Topic: 1st week games' chart postion guessing game

Game time! Predict all 5 of the Switch's retail launch games' chart positions of either the US or UK; whilst everyone will almost certainly be guess Zelda as no 1 it will be lot harder guessing where Just Dance or Bomberman will be ending up.

My go for the UK:

1. Zelda
2. 1, 2, Switch
3. Just Dance
4. Bomberman
5. Skylanders

I am still expecting another title to be there for launch, but 1 2 Switch if it continues to fall in price deffo.

My prediction for the UK is:
2. Zelda
20. 1, 2, Switch
39. Bomberman
N/A. Just Dance
N/A. Skylanders

Replace Bomberman with Just Dance and you're probably right on the mark.

My only guess is that Zelda will win out of the switch games.

1. gangbusters

US:

1. Zelda
2. 1 2 Switch
3. Bomberman
4. Binding of Issac
5. Just Dance
6. Skylanders

If this was the holidays, I'd place Just Dance and Skylanders higher but I don't think that crowd will quite be there on launch day.

@Whitewatermoose Don't think the charts list anything below 40, so we will never know! And Zelda at no.1? Horizon Zero Dawn launches the same week and expect a huge marketing push from Sony; 50+ million userbase vs a 2 million userbase. Horizon will outsell Zelda (Switch version) for sure at launch.

@Octane Yeah, Horizon Zero Dawn is why I guessed 2 for Zelda. There is no chance Zelda is beating that game.

@Grumblevolcano Maybe down the road, but definitely not at launch. I expect that Zelda will have bigger legs and sell at least 5 million in the end. Not sure if Horizon will reach that, it depends on the impact it'll have. It can see it selling 3-4 million, or I can see it becoming their new big IP and sell 8-10 million. If the Switch does well, Zelda can still outsell Horizon I think.

I'm not sure if this is serious (I hope it isn't), but no way would Zelda be the only top 10 game for A MAJOR CONSOLE LAUNCH IN MARCH.

Wtf would even be happening in March besides maybe...3 other major games? Maybe?

I'd bet money even the 3DS Monkey Ball game made the top 20 everywhere for 3DS' launch. And no one cares about the 3DS Super Monkey Ball game.

@kkslider5552000

The PS4 and XB1 both have an install base of over 15 million in North America. The Switch is going to suffer from supply shortages, and is starting from scratch. It's unrealistic to expect ordinary Switch titles to perform as well as PS4/XB1 titles at this stage.

Zelda is the only Switch title that stands a chance of making the top 10 in March. The remaining spots will be filled by big hitters from Q4 2016 and Q1 2017.

@kkslider5552000 There's a lot happening on the PS4 front in Q1 2017 because Sony delayed a lot of their late 2016 titles so it seems realistic for those to dominate over Switch games.

Some food for thought, will the Switch version of BOTW outsell the Wii U version of BOTW? 2 million userbase vs 14 million userbase?

As for the competing games, remember that the charts are still dominated by old games like GTA V and Minecraft. Last year's big hitters will be high in the charts as well. Halo Wars is coming to Xbox One the week before the Switch launches, and there's a lot happening on Sony's front too. RE7, Sniper Elite 4, For Honor, Lego Worlds, are all new multiplatform releases for late January and Februari.

@Octane
I think that's the most interesting question, too. I honestly don't know. Definitely over the long run, but maybe not for the first few months.

@Octane I think the Switch version will sell more as I think Nintendo will make the Wii U version rare enough to make a fair amount of Wii U owners have to decide between Switch and nothing.

@rallydefault Thinking about it a little more; Who's going to buy the Switch day one and not get Zelda? I find it unlikely that someone's going to buy the Switch for Just Dance, or just for Bomberman. Maybe 1-2-Switch, but I think that at least 80% will pick up Zelda as well, right? Mario Kart 8, the best selling Wii U games sold around 1.2 million copies during its first week. So I think that the Switch version can still outsell the Wii U version. Especially since the Switch version will eat up some of the Wii U sales.

@Octane
Very true. You're probably right. I mean, I'm getting Switch and yea, I have Zelda and Bomberman pre-ordered (maaaaaybe 1, 2 Switch to play with the wife).

So maybe it'll kind of be the opposite of what I was initially thinking. Maybe Zelda will sell more on Switch initially, but then it'll be interesting to see where the numbers fall as the months pan out. Will people put their money where their mouths seem to be and buy it more consistently on the Wii U? Will be interesting, for sure.

No? Not necessarily at the very least.

I think people forget that retail games sell the best early on, and that even some huge titles can fairly quickly disappear from charts. This is less that the Switch launch will be huge and more that any major system launch like this is enough to chart a few games, because most games don't have a long life in the top 10 of gaming charts. I also expect some relatively older game on PS4/Xbox One to significantly outsell Gravity Rush 2 once that game is more than 2 or 3 weeks old, for example.

You're acting like getting a game in the top 10 for a week in a region is that difficult. Like...no? Especially with a lack of games at launch, so Switch games won't be competing with each other. And outside of the holiday season (and maybe Fall sometimes), you can sell fairly meh numbers and still get in the top 10 FOR ONE WEEK.

My go for the UK:
1. Zelda
2. 1, 2, Switch
3. Just Dance
4. Skylanders
5. Bomberman