Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Better meaning higher quantity? Because all of these except peach are remasters and AA eshop games. Luigi's mansion 2 from the 3DS being the only announced summer title is especially blatant.

Turns out that TPC announced the Worlds info today at the end of the Europe Championships:

I honestly prefer this approach, let Presents be about games and then announce the rest of the stuff in other ways. Could do without the mobile stuff though.

@GrailUK your comment is just deflection. I'm just saying what I think, and it's the popular opinion, so it's hardly contrary even if it's wrong. You're the one using endless ocean to try and say it's a banner year for nintendo software and claiming the switch 2 isn't coming out until 2027. If anyone is being contrary, it's you.

@Sigran102 I meant better meaning more games/more consistent schedule than 2022, not better games. But also, first half 2022 had multiple sports games and a warriors game so even though all the games were new they weren't really top shelf except for Kirby and Arceus. Given how many people are excited about the Thousand-Year Door remake, I would tentatively rank this half year as similar to early 2022. Time will tell what happens in the second half year. And obviously that is subjective. I was really only pointing out that although it is a slightly light half year, it isn't significantly low compared to some of the previous Switch years.

@Sigran102 But it's summer man! Come on, that's not when you release a big game. When folk go on holiday or just go outside when it's sunny. That's when we get stuff like Mario Tennis or Clubhouse games. It's...expected. In fact one could argue LM2 is maybe higher profile than those two? If Nintendo are sitting on anything huge for Switch, then it's coming in the holidays and they'll let us know...well...between now and June.. They'll push the holiday season. If they don't and if they haven't already, then they may as well just announce the Switch 2 lol. And to add to that, there is still a boat load of stuff I haven't played yet on Switch.

I dunno, what exactly are you wanting them to release? If you know something TELL US!

@Sigran102 And don't get me wrong, my contention is 'quiet' not 'banner'. I'm not dense enough to be ignorant that those years usually contain one of their main franchises. And if by popular opinion, you mean Youtube? Well, that's just one voice to be blunt lol. But to say Nintendo are being quiet is moronic (usually derived from folk just repeating what someone else said.) But everyone saying the same thing doesn't mean they are right, just everyone is grifting the same gig. Read forum. Echo it. Repeat.

@FishyS sports games and warriors games are extremely popular. Strikers ended up not being great, thought it was a big deal for it to finally come back, and switch sports and fire emblem warriors were definitely top shelf games. Every single game on the 2022 list was a new game, while this year only has one so far.

@Sigran102 Switch Sports is an interesting one... it sold crazily well but scored a 6/10 review on this site and generally got pretty bad or mediocre reviews both from reviewers and players. This is where subjectivity comes in. I suspect reviews will say Thousand Year door is much more polished than Switch Sports, but it will also probably sell less.

But we should probably wait for the two May games to come out before we make assumptions on how good they are or how much work went into them. 😆 I agree with you about Luigi's Mansion 2 not seeming exciting... maybe I am wrong though.

@FishyS I dont know about that-TTYD has been sold out at Amazon, right? Plus the hype is unbelievably high. They’re doing decent promotion too
plus any game with Mario in the title is gonna get some money

I don't think it will sell badly, but Paper Mario Origami King sold 3 million versus the 12 million Switch Sports sold. Switch Sports got an automatic boost by being the sequel to the best selling Nintendo game in history, Wii Sports which sold 82 million. Switch Sports did badly by it's own standards, but Thousand Year Door may still sell far less even if it does really well by Paper Mario standards.

@Sigran102 I do take your point on mostly remakes and I agree this is a somewhat lightweight year so far even though they are keeping to approximately a monthly release and have a couple big-ish games.

I do think we are used to being a bit spoiled in the Switch era 😝 Perhaps first half of 2018 is a better comparison to right now — it skipped a month, had 3 ports/remasters, a Kirby game, Labo, and Mario Tennis. Some fairly big games but not too much fundamentally new. Most people (at least in polls around here) rate 2018 as the quietest year of Switch and it is possible this year will be a mirror image With Switch 2 coming next year.

I think TTYD’s biggest challenge is probably going to be Switch 2. If Switch 2 is releasing by the end of March 2025, it’ll get brought up at the Nintendo fiscal year meeting which takes place a bit over 2 weeks before TTYD launches. Confirming Switch 2’s existence may cause havoc with TTYD’s promo cycle as all the talk may shift to 3D Mario, Mario Kart, is Switch 2 powerful enough to run GTA6, etc.

I'm very interested to see sales updates on Super Mario RPG ( which we may see in May). If it kept selling that may be good news for Thousand Year Door also. Hopefully the fact the two games release so close to each other doesn't harm sales.

In terms of success metrics, if Thousand Year Door sells 3 million it will show it sells just as well as completely new Paper Mario games. Or if it manages 5 million... that would beat any Mario RPG game ever I believe; Super Paper Mario and one of the Mario and Luigi games hit 4 million.

The game with the biggest sales potential is Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. That game can sell 5+ million, while the other titles for the 1st half of the year are ~3 million sellers (Peach, Paper Mario) or titles that will be lucky to sell 1 million (Another Code, Mario vs DK, Endless Ocean).

@IceClimbers I think Mario vs. Donkey Kong might be able to coast a bit on the movie focusing on their rivalry and will land somewhere around 2 million. It topped the eShop charts when Another Code never cracked the top 30, which is impressive considering Super Mario Bros. Wonder was still very high-up and is also a 2D Mario (just not a puzzle-platformer built on the foundation of the original DK and its Game Boy remake). Conversely, Luigi's Mansion 2 HD hasn't had any changes revealed beyond a graphical upgrade, and carries a $60 price tag. The original sold well, but I'm not convinced that a decent number of people will skip it until it's cheaper or avoid it completely because they disliked the original. I won't even bother unless they at least let you save in the middle of missions/add more generous checkpoints. I also think Showtime has a shot at being closer to a 5 million seller because it directly targets a demographic of young girls that isn't often the focus for any given releases with the backing of arguably the most iconic female game character...though it's not doing crazy numbers in Japan. 3 million sounds plausible for TTYD, as it's beloved to a similar degree as Super Mario RPG, and that remake managed similar numbers - though it was also the mid-November holiday release window game we see basically every year, which may have helped, and was accompanied by Super Mario Bros. Wonder as a tentpole release, which may have hindered its sales.

From the games we know for this year at this point I'd say TTYD is easily the best seller. With a slight chance of Showtime capturing an audience and overtaking it although I haven't seen much evidence of that yet. I can see TTYD on Switch becoming the best selling Paper Mario in the series. Comfortably. I think it's an easier sell than Super Mario RPG

Whether it's the biggest game this year or not? Depends on how this year plays out. I would expect if there's something like a Wind Waker HD then that'd outsell it. But a lot of the other possibilities? Maybe not. I would expect TTYD to even outsell Prime 4 if that ends up happening TBH

Agreed. For the year, it should comfortably take the top spot for sales. At least what we know so far.

TTYD is looking really well polished. Very beautiful to look at. I am def picking it up, but I need another game. I want to get that 2 pack pass. But I dont think Mansion 2 hd would be worth the price. I am hoping to hear about another game coming later this year, crossing my fingers on the wii u zelda ports lol.

@GrailUK fair enough as far as banner vs quiet. When I say the popular opinion, I mean every site I frequent, including here. I already said I could be wrong, but you didn't say I was wrong, you said I was just being contrary. If what I'm saying is the popular opinion, then I'm not being contrary.

As far as what games I want them to announce? Honestly, I don't care right now. If they do have more big games this year, then great. If they're folding in 2024 to build up software for the switch 2, great. I don't have much time to play games these days anyway, so FFVII Rebirth, Persona 3 Reload, and Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth will last me a very long time. I'll play the heck out of Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion when they come out, and if nothing happens after that, I'll work on my mile long backlog. A slow year for Nintendo doesn't bother me. I'm just saying what I see.

Maybe the difference is just that you don't see the kinds of games Nintendo has this year as lesser than big new AAA releases, and that's a valid opinion. But when you look at the ammount of effort and resources being put into software this year compared to any other non-covid year, it's undeniably less.

@Sigran102 I have and always will enjoy games like Mario Vs DK or Advance Wars. AAA big budget stuff is nice, don't get me wrong, but I love games of all types. So yeah, I will concede that remasters and remakes take less resources to actually research the idea (to create, I wouldn;t like to say and insult the folk who worked hard on them.) I see where you are coming from. I'm just in a position to be less er negative(?) about it I guess.