Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@Keman
A couple of things. Firstly, "Switch Pro" hasn't "been a thing" since 2018. That's just something that people such as yourself like to say in order to peddle this narrative. We did get talk about a hardware revision in 2019 but we also got a hardware revision in 2019. All Switch consoles made after 2019 use a more power efficient SoC. Nintendo used that additional headroom to improve battery life and make the Switch Lite. They could have, and I still believe should have, used some of that headroom to allow higher clocks to make some games run better. They didn't. 2021 is when the "Switch Pro" rumours actually started, when this thread was created, but a lot of that ended up being the OLED

The comparison to the Wii U? Well. The Wii U was on the market less than 2 and a half years before they announced they were working on new hardware. It would be the equivalent of Nintendo firing the starting gun for us on Switch 2 in July 2019. And no, people weren't just immediately satisfied with the Wii U hardware. There was plenty of speculation and gripes about the Wii U even before Nintendo mentioned NX. Stuff like when were Nintendo going to sell the GamePad separately but, because it was the Wii U, most of the speculation was about software. Mostly where is the software.

I should know, I was the definition of the Wii U apologist during that period. If you scroll through the early pages of the Switch thread (NX then) you'll probably find me trying to argue that "Wii U Zelda" won't be ported to NX. I was more than satisfied with the Switch hardware. But as soon as that Switch trailer dropped? Moved on. Switch is better in every way

We're coming up on the 7th anniversary of launch. The graph above shows what that looks like in context. The Switch is already the second most long lived console Nintendo has ever had using US dates. It's third just barely if you include the Famicom, by mid this year it will surpass it.

Really, the only hardware that makes this look "early" is the Gameboy. And a lot of that was because Nintendo had been putting their efforts into the Virtual Boy, which failed, and the GBA took longer than they expected. The GBC in the end was rushed out the door in a panic because Gunpei Yokoi left to join Bandai and was planning on releasing the WonderSwan. Complete chaos, not a cycle to emulate, it only looks good in hindsight because Pokemon happened

With the Pro rumours around 2021? Well, OLED came later than DSi and New 3DS. So if the Pro had happened when people were speculating it would it would have still been relatively late for a hardware refresh of that scale. But yeah, the Wii U comparison is nonsense. Imagine if Nintendo hadn't said anything about what they were doing about the successor these consoles until these dates:

NES: 9/1992
GB: 6/1996
SNES: 7/1998
N64: 8/2003
GBC: 10/2005
GBA: 2/2008
GC: 8/2008
DS: 10/2011
Wii: 10/2013
3DS: 1/2018
Wii U: 10/2019

That's where we're sitting right now. I mean, imagine a world where Nintendo hadn't said anything about the Wii U successor until late 2019, or had nothing to say in response to the PS2 until 2003. Or if the GBC had been their only publicly stated plans for portable consoles until late 2005. Insanity. That's where we are right now with the Switch

In 5 years time, Switch isn't going to be the only handheld console on the market. I reckon both Sony and Microsoft will have their versions. Nintendo has already alluded to this a couple of years ago (though everyone seems to think the new wave of handheld pcs is what they were referring to lol.) Now without entering another tech race around AI, Nintendo are going to make sure they have enough software support. So if that just means a delay of a couple of months, then so be it.

And I knew I should have kept my mouth closed about software lining up. I feel like I have jinxed the release date hahaha. I'll keep my mouth closed in future!

@GrailUK I don’t know if Sony will have a proper dedicated handheld when they have the Portal. Can see that being the basis of future handhelds for them. Not sure what direction Microsoft would take. Can see them choosing either the dedicated hardware or streaming device. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see how Nintendo holds their ground in a market they’ve always dominated.

@skywake Famicom is also not really comparable to Switch - the Famicom Disc System was an upgrade in various ways and other other upgrades were effectively integrated into the carts themselves. I guess this was only economic because the cost of components fell dramatically through the 80's in a way that we can't really appreciated today. We're in a different world.

@GrailUK This is definitely a consideration for Nintendo though I think that - even more so than home consoles - handhelds are driven by software. Much of the software that sells and is played on handhelds is largely incompatible with the type of involved narrative or competitive multiplayer driven AAA software that Sony and Microsoft have prioritised. You ideally build games specifically around the idea that they have a satisfying loop that can be played for 5 or 10 minutes at a time. You also end up targeting a different audience (including a younger one).

Breaking into the handheld market isn't just about putting out an incredible piece of hardware and having the latest AAA home console releases playable on it.

@StuTwo
Yeah, the same was true for the SNES and to a degree the GameBoy. The storage limitations at launch as well as the co-processors they were throwing in cartridges by the end meant a lot of later games were effectively running on different hardware. Not to mention the tricks and techniques that evolved over the life of those consoles. None of this is true for the Switch

But yeah, in terms of platform longevity the Switch already sits on the top of the pile. The only platforms that rival it are from an entirely different era. So the implication from @Keman that we're somehow ungrateful or unnecessarily clamoring for new hardware and especially compare it to how "satisfied" we apparently were to the Wii U of all things..... it's a bit of a wild take

I'm back and forth on this new rumor of the Switch 2 delay.

Ultimately, I guess it's good if it's true.

I've calmed down a lot from my younger days (was looking at some of my 2015 comments in the Switch thread when we were still predicting the hardware - lol). (Also - I've been around here for 10 years? Geez. What is wrong with us lol) I can accept that having a strong 1st-party software lineup for the first year is paramount to Nintendo, a video game company still doing it the old-school way by leaning on the quality of their exclusives.

If the Switch 2 really is "just" a souped-up Switch and not introducing any other dynamic to the hardware, then the launch calendar needs to be compelling. Ultra compelling. Or honestly, most people won't move to the new hardware and just stick with the original. I'm one who believes a big, big, big chunk of the Switch install base is casual gamers very similar to the Wii bubble. And that fear of those casual gamers not moving to the new hardware becomes even more pronounced if Nintendo isn't careful how much software they make "cross-gen" or whatever lots of you guys think they're gonna do now that we have NSO and a unified account system. If I'm granny Matilda and only bought a Switch to play Animal Crossing with my nephew during the pandemic, and I hear about a Switch 2 coming out but the next Animal Crossing will still be playable on the one I have now... well, why the heck would I buy a Switch 2? So, I'm still unabashedly someone who thinks hardware makers need to just move on when they introduce new hardware. Let the old system and its games be immortalized and eventually become retro and collectible - make me buy the new hardware to play all the new games. But I know that's not a popular stance, but it's one I've held my entire life.

Anyways, if we do have another year, I'm actually kind of happy. I'm deep into completing my physical collection and revisiting a lot of the early games that were so much fun on this system (just got a non-crazy priced Yooka Laylee from eBay). Seriously, this puppy has been my favorite system of all time. I think it's surpassed the SNES for me due to NSO giving me a lot of those games anyway and just realizing nostalgia and being a kid were pushing the needle a bit lol

A presumably expanded version of Shin Megami Tensei V (dubbed SMTV: Vengeance) just got rated in Korea. Perhaps it'll be announced at the assumed Partner Showcase?

@rallydefault Time passes faster than we'd all like!

I'm not sure the Switch user base is as casual as you're assuming. I think the console (like all of them) has picked up sales to a more casual audience over time but I don't think it's the core for Switch. The early sales were very strong and all built on the back of games like Zelda, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey. Those are not the games bringing in the casual crowd.

What is definitely true though is that there is competition from Valve and others with handheld PC's that didn't exist for most of the Switch life-cycle. It definitely needs compelling software - "hey isn't it amazing you can play a graphically intense 3d game on the train without it being a FTP microtransaction ridden piece of garbage on your phone" isn't good enough to get people to immediately hand over £300 like it was 2017.

@StuTwo

I mean, only Nintendo's core audience bought the Wii U. That sold what...11m lifetime.

Casual Nintendo fans bought the Wii and the Switch.

@Magician Most of Nintendo's core didn't buy Wii U, which sold 13.56 million. They stuck with the 3DS at best.

The Wii and Switch audiences are not the same. The Wii was a blue ocean product that specifically targeted non-gamers that never touched a video game in their lives. The Switch, while incredibly mainstream, is very much a red ocean product in comparison. You don't continously break software records for core franchises the way the Switch has by appealing to Wii non-gamer casuals.

@Magician I'm with @IceClimbers - the Wii U numbers are the core of the core. Basically if you own a Wii U - you are one of the people who decided that it was worth buying a DOA console for Pikmin 3 and a HD re-release of Wind Waker then you're not only in the "club", you're in the inner sanctum.

Switch has sold to people who go out and buy very much "core" games - just about every major Nintendo franchise has its record owning installment on Switch. It has also amassed a decent number of people who bought it for - say - Ring Fit Adventure but they've never been the main marketing focus.

Anecdotal as hell but thinking about people I know who have a Switch and where I also know what consoles they had before:

Person 1: GBA, PS2, DS, Wii, 360, 3DS, PS4, Switch, PS5
Person 2: GB, DS, 3DS, Switch
Person 3: ???, PSP, 3DS, Vita, Switch
Person 4: PS2, Wii, Switch

There are others but my gaps in my knowledge of what they previously owned is pretty deep. I only know of one person personally, other than myself, who got a Wii U. They also had a DS before I knew what the DS was and I believe buy every console Nintendo makes

So yeah, I'm not sure I'd describe Switch as having a casual audience. Those people are certainly there but it's not the core I don't think. From what I can gather Switch attracts the "portable gamer" audience. An audience that ever since the iPhone people have been trying to argue was dead

I am not hopeful for this year in the slightest after the past week and a half of news, and now a Partner Showcase being are first major Nintendo presentation in 2024. I get Nintendo probably has more games they’ve sat on like Prime Remastered, but it can’t be as many as they’d need to fill in the blanks for what is likely now a pretty barren schedule. The rumors were saying the hardware was delayed because of software needing more time to develop, so I wouldn’t expect planned Switch 2 titles to suddenly become cross generations titles released early. So really I’m not hopeful for Nintendo to release more than some remasters, and a Pokemon game. Fine for buisness problem but majorly disappointing for myself and I’m assuming other fans.

@NarwhalKing Remember last year reports said Nintendo would have no major releases after Zelda and then they announced Mario Wonder, Mario RPG and Thousand Year Door.

Basically everyone I know who games is extremely casual; many of them had Wiis and many have Switches, but as far as I know none had Wii Us and very few had 3DS. Note that none of them were early adopters of Switch. To some degree this is just age, with them playing Wiis when they were younger then getting back into gaming with Switch when they had appropriately-aged children

Less anecdotally, surveys generally show Switch players are about 50/50 'mostly portable' versus 'mostly docked'. If I recall, it was more skewed towards portable in the early days Also, for whatever it's worth, demographics of Switch owners seem to have shifted over time to be more spread out in both age and gender.

If I were to guess, a core of the early adopters were portable gaming afficinados but over time they have become a much smaller percentage of Switch owners and more are now 'casual' gamers, choosing either portable or docked as it suits them (or as makes most sense for their family/household situation).

I don’t know. It would be weird to be a “core” gamer and ONLY own a Switch, for sure, but that’s pretty much an impossible statistic to find.

I would just bet that many, MANY switches are family consoles or consoles for kids or consoles for portable gamers, all of whom tend to be more “casual.” I’m not sure if this group would be over 50%, but I find it interesting to ponder, and I’m sure Nintendo does when planning how they’re gonna get those people to a Switch 2.

@rallydefault He may be an outlier, but my Son (21) had a WiiU and was a pretty early adopter of Switch and doesn't own any other consoles (he does have a a 2DSXL as well though). Around 1600hours on Smash and a few hundred hours each on another dozen or so games says he's not ''casual''.

I guess it's difficult to define exactly what a 'casual' gamer is - is it the games they play, how much time they spend playing, something else?

There are cases where it's pretty obvious - like my Brothers' family who do have a Switch (and did have a Wii and even a rarely used WiiU I think) but only have a few games (MK8, Splatoon, FIFA etc) and don't play very often. I'd say they were definitely casual.

@dmcc0
Anecdotally we can prove anything. I consider myself a pretty “core” gamer, but I only do Switch and PC.

“Casual” is just another box term we invent to help categorize. It’s the Wii Fit people, the Animal Crossing grandmas, and even the “one game a year” type of person. I remember looking at Wii software attach rate data that showed tons of Wii owners only bought Wii Sports (or was that a pack-in game?) for the lifetime of owning the system.

I wonder what the attach rate is for the Switch?

@rallydefault I'm sure I read somewhere that the Switch attach rate was pretty low - just over 7 I think (the Wii was around 9). Like the Wii, there are possibly quite a few people that bought a Switch just to play Animal Crossing, or Mario Kart, Pokémon etc. I guess there are quite a few folk that have multiple switches too - upgraded to the OLED from the original, bought a lite for travelling, multiples for the kids etc. so would naturally have a lower attach rate than a 'home' console where there usually aren't multiple consoles in the same household. I think that Switch attach rate also didn't include digital, so assuming physical to digital sales are approx 50/50 the actual attach rate is possibly as high as 14 or 15.