Nintendo slipped 5% in Tokyo after Nomura Securities said the mysterious new console NX, to be unveiled this June, will cannibalize the existing sales of 3DS and Wii U.
According to analyst Junko Yamamura, Nintendo will make NX available by 2016 year-end’s shopping season. Nomura expects Nintendo to announce the “concept” sometime between March and May, unveil the actual console in June, and launch it between October and November. “We think the NX will start to boost operating profits in 18/3, when it will have been on the market for a full year and will have a line-up of software titles, which carry high operating margins.”
Who knows if it's reliable or not as it seems to be a prediction based on lowered expectations for the current hardware. It almost seems like a foregone conclusion it will release this year though. wonder what Wii U software support will be like at the end of the year.
Before anyone speculates: This isn't a rumor or anything. This is literally just an analyst prediction. It's like if Patcher over here said the same thing.
We had previously thought that the NX launch would have only a limited impact on 3DS and Wii U sales as it is not being positioned as a successor to either console, but we have now altered our view because 3DS sales have been weakening a little recently, particularly in terms of software, as the machine enters its sixth year, and to factor in a harsher competitive climate and what happened to other existing consoles when new machines were launched in the past.
Mocking rant: confirmation NX is a handheld! Rant Rant! 3DS is specifically mentioned as having dwindling sales. Rant Rant.
Yeah I'm not going to read much into this. I'll wait for the horse's mouth.
My guess would be that like us the analyst doesn't know so they're just hedging their bets. I think it's also fair to say that whatever it is it'll have an impact on both of Nintendo's platforms. Think about it, as a consumer you have only a limited amount of money you want to spend every year. I mean as Nintendo fans we're split between platforms as it is, that's something which is even more pronounced when there's a new piece of hardware.
The NX in 2016 camp has been saying this for almost a year now
The "we don't know anything yet" have been saying "we don't know anything yet" for just as long. Interestingly we still don't know anything yet. Come on guys, it's 2016 now. It's only going to be a few short months until we have a fair idea. THEN the people who had specific predictions can start gloating
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This isn't a rumor, that's just some analysr's prediction. Does it sound believable, though? Yes. But I've always been in the boat "NX in 2016" anyways so ...
The NX in 2016 camp has been saying this for almost a year now
The "we don't know anything yet" have been saying "we don't know anything yet" for just as long. Interestingly we still don't know anything yet. Come on guys, it's 2016 now. It's only going to be a few short months until we have a fair idea. THEN the people who had specific predictions can start gloating
That's my point. With this latest 'headline' still nothing new is being said or shown.
Predictions of that sort won't matter to people once the reveal and announcement has been made. The 'Nintendoomed' discussions will start up by that point and we'll all be talking about who or who isn't going to be buying the latest from Nintendo
What makes everyone think that the NX will be revealed and released this year? Nintendo clearly stated that they won't release the next system until they satisfy the ones who have owned the current systems. And right now, Nintendo has to announce upcoming games for the Wii U.
And the lifespan for the Wii U isn't that long even....its just three years old, you think its a great move for Nintendo to just give it up all of a sudden? Name me one console except the virtual boy that only lasted for three years? GBA doesn't count because it was still being supported and the same goes for the Gamecube.
Really? Are you guys trying to say that the ones who just bought the Wii U or have it should be left out all of a sudden? This is just impractical!
@Socar: The upcoming Wii U games are already known. There may be one or two that we don't know about, but that's it. By the time NX launches in October/November, the 3DS will be 5.5 years old and the Wii U will be roughly 4 years old. That's plenty long. Both systems need replaced ASAP - the Wii U failed and the 3DS's natural lifespan is over.
What makes everyone think that the NX will be revealed and released this year? Nintendo clearly stated that they won't release the next system until they satisfy the ones who have owned the current systems. And right now, Nintendo has to announce upcoming games for the Wii U.
And the lifespan for the Wii U isn't that long even....its just three years old, you think its a great move for Nintendo to just give it up all of a sudden? Name me one console except the virtual boy that only lasted for three years? GBA doesn't count because it was still being supported and the same goes for the Gamecube.
Really? Are you guys trying to say that the ones who just bought the Wii U or have it should be left out all of a sudden? This is just impractical!
There is no way they will satisfy anyone, considering how bad and underdeveloped or downright sloppy some of the Nintendo releases were this year, like Mario Party 10, dreadful Mario Tenis or Animal Crossing. Also, what is announced for this year? Way too late lazy Zelda port, Zelda U about which we know practically nothing and some indies that will be cheaper on other consoles. 2015 for Nintendo was horrendous, so end of 2016/beginning of 2017 to release new console looks like good idea, although if released in the end of 2016 it will get slammed hard by PS4.
Also, if end of 2016, then that would be 4 years, not 3.
Microsoft dumped their console after 3 years and they benefited from it significally, so it is possible for Nintendo to follow that route, especially when they are confident with this console.
@IceClimbers: While the 3DS library isn't as lenghty as the DS, I'm still satisfied with the library that it has because it has more than the Wii U and I do have lots of games that I want from it......the latter on the other hand is struggling worse than the Gamecube.
For the sake of the argument, let's say that the NX is revealed and released this year......then what? Obviously, the install base for the NX will be small at first, and Nintendo has to come up with a way to bring the Wii U owners to the NX.....how do you suppose they will do that? If they take the Microsoft route and let users trade the Wii U for the NX, then fine but I still don't see how it motivates those users to get the NX. You think its easy to take the SEGA route and just release console after console? That's the whole reason why SEGA went third party because they kept releasing console after console despite them supporting each console (that is something that I think I can praise SEGA for....atleast they supported each system they made)
observe the GBA. It lasted a bit longer and yeah, most of them were licensed games that caused it to last long, but still, the support is there so is the Gamecube. Nintendo can't do something like the N64 and then the Gamecube at this point. They really need to satisfy the ones who bought their systems.
@Dave24: 2015 wasn't the best year for gaming honestly with the exception of Shenmue 3 reveal. You can pretty much say that the games released last year from every third party were horrendous as well. What games did SEGA release last year? Battlefront a terrible money grab game ended up selling well and SE can't even do a proper port of Final Fantasy 6......not bad enough for you?
Also, the games are spin-offs.....can you expect them to do well? Mario Party wasn't a strong franchise to begin with and so is Tennis. Last year was more of spin off experimentation. Some like it and some don't.
@Socar: well, there was still money thrown to develop those, so they expect the money back. SEGA didn't release that much except really bad Total War and awesome Yakuza, and the next year we will have Total War: Warhammer, which could end up as best game in Total War series if they will try to release it in playable state, unlike Atilla. It can bring them new audience thanks to all the people who want Dawn of War games to be back. Also, port of Valkiria Chronicles proved to be success and now they are working on new entry.
What makes everyone think that the NX will be revealed and released this year? Nintendo clearly stated that they won't release the next system until they satisfy the ones who have owned the current systems. And right now, Nintendo has to announce upcoming games for the Wii U.
Nintendo also said that they're going to talk about the NX this year. So it's fair to assume that they'll announce what the NX is this year, whatever it is. Making such an announcement is going to slow momentum for whatever it's replacing. And it's all good and well to say that it "won't replace" anything.... but it will, and people will act as if it is.
The upcoming Wii U games are already known. There may be one or two that we don't know about, but that's it. By the time NX launches in October/November, the 3DS will be 5.5 years old and the Wii U will be roughly 4 years old. That's plenty long. Both systems need replaced ASAP - the Wii U failed and the 3DS's natural lifespan is over.
Nintendo has had a pretty solid strategy of not announcing games early for a while now. Games are usually announced at the E3 before release. Splatoon being one of the biggest examples, announced at E3 2014 and launched before E3 2015. Twilight Princess HD and Majora's Mask 3D got even tighter windows. What you're saying about 2016 could have easily been said about 2015.
I'd also add a personal opinion into the mix. A poor hardware install base? They can't resolve that with a new piece of hardware. As has been said somewhere else, new hardware starts at 0. It's a gamble. The only thing new hardware can guarantee is better hardware. I'd argue that's something the portable needs far more urgently.
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
An opinion is only respectable if it can be defended. Respect people, not opinions
I've personally been in the unification camp from day one, as most of you know, as well as considering it to be agnostic in terms of hardware. I think we'll have multiple form factors of whatever nx is and have new ones release almost yearly.
It may or may not have something to do with the console space but I think definitely the portable space. That is by far the most likely scenario, when you look at it from a market perspective. The analyst is speculating just like us though. At this point, what we can verify is... that it's codenamed nx. That's about it :S
Didn't we have one of those charts comparing sales peaks and hardware cycles on the forum somewhere?
@IceClimbers: We don't know all the upcoming games yet. The Jan/Feb Direct usually reveals a game or two, and let's not forget about E3. Remember that even games like Super Mario 3D World, the biggest title of 2013, was announced during E3 in the same year. Add another two/three Wii U games and we're looking at a line-up that's arguably better than last year.
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Topic: Nomura Securities: NX will be unveiled in June and released October-November
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