Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

One of the regular leakers claimed there would be a general this month also, but not the most reliable of ones.

Note that next week is Mario Tennis and the end of the month is Pokemon Presents, so the 17th is in the semi empty week. I could imagine an indie or something, but I don't see how a general would make sense so soon after the last direct.

@CaleBoi25 It seems that the theory is mostly based around an update to the "Mario and Wario" patent occurring on February 17 and a similar update to the "Rhythm Heaven Groove" patent on the 24th. Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like pretty weak grounds for there being a Direct. It's a pretty busy day as well, between the launch of Virtual Boy NSO and the Lunar New Year. TBH, all this talk going around of a "real direct" coming soon feels like the Nintendo fandom is experiencing its own form of "Conformity Gate".

At the very earliest, I could see a General Direct in Late March, though April or June seem more likely to me.

@CaleBoi25 I think if they do a Direct that week, it'll be another game specific one like Tomodachi Life. Fire Emblem and Rhythm Heaven feels like the most likely candidates, former would mean Nintendo manages to release it before the big summer of RPGs begins (Rebirth on June 3rd is the start of the summer of RPGs) meanwhile latter would continue the trend set in January of Switch 1 news being outside of general Directs.

@UpsideDownRowlet

it's extremely weak, actually. post is from a splatoon raiders example but the same thing happened with those other patents.

I'm pretty plugged into the rumor mill, and I haven't heard anything credible.

I'm sticking with my initial theory (not the one I LIKED, though lol): Nintendo is pretty comfortable with what they have for the next couple months. Maybe we'll get some game-specific smaller stuff, but I don't think we're looking at a 1st-party Direct until the Spring. Like, super late March or later.

@Bolt_Strike It honestly wouldn't surprise me if many of their big tentpole franchises aren't even close to having their next games done, so Nintendo just has nothing big to announce. They probably believed that the Switch 2 would sell better in the West due to it's branding and Mario Kart World. Seems like a lot of people are waiting to grab a Switch 2 when exclusive titles like the next 3D Mario or next Xenoblade gets announced though.

@VoidofLight IDK about that. Mario's long absence seems to imply that they were working on something for next gen (and no, I do not think it was just Bananza, Mario is too huge a franchise to skip and many of the senior Mario developers are unaccounted for). Smash 6, Luigi's Mansion 4, and the next major Animal Crossing have also gone 5 or more years since their last release so they feel due (although ACNH S2E and Kirby Air Riders have thrown monkey wrenches in some of those), I think those 4 are specifically the ones that people are waiting for before they get a Switch 2. There is (or at least it feels like there is) a lack of tentpoles since COVID and people are getting fed up at this point. I think Nintendo may have overestimated how good their lineup would be and they may have learned the wrong lesson from the Switch. They saw how well their Wii U ports were selling and thought they could repeat the same strategy with S2Es but that may just be a flash in the pan to some degree and even with some of the Wii U ports doing well, the new, original games in those tentpole IPs generally outsold the re-releases. And so far, the Switch 2 doesn't have many games of that caliber (mainly just Mario Kart World, Bananza arguably could but it's not doing quite well enough to reach that level yet I don't think). Based on how the Switch games performed, most likely the best sellers on Switch 2 by the end of the generation will be MKW, maybe Bananza, the new 3D Mario, the new 3D Zelda, Pokemon Gens 10 and 11, Smash 6, the new Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion 4, and Splatoon 4. And most of these games... simply haven't been announced yet. I think we may need about 3-5 games of this caliber before the narrative of "no games" and underperforming sales really changes.

@Bolt_Strike I honestly don't think Smash 6 is coming any time soon. Especially since Sakurai kinda made it seem like Smash Ultimate is probably his last Smash game for a good while (and there's not really anywhere he could take the series beyond Ultimate, since anything he does will be lesser than that game in terms of roster and stages).

3D Mario might be in development, but I feel like if it were ready- we would've seen that in the September Direct rather than Yoshi being the final announcement there. Animal Crossing is probably going to be a mid-gen game, given that Tomodachi Life Living the Dream fills it's niche (with it being a design sim and life sim).

I do think that the Switch 2 Editions are an attempt for Nintendo to pad out their schedule with "Wii U-like" re-releases of their older games.. but I don't know how well that's working out for them at the current. A lot of these Switch 2 editions are pretty lazy- being mainly just a frame-rate increase or resolution bump with no underlying work done to fix the technical constraints that the Switch 1 versions of these games had. On top of that, they offer content for a premium.. with that content not really being worth the asking price for it.

• Starcrossed World was fun, but it wasn't worth the asking price for it. The new content is rather minuscule at most.
• The Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom Switch 2 Editions are basically just you paying a premium for the ability to get a better FPS and higher resolution. Sure, it comes with a mobile app companion- but I doubt most people used it.. and the extra lore tidbits got uploaded to YouTube anyways (the only reason you'd even want to have the app). On top of this, you can still see visible issues with how the game renders it's shadows, as Nintendo didn't think of increasing render distance to match with the higher resolution of the Switch 2's handheld screen. So it ends up creating this screen tearing effect that makes the whole presentation look sloppy visually.
• Mario Party Jamboree + Jamboree TV is also a mess not worth the price they asked for it. Apparently at launch of this Switch 2 Edition, they pretty much left the base game untouched and Jamboree TV was the only thing supporting the new FPS and Resolution of the Switch 2. It had it's own version of the board game mode, along with small multiplayer mini-games that seemed like a fun one-and-done situation. The price is too high for what it offers, and it didn't even upgrade the bulk of the actual game. I can't remember if they patched it to fix that or not.
• Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch 2 Edition. This is the cheapest Switch 2 Edition because all it really does is add 12 player multiplayer, a resolution bump, and the Megaphone. Most of the actual content of the Switch 2 Edition was included in a free update (which was a good move). The issue I take with it is that you're paying $5.99 for something that still does the bare minimum. For multiplayer that no one's going to use (especially because there's nothing to do with 8 players, so why would you do stuff with 12?) along with no FPS increase (probably due to something relying on the FPS to work properly- but it creates this jarring feeling going back to it when so many Switch 2 editions bumped the games up to a solid 60FPS).

It just doesn't feel exciting to see Switch 2 Editions announced. At all. Like- I'm wanting updates that increase the performance of games from Switch 1, sure- but I don't get excited when I see those announced instead of new games. The only time I feel like I would be remotely excited in that regard is probably if Monolithsoft announced Switch 2 Editions for their games- or for Xenoblade 2 at least, since I know it'll probably be higher quality- or go above and beyond. I'd imagine Xenoblade 2 Switch 2 Edition would be more akin to Xenoblade 1 Definitive Edition or Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition- with side content added, or story content added.

@VoidofLight Nintendo really does feel like it's losing the battle against increasing dev times. They just can't seem to muster up satisfying enough content to pad out increasing intervals of time between tentpole releases. IDK if they're just arrogant enough to think that a specs increase is enough to sustain a re-release or if they just can't get enough content for a satisfying add-on in a relatively short amount of time, but I do think they've taken things to an extreme with charging for these performance updates.

As far as what should be ready soon, Smash 6 I just mentioned because it was one other people thought it should be ready with the amount of time since Ultimate (and its DLC concluded several years back). Air Riders has taken the wind out of those sales though. I was suspecting an Ultimate S2E because of the issue with Sakurai's impending retirement, but honestly who knows at this point? 3D Mario has likely been in development since Bowser's Fury and I suspect this game is going to be an expansion of that concept. EPD 8 appears to have split in two with one team working on Bananza and the other working on the next 3D Mario, and I suspect development on the 3D Mario started after Bowser's Fury. What I think happened with 3D Mario is that they intended for it to be a launch title for Switch 2, but ran into development troubles because of the transition to open world, so it's suffered multiple internal delays and they're not ready to announce yet. But I definitely think it should be here next year at the latest. And with Luigi's Mansion 4, we haven't seen a game from NLG since 2022 and Nintendo has probably invested more in them since buying them, so they may be able to alternate between Luigi's Mansion and Mario Strikers every 3 or 4 years so I think LM4 is just wrapping up. So beyond Pokemon, I think 3D Mario and LM4 have a reasonable shot of coming soon and I suspect those are the games Furukawa might be referring to especially when stressing the importance of these next 2 years. He should know everything else besides Pokemon just isn't going to move the needle.

@Bolt_Strike correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't DKB's sales pretty close to BotW's (in terms of X number units sold in Y amount of time)?

Although that is true in terms of sales the half ish year after release, it's also true that BotW did a lot better during its second quarter and also a lot better during the holidays than Bananza did. Bananza had a big start but slowed down a lot over the holidays. I was hoping it would do better. Because of that, it is too early to tell if Bananza will be a really big and long term seller.

In the ballpark. Breath of the Wild sold about 8.5 million on the Switch in its first year. Bananza is at like 5ish in 8 months.

This discussion between @Bolt_Strike and @VoidofLight is the very hive mind sort of narrative that internet forums produce, in my opinion. As most of these tone-deaf narratives need, this one needs the listener to not actually be engaging with the software being discussed AND it needs the listener to continue to ignore the actual data coming in. Instead, you're asked to accept the forum user's assessment that none of the existing games are "big" enough to justify a hardware purchase.

Bananza is one of the best games Nintendo has ever made. Most won't rank it higher than Odyssey (I might not, either, but it's close), but it's a gem and will continue to sell as the actual gamers continue to play it and enjoy it rather than listen to the forum jockeys who continue to downplay it. (My hunch is that most people around here who diss the game played it through at launch very quickly and then put it down. Maybe they didn't even beat it.)

And MK World is much the same story: despite an internet smear campaign that still lingers by people who haven't even played it since launch, quite clearly it continues to sell. And for those of us who still play online, it's as populated as ever and only growing, and Nintendo continues to change and find compromises on some of the systems.

What the February numbers should have taught is that, again, the internet truly is detached from reality in meaningful ways. The narratives that get tossed around here and especially in other forums are not indicative of what is actually happening and what non-forum consumers are thinking.

@FishyS Yeah, I was bullish on Bananza breaking into tentpole status, but it just feels like the game came and went and after a strong wave of initial sales momentum has seriously slowed. I think it may still be possible if people are waiting for more tentpoles to buy the system and will just buy them in short order after the console purchase, but I'm far less certain of that scenario. The larger audience just... might not care about it that much. Sad because I think it's easily the most creative game on the console and also the one that's closest to that "next gen" feel that's missing.

Considering the amount of stuff Nintendo's done for DK since 2024, I could see them doing a DK movie or TV show. That would help Bananza be more of an evergreen game.

I mean, I beat DK Bananza. I enjoyed it- probably even more than Odyssey. I wouldn't lump people into a "hive-mind" mentality just because they feel like Nintendo is sort of coming up short with larger scale titles- especially when you don't even know what the person you're talking about actually thinks of the media that they're bringing up in the first place. But nah, if you have any qualms or concerns, then you're apart of the "NINTENDOOMER GRIFTER HIVEMIND." Never mind the fact that I actually really hate Nintendo Griftubers for covering Nintendo with a constant negative lens.

The reason why I'm personally not happy with Nintendo is because of two things:

• Over-reliance on Switch 2 Editions as game releases
• No large first party titles are releasing in the foreseeable future.

Sure, you have Yoshi and Fire Emblem, but those aren't really the type of heavy hitting exclusive games that people are going to be buying a Switch 2 for. As a whole those two series are relatively niche. Even with Three Houses selling super well for the series itself. Of course I'm not saying the system is doomed. Pokemon will sell units regardless of the quality of the next game. Fire Emblem will probably be popular amongst Fire Emblem fans, and get them to buy the console as well. The system isn't going to sink- but I wish we just knew more about what Nintendo plans on releasing in the future. I know I personally want to see what MonolithSoft is doing, especially since I bought my Switch 2 mainly for the next Xenoblade game and Luigi's Mansion 4.

@VoidofLight
Couple things: You’re doing the whole “you don’t know me” thing and then assuming a bunch of stuff about me lol Another common internet thing, so let’s skip that nonsense.

You’re missing my point. My point is that Nintendo is releasing bigger games. The data is showing us that: nearly 13 mil for MK World. 5 mil for Bananza after 8 months. Bananza could hit near what BotW did in its first year, but you wouldn’t label it as a “big” game? There is a very real chance Bananza is over 7 million by July, maybe even darn close to 8, especially with the Mario movie likely to bring a high tide for all boats.

That’s the cognitive dissonance I’m trying to show you. Our feelings here literally don’t matter. The data is showing us what is really going on.

And you end by saying you are excited for a Xenoblade entry… a series that doesn’t sell lol The highest selling entry didn’t even hit 3 mil.

So, like… come on lol

@rallydefault And if you read Fishy's comment, you'd understand that the sales for Bananza slowed far faster than the sales for Breath of the Wild.

I also never claimed that Xenoblade is up there with the big tentpole Nintendo franchises. I said I'm personally excited for it, and that I bought my Switch 2 for it- but that isn't a game that's going to sell as many consoles as something like Pokemon or Animal Crossing would. It's similar to Fire Emblem.

I don't really get why I entertain arguing with you at this point. It's always just "You either agree with me, or you're part of the Nintendoomer hivemind."

@VoidofLight Just Ignore List rallydefault. It'll be better for your mental sanity.

Like I said, I was bullish on DK Bananza. It has a lot of things going for it that could make it a tentpole title. Being a large, ambitious, innovative game in an IP that is instantly recognizable can do a lot for you, and some of the earlier games in the Switch's lineup were among its highest selling. It's a great game that IMO deserves success. But the sales data isn't very encouraging. The game got off to a fast start and then sales fell off a cliff. It's difficult to imagine it doing tentpole numbers (and what qualifies as a "tentpole" can be rather arbitrary and subjective, but for a quick and dirty measuring stick I'm going to say 10+ million in sales is what constitutes a tentpole) if it's running out of steam this quickly. I don't want Nintendo to be doomed. I'm not criticizing Nintendo because I hate them and want them to fail, I want them to succeed. I just don't think what they're selling is going to cut it. I want them to be better than this.

i do think rally had some slight point - albeit, somewhat missing the point and continuing to be terrible at arguing - because clearly the issue isn't that bananza isn't a big, important game for nintendo, it's just not selling like one.

that being said, i will say i do hate this constant opinion online that bananza simply doesn't count as a big game because it's not mario, despite sharing a lot of the design philosophy of mario odyssey. the casual consumer just won't care as much unless specifically mario is on the cover and i really do hate that.

that that being said, it's also probably been far too little time to make any judgement calls about how bananza is gonna sell. clearly we're all predisposed to being overly paranoid about sales, if the recent fiasco with console holiday sales is an indication of anything, so i'd rather wait through 2026 and see how it goes.

personal thought? people buy mario kart first just because it's mario kart, that's the easy, simple choice. it's possible that, as sales continue, consumers will look to other first-party nintendo games and potentially reach for bananza next. basically, as more casual consumers pick up the switch 2, more of them will make slow transitions to working their way through the rest of the switch 2 library, leading into a steady, if modest, stream of bananza sales.

also wow i know im packing a lot into here, probably just rambling, but @Bolt_Strike what do you mean "i want them to be better than this"? is what they're selling bad? are you talking about their pricing practices? are you instead implying that bananza doesn't count as them doing well enough? no intention to antagonize, just throwing out quick thoughts.

I definitely agree, I was just hoping it would sell much better over the holidays. As much as a lot of us here agree the game is amazing, sometimes great Nintendo games outside of the top few franchises just.. don't sell as much as they arguably deserve. It could still end up evergreen even if not up there with sales like Odyssey and BotW. Or it might not. 2026 will be a good indication.

The lower holiday sales for Bananza may simply be an issue of there being a lot of games which spread out the sales - Mario Kart and Pokemon Z-A both predictably sold huge numbers and Air Riders, Prime 4, and Zelda Warriors all got over a million (at least if you count a little bit into January). Given that new Switch 2 owners aren't going to buy a ton of games at once, DK may have gotten a little buried in the pile.