Research analysts from Piper Jaffray, a US-based investment bank and asset management firm, have revealed that they believe gaming could become an all-digital affair from as early as 2022.
With the relatively recent evolution of digital storefronts across all major gaming platforms, a shift from physical purchases to the instant, more convenient digital option has been very clear to see. The lower costs associated with publishing games in this way has led to an influx of indie titles appearing almost every week on modern consoles, and even full retail releases are digitally downloaded much more commonly now than they were several years ago.
It's certainly something that is constantly evolving, and something that will no doubt continue to grow over the coming years, but this recent claim from Piper Jaffray suggests that digital purchases could be set to completely take over the market in just four years' time. The analysts even describe this potential shift as "a certainty".
"It is a certainty that video games will be approximately 100% digital in the coming years. While exact timing is hard to pinpoint, we think 2022 is a realistic expectation.”
We have to say that we find the timing mentioned here incredibly unlikely. If recent console generation trends are anything to go by, and definitely when thinking about its level of success so far, we're almost certain that the Switch will still be going strong at this time. While digital purchases may see more growth on the whole, potentially claiming a larger ratio of sales compared to physical carts than they do currently, it would be very surprising to see the console ditch its physical versions of games altogether.
Of course, we're yet to see the next console offerings from Sony and Microsoft, and it's definitely possible that we'll start to see systems relying on digital media alone one day, but publishers know that consumers love to collect physical games. Fans are always quick to lap up limited edition physical releases and deluxe sets at retail, nevermind those who just like to own a physical version regardless of what comes with it, but could all of this be about to change?
An all-digital future is certainly a possibility, and one that brings excitement and concern in equal measure, but will it really happen this quickly?
As ever, we'd love to hear your thoughts. Make sure to throw us a comment down below sharing your feelings on the matter.
[source barrons.com]
Comments 208
I certainly hope not xd
I suppose it happened in music so it could happen here, but this would be devastating to retailers who sell consoles, controllers, etc. They have a hard enough time competing with Amazon, but now they'd have no games to sell?!? RIP Gamestop.
100% in 4 years? not happening.
90% ? Maybe yes.
Counting mobile ? (which is already 100% )
I doubt it, but I live in hope.
I really hope not.
Its a little early plus whilst I see digital taking an increasing slice, physical copies will remain even as limited editions and niche products. In the same way as the Limited Run Games, Strictly Limited Games, etc.
Of course this is dependent on console manufacturers continuing to offer a media drive in their consoles. If some go full digital but offer USB slots, we could see little memory drive carts.
This would be my nightmare
Nope nope and nope! Stick digital! Nice to have a choice
Vinyl is dead. It's a completely worthless medium in the face of new technologies. You'll never see it for sale in stores again.
Forget digital, I like to have full ownership of my games and not a disguised rental. Go physical!
Nonsense !
I like Pyhsical better than Digital.
Digital download is Not Cool, Not even the Future.
Physical retail is the Future.
Keep supply MORE Physical Retails, Nintendo !
Not in four years, hell no.
But far, far off in the future, like 20-30 years? I can perhaps see that. But it'll never be 100% no matter how close it'll be, because there will always be those who want to keep physical alive and kicking as a retro way that has enough advantages for people to salivate over.
Ridiculous prediction. Unless all of the next gen systems completely forego physical media (they won't), there's no chance that digital will completely dominate the industry. Physical games will remain a constant presence in the industry for years to come, although I do also expect digital distribution to keep increasing in sales over time.
@chiptoon They sell vinyl in my local supermarket. Saw it yesterday. A small rack, but about 10 different albums.
2022 is a weird pick with PS5 and X2 due out probably between 2020 and 2022 and neither of those will be digital only. And that's a year or do too soon for an all digital Switch 2. But really if Nintendo keeps charging too much for carts it might as well be, we'll be buying carts with 20% of the game on them.
He should have said 2028, that's the next next console gen and a nice round 10 years from now.
Should be pointed out, as @kokusho said, statistically mobile is already at 100%, and a lot of console games are digital, so it may already be near 98%. Just look at how many millions of mobile games like Pokémon Go, Minecraft, Fortnite, get downloaded. It's ridiculous numbers vs the console market. So even if console disc sales remained the same, by 2022 game sales could be 100% digital as a rounding error, say 99.6%, with a few more hits like Legend and Clans. Won't be a true 100% though.
Retail AAA disc vs. mobile, downliad only indies, digital AAA
Well, I guess 2022 is when I’ll have a chance to catch up on my backlog then.
I can’t afford digital retail games. All digital means buying retail games for eshop prices.
My recent purchase was mario tennis aces physical for 37 pounds. Buying this digitally would of cost me 50 pounds.
i think that big AAA will go to streaming and it be just indies and smaller games that are download then it could happen by 2022
PC is already there along with moblie.
Also i do think that phiscal games could have a kill switch on them now making them not work after a period of time like most AAA EA games that are online only or have alot of the game on online like halo and call of duty those games even if you buy phyical they will not work after they shut off support.I do think that there will be a digtal only console in the next gen.
But one thing about PC(steam) and moblie is that any thing you buy now it will work into the future.I do think it be 2030.
So when the next successful system with physical media releases, they push that estimate by another five years. Got it.
@1UP_MARIO sometimes digtail is cheaper than physcal
Unlikely that it will happen that quickly, but the naysayers are also living in a dreamland.
Even in 2018, gaming is mostly digital. You might proudly buy everything physically, but there's a good chance that as soon as you boot it up, you're served with a few GB of patches and updates. The game on the disc or card isn't the game you actually play anymore.
As long as Nintendo exists, it will never be 100% digital. At least not any time soon.
Also this is why I don't have a high esteem for analysts. Always trying to forecast the impossible just to have their name mentionned..
@rjejr
I DON'T Want to Download any games.
I Want to BUY games in Physical presence.
Going Digital only = Sucks
Not cool, Not even the Future lifestyle.
I REFUSE to follow them.
That's STINK Lifestyle.
So in the future you don't OWN anything? The future is just buying license for limited time?
No thank you. I will be all retro gamer if that happens.
This is the only thing that is worth to live in the past.
@Sakura Bingo!
@andrew20 rarely. I mean even after most discounts applied to the digital games, it’s stoll more expensive than physical.
Example uk prices
Look at Fifa 18
Mario n rabbids kB
Rayman legends
Mario tennis aces
Etc
I give this "research analyst" a 100% chance that he'll not be working for this firm anymore by 2022.
@Zuljaras
Peoples got Dictated (Brainwashed) by Power of Suggestions.
They believed future is Digital Download Only and lead the peoples going lazy, ignorant and have less Respect.
@Lameborghini they can make an update and make those games not work on the cart slot or disc drive not work and it be a error message or brick the system and just say you mess up your system by buying a used game or a fake game there are ways around it
The only was we'd go 100% digital is if they offer a VOD like service for video game. VGOD?
@1UP_MARIO i live in the US and when they on sale they act like they not and they still reguarlar price and the bosses take up for the store even when you have the ad.and sometimes they more they the retail price
100% is a bit much, there will always be a sizable enough market of physical focused gamers that is too big to ignore for publishers. I think 60% isn't too much of a stretch though.
@Razieluigi
But, there are some games got Re-Released version, COMPLETE with All DLCs, All Contents, etc.
A Whole Full Packet in One Cartridge.
Emphasis on "could". By 2022 all games could be 100% physical.
@bluedogrulez I read that retailers make their money with the games, not with the hardware. So if they had no games to sell they would also stop selling the hardware. I guess you would only be able to order it online.
Also, we were supposed to have flying cars, self drying clothes and shoes that tied themselves by 2015.
@andrew20
"sometimes digital is cheaper than physical."
I DON'T Want Cheap digital download games.
I Want EXPENSIVE Physical Retail games.
I Don't even CARE the price.
I never planned on it but im 100% digital now. Gave my old PS4 to my niece so going digital means we can share all my games on both her PS4 and my Pro...
Went digital on Switch coz my 8 year old just cant be trusted with those tiny carts and, TBH, 100% digital makes more sense on a handheld. Doubt there'll be any game shops left by 2022!
I buy a healthy mix of physical and digital releases, but I love buying things physically. There’s something purely magical about opening up a box with a game or an amiibo, or the anticipation of waiting for a (GameInformer) magazine or pre-order to come in the mail (I love getting things in the mail 😂). That’s why I love things like NFC figures and Labo— it’s something physical that interacts with a game! That’s cool!
Microsoft spends tons of money to have as much retail space as possible in stores. I think we’ll see a price increase on most retail games before we see mass extinction.
@fluggy i mean retro will be but not for modern consoles
It is a CERTAINTY that gaming will become APPROXIMATELY.
Lol nice way of saying nothing.
I'll go digital for smaller titles sometimes, but when it comes to the big, 1st-party releases, I want the cartridge/disk and a case with awesome cover art. There's just no substitutes for me.
@andrew20 it might be different in the us but 80% of the time I find physical especially for big games are always cheaper
@Anti-Matter i also like new indie games too.
@andrew20 It's rare and if they have a monopoly they would have no reason to ever lower prices.
I don’t see it being likely to that number in four years, maybe 85-90%. Now that I think about it, if PC and Mobile games are included in that analyst, it would be likely near that amount due to quantity and ease of the games being released.
With the advancement of online streaming, affordable large storage space and other tech., I see it becoming more possible compared to 4 years ago.
I have my high doubts about this. Especially in the US alone... simply said, even if it's more likely than say, streaming-only console.... to be blunt, a lot of online infrastructure in a lot of countries is just not up for it.
And one of those country is... the United States themselves. Because here's one thing this is forgetting: Unless things changes a lot, games are going to be even -bigger- in term of storage spaces by 2022.
Which means another thing in a digital only future: the downloads themselves would be that much larger. And longer if you live in one of the internet-poor areas of the country or world in general.
I doubt many people would be happy about taking hours just to download their games after actually purchasing them.
So an online-only console... might be in for a -huge- drop in sales/popularity I feel. I wouldn't say it'd be something like the Great Atari Crash of the gaming market, but it might well bite them in the ass hard by further limiting the market only to the most diehard consumers, to the point we'd be heading to the direction of the American comic book markets: lucrative, to a degree... but a very stale stable of consumers in the long run due to many decisions that simply make the market nigh-inaccessible to many more
You'd certainly lose the "family" consumers for one I feel, who might decide digital only might become more of an hassle to setup/get games than an asset.
If anything, in the world of already all-digital PC gaming and smartphones(and the mess store apps have become on both), I'd say physical copies and retail stores(and the self-sorting curation store owners will themselves perform) is perhaps one of the few assets the console market has left. Going digital only might be akin to shooting themselves in the foot.
Plus at the end of the day it's those physical stores that sell consoles in the first place; if they can't sell games anymore... why would they bother packing the console at all in the end? There's a reason the Steambox failed while traditional consoles continued to thrive after all.
The first console going digital-only might be the first to lose the "console war" right off the bat simply due to retailers deciding to promote the console(s) that would continue to sell game in the first place. Familes/etc going out to asks for reccomendations and so on will be very much turned toward the one option that still give plenty of reason for retailers to make money.
Ironically, I'd say the future for console might even be "more" retail than "less". And by this I mean a player like Microsoft could instead focus on indeed making their next console akin to a gaming PC.... but rather than taking the digital-only route, instead making a platform that supports PC game to officialize console/PC crossplatform play while basically turning all those retail console games... into retail PC games to bring back PC gaming to the retail space; the guy who doesn't own a gaming PC but still want to play online/LAN with his friends would just have to buy the cheaper console and have to a retail curation of titles to choose from and thus entirely sidestep the mess that online store like Steam have become. Meanwhile you'd give retailers an -additional- reason to promote your console and games as a way to finally attempt to one-up Steam by offering what Steam wouldn't: Curation, and copies of games no longer tied to a lone account that could be lost forever should the service ever go down.
Depends if theres any games retail shops left by 2022 I guess. Can't see them just selling consoles then promoting games that they make no money on.
@frogopus N64 games were expensive to manufacture, some of the cost was the cart itself. You can't compare Steam to the N64 fairly.
BTW, I never paid more than $50 for an SNES or N64 game. I shopped at Wal Mart. I didn't even know these games were supposed to be more than $50 until I saw people talking about it online years later.
@Ludovsky
Btw, Who's the Heck idea about Full Streaming games = Future ?
That people should be FIRED.
One people's idea can RUIN the World and the Future.
I highly doubt that. And if that ever happens (which will not be 2022), i'm not gonna support it, I will just buy games that are physical from previous consoles. (since i'm not a person who goes "oh my, new things! I'm gonna buy them, and ignore these physical things")
The day that happens is the Day is stop buying new video games (unfortunately)
I'll have to survive on what would be deemed as Retro
Nope. Storage is going to have to get REALLY cheap (like I can but a 2 TB sd card in the Switch 2 for 150 bucks cheap) and sd storage especially. Pure home Consoles are going to have to come with like 4TB standard as well. And that is just to start. There are too many people that rely on the retail space (not to mention the collectors and anti digital people) to purchase games. Consumers are visual and they have short attention spans. Also not to be rude but they are a different breed of customer than PC gamers (many whom build their own rigs or are fairly knowledgeable about how computers work and thus would be willing to do research.) I mean the console games industry can force the issue like the PC industry did but they will have a great deal of attrition and an increase in piracy. And that is before you get to the internet argument...
I guess he missed that entire trend of releasing digital only games in physical form on Switch... 🤔
I remember when annalists were saying my iPhone was going to make all dedicated gaming obsolete - "the future of gaming" they said... with "console quality" games. Hell, according to them PC gaming has died like 3 times now.
That all went well... 🙃
If gaming goes 100% digital or streaming I am done. I have a huge backlog to play through.
I’ll be 100% digital whenever Amazon stops discounting new physical games by 20%. Although I’m already completely digital on Switch, I still find myself buying PS4 games physical when I can.
To be honest, Digital Download Only is about being Individual and Selfish.
You CANNOT borrow the games from your friend to be played in your machine if you going Digital.
You CANNOT Even sell the games / Refund if you bored with the games.
The thing that i can see is a Real NIGHTMARE of the Future when after year 2022, i can see a pile of rubbish Next Gen video game consoles / devices due to UNABLE to be sold & Gameshop retails will SHUT DOWN their business.
No Physical sales = No Hardware sales = No buy the video games = BANKRUPT.
Peoples create their own Apocalypse by their False decisions.
I'm already 100% digital. I like not having more physical stuff taking up space.
What’s with the If games stores survive? We do realize Walmart while not a pure game store exists, right?
maybe in another gen or so. 10 years i could see most being digital.
the only major roadblock is the caps on folks internet which is also fighting the streaming tv/music. eventually comcast will be charging by the megabyte and no one is downloading anything. and once that happens all the rest will collude and do it too.
i'm pretty much digital only but i don't have a cap (i also do a lot of streaming and am cutting cable but TW/spectrum/whatever they're called can't cap for another few years).
but yeah; gamestop will be selling old stuff and i guess 'store' cards or just go out of business (won't miss em so whatever). PC is already digital only for all intents and purposes so give it time and i think consoles land there as well.
@Mrtoad
Going 100% Digital = KILL the Video game shop retails.
Gamestop, BestBuy, Playasia, etc will be History, thanks but no thanks to silly peoples who thought going 100% digital = Future lifestyle.
Year 2022 is Year of Tiger (Water elemental).
Tiger will Not Happy by going digital 100% (Fire elemental).
I'm OK with indie games being all digital, yet major games should still have physical releases. I'm a collector of sorts. I'd prefer physical over digital.
Of course the future is digital. I'm about 90% digital anyway.
I suppose physical is fine if you like to sit and stare at your collection for some sense of purpose or to feel smug, but I just want to play the games.
Collection for historical purposes is a different matter though.
@MrGawain This.
And at the end, talk of digital-only is nice but forget this crucial component: the people who sell and distribute the console in the first place. Unless streaming -and- the internet infrastructure of the United States make leaps and bounds by 2022.... digital-only is basically doomed because you'd still need to use a console to play.
And without people selling the console, let alone willing to... you might as well head back to the path of Atari and crash the market... or your console at least. There's a reason the PSP Go was such a flop whose failures carried over to the era of the Vita.
That's why I don't see Nintendo going full-digital anytime soon; even with increased digital sales there is still the matter of how important it is to give your hardware itself, well, a physical presence.
Ironically the biggest twist I could see is someone making a gaming PC console.... but instead of going digital, instead going the other way and basically literally making it a -retail- gaming PC that could sell all those 100GB games as retail no-download-required copies benefitting from the one advantage retail stores have over Steam: manual Curation.
This could be a twist that would ensure crossplatform play between console and PC versions of games(your console itself is a PC after all) and also do the most important thing to succeed where Steambox(Valve's own gaming PC) failed: getting the support of retailers to sell your games and console in the first place.
It could be risky, but played well it could not only succeed but even challenge the likes of the Valve hegemony on PC gaming. By making a console that'd be basically a PC... and selling games in retail stores again.
You'd be selling the "accessible" version of PC gaming people would just need to plug to their TV and still get to play with your PC-owning friends... perhaps even slowly encouraging them to go back to retail stores in the long run if Steam's curation doesn't improve.
@Savino Everything you're saying is already the case on PC which is basically 100% digital, while still selling 100gb+ games.
Technically, there's nothing stopping it.
What's preventing it is 2 things. Markets with limited internet access. And loosing the exposure of selling stuff in store. A lot of games are bought in store by people that are just looking for a gift, or bough by parents because the kid saw it while they were here. Going all digital means not reaching this market, which is the mass market, and as far as Nintendo is concerned, one of their main market.
@geordie
"I suppose physical is fine if you like to sit and stare at your collection for some sense of purpose or to feel smug, but I just want to play the games."
Smug ?
I bought my games in Physical for Playing.
I display the boxes like books in the bookcase.
@geordie Problem is... what do you do once you release a 100% digital games console... and retailers suddenly do not have any games to sell anymore?
Unless -all- console makers make the move at the same time, whoever would go digital-only first would get drop ASAP by retailers actually selling consoles in the first place who'd immediately start suggesting to new buyers/family the console who kept physical games support.
It'd be like the PSP Go all over again(I think more than anything, that console is the reason the Nintendo DS and then 3DS came to dominate the portable market. Retailers had absolutely no reason to even keep the console that wouldn't even allow them to sell games).
I'll buy physical games for as long as I possibly can. Digital's just not the same.
For my PC I have no issue at all with all digital. For my Switch, 3DS or PS4 I will ALWAYS favour physical media
@Anti-Matter Sure. Usually a year or more after the initial release, and even those aren't always immune to patches.
Regardless, those special collections clearly represent a small fraction of total game sales.
Point is, collecting physical copies for the purpose of posterity is no longer the failsafe it once was. You might still have a playable copy years down the line, but there's a good chance it won't be the game you actually remember playing.
The only way this could happen is if the next generation of consoles doesn’t even have the option of physical releases. People are not going to voluntarily give up physical releases.
Seems as usual the infrastructure issues are forgotten, in the US for example many people don't have broadband and those that do have datacaps !
@Haywired can I ask why? It's still the same game.
Don't get me wrong, I used to love collecting but I can never understand why some feel it diminishes their experience.
Unless they can figure a way to make the digital versions of games as consumer friendly as physical ownership, with all the benefits that actually owning a game outright brings (own it for life and play again even 20 years down the line, have properly physical/tangible stuff like a box with cool artwork or a lovely illustrated instruction manual, can give to your siblings down the line, can trade in for a bit of cash if you're skint, offers proper value for your money in relation to what you pay and what you get for that cash, always just works without hassle with online connections and stuff that you need to access just to play, etc.), then I really hope this analyst is wrong.
@Ludovsky "Problem is... what do you do once you release a 100% digital games console... and retailers suddenly do not have any games to sell anymore?"
Over the years dedicated game shops have been focusing more and more on merchandise as much as games, digital has already had an impact. Perhaps retailers need to learn how to adapt. Although I'm no expert in running a retail business.
I think Microsoft is introducing the public to the idea the best with game pass and I think they will be the first to introduce an Xbox without a physical drive. Phil Spencer did mention futures Xbox consoles in plural, so I think one of those could be a digital only device at a cheaper price.
@geordie
As a collector, I just think there's something special about having a real tangible object to look at and hold. I collect eShop games digitally (obviously), so it's not as if you can't do it, but it feels like there's something missing. Like I bought Azure Striker Gunvolt on the 3DS eShop and liked it so much that when it came out physically on Switch later on, I felt I had to get it, so I could "properly" have it in my collection, if that makes any sense?
It's like with books; holding and flipping through a physical book just feels so nice and seeing things printed on paper is nice. It's all so beautiful and tactile in a way that an ebook just can't recreate.
I went fully digital with my CD and DVD collections as I felt like the writing was on the wall there, but I can't deny I do miss them a bit... There was an album I came across recently with cover art that I loved so much I kind of wished I had it physically, rather than just on the screen.
I'm approximately sure of it!
Digital yeah probably, but streaming, nope. Streaming is 20-30 years away, most countries, including the US and Australia dont have the average bandwidth for it. There was an article this week on Kotaku about this.
Sadly I have pondered that gamestop/EBGames is doomed for a long while. Even Kmart in Australia stopped selling games about 2 years ago, Target has massively reduced, and Big W has reduced too, they only get the first party nintendo games in for switch. The general retailers lose too much having to discount games constantly to clear dead stock, most kids are digital downloading nowadays.
Sadly I agree the brick and mortar physical sales days are numbered. I dont like this scary new future.
@Haywired fair point. I used to collect too, games, books music etc but there's a real sense of freedom when I went mainly digital.
Although I do live by a lot of Buddhist principles so reducing many physical things in my life does not bother me too much now.
2022 is possibly a bit spoon but it will happen within 10 years, most game stores are either gone or on their last legs and that will be the catalyst.
At the moment we're in a strange situation of digital publishing and the retailers simultaneously needing each other and wishing the other didn't exist. Digital prices are high so as not to upset the retailers whilst they want to keep the used market money all to themselves, hence all the pre order bonuses after we rejected online passes.
Simple fact is that without retail AAA games will be cheaper for us, this is why indie games offer physical later to keep their prices down.
A lot on here complaining about physical disappearing and a few years ago I was the same but the reality is there are no storage benefits anymore outside of Switch and in almost every case you're not playing the version on the disc/cart anyway. Also how many here genuinely have more physical games for Switch? Some will but looking at my own ratio it's around 40 digital to 3 physical and if anything the Switch is the perfect all digital console
@geordie
Yeah the convenience and space/de-cluttering aspect is definitely a plus point for digital.
All games be digital in 2022? Ha good luck with that as I could already see the licensing mess this will cause. Soon you'll have a game like Super Smash Bros. 6 in the eShop then in 4 years poof it's gone from the eShop forever because Nintendo remove it due to it having too many license third party characters which they lose the rights to use over time. Those who didn't had a chance to buy the game will never get to buy it ever. I could already see games with guest characters and licensing issues being a problem in that crappy future especially with games like the Crash Bandicoot and Spyro franchise which got license change every few gen from one publisher to the next.
As much as I like collecting physical media, 100% digital is the future, and IMO anyone who doesn't think so is biased by their own preferences or just shortsighted. Specially when that physical thing you buy stops being the full thing you play shortly after its release, and that's not going to change. I think Microsoft has done digital wonderfully so far, if everyone else follows their approach that future might come sooner.
I’ve gone completely digital since 2013
I do trade in a lot of games I know I won’t play no more and get monies for it. I can’t do that for digital. Even for my 3dss I have more than 2 and my children also have 3ds so they can share and borrow some games that let you
@nab1
I would rather still sit under the Rock cave with Primitive things rather than waiting a Future like that.
The Future like that is a False hope.
I'm gonna Against 100% Digital only.
A few years ago I would have scoffed, but with more games inside my consoles than on the shelf and the collapse of high street games retail (Game? 😂) it’s inevitable.
@geordie
I DEFY the convenience of being Digital only.
Convenience is comforting, not something good for me.
I would rather keep changing my game cards rather than press one App icon to start a game.
There's a lot of "certainly approximately" and "certainly a possibility" in this article.
I predict that digital sales will almost certainly increase in the coming years, unless they don't. There you go, I'm an analyst.
@Anti-Matter I'm interested in knowing why you prefer this, does it make the game better?
@Anti-Matter And I respect that. If it were my choice, I wish physical releases remained an option forever. But the reality is that the digital option has many advantages, and little by little consumers and publishers are catching up to it. Only those of us who grew in a physical only environment are clinging to it, and we won't be around forever.
IMO the main and only real problem with digital is that it's still too expensive. If every game released at half or even 2/3 of the physical price, there'd be way more digital sales. Every other issue most people complain about digital media is superfluous at best.
Future? Yes.
2020? No. Maybe computer and microsoft's next console games will be all digital. Sony likes their cut of physical bluray game sales so they'll probably keep the bluray disc drive for the next console.
Nintendo will be maybe halfway through the cycle of the Switch so they aren't going to suddenly stop making physical carts.
There will be more games that are only digital on all systems, but 100%? No.
I don't see that happenning so soon for a lot of various reasons.
First, this would mean alienating a LARGE user base. Many people out there still don't have a quality internet connection (or an affordable one). Also, Internet Service Providers are getting back with implementing data caps nowadays, and with the death of net neutrality in the U.S., this could also mean paying more for getting your gaming services and downloads running decently.
In Canada, most large ISP starting plans are expensive, and come with ridiculously limited data caps (like 30GB per month). Now, given that AAA games are getting very large in size nowadays, and are priced at $80, I don't see a lot of people up here paying that much AND having to spend most of their monthly bandwidth on ONE game.
I think those saying it'll happen in 4 years are smoking really, really good stuff. Or living on another planet. Most console platforms won't go down that road because that'll mean preventing a lot of customers from buying their games.
We're really not there yet. Although I see that in the future. But we're still way, way off. For that to happen, a good Internet connection will need to be seen as commonplace as getting electricity to your house. There are tons of place in the world where internet connections are still bad, or sometimes not even available. I know places less than 30min from big cities that have to rely on slow satellite connections because no ISP want to service these areas.
@chiptoon : I understand your point about vinyl, but in a sane market, it should never have made a comeback. With most music being mastered digitally these days, we should instead be enjoying lossless quality music on a physical format such as DVD or Blu-ray instead (which should have enough space to accommodate lossless audio). CD quality is still a cut above the likes of iTunes, but it's a far cry from what we could be listening to.
I still buy CDs in most instances, but if an album is not available physically or if I am only interested in one song (maybe two) from an album and am not particularly interested in the rest of the album, then I will opt for a digital download. I have never bought a full album digitally and I don't intend to. I would consider it if there was a service that sold music at lossless quality though.
I can see this happening eventually but not in 4 years.
People still buy records. It will never be 100%
I hope gaming doesn't go mainly streaming but I don't have a problem at all with it going download only as I already go all digital for my game library. Download only is so much more convenient
Absolutely no way. Pc gaming and mobile gaming is already 100% digital, but console gaming isn't. I could see Microsoft going all digital by 2022, as they are really pushing the Xbox to be a windows 10 box for your TV (See the recent news of adding mouse and keyboard support for Xbox one). But Sony is less likely to do it unless they release a new console between now and then. And I certainly cannot see Nintendo moving to all digital now that the Switch had proven to be such a big success and lot of their revenue comes from physical releases. Why do you think indie developers on switch say that they are always hopeful for a physical release on switch? It's because games sell really well when people see them on store shelves
I don't understand why Microsoft isn't taking advantage of the UHD Blu-ray format to issue games on 66GB and 100GB discs. It's their key advantage. Quite frankly, I'm surprised that Sony were so short-sighted that they hadn't considered this for the PS4 Pro.
@geordie
Of course.
I will NOT defy the Old fashioned way to play video games.
There is a Satisfaction in my heart when i can owned a Real things than Digital things.
I can touch it, feel it, see their presence, consider my games are like part of Family members. They are belong to me.
Whenever i see my game boxes sorted tidily in my bookshelf, i feel so proud with my achievement from my Work time (After got salary, i can purchase some video games softwares / video games machine )
I feel NOTHING if my games are Digital download. They are NOT Present, No existence, i can't touch it or feel it.
I don't want a Convenience that Replacing the Essential of Old Fashioned way.
I am an Old Fashioned way dude for certain things.
Not just only gaming, i still use my Mount bike for my vehicle to go anywhere (as long not too far) & i don't want to own car / motorbike for 3 reasons:
1. I am Unable to drive any Motor vehicles & i Don't care.
2. I have NO Passion at all to own a car / motorbike nor even have any enthusiast about vehicles.
3. I still concerned about Gas Pollution from cars and other vehicles, so i REFUSE to use any cars / motorbike as a Driver (if as a Passanger, i don't mind going by cars / bus / motorbike)
Someone should ask this analyst why Nintendo would ever decide to abandon cartridges as they make a lot of money selling the cartridges to third parties. It's a huge source of revenue. Also, many people prefer to buy cartridges over digital. Many of these analysts are on the payroll of the game industry and so they push the narrative that the game industry wants. Most of the industry may want games to be 100% digital, but Nintendo and the vast majority of consumers do not. And since the consumers pay the bills, we will win.
Research analysts from an investment bank and asset management firm....... I'm sorry but anyone that's an analyst for an investment bank is almost certainly not qualified to make predictions on technology adoption when even the people qualified to make such predictions wouldn't be insane enough to try. Know thyself. If you don't know your own limitations, you're certain to make terrible error.
Are these the same analysts that predicted that movies, television, music and radio would be 100% digital by 2005 while we still sit at about 50% of the former and 75% of the latter and the number is unlikely to budge.
Industry types need to #dealwithit. Physical will be around forever, because demand for physical will be around forever, and any half intelligent business doesn't leave market demand to their competitors to fill. Their crusade for total control is not going to go the way they expect. Even if XBox and Playstation go 100% digital, which is unlikely, there's very little chance Nintendo will, as physical copies is still a huge business for them and their partners. Not unless Nintendo's current sales trends dramatically change, which is unlikely, will they abandon a very stable market in chase of the golden unicorn.
Further, PS and XBox can scarcely afford to abandon their physical footprints if they wish to sell consoles at retail, and as a means of promotional tool, as it would close in the circle of those who see their product to those who already are aware of it. I do expect the media of physical will change, but physical is unlikely to vanish. Especially as games keep growing. I just downloaded Halo 5 and Gears 4, at 102GB, and 118GB. I'm saving Quantum Break at a whopping 178GB for another time. From the XBox and Playstation E3 sales I've downloaded probably close to 3TB of games. Most people do not have adequate internet to do that. most people will not have adequate internet to do that in 2028 let alone 2022. The most common ISP would charge you $200 extra for having done that. That's not "the future" based on current US infrastructure. Now take a look at South America, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa......Sony and Nintendo do business in these places even while MS does little. Internet....not going to support that for a looooong time there.
100% is an odd number, as it assumes Nintendo, and about 60% of earth don't exist at all. But even in the PS/XB camps there's a lot of very loyal physical buyers. It's fair to say "primarily" or "majority" but to say entirely is just overreaching by far.
Honestly I've heard stories that the ISPs go after you even for 3TB or so of transfers to tell you you need a business account to continue doing that. The gaming industry wants you do that that regularly.
I'm guessing these analysts are basing this on the people that told them streaming is the defacto only future....which is of course also not going to happen due to the physical infrastructure realities (and companies realizing just how much providing the hardware for every running instance of their games in local datacenters worldwide is going to cost them. In the boardroom, the cloud makes everything cheap. In the IT department, the zeroes start growing below the red line....)
HA! This is hilarious. As if the whole gaming market will turn to digital by 2022. I for one don't see myself going 100% digital if I keep getting offered the physical copies as an alternative. I know I'm not alone in thinking like this and the big 3 know this.
@gauthieryannick Except you can do whatever you want with a retail version, such as lend it to a friend, or sell. S U P E R I O R F O R E V E R
I think 100% digital just isn't possible until internet connections as a whole get better in all major regions. Though I say that and yet my TV/Movie has almost completely transitioned to streaming, but gaming streaming is a bit tougher.
Given Kimishima's statement about Switch having a longer lifespan than their typical 4-5 years, and their reveal of Switch from its codename of "NX", the Switch is Nintendo's next generation of systems, made to compete with PS5 and XBox #. Nintendo doesn't view this as a PS4/XBoxOne competitor, they see it as an early release of the next generation. That said, it's also likely true to be Nintendo's final system to use physical media. They plan for this thing to last 7 to 9 years, so their next system will be around 2024, and by then, a good chance the PS6 and XBox-whatever, will be all digital too.
@dougphisig look how fast it's already gotten just over the last 5 years. Don't forget too that in 2006 people said HDTV's weren't common (and they weren't), but here in 2018 all the systems are HDTV ready. It's making strides, so who knows exactly when, but the day will come soon that we see all digital/streaming only video game systems.
@Realnoize Don't you love how the gaming industry seems to believe that internet is already a universal utility like analog phones and electricity available in unlimited quantity? Those caps in CA are even more awful than Comcast, and I didn't know that was possible!
I miss dialup. Wish we'd stuck with it. Everyone had equal access using existing lines, and you had a dozen different vendors in any town. Now you get 5 national companies, one or two of which offer service to you, if they do at all, and all different price tiers.
I don't get how these industry leaders could be so myopic that they truly don't see outside their own corporate tower's perfect internet tied right into a backbone to miss the reality of MOST of their market? For a customer already at their Comcast cap, downloading Halo 5 would cost $40 for the game, and $110 for the download!
And the solution these companies have is to try to force the government to force the internet companies to structure their business to accomodate the profit motives of publishers. Here's a thought for content publishers: If you feel the internet infrastructure to deliver your business model via this method is vital to your profits, why don't you buy the cable/telco company? Or start your own infrastructure company as a forward investment?
Oh, that's right, because internet infrastructure is an expensive, money losing proposition that would cost more than you'd make up on profits, but you'd like to profit at the telco's expense....got it.
Sure the ISPs are greedy as well...but part of it is a cost shifting by gouging dense populations to pay for that $50.6M feeder line that feeds a small town of 2,000 paying $100/mo.
Internet infrastructure is new and is far from being a universal utility, anywhere. Imagine if 20 years after Edison invented the lightbulb gas, lantern, candle, and hand crank makers just stopped making any of it "electricity exists so the future is that, screw you people that don't have it yet."
Well he's clearly crap at his job then if he thinks it's going to happen that quickly! The infrastructure just isn't there. Microsoft tried pull something like this with the xbox one and look how that turned out. Games are getting far too big and internal HD sizes are not keeping up with it.
In that scenario, if purchases transfer, we would no longer need to worry about backwards compatibility. If not, then it could make for an incredibly lucrative retro market for those willing to speculate on long term investments.
As a Nintendo console owner this would be terrifying.
For PS/XB owners, it's a natural progression. There's nothing more convenient than showing up to my friends house, signing into his XBox and downloading the latest title to play over there, all while accessing my save point from the cloud.
Doubt it. Definitely digital will continue to get more business but that timelinenis way too soon for all digital.
As some above have suggested, the likes of PS4 are pretty much already 100% digital. I've stopped buying Physical for PS4 for this reason, as I quickly came to realise that the Blu Ray disc is pretty much a glorified DLC card. Enter the disc, download the full game to system, and then have the inconvenience of swapping in and out the discs to access what is essentially a digital download.
I do love Collectors editions etc, but behind the initial wow moment of opening and having a look through the content, it's rare that I do anything with it other that display on a shelf. In reality, it would be better to just buy the merchandise that I like separately, rather than be overcharged for it as part of a collectors edition.
@pika677 HDTV experienced rapid adoption because the government forced everyone to buy HDTVs or HTDV ATSC boxes by shutting off the UHF/VHF signals to hand to cellular companies. That wasn't organic, it was mandated to spend money or lose your access to television, however I believe free ATSC boxes were handed out to everyone that wanted one eventually (albeit via tax rebates, blah blah blah.) So it was a government subsidised shift. This is different as the government would have to directly install or force private business to install very expensive fiber runs to every home in the nation, no matter the cost to do so, mostly to please large content publishers, as for regular data, cellular is being used to close the gap (but with limited bandwidth and caps.) So it's all really about pleasing game and movie companies by government fiat. Not likely. Not even for the control freak US government owned by Google.
Google flamed out spectacularly trying to build their own fiber network, and they were doing it to show off how internet should be done. It's really not happening. Not in our lifetime most likely.
@gatorboi352 Gain some perspective on this one. I bought X1X to SPECIFICALLY be a digital-only console. Yes, I'm enjoying using it that way. But lets be real about the state of the internet infrastructure. It's not everywhere, it's not even many places in a robust state for digital gaming content, and if your friend was on Comcast (and as the biggest ISP in the US, ther's always high chances of that), and already at his/her monthly cap, you downloading the latest title to play there would have cost him/her $40-180 on the next bill (40 for Deus Ex Mankind Divided, $180 for Quantum Break at Comcast's $10 per 10GB up to $200/mo over 1TB extortion scheme.) . And before anyone says "net neutrality" that was Comcasts' perfectly acceptable scheme with net neutrality. NN had no effect on this situation with ISPs.
And that's just the US. Try that feat in, say, Brazil, UAE, Turkey, or as noted above, mighty Canada.....and good luck with that. If it works for you that's wonderful, but the issue here is it's not going to work for a great many people, even (if not especially on X1X and forward on PS5/X2.)
To put it in more perspective along with other recent industry comments/trends this implies not a move to download only but a move to streaming only. Even you will have to chafe at the awesome 200+ms input lag on that one!
Don't join the myopic industry leaders with an ivory tower view of "whatever works for me must clearly work for everyone." You can join them in funding the startup of a new multinational fiber infrastructure company to help make that dream a reality though. I figure you only need a few trillion dollars for that.
@Anti-Matter i have no one to share my games with and i do not trade so.
Gotta disagree US, maybe in 2030s-2040s but not now.
@8itmap_k1d Reminds me of meteorology "Heavy rain today. 30% chance of precipitation. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 1:00PM. Thunderstorms could bring dangrous wind and heavy downpours. Between a tenth to a quarter inch of rain expected, except up to 2 inches where thunderstorms may occur. Mostly cloudy, some sunshine possible later in the day." Then by 1:00PM the forecast changes to either "showers likely for the next 4 hours" or "partly sunny" depending on if it was raining at noon or not.
They predict all outcomes simultaneously and then change them to the new reality as the old predictions don't pan out. Then they declare they were mostly right! And these people get paid six figures for this with a government pension. The kid at the gas station working part time minimum wage just looks up and pinpoints precipitation within the next hour and is usually right.
"Analyst" I'm pretty certain means "daddy knew the right people at the university to get me connected to a well respected job where I get paid to make guesses."
My analyst prediction: There's a 60% chance that the industry will convert upwards toward 100% digital within the next period of years. If physical persists it will potentially make up upward toward 40% of the industry. Digital sales are likely to overtake physical sales by a ratio of 3:1 over the next 4 years, except in locations, regions, and for specific titles where they don't, or even cede ground to physical.
Can I get my 401k now?
I have mixed feelings about gaming industry to towards digital only on day. Though I prefer physical releases but am embracing this digital age of gaming.
This way they will force you to be online all the time as well i'm sure. They did it with xbox one and had to stop it after many people complaining. Now it will be a trend... soon all will follow. RE7 on Switch streaming is an example. more will follow.... mark my words
They must be joking, right? 2022 would be waaaaaay too late. IMHO gaming should've become digital-only 5-10 years ago.
Why not do it right now instead of unnecessarily prolonging it?
I'm only digital on PC (well, no choice for most part) so i can see that happening at some point for consoles. But 2022 seems way too soon, i believe it'll happen but not that soon.
@gauthieryannick you do own the license if it's stored in a physical format unless it's an Xbox ONE game, where a double check takes place regardless. In digital you own nothing, it's just a rental.
@Zuljaras Yes, I'm sure you will be playing your Mario on the N64 in 50 years. Even things that are physical break and stop working. Not to mention, I for one hate having them take up space in the house, cleaning is a pain and so is moving.
@Tokiwa
The difference with the PC platform, is that it's an open system, and most distributing platforms give at least a way for users to actually back up their games if they wish, and some platforms like GOG even sell DRM-free games, meaning there is no fear of them not working anymore in the future if the store goes under. I don't have a problem with digital-only on PC, provided I can get decently priced titles (and I can).
The problem with a digital-only console platform, is that it is 100% closed, and you're 100% at the mercy of the platform owner regarding your game library. If they shut down their store infrastructure in the future to "force you" to move on to their newest console, then all the games not stored locally will just vanish from your library. And even those stored locally won't have any guarantee of working for an indefinite amount of time.
Anyone interested in preserving gaming history in some way must fear the advent of a digital-only world, as this will render some game preservation completely impossible.
Sure, digital is convenient, but in the end, on closed platforms, most advantages are for game companies, not the end user.
@Balchad Sure.
I am just against this loan thing. I too play digital on my PC but I like consoles for the physical media. Yeah I dislike discs but with PS and Xbox we do not have a choice. At least Nintendo is still trying to make cartridges.
Also I am sure that NES will still work in 50 years.
I will always buy physical first!! Unless there is no more to be had! ☹️
Sounds like a pretty stupid analyst.
Yes, digital is steadily more attractive, but 2022? Not happening. Still buy half of my games physical so I can, you know, trade with friends or trade them in, and in some cases maybe even re-sell myself down the road.
Physical media outlets have already jumped into the digital download game, but they still make their hay on resell of used media. Inevitably but not immediately, that would make places like Gamestop have to lighten up on carrying hardware items and focus more on new digital media, less on old used media. Rental game companies like Gamefly likely would survive as they increase what they do with their PC rentals now, and people are gonna want to play old games on their older systems til further notice. We could go on and on with assumptions, speculations, and hypotheses. The big 3, game publishers, and game developers may rejoice in all digital, but I'm sure there are entities out there that would do all they can to battle and stall this.
PC gamers saw it happen years ago, console gamers will too with Nintendo being the last out the door due to the age group they cater to
@Anti-Matter "Not even the Future lifestyle."
I would think all of your worry about the future would be about games becoming too adult. I was just reading about a PS4/Vita game in Japan getting banned in the West so Sony dropped it. More and more M rated games, less and less G rated games these days I'm noticing. Gotta choose your battles, adult games on disc or family friendly games as downloads? Don't fight all the battles at once, you'll drive yourself crazy.
Change is good. Can you imagine having to swap out a cartridge every time you used a different app on your phone?
Can’t come soon enough.
I like physical copies and love special editions with bonus swag, always will.
well I think its going be not 100% but bloody close. see for switch yes but for xbox and playstation physical will go the way of the pc games and die out. What bugs me most is ripp off e store. Especially for Switch how much does a cart cost make ship etc. and even sales on e shop of old games are really poor. I understand about poor broadband etc. but bloody hell day 1 patches alone sometimes are same size as the game and will only grow in size as well.
In which case I believe I could be 100% retro by 2022! And, I believe I could tell 100% digital to suck it by 2022! :3
What idiot thinks we'll give up physical gaming in the future?!
As long as people value collecting and trading games, digital will never be 100% of the games market.
Many games, particularly the annualized sports franchises, rely quite a bit on people trading in last year's entry for money or store credit to buy this year entry.
These kind of predictions remind me of the "This generation will be the last generation of consoles" BS that we have been hearing for the last 2-3 generations.
I think a balance is great. I refuse to buy any big AAA release digitally simply because I have a personal rule against paying full price for something I can't sell or hold in my hand. No case or manual or any kind of physical retail space needed, and it costs the same to download that it costs to buy in a store? No thanks.
But smaller indie games, and studios that would otherwise not be able to release games if physical was the only option... I'm glad to see smaller releases for $20 and less digitally and conveniently available.
Both options have their merits but I'm totally against the total elimination of the physical game market.
If it comes to that, that's when I'm done with the gaming except on the older consoles. Paying full price for something that I may only play a little, is not worth it, and you'd have no idea how the game is from start to finish...imagine paying $60 for something that you have no idea if you would get the full amount of money invested into it? Plus, I still have yet to go digital with music or even movies...sorry, I still buy CD's and Bluray's...I'd rather have the cover art and actually OWN them, not wait for the companies to take them away from the Digital scene, and find out that you were only really RENTING them at high prices.
Not unless major changes are made to the legalese associated with downloaded games. Ownership of the downloaded content, ability to share that content within families that own multiple systems. There are just too many reasons to not go digital
Will more content go digital? Most likely. But 100% digital by 2022? Keep dreaming.
Seriously, these execs and analysts need to leave their rigged high-rises sometime and see how feasible this goal would be for a lot of the planet.
People will stop being materialist and consume plastic. Finish the time where we loose little cartridge. Just need more price cut.
Not going to happen.
By 2022:
50%? Sure
75%? Unlikely
100%? Just plain not going to happen
Now by 2050...
On a side note: while I do like the argument/example of vinyl, what if the next, or in a few generations, consoles down the line don't have a place for game cartridges/cds to be inserted and completely go digital? Is Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft going to release a special version of the system and special physical game cartridges/cds just for people who don't like digital when the whole idea of not releasing physical copies is that it's cheaper to produce and distribute? I don't think so. It may have happened for music, but how many people can actually see that happening for video games? That's where I think the whole "vinyl" argument goes down the drain when it comes to video games.
Just to make clear, I'm completely opposed to an all and only digital market for video games, but as time goes on and more and more people have decent access to the internet, and with it being cheaper in the short term for companies, it seems inevitable.
This prediction is doubtful unless the majority of games are (at that point) being committed to streaming only or a few but market dominating games as service like Fortnite, just become the few main games people play. BUT THIS ALL DEPENDS ON the internet itself not gettiing totally owned by comcast or equivalent (datacaps, rising datacosts -> Net Neutrality). In the good ol' US of A we got a big issue with Ajit Pai and Net Neutrality. Totally would kill this prediction (then again, he would be out of the White House if Trump is not re-elected in 2021).
There's also some limits to storage and specs and compression tech and like even tiny fan cooling stuff not advancing in pace with increasing game sizes. So without supper innovative new compression tech, I don't see this happening that soon.
4 years is a long time away, its essentially already clsoe to 100% for music and movies
Well if that's the case then why are there so many special edition physical copies of games being released? There also won't be any way to future-proof games.
@Spectra ...Seriously? The world won't end even with one more console generation. I think you're overeacting a bit, don't you think?
It doesn't bode well for Piper Jaffray, a major investment bank, that the average gamer knows more about their research subject than they do 😂😂😂
@Savino game of the year and annual fighting/sports games should keep the prices low. No way I would pay full price for all those damn Street fighter 4 versions, dunno if SF 5 went into that domain of editions too.
i love digital.
im cool with that.
Ab-so-lutely not. I love having physical discs of games!
Plus there wouldn't be room for ALL the games you want on an SD Card!
That would be a shame as there's nothing quite like being able get that sense of visual satisfaction from looking at all your games on a shelf.
@Dualmask, I agree. For music, TV and film anything stored exclusively in clouds, locking me into one company's website, or one company's software to access is an absolute no no.
I imagine they all have small print somewhere saying they could shut them down at some point if the whim took them. I buy cartridges if possible for the same reason.
Its already at 100% digital there isnt a physical game i couldn't buy digitally right now. They wont ever get rid physical because people like it too much. I could still buy cds and Blu rays if i want and how long have those been digital? I can even records in this day. They've been saying this for years.
Soon as disc/cartridge goes away then my gaming will landslide,,, only bonus if they do it should be games on release be way cheaper like £20 lol
@rjejr I think that ship has sailed. Imagine being locked in a lift with this guy. Terrifying. 🤔
@darthstuey Locked in a lift w/ who, anitmatter, the analyst, or me? I'm pretty sure you lose either way.
It is certainly trending toward digital because that is what content producers want. But 100% in merely 4 years seems far too soon. I mean, if that happened, hundreds of stores and thousands of people would lose their jobs. It also doesn't take into account all the older fans/consumers who do prefer physical releases.
@bluedogrulez it didn’t happen with music yet, there are CDs everywhere
@chiptoon have you not been to Fye lately? There is still new vinyl in several different stores
I agree that digital sucks... I lost hundreds of dollars worth of stuff on my iPad when I updated to IOS 11 (IOS 11 did away with all 32 bit compatibility)... if they would have been physical copies I could have at least sold them
one of the biggest issues with digital we have is situations like the Wii and Wii U. So here we are now with the Switch starting out digital libraries alllll over again. The Wii shop is gonna close in 2019 and so wave good bye to that digital library. Now even though the Wii U offered discounts on games purchased on Wii that didn’t carry forward to Switch. So say good bye to your Wii U digital library!! To me Microsoft is the only one who handles digital purchases the right way especially now with them starting backwards compatibility with even original Xbox games!! I commend them!! Sony and Nintendo should take notes!!
I really don't think it's likely to happen by 2022. All consoles have media drives and it's hard for me to believe that the next generation consoles won't have such drives anymore. In addition, Special editions are a money making machine, and people usually pre-order almost the whole stock. Those things sell like hot cakes.
I really think that like it happened with other medias, digital sales will increase substantially, but physical copies will still be available, even if in smaller quantities. That's the way the market works: if a product sells and is profitable, companies offer it. As long as people keep buying physical media, it will exist.
@carlos82 i have about 15 physical to 3 digital for switch. I dont see much value in indie games which tend to be massively overpriced on switch for 10-20 hrs of gameplay.
@John_Deacon John Deacon my favorite bass player from my favorite band in the world!! RIP Freddie!!!
There are so many factors here to consider:
1) PC market made the shift more or less with Steam. These days, almost all PC games are digital only with multiple stores (Origin, Uplay, Blizzard app etc)
2) Mobile market is already digital only however, the games are small in size and are quick and accessible compared to other platforms.
3) Not all countries/areas have good internet, which can mean it may take hours or even days for some people to play the game they just bought in comparison to a physical copy, which can help to mitigate the download size. PC gamers know what they’re getting into but for console only users, this could be a shock. Furthermore, bandwidth caps may limit the amount of games a consumer can purchase in a month.
4) Download speeds on PC and mobile are usually able to use the full speed of your bandwidth. Some consoles download slower e.g PS4 whilst others are perfectly respectable with their allowed download speed e.g Xbox.
I think it’s too early for the console market to completely switch over to digital only based on the above. The key issue to me is mainly the internet speeds available to certain countries/parts of countries, which may lead to some consumers delaying their purchase due to frustrations with internet constraints.
@Realnoize I'm not really a fan of digital, i don't hate it but i don't love it either. But like i said i don't really have a choice on PC where 99% of the games is digital only or the physical still forces to use a digital platform. However one good point was the regional pricing on Steam, which makes PC games cheaper than consoles (at least on my country) so it kinda of pays off around here.
On my 3DS though i went with physical copies as much possible, aside from the VC games and the Eshop only indie titles.
However my problem with digital games is not much about ownership but more about internet connection. I'm from a third world country where speeds are sub-par and most places has data cap. I don't think most places is ready for digital content, at least for gaming (downloading a 80GB game is different from a 5MB music track after all).
I still believe in the future gaming will be digital only, just not that soon. I feel like it'll take at least more than a decade for us to get there.
When 2022 comes and even 1% of games are still on carts, I will laugh in their faces.
@Tokiwa I wholeheartedly agree (and can relate!) with your stance. As long as internet speeds are not up to par worldwide, carts will still be around.
Unless everyone worldwide get internet 24/7 a Fiber internet speed. Digital downloads is alot of wishful thinkingat this point in time. Not everyone can afford internet. And also until MicroSD cards become less expensive and more capacity that is a running joke. Take for instance a 400GB MicroSD is still costing around 200$US and the Console is 299.99+tax you can figure which one Gamers wants first. And as other mentioned Internet Speeds are not equal or fair and cost alot to pay for as well. Internet isn't Free. And Digital take up MicroSD space unlike cartridge which has the game and only uses saves and updates saving MicroSD space.
@rjejr I also can't imagine it happening by 2022... Though I think the next generation will be the last generation of pure home consoles with TVs becoming more and more computerized and streaming becoming more viable, I think hybrids like the Switch will probably continue to have a place.
Pretty obvious it’ll go 100% digital sooner than later. Everyone said music wouldn’t too, but look where we are now. With the Switch being able to archive games and keep the save data, you can easily archive games that have higher data cost and redownload later if you want to come back to it and replay it. That way you can cycle through games without running out of data.
The deals on trading in games are horrible anyway. No real loss there
Very doubtful that it will. Collecting games and special editions of games are more popular now then they've ever been. Even indies are getting their games out on physical medium. I just cant see it happening.
That would be about the time I stop buying new games. I have a disturbingly large stack of shame anyway. Screw anyone who tries to forces me to rely entirely on digital.
Reminds me of when the kindle became popular and everyone thought that was the death of physical books! Ridiculous claim, never gonna happen, there will always be at least limited releases of physical media in some form
I can see this happening because they want to prevent pirate copies and pre-own sells.
Both do not earn the gaming company any money.
I think we will see a shift where you have to bind the game to an account and then download the execute file as a minimum.
The game discs will just be pre-installed storage disks.
This will probably also be a part of the collectors addition.
Books, music and pre-installed storage disks.
The rights to the game will be on a key code.
And there you have it, death of the traditional physical copies within 4 years.
True death of separate physical storage media will not happen until 2TB flash hard disk becomes really cheap and a common component in consoles
I have no problem with digital if they allow us to transfer games from one account to another. Until then, I'll just stick with physical.
Funny that people want to protect the stores that sell the physical game, but not the companies that produce the games.
Selling the games to others means that you are taking away sells from the gaming company.
But that OK because you can get the game cheaper?
And it OK that game stores make their living of us being cheap?
Let be honest.
People do not care about store, only about the price of the product.
People do not care about the gaming companies, they just want the games as cheap as possible.
And people don't like "digital only" because we are force to pay the money that the company wants for the product.
Because there are no 2nd hand sells artificial lower the price.
Yawn. That's why so many smaller studios are opting to turn their previously digital games into physical. This dude isn't very good at his job. I assumed it was goign to be that pachter idiot again.
@BruMeister I think he was being sarcastic. 👊
@MegaTen again- sarcasm 🙄
@rjejr him 😱
Wouldn't mind if:
1. I'll never lose access to my games
2. Can download them in 2050 without having to spend a penny
3. Prices get normal (switzerlands eshop is like 10-15$ more expensive than retail)
@BruMeister They do.
@darthstuey not so much sarcastic. Ironic. Real world evidence shows that the analogue / digital / download shakedown that happened and continues to happen in music ended up that whatever medium you want is still pretty widely available. And that you should not take what analysts say too seriously.
Four years is a console's lifetime. Sure, why not. Assuming a new world war won't erupt in that time.
There will probably still be some form of "physical" as a deluxe collector thing (like with music industry still producing vinyls), but as someone noted above it's already the reality for PC. "Physical edition" usually requires Steam anyway.
@MegaTen precisely
@Dan_Dan A lot can happen in 30 years that can make your physical copies unplayable.
I have personally lost a few original Game Boy games do to age.
And I have worn down 2 PS2 console in my time
I've been 100% digital since wii u. I'm loving it.
Only if the market forces me... And it will be stupid I get cheaper games on amazon or Base than the offical stores...
I agree with the analyst, but it may be more like seven years. At the moment, game file sizes seem large but this is only relative to what has previously been the case. Some consoles ship with a 1TB hard drive and can see the next gen sporting this as standard, with an iteration within a few years going for a 2TB-5TB solution. Download speeds will increase over time and the need for physical products from the younger generations will diminish. I like my physical games, but most just clog up my parents attic. I always think I will play them again (or shock sell them), but I never do.
@Silly_G You make some really good points.
While I'm not trying to invalidate any of your points, I want to offer some totally subjective counterpoints.
Regarding quality and whether vinyl should exist (not that I buy vinyl myself): I like pixel art. But I really like pixel art with scan line filters and blur that look like games used to look on a CRT tv. Its less crisp and precise, even more so if you add curvature, but I really like it. Others like to see pixel perfect. To each their own and both have a right to exist because there is a market.
When it comes to music I often find a lossless format available for albums I buy on Bandcamp, for example. But I take the MP3s anyway, becasue they're small and convenient and I just don't care that much.
On the digital versus physical issue, I think that physical is going no where, probably ever. Because some people like it, like vinyls. But a digital only future is also quite appealing from a convenience point of view. And then each physical game comes with multiple updates etc that mean your game was not on the cart / disc in the first place. So I don't really know why anyone is worried about this. Analyst and business will make statements and decisions and they will learn what the market wants.
And vinyls will continue to be sold everywhere.
@SwitchForce "And Digital take up MicroSD space unlike cartridge which has the game and only uses saves and updates saving MicroSD space."
Ir depends on how many GB we have to download EVEN if we buy physical copies of many Switch games.
The Switch is already bringing us a harsh reality: buy half of some games physical and forcefully download the rest whether you would like to or not....
@joey302 Deacon is the man!!!!!!!
And let's keep Freddie alive by listening to his music every single day in this life!!!!
@chiptoon sorry I read your comment as in the now whereas on rereading it you were making a comment which we may have all heard years ago. Nevertheless your intent was pretty clear. For people to come back at you and tell you that you can buy vinyl in certain stores is worryingly laughable. 😂
@John_Deacon I ALWAYS get me my daily Queen fix!!! They were just incredible!
Then I'll stop gaming....
For Wii U with a massive and cheap external hard drive I went digital only. It was practical but in hindsight it was a huge mistake. Once the servers are down and my backups get corrupted data sooner or later I will lose everything.
For Switch with tiny and expensive microSD memory I buy physical only. Because I rather switch multiple original game carts than multiple microSD cards.
@geordie Merchandise is good, but at the end you still need a full dedicated product.
And while stores could thrive vis a vis diversitificaiton, the consoles themselves might be hurt by the loss of visibility. At the end of the day, that is a thing retail copies DID provide to game consoles: a lot of space to showcase exactly what the console is about. Remove that, and in the long run a digital-only console might end up in a corner, with little to show beyond boxes of the console itself and eventually... out of sight as diversification begins to take more room than the console themselves.
An indirect example is how making Marvel/Superheroes movies did bring a lot of money and new viewers for these movies.... but not the comic themselves overall. Because comics and movies are still different merchandises at the end of the day.
That is indeed one of the biggest trap of an all-digital console. And sure PC gaming pulled it off, but only because people already had a huge tradition of getting a PC for other reasons. A gaming console on the other hand has no reasons to be purchased but the game.
And even then, I'm starting to think the all-digital nature of PC might be eventually starting to bite it in the rear because of the dual situation of how much Steam has become a monopoly on PC and at the same time how much Steam neglect, among other things, actual curation of their roster. Something a physical store -will- do.
I know a fair amount of people gravitating away from PC to console just because Steam has grown such a mess to deal with and in fact grew so much big in that regard that inertia likely won't lead it to improve anytime soon. Even people who stick to PC for now are increasingly growing frustrated with it... and if they don't pick up console gaming, then they just end up gaming less overall because Steam made THAT much of a mess I feel.
Dedicated "core" users might still hold on to PC and Steam and have more use navigating all-digital stores... but the fact remains that retail store are perfect for entry-level users figuring -why- they should buy a console and seeing what games might be worth it in the first place. Remove physical stores, you'll remove a lot of clerk's ability to suggest people toward titles/etc that may be worth it. So in the long run an all-digital future might start to bleed out entry-level gamers/users only to retain an eventually stagnating core that might still be highly profitable but would cement itself in stagnancy
It wouldn't be a Great Crash of gaminglike the Atari era, but would certainly setting itself up for a "Gaming Reccession" in the long term. Mobile gaming/etc might remain able to thrive to a degree due to the ubiquity of smartphones but it certainly would lead to an hit in regard to traditional experiences I feel.
@Anti-Matter Iirc there's been hints of that from the likes of Ubisoft's CEO. Though then again the guy lives in France iirc his name which apparently has superior internet overall than the USA so that might tie into a bias that wouldn't be able to take heed of the issues with connectivity in the USA.
At the same time Sony's already tried to dabble with streaming, such as removing "PSone/PS2 classics" from the PS4 stores(letting them remain only on the PS3) in favor of a sort of streaming service for classic games instead where you'd play classic era titles online rather than storing them in your PS4 iirc.
There were hints Microsoft considered it, but they seem more cognicent than Ubisoft's CEO because Microsoft's own spokeman instead talked that they could see this in the far future... but emphasis on the "far" part as they didn't see it happening "at least" until after the next console generation(so basically, it happening in the era of something like the PS6 rather than whatever would be the PS5 era, for example).
I hope not, in fact, I would like this to be reversed! I hate buying a disc for either X-box or PlayStation and having to download the disc into the hard-drive, not only is buying disc's for those consoles virtually pointless NOW, but I very much enjoyed it on the 360 PS3 generation where you put the disc in and play instantly. It's one of the many reasons why I love Nintendo consoles, ALL their consoles read from the disc/cartridge and play.
@SKTTR This is a huge problem. In my opinion, servers should never be shut down. Considering the size of the business, continuing to offer old libraries is way cheaper than offering a current mainstream system library. People pay expensive prices to buy the games digitally, so companies should offer them for redownload as long as companies are running
Piper Jaffray is wrong. Too many consumers who want choice and value out there.
@John_Deacon
"@SwitchForce "And Digital take up MicroSD space unlike cartridge which has the game and only uses saves and updates saving MicroSD space.""
That's where it pays to invest in a larger MicroSD card. I went from 200gb to 400gb card but it did cost but still happy I did that. The majority are Physical but I do have a dozen or so of Digital downloads.
"Ir depends on how many GB we have to download EVEN if we buy physical copies of many Switch games."
I would've rather download update then a FULL gig game.
"The Switch is already bringing us a harsh reality: buy half of some games physical and forcefully download the rest whether you would like to or not...."
Far better then a full game download...
@SwitchForce "I would've rather download update then a FULL gig game"
I meant the kind of thing like LA Noire, Mega Man Legacy Collections... You have to download half of these games. In my opinion, this is not a physical copy. It's a hybrid. In this condition, a game can be unplayable without a download, so I think we're already having to swallow partially digital games, even though we're buying physical media.
No chance of this happening by 2022 or even 2025, physical rules!
Hell no. You'll have to pry physical copies away from my cold dead hands
I doubt it, physical will still be around by 2025.
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