Topic: So I went into Wal Mart and..

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@SCAR392

This gen will be more like the sixith gen than last one in terms of how different the consoles will be out the gate,

One of the neogaf mod's posted this which is a much eloquent way of explaining the problem the Wii U is in,

I think the Wii U has some great games. I think off-tv play can be really fun in certain contexts. I think Miiverse is neat. I think the web browser function works pretty well. And I'm glad Nintendo removed barriers to independent developers, and I hope it pays dividends for those independent developers.

But as a Wii U owner, I don't think I'd recommend it to a low-information consumer considering purchasing it. I do not expect strong or robust third party support on a go-forward basis. My evidence for this is the following: 1) The Wii U's hardware sales are not experiencing the kind of curve we expect typical hardware sales to experience. 2) Third party support thusfar has been weak and getting weaker as existing third party publishers begin skipping Wii U SKUs. 3) Higher than expected initial uptake has been observed on the next generation of consoles, and the transition from cross-generational titles to PS4/Xbox One exclusive titles appears to be occurring at the expected rate or faster. 4) Retail partners have also shown an overall low willingness to take a risk on third party games. As a result, I expect the stock situation to be generally poor and exert pressure against publishers continuing to release Wii U SKUs. I don't think any of this is a wild stab in the dark.

I would not recommend the existing third party support over other hardware options. Even ignoring the option for the PC, most Wii U versions are at best equal to versions released for Xbox 360. There are, I believe, a few exceptions. Need for Speed Most Wanted is clearly one, although I'm not sure I'd recommend said game on any platform. Watch_Dogs was purported to be another, however its release schedule is tenuous right now. I personally see shades of The Last Remnant PS3 in that delay announcement. I would say that if someone sat out last generation and wanted to check out some games from the last few years, their best hardware option would not be Wii U.

I don't think either the breadth or depth of the first-party options is particularly must-have, even in specific niches like local multiplayer or kid-focused games. I would say that the best kid-focused option is Lego City Undercover, while the best local-multiplayer options are Game and Wario's Fruit Thief mode or Nintendoland's Mario Chase. There are more than a few great first party games out there, although for me nothing so far has been something that I'd regret missing if I was the kind of person who didn't buy every platform.

I am not particularly inspired by the possibility of future first-party support on the basis that it's not clear Nintendo has mastered production realities associated with the larger scale of games and higher quality assets (in other words, I expect continued delays, gaps in software releases, and drought, even if we assume Nintendo does not voluntarily reduce their commitment to the system). I don't expect them, for the life of the system, to be able to release games at a sustainable clip. In addition, I expect their emphasis to be on sure-fire franchises for the most part. As someone who bought a lot of Nintendo's weirder software on GBA, DS, and Wii, I don't expect a lot of the stranger stuff to get an opportunity to release on Wii U. This is not a pressure that other platform owners are immune to, of course. Both Sony and Microsoft bank heavily on major IPs. But for Nintendo, the impact is different because of the aforementioned third party struggles.

I think the independent developers that are coming to the Wii U could be an interesting development. There's obviously some Nintendo die-hards like Renegade Kid and Shin'en, who are making good titles, but there's also a bunch of first-time devs. So far their offerings have not been breakout, they've been basically comparable to the kind of stuff coming out on WiiWare. But in the future, that might change, and one of the philosophies about independent development is that you never know where the next breakout will come from. I will say that most of the "big indies"--independent developers with past breakout hits--do not appear to be gravitating towards Nintendo. Towerfall, which actually would be fantastic on the GamePad, is about to release on PC and PS4. The Witness, which is coming up on PS4, iOS, and PC is not likely to get a Wii U release. I don't say this to poop on any one platform, but rather to situation where I see indies on Wii U: If you own a Wii U, you'll get some neat titles that are worth your time and money. But if you don't own a Wii U, I don't think the independent gaming options really change purchase considerations.

I don't see any of the aforementioned realities likely to change. I don't think a major uptick in hardware and software purchasing will occur. I don't think future first-party titles are likely to change reality. My best evidence for this is that current software has not. Smash Bros and Mario Kart are both huge franchises, but so were 2D and 3D Mario games. So were Wii Sports and Wii Fit for that matter. Now, this may be wrong--maybe it's the case that all four of those franchises are a little worn out but Smash Bros and Mario Kart are fresh. But just based on the balance of probabilities, I would say it's not likely that things are going to flip upsidedown. Also, because of the GamePad and because of low production volumes, as well as Nintnedo's need to avoid dramatic loss-leading, I don't think it's likely Nintendo will be able to significantly reduce the hardware cost in order to respond to price pressure both from legacy consoles and newly launched consoles. I expect Microsoft in particular to pursue aggressive hardware cost reduction the way Sony did with the PS3.

Of course if you're a dedicated consumer and you follow all the games and you're sure that what's currently available and/or announced--be careful you don't put your hopes on games that get cancelled though--is enough to justify the purchase of the console, feel free to do it. There are lots of happy Wii U owners out there. I'm a relatively happy Wii U owner. I'd make the same recommendation about the PS4 and Xbox One; if you're sure you're getting your money's worth, do it. But if you're unsure or looking for a safe bet, hold out.

I bought a Wii U because I ended up getting a pro system for what amounted to $100 near launch. At that pricepoint, I'd recommend pretty much any hardware because your hardware-cost-per-game is quite low. I'd say the Wii U is a better recommendation for someone who also doesn't have a Wii, but the price of used Wiis is quite low so I'm not sure I'd actually recommend the "future-proofing" of the Wii U versus just getting the cheapest used Wii you can find.

If you're a low information low commitment consumer, you're just Joe Random looking for something to play, I'd easily recommend either of the past-generation systems on the basis that they have enormous libraries widely available at low software prices in pretty much every genre, including some really wonderful games. And that's true even in genres that Nintendo is typically considered to be the best at.

I don't think this is a "doom forecast". I'm sure plenty of people disagree. I'm sure plenty of people think I'm being toxic. But ultimately I think a degree of pragmatism in looking at purchases is a valuable tool to prevent purchase regret or anxiety, which seems to be very common here and elsewhere.