Switch is being supported based on what we know of next year, but it does feel like they might be winding down).

Side note, I was going to mention 2D Mario as well, but with us getting Mario Maker 2 and NSMBUD a few years ago, we're not really as hurting for 2D Mario as some of the other IPs. Either way, I do think 2D Mario is one of the IPs being saved for next gen, especially if it's going to be the bold new era for 2D Mario everyone expects instead of NSMB5 or MM3. A game like that makes for a perfect launch title.

@VoidOfLight Nah, I don't buy that Odyssey 2 isn't in development. They'd make a sequel if they think it would sell well and if they have enough leftover ideas for a new game. I think they've checked both of those boxes. Odyssey is easily the best selling 3D Mario game, and there are so many enemies and level ideas they could come up with for a second Odyssey game. Plus they went for a BotW sequel and BotW and Odyssey are both 1a and 1b of the Switch's 2017 lineup and maybe the Switch's lineup overall. I don't think their minds are quite on next gen Mario yet. They've touched on it with Bowser's Fury, but I think they still want to do more with Odyssey on the Switch first before they do a full game with what they learned in Bowser's Fury.

Also the quality of the first party games is subjective, this is more about the quantity and scale of their first party output. Going from having big game after big game in 2017-2019 and then having little to nothing in 2020-2022 raises an eyebrow.

@Bolt_Strike The thing is, if they were making an Odyssey 2, it would have been revealed by now and probably would have been released. However, it hasn't been revealed, and it's been a long amount of time since Odyssey, making me think they're most likely not making a sequel.

Also, BotW 2 being on switch instead of new hardware makes sense when you consider that the Switch doesn't have it's own Zelda yet. BotW doesn't count because it's technically a Wii U game. It was made for the Wii U in mind, but brought to switch because they were jumping a sinking ship. We haven't had a proper Zelda game that takes full advantage of the switch as a console, and TotK is going to most likely be that game. It's also important to note that not all Zelda titles are launch titles for a new console. Majora's Mask, A Link Between Worlds, Triforce Heroes, the Four Swords games, and Spirit Tracks, and Skyward Sword weren't made for the launch of their systems. There's only ever been two Zelda titles that have launched on two systems at the same time as well. Twilight Princess and BotW.

It could be, better, but who knows, maybe next year will be different.

Next year will have Pikmin. I'm happy.

Just thinking out aloud, but if we are about to go into a global recession then Nintendo selling a cheap console and sitting on a bunch of games is probably the best position they can be in to weather it. Certainly a difficult period to launch a new console and yet another headache for the President to nurse. The business side of Nintendo were so successful during the 'challenging times.' They know what they are doing and certainly thinking more long term than the fans are. They probably have more of an idea of the state of the economy at the moment. And as for the pandemic being behind us, I almost lost my mum to Covid last month. It most certainly hasn't gone away. And Nintendo acknowledge it at the start of the Directs. If they are choosing quality of life over profits at the moment, I respect that. But seriously, fans are getting more cynical than corporations! If it makes sense it will make money, fans go crazy when it doesn't happen. Like that's all that matters. Youtube and twitter can have a rather degenerate level of thinking. Even a sign of respect for delaying the UK Direct doesn't make sense to them...presumably because they don't know what respect means. Again, they knew what they were doing with that.

Not concerned at all, there's games and DLC to look forward to and that's enough for me.

From a more analytical side, you have to be careful with timing of stuff to make sure both that games get a fair chance of success and also about the future. I gave the example in the Direct thread that if Prime remaster(s) were announced in the September Direct for this holiday then Bayonetta 3 sales would suffer. By not mentioning them (if they're real) until November at the earliest you get the best of both outcomes, Bayonetta 3 is given the best chance for good initial sales while the remaster(s) eventually happen and start the hype cycle for Prime 4.

You also have the situation of what happened in 2012-2013 for Wii U where because the Wii got the big system sellers late in its lifespan (e.g. Mario Galaxy 2, Skyward Sword), the early Wii U era was limited. Nintendo won't want a repeat of that so if new hardware is inbound anytime soon they will stockpile stuff like the next mainline Mario game, the next Mario Kart game, etc. to guarantee a 2017-esque lineup.

Finally there's the concept of "Do you need a new game when you can keep supporting the old one?" with more content. With Mario Kart, I think the current setup is the best option where Mario Kart 8 (a 2014 game) is gradually being turned into Mario Kart Ultimate. I'd much rather have 1 game with 96 tracks then 2 games with 48 tracks each for example. Bring on Booster Course Pass 2 launching early 2024.

If I was to guess when new hardware was coming I'd say May 12th 2023 to mirror the Switch launch setup. If it happens it happens, if it doesn't it doesn't. That's 8 months away anyway and there's a load of stuff to look forward to before then.

Why are they more concerned about Bayonetta 3's sales when Bayonetta only sells about 1-2 million whereas Prime has the potential to get 3-5 million in sales? This feels like backwards business logic.

Ehh, most of the late Wii stuff came out in 2010-2011 and it would've been reasonable for them to expect to turn most of that around in 2012-2014 with what they knew at the time (remember they weren't aware of the issues that the transition to HD development brought, which is why they struggled). And they actually kind of did a pretty good job there as far as turning those IPs around, we got 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and DK in that time, the only major IP missing there was Zelda (which was planned for 2014 but didn't make it until 2017). The issue there was more marketing than quantity, no one saw the Wii U as a quality next gen console and the games didn't really do a good job of selling it as one as most of the vast, open area IPs/gamestyles that people typically gravitate to on Nintendo consoles (your sandbox Marios, 3D Zeldas, Metroids, etc) were largely absent. It's more late 2015 and 2016 that suffered from the lack of first party games, not 2012-2014. 2012-2014 they just chose the wrong games to market the console and even the right choices they did make weren't enough to save the Wii U from its utter failure.

Ehh, the Booster Course Pack is quantity over quality, we have a lot of tracks, but they're mobile ports that have a lot less polish and care than typical track ports. I'd rather have the 2 games of 48 if they're 48 well designed tracks with interesting new mechanics instead of just 1 game of 96 lazy copy/paste jobs from mobile. Furthermore, I think there's something seriously missing by the Switch not having its own original Mario Kart game. There's so much more that can be done with Mario Kart that it feels like a waste of potential to give it nothing but ports (I'm not as bothered as others when it comes to the amount of ports and remakes on the Switch because at least there's also a healthy mix of high quality original releases alongside of them, but Mario Kart is one of the few major Nintendo IPs that does not have such a game on Switch).

Also, their approach to Mario Kart really stands in stark contrast to what they're doing with Splatoon, it seems like they're handling those two IPs completely oppositely and I think you could argue that they had things backwards here. Mario Kart is the IP that feels like it needed a new entry, Splatoon could've done with just a 2nd game and porting the first game. 3 feels so similar to 2 (and probably 1, but I haven't played 1 to be able to tell) that you have to question if it really needed a second entry on Switch, it feels like they could've held that for next gen and done some cooler things with the capabilities of the new hardware and they could've just given 2 more DLC if they really wanted more Splatoon right now.

I highly doubt it's coming this soon. They'd have probably announced or at least teased it if it was this close, and they wouldn't be marketing major IPs on the Switch like Splatoon 3 and the Booster Course Pack (remember that the Booster Course Pack is meant to last until the end of 2023, why would they want you to stick with MK8D on the Switch for that long if we were going to have new hardware midway through?) if we were moving on to next gen. We also knew BotW would be on the Switch (back when we only knew it as its codename the NX) a full 9 months ahead of time and 4 months before the Switch was officially revealed. So it feels a bit late to start the marketing for new hardware in earnest, especially when the Switch had the benefit of being unofficially announced well before the official October reveal date and anticipation was building up for almost 2 years beforehand.

We aren't getting a new console next year. Nintendo would be foolish to do so, given that there's hardware shortages which are projected to keep going until 2025 I'm pretty sure. I don't get why so many people get so hung up on "ZELDA MUST LAUNCH BESIDE A NEW CONSOLE!" Are you guys willfully ignoring the many Zelda games that didn't launch with a new console? Or the fact that the switch has yet to have a proper Zelda made for it?

@voidoflight
I think to further your stance that people often forget, the Switch Consoles line up we currently have is still selling like crazy. Nintendo is a business first and foremost and what business sense does it make to create an entirely new higher powered Switch when you don't need to.

As far as their first party line up, we just got Splatoon 3, and they are working on Breath of the Wild 2, those are both very big games. Sorry for those of you who don't have a deep pond of interests in games and only look surface deep for the 1st party titles, life must be very boring for you.

I'm not in the least bit worried about Nintendo EPD's (lack of ) output. Much of their work with partner and subsidiary studios (Monolith, HAL, Intelligent Systems, Platinum, etc.) has been excellent of late and - combined with the success of the Switch also bringing a wealth of third party games - the pressure is off.

The pressure being off, they can afford to go full Miyamoto and hold games back until they're truly honed, or keep them going with far more post launch support than they'd have had in previous generations. EPD Group 4 will still churn out a lot of experimental games that can be very hit and miss, but they're the exception.

I'd imagine that this could be very frustrating if you're waiting for a specific game, particularly something from a less traveled franchise, but it's not like we've got a shortage of good games to play, at least.

This

I agree. I think Mario might be the launch game if a new Switch were to ever happen, and right now there is still a chip shortage so it would be kinda dumb for Nintendo to make a new console and maybe not be able to ship to high demand.

@VoidofLight Nothing says that TotK couldn't be a dual release like BotW, that would still satisfy it being a Switch developed release. In fact I could easily see the next gen console getting a 2-3 year cross gen period to ease people in instead of dropping the Switch and its userbase all at once (they even did that with the 3DS -> Switch transition to a lesser extent).

@steventonysmith They can't be so shortsighted, especially when they're dealing with projects that are in development for 3-5 years. You don't know for sure where you'll be when those 3-5 years are up. Nintendo is selling well now, but the momentum seems to be slowing and when the PS5 and XBSX start taking off, the Switch is going to be left behind. That's why they need to be thinking about next gen about now. It'd be foolhardy for them to expect the Switch to survive for more than about 2-3 more years when the competition is basically 2 hardware gens ahead of them.

@Bolt_Strike
Can you honestly find the PS5 in any random store? They are not taking off yet. Also Nintendo is making a successor, I'm not suggesting they are not, but from the windfall of money the Switch has made them they don't have to rush out a successor as quickly as you think they do.

Well then if the chip shortage is hampering new consoles for as long as you think it is, then the game drought makes even less sense. From the consumer side of things (I know this isn't the truth and they're working on things behind the scenes that they aren't ready to show, but as far as what the public has been shown) it really feels like Nintendo's been twiddling their thumbs the last 2 years. They've had little to nothing to show in all of that time and there's multiple games you can look at and think they should be ready that aren't. Especially from some of the IPs in that blowout 2017 lineup, they should be ready for sequels about now (really under normal circumstances they should've been ready in 2020 but then pandemic so we should've seen them in 2021/2022).

EDIT: Actually @Matt_Barber makes a good point, most of my complaints here are with EPD's output specifically and not Nintendo as a whole. The second party studios (Monolith, IS, Game Freak, HAL, Camelot, etc.) have all been producing a relatively similar output but EPD has been near radio silent compared to before the pandemic and that's where the issue is. However, I can't quite forgive them on this one because they have new hardware to compete with and most of their biggest sellers are EPD franchises so I don't agree that the pressure's off. It's not a matter of waiting for a "less traveled" franchise, it's the opposite, the less traveled franchises have been getting more attention and it feels like they have their priorities backwards.