@Magician so if we suppose that Nintendo releases software on both it's current and last gen hardware for ~3 years, where's the impetus for current Switch users to upgrade to the next gen hardware if it's the same but more powerful?
Like I mentioned in my post above the large majority of the current Switch audience won't be led by a modest bump in power alone, they need something compelling that the current Switch doesn't offer, otherwise there's no real benefit in migrating from the existing product.
@BobLongRickTangle
Again, read my posts. Nintendo's primary goal isn't to convince people who have a Switch to get up and upgrade to the Switch 2. Their goal is to convince people to buy into their platform and remain on their platform as opposed to spending their money on other platforms
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@skywake this isn't how business works. If users don't migrate to the latest products eventually they forget about the outdated ones they do own - as you mentioned they're already starting to look shakey on this front.
And I'm not suggesting that the new console won't be more powerful - of course it will. My point is that a bump in power alone is only going to appeal to a small portion of their overall audience. Meaning that this approach wouldn't move the needle in terms of what matters to any business: profit and growth over anything else.
Furthermore, if Nintendo truly wanted to create a two-tier platform with one appealing to "hardcore" fans and another appealing to everyone else, then a "Pro" version of Switch would be a much less risky proposition, whereas a new platform necessitates software specifically designed for that platform, that doesn't run on last gen hardware, as well as starting the audience again from zero.
@Magician Not quite, the last 1st party support on PS4 was the free God of War Ragnarok expansion (Valhalla) in December 2023. If you're to count VC releases (that's essentially what the PS4/PS5 version of Everybody's Golf 2 is), it's only fair to also count expansions.
If you want to count MLB The Show then it's MLB The Show 24 in March 2024 though MLB dictates which platforms the game comes to despite being made by Sony so it's very different from everything else.
In any case, Sony's approach with PS4 support post-PS5 launch was a result of the pandemic. Massive PS5 stock issues resulted in Sony backtracking on "we believe in generations" because there wasn't enough PS5 consoles out in the wild. In an alternate reality where the pandemic didn't happen in 2020, crossgen releases would've no doubt mostly been PS5 only (Horizon Forbidden West, Gran Turismo 7, God of War Ragnarok). Sackboy definitely would've been crossgen considering LBP3 was crossgen PS3/PS4, not sure about Miles Morales.
@Magician@BobLongRickTangle@Grumblevolcano@skywake I think it's reasonable to expect a new 3D Mario, a new Mario Kart, a new Animal Crossing etc to be released within the first year or so of the Switch 2 - there is no way any of those titles get released on Switch 1.
If they do a HD port of Luigi's Mansion 1, could that come to Switch 1 and 2? there's a good chance, but there is no way any top tier titles are coming to Switch 1.
Wasn't part of the reason Sony did multi platform for so long due to production issues of the PS5 stemming from covid?
@skywake yeah and one I already addressed. Nintendo's primary goal, like all businesses, is growth.
Your suggestion that they don't need to convince people to migrate to their new platform is an assumption. A flawed assumption that you appear to be basing on an iPhone-like model. However while Apple releases new iPhone models every 2 years the Switch has been in the wild for 7 years and counting. The option for users some users to stick to the older models while continuing to purchase games doesn't apply here as the software won't cross over 1-for-1 like phones do, and the technology gap between 2 years vs. 8 years is just too big.
Nintendo could have taken this route by providing semi-regular model updates with modest bumps in power each time, but they clearly decided against it.
The only person who said anything along those lines was @BobLongRickTangle when they were constructing their straw man
No straw man, you suggested that Nintendo doesn't care if people migrate from Switch to the successor or not, as long as they are buying games. I asked you how Nintendo would achieve this unless games were simultaneously releasing games for both platforms.
Perhaps you were suggesting that Nintendo would continue to develop separate games for both platforms then? Going back to a situation they have spent years trying to get away from.
Like I mentioned in my post above the large majority of the current Switch audience won't be led by a modest bump in power alone, they need something compelling that the current Switch doesn't offer, otherwise there's no real benefit in migrating from the existing product.
You mentioned at some point that the main audience for Nintendo is families with children. The thing about children, especially of a certain age group, is that they change every few years. So it is not always about upgrading for that major audience, it is about having something that appeals to families looking for a new console e.g. 3 years from now. Switch is already designed to work well for children, already has a price point below major competing consoles, has much more brand trust than their closest form-wise competitor Steam Deck, continues to have family oriented award-winning games . If I was a parent looking for a new console for my 6 year old, I wouldn't care if there was a gimmick which didn't previously exist, I would just look for good and trusted family games in an affordable device which works well for children. Switch has all of these and Switch 2 surely will also. I might also look for:
Is there any bad marketing/ reasons to avoid. For example reviews about new popular games running terribly. Switch has this increasingly (e.g. another Crab's Treasure) but Switch 2 presumably won't have this issue as much.
If I want to occasionally steal my child's Switch or if an older sibling wants to share it, can Switch run some varied games for older people like e.g. CoD or other major third party games. Again, Switch 2 will be better in this regard than current Switch.
A new crazy gimmick might convince a few people to rush out and get a new device, but it's hard to imagine one so innovative that it really affects the main audience's decision.
In terms of actively upgrading rather than being a new device? That lies mostly on the games and Nintendo will have to make compelling Switch-2 exclusives. Again, their ability to do that is fairly independent of any gimmicks.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Nintendo will likely add a new gimmick (more AR anyone? Or new weird peripherals?), but I don't actually think it will be the main selling point or be fundamental to all that many games.
You mentioned at some point that the main audience for Nintendo is families with children. The thing about children, especially of a certain age group, is that they change every few years.
Ding ding ding!
Edit: another thought to add. I said earlier the main game in town is maintaining an appealing product and reducing friction. It's worth noting that abruptly stopping support for a previous console is a pretty high friction act.
They don't want to force a transition from Switch before the Switch 2 becomes appealing enough for people to jump. Because they might jump to PS5, or PC.... or even nothing at all. It's a risk. But if that transition is smooth? You're more likely to hold onto them for longer
There was an iPhone analogy earlier but consider this possibility. Imagine if every new iPhone had a new app store. Or even every 5th iPhone. And when the new iPhone dropped they just stopped approving apps. How many more people would still be on iPhone? There would be riots
If Nintendo can nail backwards compatibility including moderate enhancements for legacy titles on Switch 2? If they can do that and continue to push out some stuff that still can run on Switch for a couple of years? They will have successfully smoothed out the transition, and they'll be better off for it
Anecdotal point. In the mid 90s, probably around 95, I got a GameBoy. I also had a SNES but really the GameBoy was my main gaming device. I stuck with the chonky thing until I finally upgraded to a GBC in 2000. Main reason? So I could play my existing GB games in colour. Mostly Pokemon because, well, Pokemon
A year later the GBA launched. I didn't pick it up. I knew it existed and was kinda into the idea of it, basically a portable SNES, but I was still happy with my then still new GBC. Then they stopped making GBC games so I just stopped playing the GB. I moved on to mostly PC games
.... of course I did pick up a DS when the Lite launched and every Nintendo console since but still. That's how these kinds of transitions can play out. People generally aren't platform loyal. You can give them something to loose or something to gain which helps but isn't really a guarantee. Platform holders are mostly just trying to be the one people pick on their way through
@skywake I did read the rest of your post, but to be honest it was 95% meaningless fluff that distracted from your handwaving comments that Nintendo doesn't need to cater towards it's biggest audience. And that's why I focused on it in my response.
All of your arguments for why a more powerful Switch is a compelling offering apply only to the Nintendo core audience (the kind of people who would buy a fridge if it had a Nintendo logo on it and played Super Mario Bros). The family audience doesn't care, the kid audience doesn't care, and the core gaming audience already have a range of devices that cater to the same needs that the Switch provides whilst also being more powerful - with more seemingly on the way.
All the while the Nintendo core audience is the smallest of section of the entire Switch audience.
When was the last time Nintendo catered to this audience? When they released hardware powerful enough to keep up with the rest of the industry? When they released Mother 3 outside of Japan or a new F-Zero game? When they made it easy for you to use their online services with voice chat? Nintendo doesn't have to care about this audience as it is literally the one that brings in the least money for them, they just dangle a couple of carrots (MP4, the possibility of WW/TP ports) for an entire generation and that's enough for most of this audience to pull the trigger. Meanwhile Nintendo is using the power of convenience combined with nostalgia to bring in a whole new audience that has propelled them to greater profits than all of their other generations combined. But sure; it's me that has this all backwards.
You have a wrong idea of the target audience of Nintendo video games. They are mainly teenagers - young adults, and to both of those groups the power of the hardware is very significant. Gaming is more popular than ever, and gimmicks can only get you so far. The only gimmick that has really worked in Nintendo's favor was the Wii, and this was the epitome of a one hit wonder, which quickly fell of after the novelty wore off. Nintendo doesn't need a one hit wonder, they need a system with longevity and little risk.
Nintendo's power has always been strong software, and as long as they produce compelling hardware at competitive prices that offers advantages over the competition (Switch has plenty of them), they will succeed.
So, the only thing that Nintendo needs to do with the Switch successor is make it more powerful, to get more support from 3rd party companies and be able to run games with modern graphics at respectable fps. A gimmick can be thrown for good measure but it will only be the cherry on top, not the selling point. Oh and the ergonomics of the hardware definitely need improving. The selling point of the Switch is the hybrid nature, and they do not need to change a thing to this concept. Thanks to this concept, the Switch will become the no 1 selling console ever within the next 1-2 years.
@Coversnail interesting...does that mean instead of Nintendo Switch's 32GB and OLED's 64GB, the Next console will have 256GB that I can store the games on?
Also that RAM sounds really, really good. Is that too good to be true?
Is there any bad marketing/ reasons to avoid. For example reviews about new popular games running terribly. Switch has this increasingly (e.g. another Crab's Treasure) but Switch 2 presumably won't have this issue as much.
That might be true for a parent that hangs out on a Nintendo forum, but I don't think this is true for the majority of parents. Anecdotal, but my nieces & nephews all have Switches and I'm pretty sure none of their parents checked out any game reviews - especially with regard to performance - before buying them. Their main considerations were "Kids want a console, Switch is popular, portable, costs less than a PlayStation, and they have loads age appropriate games". Looking at sales figures for some technically poorly performing games tells me most people - even those that are buying the games - are not reading reviews for those games!
@BobLongRickTangle I haven't been here long myself but for someone who got here yesterday, you sure do make an entrance.
My two cents on the back and forth is that there will be a very small hook, something like magnetic joy cons (ignoring the potential plausibility) that Nintendo can advertise a little, and will give people something to recognize as a difference, but overall people can really be sold by things looking cool/pretty. Nintendo can sell people on the new console simply by making it apparent that what they have is old and dying. Slowly releasing less and less games as multiplats even over the first year, while they market their new console and its beautiful graphics or impressive load times, a large jump could be enough of a "hook".
Playstation and Xbox do so little new between consoles, and kids still want them. Combine the allure of something new, the strong quality of a Nintendo console's games, the brand familiarity of parents of Nintendo as a good company for kids, and I think selling kids and families on the new console will work well enough just based on power. (Though I still think a small hook to focus on will still pop up, and that can only help) The teenagers and adults will be able to see the huge gap in power, and will appreciate the bounty of AAA power that a new console brings.
I think Nintendo will have something small to think of as the console's "thing", but they will largely and could entirely survive and thrive on performance and power. (Translating to the public as really pretty visuals, big worlds, and fast load times; while most don't care about power, they can easily be hooked by what power brings)
Can I do a completionist run of video game history? (It's still being made so we'll see)
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