Sakurai On Smash Ultimate Win Rates: "Any Fighter Has A Shot At Winning"

Samus for life!

That's the ultimate goal of any fighting game. Some can have some superiority over others, but if that gap isn't insurmountable for a lower fighter, then that's the sign of good balance.

If Little Mac can conceivably beat Sonic or Steve, then the balance is achieved. Even if one does win far less.

EDIT: ALSO! Tifa, Shantae, and Shovel Knight for the next Smash!

Sakurai destroys every Smash Bros. tier list with FACTS and LOGIC

(for legal reasons, I have to stress this is a joke)

That doesn't completely rule out the validity of tier lists per se, because those lists are built with the expectation that characters are used to full potential.
Though it is a relief to see that the win/loss differential is nearly razor thin.

His statement isn't entirely true. It's really only true depending on the level you play at. Same deal with weapons in Splatoon.

Isn't 47% considered F tier in these types of games?

Imagine how PERFECT Smash Ultimate is to have this close percentages for over 80 fighters.

Also, Wonder Red for next Smash!

Even Pichu who damages itself in attacks? ⚡

@MasterGraveheart Mind if I shove 1 more Sonic character in there?

My mains are Mario and Ryu.
Its really satisfying when playing online with Ryu, and just smash everyone haha.

Do people actually think it’s impossible to win with a character? Like sure some characters are weaker then others but I will tell you right now that’s not how I felt about Kirby when I play em.

Jigglypuff, my beloved <3

Really puts into perspective the priorities of smash. I think it's still obvious certain fighters are competitively stronger than others, but you're not playing against esport level players online

The balance still isn't perfect imo but given the compromise between millions of fans and 80+ characters I think we got it about as good as we could get. Bowser jr/lemmy for life

Fighting games are always balanced. And good balanced games means no (playable) character is overpowered compared to other (playable) characters. (Of course bosses excluded)

Sure some characters have different fighting styles which means you need to play differently.

In the end it comes down to the skill of the player and some (rng) luck

Come on Sakurai even for a 4-5% difference we still want that tier list!
... I bet my character is in the 47 range.

So which character actually has the highest and lowest win rates?

When I play with some of my friends (which admittedly hasn't happened in a long while), they usually pick heavy fighters like Bowser and Ganondorf. I find that Min Min is quite effective, as she excels in long-range attacks. In fact, I was very nearly close to winning against one of my friends with her, but then the online connection started lagging so severely that it completely turned the tide of battle against me, and I ended up losing the match.

"The internet is an echo chamber."
You don't say? (Looking at the "people" that live on X)

Tier lists only apply at high-level play. If you want to crush people online with Ganondorf, have at it. Just don't expect to make top 8 at Genesis

Also, online.

Those tiny differences can arguably make all the difference at the pointy end of things, but for most of us they don’t really matter.

Given the sheer scope of the game and diversity of characters/play styles/etc, I think Cap’n Sak ’n’ Co. have done a remarkably good job of balancing the whole wibbly-wobbly jelly.

Remember it's not purely statistics, some people know themselves well and know that they will never be good with Little Mac while others play better with him

What about Steve?

This is true for casual play, but in the competitive scene this doesn’t necessarily work.

Villager is my main so this confuses me lol

And then there's me who loses regardless of which character I play lol

@The-Chosen-one It blows my mind that anyone mains Mario.

True. But, some, especially the later additions, are bit over the top in their power, reach/range, combos, etc. And some way over the top.

Having close win rates is good, but doesn't indicate everything necessarily. For example, characters that are genuinely very strong might be weighed down by people who pick them out of their reputation for being strong, only to lose when they're revealed to have no clue how to play them.

It's a real thing that happens in competitive games - a character can get an unambiguous buff that results in their win rate actually lowering for a period of time before eventually stabilizing, because the buff sends tons of new players to the character.

I will send this to all my "Steve is OP/Jigglypuff is awful" friends. :> (I play Plant, BTW. #PlantMainsRiseUp)

@Poodlestargenerica
Hahah yeah, Mario is so satisfying to use in online matches. For me the best allrounder lol.

@The-Chosen-one I think I've played him twice in ultimate haha. But yeah I think like Sakurai said, you play with who you like, and if you're good you will win

He's definitely right, but to a degree. There are some broken characters in Smash and then... well, there's Ganon. You can do well with any character but it's impossible to be the best with any character, if that makes sense. But that's the nature of any competitive game. Ultimate is very, very well balanced overall, though I think the pandemic hampered some the balancing towards the end.

This is correct.

@N00BiSH Flawed logic. He said he got the information from online matches and online match use a matchmaking system to try to make you win about 50% of the time by making you play with increasingly more skilled or less skilled players based of your current win ratio. Character strength couldn't be reliably determined by online matches. There's other issues with this metric as well such as, Online has a notable amount of input lag favoring characters that don't play reactionary as often. Online also doesn't have a unified rule set of stages, Items on/off, FS meter, 1v1s, 2v2s, free for all's. It also often takes time for certain characters to reach there potential sometimes it takes years. Just because he's Masahiro Sakurai doesn't mean he's right about everything. Actual tournaments are still dominated by the top tiers and are very consistent that one of them will win, typically Steve or Game & Watch.

@Yuna-Suzuki bro I was just making a dumb joke relax

@N00BiSH When using sarcasm online you are suppose to use "/s". Assuming it truly was sarcasm. Either way I've seen many echo the same statement so the comment still holds validity to all the people who somehow think Sakurai actually knows how to balance a game.

Of course Sakurai is massively downplaying the issue of character balancing in Smash. There's a reason Nintendo has an infamously prickly relationship with the fighting game tournament scene after all, and a big part of that is because of their philosophy that the game should be seen as inclusive to players of all skill levels. They don't want Smash cultivating an image as some super hardcore fighting game only accessible to 'pro gamers' because they're worried that would limit its appeal to the masses. The real news would be if the game director said anything other than 'sure guys, you can play who you want and still have a great time!'.

Edit: Not that I think the man's actually wrong. Smash really is well balanced given its ludicrous roster size.

I guess… but it’s kinda fractal, isn’t it? I mean pro baseball players and race car drivers, etc, are looking to shave a fraction of a percent, because that can be the difference between the win-lose binary.

Sakurai, creator of the Smash series: presents facts

Most of the people in this comments section: "You're wrong."

@RobTheIII Sure! I'd be down for Dr. Robotnik/Eggman or Knuckles. Heck, Shadow'd be an easy echo fighter once those two (and possibly Tails) are in.

@TheBigK Preaching to the choir here, friend. I enjoy playing, and my friends wanna play with me, but I've been stomped into the ground far too many times, I retreat into my shell at the mere ask if I'm "around."

I've always believed that. I used to enjoy making liars out of tiers or popularity back in the day... good times. But I will say the more intimate you know the strengths and weaknesses between specific character match ups, the better understanding you have with how to deal with who with whatever character.