Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@VoidofLight Nintendo really does feel like it's losing the battle against increasing dev times. They just can't seem to muster up satisfying enough content to pad out increasing intervals of time between tentpole releases. IDK if they're just arrogant enough to think that a specs increase is enough to sustain a re-release or if they just can't get enough content for a satisfying add-on in a relatively short amount of time, but I do think they've taken things to an extreme with charging for these performance updates.

As far as what should be ready soon, Smash 6 I just mentioned because it was one other people thought it should be ready with the amount of time since Ultimate (and its DLC concluded several years back). Air Riders has taken the wind out of those sales though. I was suspecting an Ultimate S2E because of the issue with Sakurai's impending retirement, but honestly who knows at this point? 3D Mario has likely been in development since Bowser's Fury and I suspect this game is going to be an expansion of that concept. EPD 8 appears to have split in two with one team working on Bananza and the other working on the next 3D Mario, and I suspect development on the 3D Mario started after Bowser's Fury. What I think happened with 3D Mario is that they intended for it to be a launch title for Switch 2, but ran into development troubles because of the transition to open world, so it's suffered multiple internal delays and they're not ready to announce yet. But I definitely think it should be here next year at the latest. And with Luigi's Mansion 4, we haven't seen a game from NLG since 2022 and Nintendo has probably invested more in them since buying them, so they may be able to alternate between Luigi's Mansion and Mario Strikers every 3 or 4 years so I think LM4 is just wrapping up. So beyond Pokemon, I think 3D Mario and LM4 have a reasonable shot of coming soon and I suspect those are the games Furukawa might be referring to especially when stressing the importance of these next 2 years. He should know everything else besides Pokemon just isn't going to move the needle.

@Bolt_Strike correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't DKB's sales pretty close to BotW's (in terms of X number units sold in Y amount of time)?

Although that is true in terms of sales the half ish year after release, it's also true that BotW did a lot better during its second quarter and also a lot better during the holidays than Bananza did. Bananza had a big start but slowed down a lot over the holidays. I was hoping it would do better. Because of that, it is too early to tell if Bananza will be a really big and long term seller.

In the ballpark. Breath of the Wild sold about 8.5 million on the Switch in its first year. Bananza is at like 5ish in 8 months.

This discussion between @Bolt_Strike and @VoidofLight is the very hive mind sort of narrative that internet forums produce, in my opinion. As most of these tone-deaf narratives need, this one needs the listener to not actually be engaging with the software being discussed AND it needs the listener to continue to ignore the actual data coming in. Instead, you're asked to accept the forum user's assessment that none of the existing games are "big" enough to justify a hardware purchase.

Bananza is one of the best games Nintendo has ever made. Most won't rank it higher than Odyssey (I might not, either, but it's close), but it's a gem and will continue to sell as the actual gamers continue to play it and enjoy it rather than listen to the forum jockeys who continue to downplay it. (My hunch is that most people around here who diss the game played it through at launch very quickly and then put it down. Maybe they didn't even beat it.)

And MK World is much the same story: despite an internet smear campaign that still lingers by people who haven't even played it since launch, quite clearly it continues to sell. And for those of us who still play online, it's as populated as ever and only growing, and Nintendo continues to change and find compromises on some of the systems.

What the February numbers should have taught is that, again, the internet truly is detached from reality in meaningful ways. The narratives that get tossed around here and especially in other forums are not indicative of what is actually happening and what non-forum consumers are thinking.

@FishyS Yeah, I was bullish on Bananza breaking into tentpole status, but it just feels like the game came and went and after a strong wave of initial sales momentum has seriously slowed. I think it may still be possible if people are waiting for more tentpoles to buy the system and will just buy them in short order after the console purchase, but I'm far less certain of that scenario. The larger audience just... might not care about it that much. Sad because I think it's easily the most creative game on the console and also the one that's closest to that "next gen" feel that's missing.

Considering the amount of stuff Nintendo's done for DK since 2024, I could see them doing a DK movie or TV show. That would help Bananza be more of an evergreen game.

I mean, I beat DK Bananza. I enjoyed it- probably even more than Odyssey. I wouldn't lump people into a "hive-mind" mentality just because they feel like Nintendo is sort of coming up short with larger scale titles- especially when you don't even know what the person you're talking about actually thinks of the media that they're bringing up in the first place. But nah, if you have any qualms or concerns, then you're apart of the "NINTENDOOMER GRIFTER HIVEMIND." Never mind the fact that I actually really hate Nintendo Griftubers for covering Nintendo with a constant negative lens.

The reason why I'm personally not happy with Nintendo is because of two things:

• Over-reliance on Switch 2 Editions as game releases
• No large first party titles are releasing in the foreseeable future.

Sure, you have Yoshi and Fire Emblem, but those aren't really the type of heavy hitting exclusive games that people are going to be buying a Switch 2 for. As a whole those two series are relatively niche. Even with Three Houses selling super well for the series itself. Of course I'm not saying the system is doomed. Pokemon will sell units regardless of the quality of the next game. Fire Emblem will probably be popular amongst Fire Emblem fans, and get them to buy the console as well. The system isn't going to sink- but I wish we just knew more about what Nintendo plans on releasing in the future. I know I personally want to see what MonolithSoft is doing, especially since I bought my Switch 2 mainly for the next Xenoblade game and Luigi's Mansion 4.

@VoidofLight
Couple things: You’re doing the whole “you don’t know me” thing and then assuming a bunch of stuff about me lol Another common internet thing, so let’s skip that nonsense.

You’re missing my point. My point is that Nintendo is releasing bigger games. The data is showing us that: nearly 13 mil for MK World. 5 mil for Bananza after 8 months. Bananza could hit near what BotW did in its first year, but you wouldn’t label it as a “big” game? There is a very real chance Bananza is over 7 million by July, maybe even darn close to 8, especially with the Mario movie likely to bring a high tide for all boats.

That’s the cognitive dissonance I’m trying to show you. Our feelings here literally don’t matter. The data is showing us what is really going on.

And you end by saying you are excited for a Xenoblade entry… a series that doesn’t sell lol The highest selling entry didn’t even hit 3 mil.

So, like… come on lol

@rallydefault And if you read Fishy's comment, you'd understand that the sales for Bananza slowed far faster than the sales for Breath of the Wild.

I also never claimed that Xenoblade is up there with the big tentpole Nintendo franchises. I said I'm personally excited for it, and that I bought my Switch 2 for it- but that isn't a game that's going to sell as many consoles as something like Pokemon or Animal Crossing would. It's similar to Fire Emblem.

I don't really get why I entertain arguing with you at this point. It's always just "You either agree with me, or you're part of the Nintendoomer hivemind."

@VoidofLight Just Ignore List rallydefault. It'll be better for your mental sanity.

Like I said, I was bullish on DK Bananza. It has a lot of things going for it that could make it a tentpole title. Being a large, ambitious, innovative game in an IP that is instantly recognizable can do a lot for you, and some of the earlier games in the Switch's lineup were among its highest selling. It's a great game that IMO deserves success. But the sales data isn't very encouraging. The game got off to a fast start and then sales fell off a cliff. It's difficult to imagine it doing tentpole numbers (and what qualifies as a "tentpole" can be rather arbitrary and subjective, but for a quick and dirty measuring stick I'm going to say 10+ million in sales is what constitutes a tentpole) if it's running out of steam this quickly. I don't want Nintendo to be doomed. I'm not criticizing Nintendo because I hate them and want them to fail, I want them to succeed. I just don't think what they're selling is going to cut it. I want them to be better than this.

i do think rally had some slight point - albeit, somewhat missing the point and continuing to be terrible at arguing - because clearly the issue isn't that bananza isn't a big, important game for nintendo, it's just not selling like one.

that being said, i will say i do hate this constant opinion online that bananza simply doesn't count as a big game because it's not mario, despite sharing a lot of the design philosophy of mario odyssey. the casual consumer just won't care as much unless specifically mario is on the cover and i really do hate that.

that that being said, it's also probably been far too little time to make any judgement calls about how bananza is gonna sell. clearly we're all predisposed to being overly paranoid about sales, if the recent fiasco with console holiday sales is an indication of anything, so i'd rather wait through 2026 and see how it goes.

personal thought? people buy mario kart first just because it's mario kart, that's the easy, simple choice. it's possible that, as sales continue, consumers will look to other first-party nintendo games and potentially reach for bananza next. basically, as more casual consumers pick up the switch 2, more of them will make slow transitions to working their way through the rest of the switch 2 library, leading into a steady, if modest, stream of bananza sales.

also wow i know im packing a lot into here, probably just rambling, but @Bolt_Strike what do you mean "i want them to be better than this"? is what they're selling bad? are you talking about their pricing practices? are you instead implying that bananza doesn't count as them doing well enough? no intention to antagonize, just throwing out quick thoughts.

I definitely agree, I was just hoping it would sell much better over the holidays. As much as a lot of us here agree the game is amazing, sometimes great Nintendo games outside of the top few franchises just.. don't sell as much as they arguably deserve. It could still end up evergreen even if not up there with sales like Odyssey and BotW. Or it might not. 2026 will be a good indication.

The lower holiday sales for Bananza may simply be an issue of there being a lot of games which spread out the sales - Mario Kart and Pokemon Z-A both predictably sold huge numbers and Air Riders, Prime 4, and Zelda Warriors all got over a million (at least if you count a little bit into January). Given that new Switch 2 owners aren't going to buy a ton of games at once, DK may have gotten a little buried in the pile.

Ding ding ding. This is exactly the issue. Bananza definitely has the ambitious budget and design philosophy to be a major title for Nintendo, but in one sense a "major" title needs to be one that a lot of people buy and a major factor in why people buy the system. And the current sales so far don't support the idea that it's that kind of game. I would love for this game to prove me wrong in that regard, but the sales collapse is not encouraging.

Ah sorry, that was unrelated to the Bananza discussion.

I was speaking more generally in terms of Nintendo and the Switch 2 philosophy. What I find to be insufficient is the game lineup, too reliant on re-releases and spces bumps and not enough new, original content. There's not enough new, next gen-ness in the Switch 2 lineup.

Part of me wonders if Bananza would have hyped more casuals up if they put Mario on DK's shoulder. I'm glad they didn't, but I feel like people probably would've taken more interest with it's reveal.

@OmnitronVariant Ehh I doubt it was the premise. Otherwise it wouldn't have sold as well imo.

@VoidofLight
I'm showing you the dissonances in your argument.

And as @FishyS and others are pointing out - Bananza hasn't been out for a year yet. We don't know how it's going to sell overall, and like I said last night, it's entirely possible it ends up selling darn close to what BotW did in its first year. That would make it a pretty huge game, no?

Further, you can't judge a game or a system just by its holiday sales - again, did we not learn this from the doom and gloom around the Switch 2 hardware sales? And then we got the February numbers and most people were proved wrong.

Learn from history and learn from the data. Narrow-window holiday sales can be incredibly fickle and not indicative of overall trends. Anything that is discounted on Black Friday here in the U.S. (like PS5 was) is going to sell CRAZY amounts regardless of what it is and can then makes things look pretty lopsided for competitors that didn't offer steep discounts. You can discount the lowest-quality TV on Amazon for Black Friday and it will sell in droves.

But overall, the numbers stay good for the Switch 2. Not just good, but record-setting. So it's bizarre to see this "I expected more" stuff. It's unrealistic. It's bizarre for @Bolt_Strike to say he expects tentpole titles to sell 10+ million when a game like BotW didn't sell 10 million in its first year. Again, unrealistic. In the sense that sales like that (unless you're Mario Kart lol) take time.

Nintendo made good choices with their launch window, and the data is showing us that it's panning out. Nintendo is an old company with franchises nearly 40 years old - they know what sells and what doesn't, and despite our feelings about "big" games and what online people like us want and might be disappointed without, the data tells the real story.

I really try to avoid Ignoring people online (the literal only exception to that is OmnitronVariantand it was just because I was getting exhausted, not because I have anything against them 😅). That said, holy moly some of you guys are getting darn neat that point, too! I love reading this thread, except for when I read 3 pages of it and the conversation hasn't budged lol

@CaleBoi25
Don't like what somebody is saying? Label them whatever and ignore them. That's the way of it.

To be fair, people are still judging Switch 2 by holiday sales... just by correct holiday sales rather than the made up ones people were talking about a month or two ago.

I've never ignored anyone of this site - I figure it's easy enough to skim or skip a conversation if I am no longer interested in it and the truly toxic people eventually get banned.

As for this conversation... I just realized we are still in the 'next direct' thread 💀 I know the conversation started out trying to predict whether a new direct was coming based on how major the currently announced games are, but somehow it has turned more into a Switch 2 or 'is Switch 2 worth it' thread type conversation. Whoops...

We should probably all move the conversation here back to predictions, announcements and rumours.

@FishyS
Sure, but part of my point is that holiday sales (correct or incorrect lol) cannot be used to extrapolate broad sales trends, especially when you have a primary competitor offering steep discounts and your own brand is not.

And also yes: We've gone very off track here.

Edit: Also wondering when this thread will be moved to the Switch 2 forum, especially considering the majority of announcements are skewing Switch 2 these days and presumably into the future.