Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

I think Prime 4 will depend on Prime 2 and 3. If they do something like Prime 2+3 shadow dropped in an April Direct then Prime 4 is likely Fall/Holiday 2024.

A typical Switch year consists of 3 1st party IP games in January - March, 3 in April - June, 2 in July - September and 4 in October - December. January - March is all sorted (Another Code, Mario vs. DK, Princess Peach Showtime), as for the rest of the year there’s:

• May - Endless Ocean Luminous
• Summer - Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD
• 2024 - TTYD

That’s 3/9 and so there’s 6 unannounced games to go (5 if Prime 4 ends up being 2024). Taking this into account and other stuff going on like the Super Nintendo World expansion, it feels like we’d get:

• Prime 2+3 HD
• Prime 4
• Something DK (Mario movie was followed by SMB Wonder so DK expansion probably means DK game this year)
• Something Zelda (TotK is out of the spotlight now so I think they’ll release something like WWHD/TPHD double pack)
• Something multiplayer (MK8 Deluxe support is over, Smash Ultimate only has 1 spirit event left, if you go by the August 2022 announcement of 2 years of support Sizzle Season 2024 is the last Splatoon 3 season so I feel something multiplayer will happen during Fall/Holiday 2024)
• Something RPG (could be a surprise later than usual announcement of Pokemon remakes or something else)

@Grumblevolcano I've read in a few places that Nintendo have been sat on a Fire Emblem game for a while, so that could be one of the 9. They could release Metroid Prime 2 and 3 separately, which gives you six. Would they do another Mario Party?

I wonder if they see Donkey Kong in a similar way to Metroid, they are both franchises with huge potential to grow. DK is getting an area in the theme park, would it be a big surprise if they is a standalone DK movie? I wouldn't be surprised. If they think it's justified (first 3D DK in decades?) would they save it for Switch 2?

Here's a question - does the category 'people who want Metroid Prime 4' and 'people who aren't huge Nintendo fans who will get Switch 2 fairly early no matter what' have any overlap? Fundamentally, outside of the million people who bought Metroid Prime remastered and Nintendo afficiandos, very few people know Metroid Prime 4 is a thing. I know there are people out there who really like 'gritty FPS games with good graphics' but would those people really hop on the Switch 2 bandwagon purely because of Metroid Prime 4?

MP4 could definitely be a good graphical show case, but would it be one that actually sold consoles? This is not arguing the logic of having it as an early Switch 2 game, I'm just actually curious. I ask this as someone who loves Nintendo and loves the series Metroid, but is very unlikely to buy MP4 because I don't play first person games.

I could definitely see more people buying MP4 than usual for the series simply because it was one of the few Switch-exclusives early on but that is the opposite direction — would Switch 2 sell MP4.

I get what you guys are saying, but I just really think Prime 4 is a great candidate for being Swich 1’s holiday game.

Yea, it could be a nice stone in the pathway of initial Switch 2 titles, but I think it would stand a much better chance of selling well with the Switch 1’s install base. If it’s Switch 1 only, it can easily become the best-selling Metroid game so far, but if it’s Switch 2… nope, and Metroid games don’t traditionally continue to sell like a Mario game. Nintendo wants to sell hardware, yea, but not at the cost of software sales, if that makes sense.

And honestly, I’ll take this to the end: I do think Switch took off because of BotW. Without it, and I truly think the Switch would not be where it is now. Mario Kart Deluxe and Odyssey were great, but as we saw with the Wii U, if you don’t have a killer app out of the gate, it doesn’t matter how good your games are that are coming out a few months later.

@rallydefault NG Switch will launch with Mario Kart 8 Deluxier Deluxe and everything will be right as rain.

@FishyS I think Prime 4 would have to be Breath of the Wild level good for it too be a system seller and even then i'm not sure.

Imagine the hardware is as good or better than we hope, imagine Madden, FIFA and COD are all on there and they look fantastic, could some players who mainly play those games be interested in the Switch 2 for the ability to play hand-held and then think, oh, I'll check out Metroid Prime 4 as well? Maybe?

I think you could have switch BOTW and Odyssey around (Launch release vs Holiday release) and the Switch would have done as well.

But I 100% agree with your point, great games sell systems.

@MarioBrickLayer
Yea, and I can agree that if it were Odyssey instead of BotW it would have achieved the same success for itself and the console.

@MarioBrickLayer Absolutely, and I feel like the success of games like Elden Ring, CyberPunk, Baldurs Gate really demonstrate how much of an existing market there is for a 'more mature audience' and Metroid Prime 4 could really be the pull-point to capture that demographic.

I agree on the cross-gen title stance also. By having PS5 titles share DNA with previous-gen, this is a real hold back for devs to be able to fully embrace the new tech etc.

I got a SteamDeck whilst waiting on Switch 2, and the deck gets me really excited for what Nintendo will be able to pull out the bag.

I gotta ask, was that DK rumor genuinely ever creditable? I have no clue who the sourcing on that was and like, let’s be real a new DK game is gonna come out EVENTUALLY. I just have no recollection of the validity of that specific rumor

Oh and my take on Prime 4: if it’s a launch title for Switch 2 it will not be the only first party release at launch. I believe in Prime 4’s chances to make waves when it launches, but at the end of the day, Metroid is a series that has yet to break into the kind of guaranteed sales numbers a Mario or Zelda has. Even if Prime 4 was the best game ever made, I don’t think Nintendo is going to risk a launch without one of their biggest sellers. They are very clearly anxious about this system launch, they’ve said so themselves several times. They don’t want a Wii U repeat, and so I believe they will not launch without the strongest games possible to move systems. Prime 4 is one of their biggest titles in development for sure, but it isn’t Mario, however unfair to the Metroid series that may be.

@NarwhalKing Last time I checked they neither have a Metroid World theme park nor a planned Metroid movie...it's a Switch game for sure.

@GrailUK it is a shame Metriod has not achieved the same status of IP as Mario to some extent. The games are critically speaking legendary, lead to headlining an entire genre that still sees new releases to this day, and Samus is not just one of the most iconic women in gaming, but characters in gaming as well. I empathize with Metriod fans who would like to see it headlining the next console’s release.

@NarwhalKing They aren't as immediately accessib;e for the mainstream. But definately worthwhile investing in the franchise for the more adventurous gamer. It's part of their ecclectic charm.

@MarioBrickLayer DK would just get overshadowed by 3D Mario if it was a Switch 2 game and I don’t see 3D Mario not being a launch title so it makes more sense to release DK as a Switch 1 only game.

It is kind of amazing when, as a gamer, you feel like Metroid is a huge thing and EVERYONE knows it.

But then you check out the series' sales numbers and you're like... oh. That's so weird lol

I mean, Pikmin 4 has sold more than Dread, the highest-selling Metroid of all time. And wait for it... 1-2 Switch has sold more than Dread!

It's bonkers. So yea, as much as WE may enjoy Metroid, if I were Nintendo, I certainly wouldn't be putting my eggs in the Prime 4 basket. At the end of the day, if it's a series that doesn't sell well in Japan, it'll never hit the highest numbers.

@Grumblevolcano I agree, if DK was a launch title then it would be completely overshadowed by Mario, but what if it was one of their big games for 2026? or it's the 2025 Holiday game (think 2017 Zelda + Mario) and Mario Kart is 2026?

if DK is a real thing and it's a 2D game, I think you're right and it will be Switch 1, if it's a relaunch of 3D then I'd bet on it being Switch 2.

@rallydefault you make some good points, but I if I'm Nintendo, I'm looking at Metroid (and Donkey Kong) and thinking there is huge growth potential. If they can make a game that clicks with the fans then why can't it go beyond 10m units sold? If it does then why not do a movie and have something in the theme park too?

Nintendo seem to have really improved their marketing team, so what could they do with Metroid Prime 4 if it's one of the best looking Nintendo games ever made and hopefully is fantastic to play too?

@MarioBrickLayer
Yea, agreed, so here's what I would do - launch it on the Switch 1 this holiday as the big game to reach the 130+ million Switch owners. Give it the most opportunity you can to hit as many people as possible.

And then, if the Switch 2 really is backwards compatible - boom, there ya go. No issues playing it on the Switch 2 if you want, and maybe even with some standard sprucing like higher fps or better resolution, if that's what the Switch 2's backwards compatibility will allow.

@rallydefault Maybe that's the way to go, I'm not sure, but sometimes games get lost towards the end of a console life cycle. Maybe with backwards compatibility that won't happen, but with the Switch 2, there's an opportunity for them to say "Look! Look how great our new console is, we can do this...." and then show an epic trailer of Metroid Prime 4 with DLSS and Ray Tracing and great game play etc.