Media Create Boss Says Switch Will Have A Seven Year Life Cycle, Sales To Grow In Third Year

That's great! Still many many years to come.

If this is their main console still in 2022 let alone 2024 Nintendo will be in big trouble. 2022 will be 1-2 years into the PS5 and whatever Microsoft will call their newest console. I have to believe, at the very least, that the Switch version that will be their main console in the 2020-24 time period will be an enhanced model much like the New 3DS.

I think the big game companies would like all games to be streamed by then but I reckon a lot of people's home Internet connections still won't be up to scratch.

If it does happen though, the Switch might have a way longer lifespan than 7 years. All you'd need is to download the streaming app; the hardware is easily good enough already.

@Amrulez Maybe a Switch successor will be planned for spring 2022 to compete with next gen consoles.

"The same report states that Wall Street analysts are divided on this thought, with some expecting the console to shift fewer units next year as opposed to the current year."

Haha nope. Mario Maker 2, Fire Emblem, Luigi, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Zelda. Next FY's sales will be insane, no doubt about it.
For the current FY though, they should easily close with 18 millions units shipped, putting the Switch at nearly 36 millions in 25 months

A bit too long though... 4gb in today gaming is not enough. We won't get the full experience though as some games were meant to. I hope Nintendo will support the 1st Switch up to 5 years instead 7 years. Stop milking it and give a better hardware so we can even get more games. Make it happen!

@RickD Wii sales peaked in 2008; which is the point a lot of newcomers got tired of playing Wii Sports, realised gaming wasn't for them and packed the console away. It's crazy how few copies some Wii games sold considering it sold 100 million units. Anyway, they had no reason to continue supporting it after 2012/13:

@Alucard83

Exactly my thought, like I said if the Switch is still being supported in 2024 it had better be an enhanced "PRO" version of the present Switch if not a whole new console by that time.

Digital Only, 100% Streaming = Doomsday of Video gaming hobby.
I will start to collect more Retro games that i still haven't played before, ignoring the Dark Future that created by human's foolishness.

I just hope nintendo just keep the switch idea and not make a new console as the switch idea is nintendos best

A model revision is a must if they wanna take it to 2024 cos switch games are gonna start to look a bit behind especially when we get a new PlayStation and Xbox

7 years? if that's the case there will need to be a revision along the lines of it being more powerful/capable I think with regards to making it possible to have more current games developed for it. ps5/neXtbox 3rd party games will be a stretch too far so we can forget about those.

I hope so. I mean, that would be more than reasonable. Less is not enough.

7 years is way too long for this current hardware. From next year or maybe the year after I reckon Nintendo should release a revised version of the Switch (much more powerful than the current one). Otherwise they won't have the necessary support from third party devs.

If games go digital or streaming only, then I will not be playing the new console.

Honestly no problem with that. I find the only people who want shorter console lifespans are those who bought them at launch at are getting bored of them. In many cases consoles aren’t worth buying until some time has passed and games that truly make use of the console’s unique abilities were developed. Even the Switch fell into this; unless you really wanted its Handheld mode abilities Breath of the Wild was freely available on the Wii U; of course that depended on whether you had a Wii U to begin with. My experience is that a good number of a console’s greatest titles come out late in a console’s lifespan when developers know its inside and outs.

Of course, as this Gen has shown, people are okay with multi-variant console’s with actual performance variations rather than just device design, storage and connectors.

In short, I’m good with waiting till 2024.

I can agree with the switch having it's best year in 2019... However, there are 2 things to consider:

1 - lack of a new hardware from Sony/MS will help push it's sales since most active gamers already have a PS4/Xbox

2 - Sales of the console might not continue to be this great after the new consoles get to the market, specially if the switch still lacks big game names for people who just don't care about Nintendo franchises.

So, my advice for Nintendo would be to start immediately making deals with third parties to include switch on their planned releases and also paying for the development of some exclusives.

Astral chain and bayo 3 are nice, but it need a From Software exclusive, talk to Activision to bring some special call of duty to the switch (or make a marketing deal to promote the game with switch banners and stuff, like the other companies do).

Make the mass gamers aware that the console will have all other games and that they don't need a ps5 or xbox3 to play the latest Battlefield, or Need for Speed, or gta or whatever...

Sure, playing Indies are great on the switch (just finished steamworld dig 2, love it!) buy i miss seeing some big names on the eshop.

If I'm not mistaken, the former president Tatsumi Kimishima said that they could make different Switch models like they did with 3DS/2DS and New 3DS/2DS and has you know, the New versions are upgraded ones. So I think that they should make an upgraded Switch for when Sony announces the PS5, PSZ or whatever it is called. I don't see a digital future possible because fiscal has benefits that digital doesn't have, and also because we will need like a 8G or 9G Internet for it to be speedy enough to make downloading in 15-45 minutes because most games nowadays have a lot of Giga Bytes. Not to mention that future games will take even more Giga Bytes, so I don't see digital becoming more desirable until 2040 and that's if they let us completely own the game, sell it and do whatever we want with the digital game. And as we know, that would not sit well with any gaming company, whether be Nintendo, Microsoft or Sony, so basically it will only happen in a perfect world.

I flippen love my Switch, so does my son. That is all.

I believe it.
And it will be harder than ever to predict what the next thing is going (or will have) to be.

Which is exciting!

People seem to think the Switch hardware will be outdated when PS5 lands, but I can't see PS5 being that much of a jump over PS4. The gap in power and performance is getting smaller with each console generation.
To be honest I'm expecting to barely be able tell the difference between a PS5 game and a PS4 one.
Is Sony wants to stay in power then they are going to need more then a slighty more powerful box next gen.

@nintendorules exactly this! This needs to be the new model of consoles forever. We don't need any new fancy gimmicks now. Just give us a Switch 2 with a higher res screen, bigger battery, more storage, thinner, lighter, more powerful all round... I'd love for there to be a 3D version.

So we can expect the "Switch needs to die" articles and comments, like the 3DS got, from about 2022 then? Good to know.

If current trends continue into the rest of 2019, Switch sales in 2019 will be up by ~40% YoY in Japan.

So yeah, the Switch will obviously sell more in FY2019 than in FY2018 unless it tanks in the west, which looks impossible given that western sales are up by 25-30% YoY based on data that's available.

I don't know why investors think Switch was are going to dip next fiscal year, because they obviously wont.

@RainbowGazelle
3DS hardware and software sales in 2018/2019 have been terrible. If Switch sold as much hardware and software in 2022/2023 as the 3DS did in 2018/2019, then yes, it should be dead.

Thankfully, it seems like Kirby Extra Epic Yarn will be the last first party flop that Nintendo will release on 3DS.

@Manzoli They better already have some of those plans in motion. By the time the new systems hit they will be 2 generations behind system power wise and down scaling will look 2 generations worse then now if third parties even bother.

@Amrulez Why does everyone on the block believe this?

Nintendo has faced competition before in the same area and the units were still supported sometimes even without a new Pro model. We didn't for example see a Wii U Pro. Sure the Wii U was considered a failure but similarly the Wii sold in the face of the PS3 and the looming PS4.

The point there is that third party either already made a difference by not appearing on the console or didn't.

Power isn't what drives sales, a solid vision and having the right games to drive home that vision is.

If you look at the DS vs PSP, or the 3DS vs PSV based on that logic the DS should have been annihilated by the coming of the more powerful PSP and the PSV which we all know didn't happen.

This time the Switch has about a two year head start from the competition.

People often say they will lose their third party support which will lead to the end of the console but the third party two years in still isn't here and likely was never going to be here until they see what PS5 and Xbox Next does next.

If I was Activision or Ubisoft or whoever AAA publisher, I would wait to see how Sony and Microsoft response before supporting Nintendo in the first place so it makes no difference whether the Switch launched today, yesterday or tomorrow.

Anyway, my point is that Nintendo will do the Nintendo thing. I'm not saying there's going to be no iteration or there is going to iterations.

All I know is that they will assess the market and calculate whether it is better to continue supporting this console into 2020 and beyond, roll out an iterative one or a sequel.

My guess is that this year will be their biggest year yet selling 20+ million units alone. There's a lot of games incoming and their third year is looking lit.

This would leave 2020 to be a repeat of 2017 (or 2018) depending on their games and probably moving anything from 15-25 million units.

A Switch mini (and or perhaps a Switch Pro) will likely then make sense coming out that year to reinvigorate the market driving sales for 2020 by another 10-20 million or so units.

The only reason why they will be doing this is not because they will be "in trouble" but because early adopters seriously have a graphics problems and generally don't play any real underground games that come later in the consoles cycle.

They're all about big AAA titles and having the best graphics so they will always be looking for the next big thing and Nintendo release a new console or an iterative console is to capture this market before Sony and Microsoft does.

You will notice that Nintendo hasn't been rolling out any real iterative home consoles only the handhelds and either this has help the sales of competition who has perhaps waited for that Wii Pro or Wii U Pro or whatnot or it hasn't done made any real difference at all.

@Spoony_Tech The Wii sold fine.

I don't know why people think this is an issue.

If you think AAA third parties cares about Nintendo in the first place then that is the problem. Name me one real big third party game on the Switch right now?

So what difference does it make that it will be two generations behind the competition. Right now it is arguable not even one generation behind and largely selling on Nintendo exclusives alone.

I hope to be playing it in decades to come.

This machine may eventually run every Nintendo platform made to this day (with the possible exception of DS and 3DS). In that way it'll be my main retro console in the future.

@RainbowGazelle I know right. So stupid.

Fan who only care about graphics and worry because the PS5 is going to be powerful and will make the Switch two generation behind.

Tell that to the Wii.

We didn't see a Wii Pro or a Wii U Pro either. Don't see people complaining about that.

@westman98 Because sales are so important.

Seriously the Vita was a flop too and the PSP was defeated by the DS. Do anyone care about the quality games it produced because it didn't "sell" as well as it should?

Maybe they should have made more and better iterations for them?

@westman98 I think they mean fiscal year of 2020 where the Switch will probably drop back to 2018 or 2017 numbers based on supposed lower output of bigger games.

Retina, make it have an even better battery life (i have no problems with 4/5 hours currently depending on the brightness setting and game) a bit thinner (naturally) and lighter and were good for a couple more years.

Had ps4 pro & xbox one x, but eventually people (I) get tired of aiming with L1/L2 and shoot with R2/R1 icm interact with X or SQUARE.

The switch has so much to offer for literally anyone who has burned out on the old "style" of console. Graphics race is pointless, and if the games share 90% of each others mechanics what fun is there to be had.

My 2c.

More games though, not just shovelware please.

#ALSO# Bloomberg is just ehm....well bloomberg. Today mention the news that shares on Boeing have slumped because of the air ethiopia crash eventhough the slump allready happend march 1st.

@dystome If 4k graphics are so earthshattering, they can always make a home console again if they need to and have the Switch act as a Wii U 2.0. That'll be interesting.

But most likely they will sell an iteration of the Switch because they know the market is there an people want that over a Home Console.

Sad but true.

@Fuz Says the people who abandoned cartridges for cheap disks.

While I do love the Switch idea, I’d still like a Nintendo console powerful enough to run and get the same 3rd party multiplats as the other consoles.

@NintendoFan4Lyf Most likely it will stick to a modified Maxwell architecture for backwards compatibility reasons especially if this is a Switch Pro we are talking about.

I just can’t see it happening.

@Nomad

The performance gap between the PS4 and PS5 will easily fall into a 60-70%+ upgrade over the base PS4 (based off the Radeon 7970 laptop gpu) vs whats already been a speculated of Radeon Navi (which will most likely be a more efficient version of the current Vega 56/64 cards).

That's a pretty significant upgrade even over the PS4 Pro btw.

I want a docked only Switch to match my PC (Ryzen 2600X and a 1080ti)

@locky-mavo Then a home console is the way to go.
Mobile tech is mobile.

@Manzoli I think Nintendo went the GameCube route again with the Switch and it isn't enough. Mainstream games like CoD are not likely to come to the Switch unless we see 64GB cartridges introduced at a cheap price and the Switch can handle the multiplayer aspect of it without any hiccups.

So far, we know that is not the case.

@Retsam

I really wish Nintendo would just eat the cost of the carts and be done with it. I avoid every game that does the dreaded half the game on the cart and then download crap.

I either wait for a revised edition later on or get it on PC instead.

@TurboTEF Nintendo has many possibly from a Dock to a full fledge console to iterations which will probably flair better in sales. A full fledge console makes more sense for what you want as the Switch can then be an expensive GamePad. Wii U 2.0 anyone?

Haven't though about what they can do with a dock though. Most likely it will have to be backwards compatible with the original OG Switch meaning it will be limited to USB 3.0 speeds instead of Thunderbolt.

I guess they can sell us a Steam-like box?

@TurboTEF I get what you mean but cost is probably a bit too high. Even at $1 for 64GB that'll be like 6 million dollars for a typical AAA game that sells that many copies. That's enough for them to make a new whole game to sell to us which they'll rather do!!!!

@Jango296 I dunno, just sales wise the Switch has already ensured it won't be a dreamcast? Like one of the big problem is the dreamcast sold only 9 million units in its lifespan(even the WiiU sold more lifetime units than that in its 4 year lifespan) whereas the Switch is in its second year over with sales roughly in par with the PS4 in it's own second year.

@Nomad that's the thing.i do expect a lot of hardcore fans to make the jump but I wouldn't be surprised if the mainstream market would end up shrugging for a bit if the games selection doesn't feel that much different than the PS4.

Heck, one of my boss at work only just bought his kid his first PS4 console last year.
I don't see him getting a PS5 anytime soon when he just splurged for a full price PS4 Pro which his kid only just started playing.

@Savino if it last a 7 year cycle we'll likely see a Switch Pro or at the very least a console revision with better battery life/etc. But with how much mileage the current console has got in two years alone I don't see a new model releasing until next year at the very least which would put a new model roughly in the middle of the console intended lifespan.

@Savino There was no Wii Pro or Wii U Pro which is a shame really. (I think to be honest the Wii U was the Wii Pro people wanted but didn't. It sold about the amount of one.)

I think it is honestly hard for Nintendo's position to make an iteration. From a marketing perspective its not just about customer demand for better specs but iterations usually spell the "end" of a line and is about a compatibility thing. The last thing you want is to drive your previous customer base away if the unit is selling well and kill momentum. We all know new hardware doesn't automatically mean renewed momentum.

That said, it would make sense to roll out a Switch Mini in 2020 and and/or perhaps a Switch Pro in 2022 if not in 2020. Mid generation migrations would force Sony and Microsoft to up their game with a PS5 Pro and people will either eat it up or get peeved.

The best card Nintendo has right now however is the mysterious one.

No one know what Nintendo will do next. That's a good thing and a bad thing.

They could at any moment rejoin the console wars with a uber powerful console that stream games to the Switch like the Wii U Gamepad did.

They could roll out a dock mid way between that and push all streaming consoles.

They could roll out an iterative stop gap that prepares us for the next generation of console like the DSi.

And so on.

Many possibility are to be had here.

Nintendo is out of the business of competing with Sony and Microsoft horse power. The next Switch will have ports of PS4 games. I’d love a Nintendo console that is at least as powerful as the top console, but those days are gone.
I just want more top tier Nintendo games. Not the second tier games that most would agree are 7s. I want them to take their franchises to the next level and not hd rehashes. Mario Kart 8 did that (5 years ago). BOTW did that. Most everything else has been flat in innovation.

@Retsam

Oh, I agree but was mostly ranting at how pubs cheap out on the 8-16g carts.

@WOLF13 I dunno. I think they are doing just fine. I would buy a Nintendo console if it could kept up with the competition and actually did one thing play Blu-Ray movies, etc which are honestly a dying trend now.

I personally bought a Wii U but I remember that feeling of disappointment when I first heard about it that it was barely better then a PS3 Pro and didn't play movies.

Ended up getting a used PS3 after getting the Wii U and didn't really play with the Wii U before selling it. I was literally out of gaming for seventh generation during and was going to skip that whole generation but my bro ended up getting a Wii from his gf at the time.

Oh dear, analysts and their non-gaming goggles.

You're not going to have hardware sales peak in a month where no major release is happening. Yoshi isn't THAT big, so April sales won't be carried by that either. There's absolutely nothing suggesting sales will be anything but lower or equal to what they've been for the past few months now.

Market analysis are going to do what they need to do (and say) to make sure they have the outcome they want on stocks. Their opinions generally are about as good as reading tea leaves or throwing random dice.

That said, if Nintendo supports the console for seven years and has third parties supporting it then who cares. I became a lot happier in the Wii U era by not paying attention to what I didn't own, and I am continuing the philosophy now.

@RickD

A big reason the Wii got discontinued was because Nintendo had vastly underestimated how quickly HD took off around 2009-2010 or so. Between that and what @Octane said that casual gamers just got tired of the console is why it had a faster death than what Nintendo initially expected. So, I think it was a two-fold problem that got the Wii discontinued, and why Nintendo basically abandoned it in the first 6 months of the Wii U launch. When people first switched over to HD, then turned their Wii on, it was apparent just how quickly the system aged. Once you went to HD, you didn't want to go back, so new Wii sales slipped, hard.

How wrong was the guy. Next Gen console is totally gonna annihilate Nintendo Switch. Games are becoming harder to develop here.

In the NDS/ Psp days developers would churn out B grade games while their AAA are in development process, therefore plenty of games can be seen on these consoles.

Today B grade games could no longer sell thx to the mobile market, developers then adapted to developing their AAAs and go multiplats or port after which. With the switch incapable of handling these games, it will plummet.

Switch will need to rely on their 1st Party. Look how much of an upgrade Botw / Oddyssey gotten. Sadly that is as far as they go. The rest of their IP, unheard of and remained the same casual shallow games.....no more innovation.

Not a failure compared to the WiiU, but still a fail console in the game industry.

@RickD

There is evidence, it came straight from Miyamoto:

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/07/shigeru_miyamoto_wanted_to_go_to_hd_sooner_with_the_wii

"However, HD became more common about 2 to 3 years earlier than we had anticipated. A main part of that was that the prices for HD televisions manufactured overseas had gone down at an unthinkable pace. So, as a result, while we were right in the middle of selling the Wii, the TVs in people’s living rooms were slowly becoming HD sets. Overseas especially people had never so rapidly and drastically changed their hardware to the newest technology but in America as well HD TVs became standard little by little."

Maybe that wasn't a big deal for you, and we often talk about how resolutions are sort of a dumb conversation, but the jump from SD to HD was a big jump. One you can easily tell, even if you're not tech savvy. These days it doesn't matter so much with the debate on 1080p or 4K, but you can really tell a SD set vs a HD one, and was a big reason the Wii dropped off fast in it's remaining days. It just didn't look good on an HD television.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Switch last that long or longer. I mean the 3DS went strong for a good 8 years and I have every expectation that the Switch will easily match it and likely exceed it. But assuming Sony and Microsoft don't blow it, I expect the Switch's first 3 years to be it's absolute peak and then a modest 3-4 years after that because the more powerful traditional machines that will be offered by rivals will pull some people away.

This year however will see a brand new generation of Pokemon, not a spin off, come to the Switch, and I fully expect Sword and Shield to massively drive sales. Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem will both push a modest number as well. Link's Awakening should be another bright spot for Nintendo.

Plus the Switch is getting a steady flow of solid indie titles, a growing library of niche games like Visual Novels and other atypical releases that you rarely find elsewhere now that the Vita has faded. The Switch now dominates the market for dedicated portable gaming devices - with full, native, simple to use TV support and if Nintendo can seize that niche, they will do just fine.

Here we go again Trolls trolling for trolling sakes. What I don't hear is how they want a xbox. ps? that can go portable and Docked. We have NintenDoomed fans acting as Nintendo gamers is really sad here. They said 7 years lifespan plan but they latch onto that and say oh they will wait 7 years. Get a life people. All you think is about clickbait but you failed a big one. If you don't get gamers of all strips, age, gender you will not survive that is a Fact but they seem to miss that already. Nintendo has already shown for a ahem (underpowered) they can push the so called others around and scare them to rush release a new version. Those newer couch console with upgraded graphics are going to do what? Nothing you can only push 4K so far and if I wanted to push 4K I would build a dedicate 4K gaming Desktop that will blow away xbox or ps? anytime of the day. Oh and a Laptop already have 4K with Nvidia 2.x.x GPU and be portable so stop your useless NintenDoomed fandom and get a better outlook in life first.

Sounds like someone has been crystal ball shopping on Alibaba

My switch has been gathering dust lately. But this is because I bought a PS4 last year due to the lack of new non-indie games on Switch. I'd rather buy a AAA game on PS4 than an indie for the same price.
I'll gladly come back to the Switch if Nintendo releases a good exclusive and would even buy a New Switch if they decide to upgrade the hardware

I mean, what console doesn't last at least that long unless it's a failure like WiiU? PS aims for 10 year life cycles, though some of that is overlap with new hardware. I would think in this age that's just a given.

We would finally get a good online service by then. I wonder, would it be difficult if Nintendo just ported the Virtual Console from the WiiU to the Switch?

As long as the games keep coming.
i hope nintendo brings an updated version of the switch earlier than 7 years

It’ll take time for PS5 and the next Xbox to catch up with Switch sales (by the launch time I expect it’ll be way past the 50 million mark). And in some markets it’ll never happen (Japan). I think for the first couple of years after next generation consoles launch we’ll see quite a few games (not just the yearly games like FIFA) be released simultaneously on all 5 consoles, until the twins fade into irrelevancy completely replaced by their next gen counterparts just like XB360 and PS3.

And by 2024, people will finally get a successor with PS4 graphics. Great.

I see either full Switch successor route like holiday 2021/early 2022 or the Switch Pro route where Pro launches 2020 and Switch successor launches holiday 2023/spring 2024.

In 7 years time, I hope we are still playing on dedicated consoles (I'm sorry, I love my iPhone and iPad, but they SUCK as sole gaming machines....I'm not interested in touch-only future or attaching bulky weird peripherals). I also don't want 100% digital only. I like owning a hard copy of a game (both to display on my shelf and to have the option of selling it or trading it in for another game if I choose to). I like having digital for some games like Animal Crossing which make sense to have an always-on option but I don't want all my games to solely be digital. Also, think of the economic impact. Think of all the other stores that will close and all the people that will lose their jobs if we go 100% digital. And forget about finding those lost gem games at the bottom of a discount bin. And I don't want to stream 100% of my games. Again this comes down to me wanting to OWN my games, and not be at the whim of a company who can take the game away whenever they want. Also not everywhere has great internet infrastructure. Canada might have good coverage in our urban areas but we also have vast rural and remote regions where fast internet hasn't penetrated to yet and we also have the most expensive internet of the G8 countries. It's not feasible to eat up all our bandwidth playing games. And we still don't have powerful enough connections to maintain constant frame rates. I know this is where those no-nothing Wall Street analysts want us to go to but come on, it's just not feasible and I would argue that most true gamers don't want that future. A mix of everything is fine, choice is always good. But I don't want 100% streaming only, 100% digital only, or 100% gaming on a smart device. No thank you. Not the future I want.

I really hope there is home console option that can run 3ds games where the current Switch is basically a Wii U gamepad.

@Retsam The issue of cartridges vs discs was that of size. I do love my 64 though. Nintendo really should have just built the 64 DD into the system instead of announcing it a year before the console came out.

It looks like Nintendo paid attention to the boom of mine gaming. Nintendo deffentily set a high bar by bring it's franchises to a mobile platform, yet appeases the home experience.

@SwitchForce Dude please quit white knighting Nintendo.

I do agree on graphics, but that's where the market is heading. I still play SNES/64/GC/Xbox/PS2 regularly.

You want more people in gaming, yet people in general are consumerist. Plus a lot of people how "love" the Switch were talking about what they wanted in the next console when I bought mine in Oct of 2017. They also take offense to playing anything Nintendo on anything that isn't a Switch. "Nintendo fan" eh? People are dumb man.

I don't know if we have seven years worth of old ports, eventually we're gonna catch up with the ps4 and we're going to need new hardware for those ports.

sounds about right.

Erm, Switch is almost certainly going to perform better in year 3.

First year: 2.74 million units
Second year: 15.05 million
Third year: 14.5 million with 3 months left to go

I suspect it'll last a bit longer, but seven years for the Switch sounds like a reasonable estimate.

As for where gaming will be by 2024-2025....With some revisions to certain practices, going mostly digital wouldn't be bad; I tend to stick to physical releases in most cases but also understand that the market for physical is dwindling. Streaming-only is when I'd strictly become a retro gamer.

Business forecast can change at any time, just like weather forecast, so info like this I take with a grain of salt. The games industry can shift focus which can drive decisions Nintendo makes. For now, the only certain thing is to enjoy Switch "today", and that is what I'm doing.

@Amrulez
I think the next gen systems from Microsoft and Sony will be harder to sell than people might think especially if the big selling point on them is “more power” once again. Release after release the graphical gains we’ve seen as hardware improves has shrank steadily to the point where they are becoming far less obvious. Take for example my PC it has a GTX1080Ti in it and games maxed out in 4k look incredible, take a screen shot though, and take a screen of the same game from an Xbox X and the images are nearly identical to your average consumer. Where my Pc shines is how fluid games run in 4k or 1440p.
Now imagine the mass market, they see games that look the same or only slightly nicer than what they’ve seen on their PS4 and they are asked to spend $400-$500 for the privelage of playing. I don’t think people will be quick to buy unless they bring something more to the table. But only time will tell I guess.

Digital streaming only I hope not!!!
Switch till 2024 good news. I’m still playing the legendary SNES will be till I cant game anymore. Hell If it was up to me Nintendo would still be making games for SNES:) not to worry about switch.

@Dilated personally I would say your analysis is not top far off.

Beyond just the limitation of just stronger hardware approach I think the big issue is not even just "but how much stronger?" but rather the fact that the issue we've started seeing already with the PS4 Pro and it's equivalent at Microsoft: the increasingly noticeable barrier to enjoying "better graphics" that don't even involve the consoles themselves.

The TV monitors consoles are being played on in the first place.

It increasingly doesn't matter anymore what resolution games can run in if the majority of the mainstream gaming public still play on TVs too small to truly appreciate the "upgrade" and that's a criticism I began to see as recently as the PS4 Pro versus the regular PS4, with people noting that with some games you needed something like a 70in HDTV to truly appreciate the difference.

So we're not just talking about the expense of buying a new console but a note TV altogether where for many people a 42-50in is still plenty large enough of a screen.

And even if monitor prices come down, we're still talking about an enormous piece of screen that require a decent level of interior decor logistics to think about. Not everyone is going to buy such a large screen even if they can because they may well decide it clashes with what they want their living room to look like. It's not because one "can" that they will necessarily "want".

Which is why Sony and Xbox will need to figure something spectacular, I feel they may have a hard time continuing with just that path.

The Switch is not perfect but it may be able to stand out because, indeed, it very just "enough" for most people and don't need to leave them asking if they need to redo their entire living room for a newer large box of a console they might not be able to truly enjoy the power of without buying a new enormous screen taking up half of the living room's wall space by itself alone. And that's all factors not even discussing prices yet.

@Retsam Hi Retsam. Are you answering the right post? Your reply doesn't really seem to relate to my message at all – unless I'm missing something?

I hope it maintains a long cycle but in the scheme of things there are well over 1000 titles so I doubt I will run out of things to play.

@RickD Wasn’t the Wii struggling during the last couple of years of its lifespan? I remember it going from the media and industry darling, to being seen as the system with tons of shovel ware and a controller your suppose to waggle.

@Dilated

I don't disagree with your comment for the most part. Trust me they will sell a ton of new consoles because new games will start to be made for those consoles and gamers will buy those systems. My point is it will be nay impossible to bring games that are made for even the high end PS4 Pro or XBOX One X over to Switch let alone the new games that will surely come out for their new consoles. It is a matter of ports, Nintendo is living now mostly off of indie games and their own games. Very few triple A titles that appear first on the PS4/XB1 come to the Switch. Imagine if the same Nintendo Switch is Nintendo's main console in 2021? There will literally be no ports at all. Maybe there will be a lot more Nintendo produced releases in the future once the 3DS is no longer being supported. They still will need to upgrade this system so they can add more memory and a bit more power. To not do so for 2021 and beyond is IMO a mistake.

@Retsam

Good post but the system needs to be at least powerful enough to allow great developers to port games to the system. I can live with Doom style ports on my Switch any day of the week. But to continue to do so with the other system sellers going up again in specs the Switch as it stands now will need more memory and a bit more CPU/GPU power. It is inevitable unless you want to see no ports at all by 2021. Just my opinion..

@Retsam

There are multiple triple A 3rd party games on the Switch right now. They are older games though, like the "new" Doom and Doom 2 and Skyrim etc. If the system was more powerful you would see a ton more. And Indie games are mostly driving the Switch and some Nintendo releases. Triple A game makers will support Nintendo when they can make games that will be portable in some form to what Nintendo's console can play. No way does this system stay just as successful in 2022/23/24 with the same specs it has now.

@Manzoli

I'm not sure I agree. I don't really see too many PS4 or Xbox One owners wanting to buy a switch. Even if Nintendo can get 3rd parties to offer the same game on Switch (a big if since the Switch is significantly less powerful than the other consoles), the Switch version will always be gimped in some way or another.

I really can't see a 7 year life span for the Switch. It's just not strong enough.

@TurboTEF Aye, but I'm thinking the games wont look or play much different to what they do now, and there will be even fewer devs out there that can max out that potential while the smaller game indie scene continues to grow.
I could be wrong and PS5 could be a powerthouse but its looking like that's just not enough these days, that's one reason Switch's play anywhere hybrid nature works so well. I guess we'll find out soon.

@brunojenso That reply was for someone else. Sorry, I meant to agree with you there but must have screwed up.

@Amrulez Another long post.

My point was that I prefer third party games that highlight its features like Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle. Third-party games built for the system. They're...okay. Above average at least and exciting. There's games like Starlink as well but people say it is boring. I have the game and it isn't lighting the world on fire.

Yes, you're right of course, it does have SOME third party and while DOOM is great and overpriced mind you, it is STILL missing out on a lot of third party games especially the impactful ones. Unless it got some thing to the scope of Tomb Raider, Beyond Good and Evil 2 or Cyberpunk 2077 which peaks people's interests, its never going to be able to compete with home consoles from a power front.

If they want third party support, it is better for them to provide a home console system that actually has those third party games and stream it to the Switch like a Wii U 2.0.

Unless it was as powerful as a PS5 or higher, no amount of power will every get you the latest games from AAA developers that actually have hype around them and people actually want to own or play.

We'll still be getting ports of older games.

And if it was that powerful, Sony would have rolled out a Switch-like device not a home console. They're not stupid of course.

Also the DS had far MORE third party support then the PSP, good and bad but so what? Did most people care.

My point is not to diss on Nintendo or Sony but to say that competition is generally fair. A hybrid device will always be behind a home console in power unless Nintendo had really amazing engineers and even then it will have a time and place and the "right" iteration. I would argue that the Switch is a continuum of their GameBoy line and is really providing the same sort of gaming experiences.

That said, hardware isn't everything. There's the OS to consider and software that actually make a new Switch a hit. Nintendo will need an online network that people accept and software features that will stand out from this version of the Switch.

You'll be surprised that the Switch can stay just as successful as it is without an iteration if Nintendo knows what it is doing but I would believe that there is most likely an iteration along the way.

What about the PS2? or the Wii? History isn't always a good indicator but the DS, Wii and PS2 did pretty good did it not?
There was no PS2 Pro, or Wii Pro and all three were the weaker system of their generation.

So by no means does specs (and iterations) drive sales. Nor just games or exclusives. Sometimes out of sheer luck, it is just the right time and the right place. The PS2 was so OG because it was that HD transition phrase and most people didn't make the jump yet.

HD, why? They say. I just want to play 480p DVDs which were awesome and still am. "Once you go to HD though you didn't turn back." They say.
4k has a faster adoption rate then HD TVs and now there's a the crowd that claims to be saying that 4k isn't relevant. Why they say?
Blu-Ray on the other hand isn't selling as well as DVDs. You'll think that it being HD and 4k people would adopt it faster but apparently not.

Of course I could write another essay as to why that is the case but going with this 4k consoles might do better then people would think.

So to be honest with you, I think the reason why Nintendo isn't pulling the number is because they are on the wrong side of revolution not because of hardware. Some people claim they don't know better or are family oriented. Others say they do this on purpose.

Honestly, sometime I do get the feeling that Nintendo is trying to be counter revolutionists with their hardware. Or they are just late to the party.
If we compare the Wii to the PS2, then they actually lost even if you include GameCube numbers into the fay. Over 155 PS2 to 123.37 GC and Wii.

So if the HD competition was able pull over X360(80 million)+early XBO (35+ million) numbers, assuming they come last again for being late to the party, the Switch + Wii U should be able to pull at least 115 million. Meaning the Switch will do Wii numbers again.

Since we are at it, we're already sold 32 million as of March 2019. Assume they sell another 30 million this coming year and 20 the year after that's 82 million by March 2021 and that's 4 year into the party. Assuming a steady 15 million after that for 3 years that's 127 million units sold.

@Yogsoggoth
The switch isn’t about having downgraded versions of what’s offered on Xbox and PlayStation. The switch is it’s own thing. Nintendo IP’s, Indy’s (I’m not big on) and last gen AAA ports that are now able to be played on the go, which has made the console gain traction and success.
I agree that this idea that it’s gonna last as long as they are saying is ansurd. But what I can see is the switch becoming like an iPhone where Switch 2 releases but previous switch titles work on it and we have some games that work on switch but are enhanced on switch 2 and slowly less and less games come out for switch and are solely for switch 2.

@Dilated @Yogsoggoth
Am I the only one who see a 7 year old Switch without a Switch 2 (maybe a Switch Pro and a Switch mini)?

People keep forgetting about the GameCube, Wii and 3DS is really kinda versing the PS2 and PSP from a specs sense.
The Wii was able to sell 101.63 million units after HD became prominent. Just as the PS2 was still pushing number into the PS3 era.
Nintendo lost that generation by a mile if we compared generation by hardware specs.

Again, the N64 and DS were vs PlayStation One specs wise. Sony had no portable device at the time.

Similarly compare the HD competition the X360 and early XOne and I think the Wii U + Switch will do similar numbers. 120 million is my "best guess" for how many the Switch + Wii U will do. I think recent Nintendo tend to have the flop first and success later but overall still losing out to the competition that is Sony PS3, early PS4 and PSV sales combined.

Not sure who will win out in 4k yet but Sony is off to a good start PS4 Pro.

Also I believe after the Switch Nintendo may go into mobile market with 4k foldable VR phones now a thing.

@Retsam No worries mate, I was use confused for a moment.

I remember Iwata wanted to copy the models from how phones work. Which would mean that, in essence, end of this year could see a new switch with upgraded internals. The old one still completely supported, just with a lower quality setting.

Then, later on, switch will have another revision. this time, switch 3 has some games that require switch 2 at minimum. This current model will then still play a lot of games, just not all of them.

Something like that.

@Retsam

Ugh, the Gamecube didn't sell and it was the most powerful consoles, so Nintendo should always make underpowered consoles argument.

The gamecube didn't sell because 1) it looked like a child's lunch box

and 2) everyone wanted a PS2. The PS1 had curb stomped the N64 and introduced so many new game series (Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, Metal Gear Solid, Twisted Metal, etc...) that no one cared what Nintendo was doing.

The Wii was successful because of the low price (half the price of a PS3) and the motion control gimmick which inspired retirement homes across America to purchase a console.

I really think you are way too bullish on the Switch. I doubt it will get anywhere near 120 million because people really do care about things like raw power. As the PS5 and Xbox Next roll out, the graphical differences and frame rate differences will become even more stark than they are now. Switch owners will see even fewer games than they already do being announced for the system. Will yet another Kirby that looks and plays just like the last be enough to keep people happy? I don't know, but I really doubt it.

@Dilated

But downgraded titles is the reality of the Switch. Why would anyone want to play Fortnite at 30 fps when everyone else is playing it at 60 fps. I really don't understand why Switch owners would want cross play since the difference in fps puts Switch owners at a serious disadvantage. Also, PS4 for a remastered version of Dark Souls that runs at 60 fps while Switch got a remastered of the Xbox 260 Dark Souls at 30 fps (with drops into the 20s), overly compressed sound, and some graphical issues that look even worse than last gen games.

Sure people buy Nintendo products to play Nintendo games, but Nintendo just isn't the company they used to be (at least for me). I've watched the trend with Nintendo series is to become easier with fewer features since the N64 (Compare Mario Tennis 64 to Mario Tennis WiiU or Mario Tennis Switch)

@Yogsoggoth
I would be curious to see the numbers percentage wise of how many players are playing fortnight on switch vs PS4/X1/PC I’m betting it’s a small percent because it’s an online competitive game and people will play where their friends are. Never been big on fortnight, I prefer realistic military shooters like Socom personally.
I don’t think there’s a switch owner out there overly concerned with Frames per second unless it’s just atrocious. portable Dark Souls 30 is fine if it isn’t for some people and 60 is needed then buying the switch was their 1st mistake.
It’s a portable of course there will be limitations but imo. Games look solid on it and what switch offers is a library that looks a lot different than Sony or Microsoft.
I think the big N knew it would be suicide to come out with a “specs” console that’s exactly the same as Sony and Microsoft but add Nintendo games because that space is crowded and most gamers already have one of those boxes in their home by the time the switch launched. To get gamers to spend their hard earned cash Nintendo offered something entirely different, and it’s been paying off for them in a big way. I remember when the launch store only had maybe 8 games and fit on one screen, now though tons of Indi’s (Not big on these) and larger studios are realizing that there is a market for their previous gen releases on a mobile device hence the switch versions of several games that once were housed on X360 or PS3 or Steam.
It’s fine if you really care about FPS or the graphics, I used to when I was in my teens and through early adulthood as tech was evolving in leaps and bounds. SNES/Genesis to the PlayStation was a massive leap in visuals.
Switch is not perfect, but for what it is the portable is pretty stout and gets the job done fairly well. Diablo 3 couch multiplayer is something I haven’t had with a diablo game since it was released on PlayStation in the 90’s. The switch may survive 7 years like the 3DS but I wouldn’t be surprised if Nintendo had it’s follow up to the switch out by then.

@Yogsoggoth
If graphics and FPS were as important as you suggested, the Switch, the Wii, and all of Nintendo's dedicated portable hardware would have sold poorly, while the Gamecube and N64 would have become market leaders (or at least would have performed better than they actually did).

That clearly has not happened.

@Yogsoggoth i was a PS4 owner and did want to buy a switch. Portability is key here. Some people (including me) would trade 4k for 720p and being able to take the game you want to play anywhere.

The way the switch is going, right now, is looking like it's a 3DS successor, and not a home console successor, if that makes any sense.

I mean, there's much more "portable" games than "console" games.

@Yogsoggoth "Ugh, the Gamecube didn't sell and it was the most powerful consoles, so Nintendo should always make underpowered consoles argument."
Sorry I went off on a tangent but that's not what I meant at all. I am saying that even an underpowered Nintendo console can sell that many units because it isn't just about specs. I was using the example that they are marketing to a proven market that is still around to buy their stuff.

If we had to group hardware into specs as a generation instead of time what I am saying is that due to the needs of customers Nintendo could sell the Game Boy today and still pull in 100 million units or more.

There are three key markets and thus three types of consumers.
Early adopters buy things from market innovators and leaders who brings something new to the table. The middle is where most the money is generally made and the late adopters are those often looking for a bargain.

The Nintendo Switch is both a late adopters HD device and a market leading device. That's what makes it odd and unique.

Portability has to do with a lot of the success of the Switch even though it is only a HD device.

If the Switch was released many years ago, profit margins would either be much less or they would need to pull modern Apple numbers to get the same results.

Not everyone is an early or mid gen adopter.

I purchased a PS3 second hand for about the same price as my Switch in 2014? (I think it was.) It was my first HD system and I was late to the party. I didn't play my PS3 much and largely used it as an expensive Blu-Ray player.

So in that sense, the Switch is also a bargain for those gaming on the go.

I don't have a 4k TV or computer yet and don't plan to get one for some time so you can make a PS6 for all I care, their specs upgrade has little to no benefit to me. I'm not going to but a 4k TV or computer for the purpose of playing 4k games anymore.

I'm not alone in this regard.

Similarly, there are people who have jump ship to 4k and have no interest in Nintendo's portability system because that is not what they are looking for.

So right now, Nintendo isn't really competing with Sony and Microsoft in that sense that while people still compare their products, they are not marketed to the same group of people nor do either side provide a competing product.

A Switch Pro or a Switch 2 could change all that but I doubt it would make much difference unless it could rival a PS5.

People that are interested in 4k would be looking at the latest and greatest and the most powerful and a 4k Switch would be unfeasible, overkill and also chances are not even as powerful as a PS4 Pro. So are they really going to capture that market? I doubt it.

Most likely a Switch Pro or a Switch 2 will just cannibalise their current Switch market or flop hard.

As for the number, I think they are a best estimate but doable.
Nintendo has sold 32 million units and counting already.
As I said, March 2019-March 2020 is going to be their best year (25-30 million units) and March 2020-March 2021 isn't likely not going to be too bad either (20 million).
So 80 million units by March 2021 isn't that unrealistic a guess.
Even if they sold only 10 million units in the next three years after that it'll do 110 million.

Also my numbers are by 2024 which is 7 years after the Switch's release.

"Will we still be playing in 2024?"

If the joycons hold out, wich won't be the case. Mine are already drifting.