Iwata Cites "Same-Generation Hypothesis" For Strong Smash Bros. And Pokémon Performance

Well, that's just a really long and winded way to point out the obvious.

@Prof_Clayton Imagine having to explain it to investors who may not be gamers

I do actually wonder. Do you think Smash Bros. can sell as much as Smash Brothers Melee before this generation ends? If you owned a gamecube, you almost definitely owned Smash Brothers as well.

Pokemon sapphire/Emerald is my favorite pokemon game of all time mostly because of the creative pokemon it had.

While I'm happy that sapphire is getting a remake, I'd rather get it later due to the fact that it'll first come out with bugs like the previous one and that there are some changes that I don't know if I'll like it or not.

I did play Melee and I enjoyed it but only because there was a LOT to do for single player unlike in this one.......

@Janfeae Do remember though that Gamecube sales were relatively low at the time.

I think Iwata is right in his analysis, but a little off in the demographic. I would say 15-22, not 18-25. I'm 25 and nobody my age was playing Pokemon in 2003. We were 14-15 in 2003. That's the "Ew, Pokemon is for kids!" age where we thought "childish" things would make us uncool. I distinctly remember going to my first party when I was 15, so no, I definitely wasn't playing Pokemon lol.

I never played pokemon on handheld I was a bit too old (about 15-16) at the time and have never felt the urge to try one. Then again if one were to release on home console (a proper one, not Colosseum) I might give that a go. Saying that though he is right, I loved Super Mario Bros as a kid and although I'm not suckered into buying everything Mario I look forward to every single one of the main games. It makes me feel younger

SSB U may not sell as much since the 3ds iteration will have people thinking differently to upgrade. (I know it's a lot more than an upgrade).

I've been with nintendo since i was a child with the NES back in the late 80's early 90's. I was introduced to smash brothers, mario kart, and pokemon in highschool. I have played every generation of smash and mario kart since then. However, due to more important responsibilities and priorities, I stopped playing pokemon about 6 years ago since it is awfully time consuming. However, I am 31 years old right now and I still play both mario kart and smash. MK8 has been my main game since it was released, now I am waiting on Smash Wii U. The older you get, the less time you have to play and the less of a priority games are. I expect this to be my last generation of both titles, as I have a family now, but I will enjoy this current generation to the fullest

I skipped that generation but I do love Pokemon and my kids do too. I don't have much time to game but I still spend a lot of money on video games because I still play them, not as much as I used to. But I still am able to play at night. I rarely play my Wii U though. My oldest plays it more than I do. Never played Smash Bros Melee either but own Super Smash Bros for the 3DS.

This is my case.

@Light man don't look at it like that. There's no reason this needs to be your last gen, this can simply be the generation in which you start playing with your children I used to play games like Sonic and Road Rash with my mum from the age of about 3 upwards. Use it as an opportunity to impart a love of gaming into your kids, as a fun activity to do together with them, and this could become your busiest gaming generation in a long time!

@SpookyMeths That's a shame though. I remember the whole "Pokemon is for kids", but I enjoyed every game as it came out. Although I will admit it was around that time when I stopped watching the tv show. But that was more along the lines because Ash kept making the same dumb mistakes he did in past seasons.

@Light "I expect this to be my last generation of both titles, as I have a family now, but I will enjoy this current generation to the fullest"

I agree with the time part, as I also have a family now, but part of enjoying this to the fullest has been sharing these games with my kids. They love playing Mario Kart with me, as well as Super Mario 3D, and Super Bros Wii U. My daughter is playing Wind Waker HD now and has fun if I sit and watch, or give her tips when stuck (I keep them as spoiler free as possible). They love animal crossing on the 3DS, as well as Luigi's Mansion 3DS. They love when we all sit down every other Friday and play Mario Party, or Wii U party. All because I bought these for my self.

I don't think games are going anywhere for me, or my new little gamers.

Alright Iwata, now just take that philosophy, and apply it to Kirby Air Ride, and make a sequel! Please!!

"Societal change" is probably a better explanation for SSB sales than same-generation. SSB is the 1st in the series on a handheld, handhelds are huge now, really the only consoles that matter in Japan, SSB on a portable almost had no choice but to be huge.

If they're correct and most people buying Pokemon are 18-25 or whatever then more power to them, but from my vantage point ASOR will sell well to kids who are too young to have played the originals. Probably kids who watch the Saturday morning cartoon - yes Saturday morning cartoons still exist - and play w/ the cards. Pokemon is a phenomena way beyond the videogames. I don't like the games, cards or tv show but the movies are really good family entertainment which is hard to find.

If he's correct though, how about a Pokemon game on the Wii U? (I'm still expecting Pokepark 3 w/ amiibo support at some point in the future.)

@ SteveButler2210 @TRON
You guys do have a point. I guess since my daughter is still a baby and hasn't reached that gaming age yet, I hadn't really thought much about it. Even if I slow down, I can still have fun with them, I just wouldn't play as competively as i do now. Either way, nintendo is the only family gaming platform in my opinion, and I have plenty of time to reconsider. Thanks guys!

@Light
I completely understand. Babies are a full time job, I pretty much missed the last generation, and felt much as you do now probably. Now they are 5 and 9, and can finally understand what a double jump is. Good times.

@Light
I've been thinking the same thing being 29 with 2 kids and plan to grow the family more. I haven't fallen off the grid yet. I figure that if I can ever convince myself to stop buying games I don't have time to play, I have a ton of games to go back and replay - if I can find the time for it.

Yes. So how about you make some Metroid games.

Anyway, Nintendo's problem is, is they can't keep all those gamers growing up with them. They throw out a net as they age, a few get caught, but others move on.

They should be looking at that as where their potential growth should be.

@Samuel-Flutter It is a shame, and I feel silly looking back. Guess that's a part of growing up though.

@SpookyMeths

And how the hell do you know if he's off with the age demographic? Please know it was probably data collected, not his own observation.

@SpookyMeths Yeah, I was 13 or 14 when R/S came out and I didn't have much interest in Pokemon by that point (though I still played them, lol). It wasn't until I went back and played Emerald in college that I really appreciated Gen III. Still my least favorite group of Pokemon overall though. I will be buying Alpha Sapphire but probably not on day 1, since dat Smash Bros.

Never played it before myself - though the nostalgia factor was still a massive pull.

This is definitely true. I see plenty of teenagers nearing adulthood who use emulators on their Smartphones to play Gen 3 Pokemon games. Iwata is right, but 3DS isn't their platform of choice.

A delightfully positive way of saying "a decade has passed and we're still making the exact same stuff" (not that I'm dissing that approach, it just amused me that's all).

Might be why they're releasing Wii U Smash and the remakes on the same day in the west, but damn the man is correct. Unfortunately for me I'll have delay ORuby's purchase till December, because of budgeting.

I've noticed that a lot of 80's gamers don't seem to like Pokemon or Smash Bros. very much... It must be the opposite of Iwata's theory; they didn't grow up with it and it didn't appeal to them when it came out in the 90's, thus they still have no interest in it today.

I think it is a pretty valid statement. around 2001-2003 many gamers were old enough to earn their own income with part time jobs which made them more likely to have a pretty decent attach rate. I know my gaming went up during those years because I was in highschool at the time and had some of my own money. If you spent a decent chunk of those years gaming then you are more likely to revisit the games later installments or remakes. I didn't have a GBA (and didn't care by the time the DS came out) so I want the remakes of the pokemon games to see what the fuss is all about.

nervous chuckle Yeah...2001... sigh

@Janfeae I own a Gamecube and I don't have melee. It's too expensive, I'm not paying $40 for a 'Cube game. I have plenty others, like Pikmin, and Metroid Prime.

that's me

Well, being 19.. The demographic is right for me!

Yep, for the most part. Played every iteration of Smash Bros. (except the one to be released); not so much with Pokemon. Haven't played Pokemon since Platinum.

Well, I never played any of the original games... Not sure this is correct for the Pokémon games. Lots of kids will be getting Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire. Kids that have been playing X and Y the past year are most likely to have a rather high interest in them, not because of the original games Ruby and Sapphire, but because it's the "New Pokémon game". Super Smash Bros. on the other hand, probably, yes.

You know what else released in that timeframe?

Metroid Prime.

I think Iwata is wising up, and he's definitely onto something here. We were the crowd enjoying those games 10 years ago, and we are the driving force for sales now. With that in mind, it makes sense that they're bringing back Star Fox, and I wouldn't be surprised if other games from that era, such as Meteoid Prime, saw new entries as well.

Heck, I'm just glad they made a new Pikmin. And it was so-so so good.

Well, I'm 23 and he's damn right. I'll be playing those games these holidays. And since I'm able to afford games for some relatives (6 and 9 year old) I guess they'll be the ones that buy the next ORAS remakes and Smash Bros (6?)

Funny thing getting older, the movie & gaming industry try to cater for your nostalgia a lot more, growing up I had Turtles, Transformers & Ghostbusters toys, I played tonnes of games back then too... But now that we are older, have jobs & more money companies try to tap into that nostalgia factor hence Transformers, Turtles & the plethora of comic book movies, tonnes of 80's & 90's references in shows like Family Guy & Simpsons as well as gaming bringing back old franchises or re-releasing classic games on Virtual Console/PSN/XBLA etc. I'm pushing 30 & as others have mentioned I don't have as much time to play nowadays but helping my young nephew discover classic games has been a joy & he's been enjoying playing Sonic, Mario , Mega Man even Castlevania with me & even getting his friends to try them out too! Gives me a bit of hope for the future! Also did anyone else read Iwata's quote in his voice or is it just me?

I've never not played a game because I thought it would make me look uncool or because I thought I was too old.

Cool. He's totally right. How about a Super Mario Sunshine sequel then?

I played Melee to death, but I wasn't a big Pokemon fan back then .

@SpookyMeths
According to Nintendo, the majority of Pokemon's fans are college age, which would be 18-25. I believe Nintendo Life reported on that too.

Your certainly right about going through the "grown up" stage, although that doesn't mean a lot of people declaring Pokemon as such didn't play them in secret. People are known to say what they think they should say, but do something completely different.

And Halo: The Master Chief Collection is generating buzz as well (compared to, say, the Metro and Sleeping Dogs upgrades). Nostalgia sells.

I stopped plaiying video games like in 2008 I think the last game I played was ocarina of time or banjo kazooi one of those I can't remember. After that I dedicated my life to music and then skateboarding. So I didn't played melee or those pokemons. I just liked the red, blue, yellow versions and I thought the next generation of Pokemon were so fake! Now I come back gaming in 2011 and I started playing nintendo last year. I already have smash for 3ds and ill get it for wii U. ill check out those Pokemon series to see if they have some similarities to some of the first entries of the series. I have Pokemon Y and I didn't like it, I'm not really playing it. Too much 3d for me and the controls sucks, the guy moves to fast or too slow :/

I´m 23 now and I played both of those games back in the day. Next, give something for the F-Zero GX generation, wink wink.

@Luffymcduck I was just about to say that. According to this theory, F-Zero will be a platinum seller. After all, Star Fox is coming, so F-Zero needs to be next!

and we're nearly 10 years overdue, by this logic, for a new Mother game...

@Gabjazz You quit gaming in 2008 and the last games you played were for the N64? And Melee was released 7 years prior to that.

I will assume that you meant 1998 to alleviate anyone from 'correcting' me.

That is true. I'm 24 right now. But I didn't had the chance of getting the GameCube or the GameBoy Advance back in that decade.

Now that I'm older, I own both a Wii U and a Nintendo 3DS.

Uhhhh... These are some poor examples to apply this hypothesis towards, methinks.

Super Smash Bros. Melee was an exceptional piece of work that stands on it's own, and it still commands greater respect in many core Smash circles than Brawl. Why else would the modding scene for Brawl have focused so much on rebalancing it with Melee as inspiration? If the mechanics trends from Brawl continues, we may be faced with a similar situation of Smash Bros 4 eventually being modded to be more influenced by Melee than by Brawl. Thus, the more enthusiastic buyers among the Smash Bros. 4 crowd are probably moreso Brawl fans than Melee fans.

Amongst the Pokemon fandom, Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald is often considered to be a weak link in the Pokemon saga. If people are clamoring for proper remakes, it's less likely to be true that the people from 10 years ago are simply buying the game out of a sense of nostalgia, and more likely that the Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald chapter in particular was just more in need of remaking than other chapters. Generation 3 is better recognized for being home to the main bulwark of fan mods throughout the Pokemon saga, as well as the ever popular Red/Green remakes.

If we use Iwata's hypothesis, then it would be more accurate to apply it to Heart Gold / Soul Silver and Smash Bros Brawl, each of which sold significantly better than expected, due to older fans generally remembering Generation 2 as a strong link in the Pokemon saga, and Smash Bros. Melee as an incredible community experience for it's time. Thus, the time frame of the hypothesis results should be malleable, not fixed.

@SpookyMeths If demographics of the Pokemon fandom's communities, such as GameFAQ's 10,000's of people in it's Pokemon community, is to be taken as an example of what age groups the core older fandom is concentrated into, then Nintendo is spot on in demographics reports. I think there have even been some polls on GameFAQ's about age groups and Pokemon on this matter, which could be aggregated to further support Iwata's implications...

That's about right, if you played the first pokemon in 98/99 and were about 11 or under, you'd be around 25 or under now - or the Millennial smartphone generation, that are abandoning gaming, as they are now. I'm proud that I'm old enough to have played NES during its actual Zeitgeist, while also playing your generations games.