The Nintendo Switch has now been on the market nearly six months, but demand has led to continually limited stock in various territories. Some parts of Europe have decent availability, but in areas such as Japan and North America units can be tough to find. Nintendo, for its part, has repeatedly stated that it will strive to meet demand but stuck to its 10 million shipped units forecast in its Q1 financial reports.
An article by The Wall Street Journal (paywall) recounts the familiar tale of stock rapidly disappearing after it arrives in the US, and Japanese consumers queuing just to enter a ballot for a chance to buy one. It's a familiar tale, but along with a graph showing how units shipped in July in Japan did increase alongside Splatoon 2, the publication again states that manufacturing is prepped to ramp up beyond that 10 million target, with the suggestion that Nintendo may be making progress in resolving issues around limited parts and components.
Nintendo’s official target is to ship 10 million Switch units in its current fiscal year ending in March 2018. People involved in the supply chain say they have been told to prepare for 18 million units. One executive in the supply chain said his company was ready to pick up the pace of production if asked.
...People familiar with the supply chain say Nintendo is making progress working through shortages of key components, such as flash-memory chips and batteries. And it has overcome many of the challenges in assembling the machine’s detachable, wireless controllers, which pack sensors and other delicate components into a small space.
We certainly hope this is the case. With such positive momentum behind the Switch it'd be ideal for Nintendo to grow the userbase as rapidly as possible, especially in the Holiday season. Hopefully logistics and the company's level of ambition will make that happen.
With thanks to SLIGEACH_EIRE for the heads up.
Come on, Nintendo !
More Supply !!
That would be amazing news if it would really happen. The Switch outselling it's predecessor in just a year!
Can the Switch really beat the Wii U's lifetime sales in less than a year? Leave the Wii U alone...it's dead already
@GrailUK I don't think anyone was critizing the Wii U. They were just praising the Switch.
@Aaron09 Ow I know But how many times do you think it will get mentioned across the internet if it happens. Poor Wii U
Sadly, Wii U was dead long time ago.
The latest Karaoke games for Switch and Wii was the proof if Wii was still counted while Wii U considered as really dead console.
@GrailUK I'm not bashing the Wii U, I think it's a great system. But sadly it's sales are very close to the Dreamcast. The very console that made Sega give up on the hardware market.
I'd be very proud of Switch and Nintendo if the console could outsell the PiiU in less than a year. Sure hope Nintendo has enough supply to give people a decent chance of getting the console for the holidays.
If only SNES Classic production could be a quarter of that size...
Hopefully Nintendo is preparing for the Holiday season
I love my Switch, so maybe I just don't have enough faith in them, but...
18 million? Doesn't that seem like a lot? Even too much more to sell in the next 6 months?
I hope this is true. Let the machine reach the 18 mill, convince third-parties on the fence to come off and give support.
The prediction seems a bit too optimistic. Let's say it's sold 6 million so far, that means for the other half of the year they've to double the production. Doesn't seem likely especially given all the supposed component shortages. Plus, remember Nintendo had over 2 million stockpiled for the launch.
18 million Switches in stores worldwide...
And 18 total in Ireland...
@GrailUK I've just packed up my wii u and I didn't realise how many games I had for it!! I have over 40 games and the majority are absolutely fantastic!
How did this machine sell so poorly??? 😔
If all those optimistic predictions are because of Odyssey, I can't imagine where Pokémon will lead the Switch when it comes.
I'll wait to buy my Switch for Pokémon and I can feel a lot of people doing the same. I hope there will be no shortages when the time comes
@Great_Gonzalez the GamePad and name, honestly. By the time it debuted in 2012, people had largely moved on from the Wii branding, let alone something as confusing as Wii U with a $300+ asking price.
Then the Gamepad and it's limited range (and Fisher Price appearance) didn't help matters at all.
Wow, if this is true, what a turnaround from the Wii U. I've seen more supply now thank goodness. About time, Xmas will be here before we know it.
Wow, the Switch is doing very well despite my doubts about it. Great to see that it's currently successful.
I think they can sell 18m by March if they can make that many, production may be prepared to make that many but that's still a lot of parts to secure.
If Switch has sold 6m in 6 months, well the March-August time frame is the slow period for hardware sales, holiday is when the bulk of sales are made, and the Switch is going to be the most asked for item this holiday, especially after Nintendo starts marketing SMO, (I'm still hoping for a bundle.) so if they can make them they can sell them.
Nintendo usually has a September Nintendo Direct to talk about any holiday bundles and mske some mention of the next year's games. Super Smash Bros Deluxe or Super Mario Maker Deluxe for March - they always have a big game in March and May - would help build the hype, and demand, this holiday. All we really know for 2018 is Kirby and Yoshi, so we know there are more games they have yet to announce. And SSB4D is probably coming at some point.
So keep making them Nintendo, they'll sell.
@JubilifeRival Have you seen the queues in Japan? People queue just to enter a lottery for the chance to buy a Switch.
It's absolutely bonkers. I don't doubt that any extra they produced will be sold out fast.
It's 18 million over the fiscal year which ends March 31st 2018. This would mean that over the next 7 months (plus whatever remains in August). I would say that with the way sales are at the moment if you were to include the holiday season where they would likely increase shipments, 18 million seems pretty spot on. Currently, official numbers state 4.7 million consoles sold since March 3rd to June 30th 2017 (120 days). There are 275 days remaining in the fiscal year since the last published sales figures. If the same sales pace is maintained that would put switch sales at 10.77 million during that period, for a total of 15.47 million sales lifetime by end of March 31st 2018. If we assume supply will increase, as stated in the article, and holidays sales bump, that 2.53 million difference seems quite achievable. I would actually be quite surprised if they didn't reach 18 million by the end of March 31st 2018.
18million is a very realistic and achievable figure..
Ps4 is at 60 million after 3 years? And. It's actually not THAT popular.. If Switch goes viral then 100 million after 3 years is achievablele also. People forget that Wii fit was a system seller that stood 30 million wii fit boards and 57 million wii fit/wii fit plus games. If QOL platform takes off and is linked to Switch/Joycons..... It's happy happy happy days for Nintendo and investors.
I predict Nintendo will raise their Switch shipment forecast from 10 million to ~13 million. Nintendo has already shipped 2 million during FY2017 Q1. Shipping another ~11 million during FY2017 Q2-Q4 is possible given a raise in shipment forecasts.
If my prediction pan out, that means cumulative Switch sales will reach 15.7 million units by March 2018.
I wonder how to make Switch become a Viral ?
Youtube power is not enough.
Need more Interesting ideas such as Mannequin Challenge, Flash Mob, etc.
@BigYellow What are you talking about? I've thought there were millions of unopened Switches swarming the streets of Ireland? Have you even heard of the Great Irish Switch Hurricane of 2017?
Do note that production numbers != shipment numbers
I'm not surprised at all. This machine is a huge hit!
@Anti-Matter If one Switch owner buys a multiplayer game that all their friends want to play locally........
@Nintendoer I'm in Dublin right now... It's not the case lol..
There's already four in my house (wife, son, daughter, myself) so I guess we're doing our part to make Switch a success. It's a huge hit with all of us.
I loved Wii U. Always defended that console's merits, but the truth is it's not hard to see why it didn't catch on.
In the real world you have to have a product that people want badly enough to burn $300-400 on, above and beyond owning a standard PS4 or Xbox One or PC. Wii U had some great games (in fact 5 are on my all time fave list) but, it just didn't have enough appeal. Not enough games, terribly slow OS, and a Gamepad which was bulky. I appreciated the second screen in games like Monster Hunter, but as time went on I think I became disillusioned with the gamepad. It's value just didn't outweigh the negatives in the end.
With Switch, it doesn't take some analyst to explain why everyone loves the console. People can see it for themselves. It's got amazing games dropping in a rapidfire pace, it's lightning fast (which is crucial nowadays), and it serves as a competent home console + world's most powerful handheld + first ever portable home console via tabletop mode/detachable controllers. 3 integrated functions all in one, defeating the need to even have cross-buy or cross-save, or... even buying two different systems to need cross-buy on in the first place.
And that.... is something people want.
Wow, 18mil by March next year. After this coming holiday season, that should be pretty easy.
Stock has definitely increased in the NYC area. It still sells out in a day, but they're selling out many more units and getting supply refreshes more often. They even had some in stock at Gamestop without bundles!
I'm hoping they do a hardware revision. As the switch still had some issues from what I understand.
( I'm talking internal build quality, not a Switch to switch slim or whatever)
So happy it's selling well. I'm still watching and waiting.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE if they can build them, Nintendo can easily sell the balance during holidays IMHO.
I hope they do, no more shortages please.
This seems a wee bit too uncanny valley, but I will say I am still impressed on how the Switch is selling
@JubilifeRival I don't think so. I've had Splatoon 2 since the day it came out. However, I have yet to find a Switch to play it on. I honestly believe that Nintendo could put 2 million Switch on Amazon today, and all 2 million would be gone in an hour.
@Lysis Really? I got to keep an eye out! Thanks for the update!
"Ps4 is at 60 million after 3 years? And. It's actually not THAT popular.. If Switch goes viral then 100 million after 3 years is achievablele also"
Er, no. After 3 years Wii was at 67 million, DS was at 64 million and PS2 was at 51 million.
Switch will not be at 100 million over 3 years. If it gets anywhere near 100 million in 6 years it's done well.
I'm so highly optimistic about the Switch! Switch is on its way to beat Wii U sales in less than a year! Still doubt it'll sell like the Wii.
I assumed the 10 million was them being cautious due to the derision they received when Iwatas and co's 13/14 forecasts were millions out. Raising them might be another little way to help build momentum.
@Great_Gonzalez I'm with you man! Wii U rocked! I don't understand why nobody bought it
@electrolite77 it only has to be more popular than ps4, wii, gameboy etc. fingers crossed!
"One executive in the supply chain said his company was ready to pick up the pace of production if asked."
Of course that person is saying this, because that's what an executive usually says. They should rather ask the workers whether they're actually ready to pick up the pace.
"Some parts of Europe have decent availability, but in areas such as Japan and North America units can be tough to find."
Lol, that's probably because the EU is the weakest market (which becomes apparent when playing Splatoon).
I was always wondering why so many people on NL still find it hard to find a Switch, but now I understand why that is. Demand just doesn't seem to be that high in the EU and tbh that's a shame.
Wish I was living in a stronger Nintendo market...
Well at least we'll get a realistic idea of the demand for this thing. Sure, it's selling fast. Yes, people are queuing up to get it. But that's arguably because of such limited stock.
I wonder what the sales would be if the Switch was readily available (zero stock shortages). Still good, yes, but would folk be feeling so optimistic about 18 million sales in year one?
@Monkey_Balls Agreed. If there were plentiful stock on shelves, people may have remained hesitant to take the plunge. Don't forget, when the price of $300 was announced (with no pack-in game), many thought it was too high. That being said, I think Mario Odyssey will make this a popular Christmas gift.
BTW, I finally bought a Switch this last week. First time I have found it available in a store after the initial launch day (Gamestop).
More bendy consoles on the way!
@Monkey_Balls Maybe 200K units per week in Japan.
@drich255 Even if it's $150, many people will still think that it's too high. 10 people is many people.
@NinNin It is anecdotal, but most of the podcasters I listened to did not predict a price higher than $250. Probably the same for these forums. Which is what the price was rumored to be in 2016. http://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-switch-price-rumors-2016-11
$300 (plus expensive costs for additional controllers) is a price point high enough to not be an impulse buy. People who haven't bought a Nintendo console since the Wii will still take a wait and see approach. And if the console were abundant on store shelves, they would not need to rush into a decision.
@drich255 I think most people buy a Switch because they want to play games on it, not because it's hard to buy. I'm not sure what you're trying to say, though. If there is no stock shortage, the Switch will definitely sell better. If 100 people want to buy your product, but you can only produce 10, you can sell only 10. If you can produce 50, you can sell only 50. However, if you produce 200, 100 will be on the shelves. In that case, you have to slow down the production. The question is what is the number? I think that's what @Monkey_Balls wants to know.
@Nintendoer Oh yeah, there's 4.2 million Switches just sitting there unsold in Limerick alone. The knackers are building their horse carts out of those unused, unsold consoles.
@shani I thought parts of the EU were fairly strong while other parts were weak. I think building the market was the main reason Nintendo got FIFA on the system. It is the best selling game in Europe... so hopefully that will change things.
@NinNin I don't think we really disagree. I just think a lot of people are waiting for a game bundle or a price drop (in addition to waiting for more quantities). But they may end up biting the bullet to get one for Christmas.
The Switch's portability works double in its favor over the Wii U. It will attract users who want the portability and, acording to people in the forums, people are willing to buy multiple Switches for other family members. So it would not be a surprise at all to see it stomp the Wii U. Of all my friends and extended family, every one of them had a Wii, but only 3-4 of them own a Wii U (and they definitely don't own two of them).
@shani "Lol, that's probably because the EU is the weakest market (which becomes apparent when playing Splatoon)."
But the UK has Dude (ThatSrb2DUDE). Arguably one of the best Splatoon players in the world. A team of 4 of him would totally dominate any team from anywhere!
@roboshort You're probably right about FIFA. And of course there are differences in each EU member state. E.g. the Switch is barely visible in Germany, but on the flipside it's easily available. ^^
But I think in total the EU has less Switch owners than NA and JP. it becomes apparent every time I try to play a Splatoon match (due to regional matchmaking, otherwise I wouldn't notice it).
@masterLEON Absolutely! At times I tgink he might be a bit overrated (regarding the hype), but he's still one of the best in the world, I agree. Sadly, he's more like the exception to the rule.
The Splatoon2 tournament at E3 was another hint for Europe's inferiority though, I think.
Mario comes at late October right? What will be the killer tittles for holiday season? I mean ok it already have the big four Zelda/Splatoon/Mario kart/Odyssey but i don't see something for Xmas.
@shani Well, I don't see Nintendo and the Switch gaining much momentum in the EU until they complete the apparent 'holy trilogy of gaming' that every 'harcore' gaming platform should have, CoD, GTA, and FIFA. The EU seems so mainstream that you can probably open a game shop with only GTA, FIFA, and CoD, maybe F-1 and Minecraft as well, and still turn a profit, LOL.
Well, at least now there's FIFA. So that's getting one foot in the door.
Super Mario Odyssey will be released on Friday, 27 October 2017 with MSRP US$ 60.
Prepare some money.
For Christmas, anticipate Xenoblade 2 on December 2017.
@Anti-Matter I'll sure do! Xenoblade is critically acclaimed but its hardly a system seller though.. Kinda worry if it will be enough... Hope Odyssey will still be hot after 2 months.
@shani Yeah. Probably fewer users in Europe. I live in Japan and I have yet to see a unit on a shelf. Im glad I preordered mine. I hope Nintendo can build the European market.
@dimi Mario Odyssey will still be a big holiday title (assuming it reviews well). Parents may also be looking for Black Friday deals (which is only a month after Mario's release).
@roboshort I hope so too!
It would also be nice if the number of produced/shipped/available units would match the demand. It's a shame that NA ans JP users can barely find a Switch while it's comparatively easy to get one in the EU.
If there weren't certain commitments to retailers etc, Nintendo could totally ship those surplus units to the other regions.
@masterLEON Couldn't agree more!
Wouldn't worry too much. Mario will have legs well into the big sales period. The sales pitch to potential new Switch owners is Mario/Zelda/Splatoon/Mario Kart/a Pokémon spin-off with a solid B-tier of Mario v Rabbids, FE Warriors, Xenoblade and Arms. Then there's a few mainstream pulls like Lego, FIFA, NBA, Just Dance and WWE. Yeah another big hitter in November would be ideal but it's a very strong first year line-up.
That's a lot of consoles. Considering they're talking fiscal year and it sold around 3 million in March before 18 million this fiscal year it would be equalling the GameCube's lifetime sales in 13 Months
@drich255 @NinNin Sorry, I've only just seen your replies to my comment. I think we're all in general agreement but to clarify: I'm wondering just how popular the Switch really is. The stock shortages will have made some impact on the buying public's decision-making, which could help create false demand.
Also, if the Switch has sold about 6 million so far then a lot of the Nintendo faithful haven't managed to get one yet (I still haven't, albeit I have purposely waited). It's likely to be mostly those people searching high and low for one. We'll see the reality of the demand once the majority of the Nintendo fans have their machines.
Will the unhappy Wii U gamers return? Will Sony, Xbox and PC fans make a purchase? Will the general masses (the "casuals") be interested? Etc, etc. So far, while the sales look good on paper, in reality we (and Nintendo) can't be sure of how popular the Switch really is. Or how it'll sell.
However... Stifle production > create demand > increase production > release Mario Odyssey. Maybe this was Nintendo's plan all along?
@BigYellow We got 19 in the US so don't feel bad.
I would hope they would increase production. I live in Indiana and work at an Electronics store...and people are driving up from Texas to buy ALL the switches we have. Which was 3.
They can't sell 18 million in a year. I think switch is going to hit a bubble and slow down. I see them in stock pretty much all the time at my local Target now days.
With the lineup it'll have by the time we get into the holiday season, I can see this happening.
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