Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@MarioBrickLayer What can they do with the game if they release it midway through the year, it gets acclaimed as the best looking Switch title and generates more buzz for a console with around a year before a new console releases? (Buzz before going into one last Holiday hurrah!) It's the perfect swansong game I reckon. Aaaand if it under performs, then further along the Switch 2's lifecycle, they revisit the Metroid games for an upscaled collection or something. Nintendo have an amazing long game so it's hard to say. But if you are talking growth potential, you get it selling it to 140M+ people, not the 20 million early adopters. Nintendo don't want to squander the biggest instal base they have ever had in the home. Getting them to swap to Switch 2 is a next year problem lol.

@MarioBrickLayer I think that logic is very dangerous. While it’s possible Prime 4 could experience a BotW moment, if Nintendo were to be expecting 10 million sales for a game in a franchise whose best selling game is 3 million it would be because they were planning to go multiplatform like Sony and Microsoft have.

The better way to go about things would be to have much more tame expectations (say 1.5 million for example) and then if it does better then that’s wonderful.

To be fair both Pikmin 4 and Dread were nominated in (and won) GotY categories and they both sold 3 million and change. Basically they were both medium Nintendo franchises (around rank 20 in terms of sales, with Pikmin a little lower) which had amazing games on Switch and became a little more popular.

As for 1-2 Switch it was a game which showed off part of the Switch gimmicks and existed during a time when there were barely any games on Switch. I'm not saying it was a bad game, but it would have been significantly less popular in different circumstances (the sequel certainly was partially for that reason).

I do get your point though. It can be weird transitioning from this type of community to 'the outside world' and realizing how comparatively less known certain games are. Metroid is interesting because it's been around so long it is somewhat recognizable even if people haven't played the games or remember the name. In terms of recognizable Nintendo mascots we have (not complete):

tier 1 - Mario, Pikachu, Link. Massive name and visual recognition.

tier 2 - Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Kirby. Fairly high recognition.

tier 3. Samus. Some recognition at least visually.

This is also one of the reasons I think a metroid movie would be awesome.

@rallydefault
To be clear, I'm not talking about it being on Switch 2 and not Switch. I'm talking about it being a "Switch 2 enhanced" game that launches alongside Switch 2. I don't see how doing that would hurt its sales potential vs being a Switch only game. But it would give some decent momentum to Switch 2 vs it being a Switch game that happens to get an enhancement patch later, a Switch game that gets a Switch 2 version later or a Switch game that is playable on Switch 2 via backwards compatibility

Again, not saying it's as big a deal as a 3D Mario or a new Mario Kart would be. Or Pokemon, Donkey Kong, Zelda etc. But it'd certainly turn more heads than, say, Arms 2, Mario Party whatever number we're on now or Switch 2 Sports. Or at the very least turn the kinds of heads who would be unimpressed by some of those titles

Sounds like the Switch 2 itself was ready for last 2 years if this is correct?

This would mean what are they waiting for? Waiting so that current games like BatMan, Witcher 3 and BOTW don't get the upgraded graphics gameplay is ridiculous of a story-Sonic latest is a Prime example of a game that is best suited for Switch 2 performance. All the excuses they have up so isn't holding water nor anything to backup what was said why.

@skywake
Yea, I see what you're saying.

I'm coming from this place: I think a TON more people are still perfectly happy with their Switch, way more than we may think. I'm actually one of those people, and I'm not phased at all by the prospect of the Switch 2 not being until 2025. I just think Nintendo may want to avoid a messy double launch/availability thing with Prime 4 and just keep it simple - release it on their 140 million install base, no potentially confusing "enhanced"/"cross-gen" stuff getting flung around. Just put it out on the Switch, let millions of people buy it, and if Switch 2 is backwards compatible you can put it on all your sizzle reels and stuff for years to come. Prime 4 can easily become the best-selling Metroid title yet. Maybe some of us are concerned about limitations due to the hardware? Honestly I'm not worried about that - Nintendo's 1st-party stuff consistently works wonders. Prime 4 will be gorgeous and complex, even running on the Switch, I'm sure.

I was just looking, and the best I could find was that BotW on Wii U sold about 1.57 million copies, and the Wii U install base was about 13.5 million by the end. BotW is currently over 31 million sales total, so about 30 million on the Switch to an install base of 139 million. It took Nintendo about 9 months to sell 10 million Switches, so the install base for the Wii U version of the game was larger than the Switch's for probably about a year.

And I kind of lost my train of thought where I was going with all this... lol

@SwitchForce What are they waiting for? Games ya numpty lol. Or are you legit just wanting a console to hold? (That's weird!)

@SwitchForce Oh lord dont trust that guy... he is super unreliable and has horrible content.

Yeah, you can't have a games console without games. Nintendo not only need to put together a solid launch line-up but follow it up with a year of first-party releases that'll match what they did with the Switch in 2017, and that takes time. It'll be those games that make or break it too, not whatever they can manage with backwards compatibility on the existing library.

That the underlying silicon will be a couple of years old doesn't bother me. That was also the case with the Switch, and it didn't seem to do it any harm.

One thing for sure is that Nintendo absolutely aren't sitting on a pile of unsold Switches that they needed to wait two years to sell out. Rather, all three models of the Switch are still being manufactured and they're probably only a few months ahead of selling out because that's how just-in-time logistics works. For comparison, even with the miserable sales of the Wii U, it was still in production until November 2016, a mere four months before the Switch launched, because they're that well tuned to keeping up with the demand.

No one said trust him and that could be said of anyone posting and replying on here as well? This is what was mentioned. So unless Nvidia staff wants to out themselves - is the only other way to figure the source. What one thinks of Youtube poster and whom they like that is up to each to decide.

@rallydefault
It's a simple cost/benefit I think. The way I see it the benefit of releasing Metroid Prime 4 on Switch first is that it gives Nintendo something to push for the Switch before the Switch 2 release. The cost of doing that is that you give people the perception that it is an OG Switch title and also dilute any potential drive its initial release might have had on new hardware

Your example of BotW, I don't think that hurt sales of BotW overall. Even if Wii U wasn't in the state it was in I don't think it would have either. The people who were happy with the Wii U got it there. But others, myself included, saw it releasing on Switch as a reason to buy the Switch on day 1

If it had been a Wii U game for late 2016? Honestly I probably wouldn't have got the Switch on day 1. I would have got it for Wii U and then probably picked up the Switch later. But in either case I would have got the game once... just with it releasing simultaneously on Switch it was also a reason to buy a Switch

@SwitchForce Okay bud, I'm just saying that that guy doesn't choose reliable sources, he will choose any old joe to make a video on their leaks.
But if you want to trust him, thats okay.

@GalaxicGlobe Whom said they trust them? You clearly have something against Youtube SwitchForce and what he says or post what others said.

Far too many clickbait, clout chasers on YT. Can't take most of them seriously. They're as "well informed" as I am. Taking their personal experience in the hobby and giving their interpretation on current events. Channels such as Nin10doland, Nintendo Prime, SwitchForce, Aero, etc. Those that title their videos in a manner to induce clicks. It's a hustle.

What would you (we) call the opposite of intrepid journalism?

I've already pointed out that there's a fundamental flaw with his argument. Nintendo haven't, at any point, been sitting on two years stock of the Switch hardware. Rather, it's still being made and will be flying off the production line straight into stores. They are, at best, going to be no more than a few months ahead of orders.

If anything, they'll probably be keeping at least one model of the Switch in production after the Switch 2 launches because they'll want a cheap option for the low-end market and will almost certainly be unable to keep up with the initial demand for the new console.

@SwitchForce You sent one of his videos saying "if this is correct" Im telling you not to trust it and its probably incorrect.

@Magician Very true.

@SwitchForce
The truth is that if you have at least some understanding of how these things work it becomes very immediately obvious that a lot of these Nintendo Youtubers aren't worth your time. And yes, this is also true of people making posts on the internet more generally (although the quality of posts on forums like this does tend to be higher than those on social media and, I'd argue, most of these Nintendo Youtubers)

I just sat through the video you posted. Once the dude finally got to the point you realise that he's been caught up in a game of telephone. And worse, was unaware enough of how this stuff works, or aware enough of how clickbait works, to take a throwaway line of commentary and run with that rather than rather than the more mundane actual bit of information. The original source was this quote allegedly from an Nvidia employee:

I thought I'd let you know that as far as I am aware, there's nothing wrong with the Switch 2. In fact, the hardware and software has been done for a very long time, and the ball has been entirely in their court for years now regarding when they want to launch it. Remember, Nintendo isn't Sony - they aren't concerned about their performance falling behind the competition. They don't see further delays as something that will cause their hardware to become obsolete, they see delays as something that will cause their games to become more polished at launch

And if you watch the video the video you post is citing? The commentary after this says several things, mostly just quoting this line directly, but they added "and a way to sell through the existing Switch stock they have". Which when watching it I took as a throw away line and not particularly important. More a case of yes, Nintendo can comfortably delay while Switch continues to sell. Which isn't that controversial at all

Frankly, the NVidia quote itself isn't that surprising either. The SoC in the Switch was available in early 2015 but it took Nintendo until early 2017 to release it. And that was with the the slow motion car-crash that was the Wii U happening before our very eyes. The equivalent date for the Switch 2, as a best guess, would be somewhere around mid-2022. Which means at this point, right now, they're more-or-less at the same point in terms of hardware readyness as they were when the Switch was on shelves

So why wait another year to release? Well, because the Switch isn't the Wii U. They want to have a strong lineup of software for launch. As the original source of your video said, the longer they delay the more they can polish software for release. Now they can't keep that going indefinitely, by putting resources into Switch 2 games inevitably the Switch lineup suffers which will hurt sales there. Nintendo would want to get a return on their investment so a release will happen sooner rather than later. But the success of the Switch reduces the pressure to rush it out the door. And ultimately that's good for both us and Nintendo

The issue I have with your video is that they don't really talk about any of that at all. They focus entirely on the "Nintendo wants to clear Switch stock" throw away line. Glossing over the actual original quote entirely which was mostly talking about how Nintendo is mostly focused on getting the software ready for release. They even throw in a bit of hyperbole and say that Switch 2 has been ready for "several" years which is a tad misleading. But ignoring the click-bait sheen, if you stopped for a second and thought about what kind of company Nintendo is? This didn't need a video. Nintendo will wait for the software, they always will

Sony are a consumer electronics company, Sony's head is always hardware first. Microsoft is an enterprise software company, their head is always interested in accounts, payments, servers. Nintendo is a toy company, Nintendo makes games. That's the only reason they are manufacturing hardware at all. So the fact that Nintendo would sit on hardware that's ready to go because they believe their games aren't ready yet? That's just... what they do

Random tangent and speaking of random Nintendo Youtubers. Was just watching a video retrospective on the "NX" and what the speculation was like leading up to the Switch reveal. Kinda got me thinking about the similarities and differences between "NX" and "Switch 2" in the community

To recap, back in the NX speculation days the division amongst the community was about what specs the "NX" would have. With some speculating that it'd be PS4 killer home console with an AMD APU and the other camp being more of the view that it'd be a power efficient device based on a Tegra SoC. I was in the latter camp although.... my view was that we'd get a portable console first and then later get a more powerful (although not PS4 killer) home console also using a more capable Tegra SoC. I guess I was kinda right? -ish?

And it was like that because the knowns at the time were:

• Nintendo is releasing a console called NX in March 2017
• Nintendo intends on merging their home console and portable divisions

This time around? The division is different. Nobody is speculating about the hardware because firstly the Switch has been a success and generally nobody is expecting them to abandon that model. At least nobody who is being taken seriously. Secondly the SoC was leaked and while we don't know how they'll clock it or what other components they'll pair it with we do know it's a mobile part. So there really isn't that much disagreement about the thing that was the central disagreement before the Switch launched

Instead all we can disagree on is the timing. Basically one camp generally believes that the Switch is fine as it is, is selling well, no reason for new hardware and any speculation is just buying into dodgy rumours. And then there's the other camp who is sitting here thinking.....

One thing I will say is, I bloody love how Nintendo will delay something if they aren't ready or it's not good enough. So while most of the internet is doom mongering, think what the alternative would be.