Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Oh, no wonder nothing happened this week. Apple had an event on Wednesday:

So while I still think it's unlikely for next week, it seems we can't completely dismiss the possibility of another "Switch 2 reveal on DKC Returns HD release day" moment.

@Grumblevolcano Honestly it's hard to keep track of Apple events (not that I really care to anyways), so this could be a reason to avoid this week.

According to rumours, we're still getting a Direct this month. I don't exactly believe it, and I could totally see some of them backing out claiming they mixed it up with the Pokemon Presents. Nintendo will likely still want to fill this year's gaps for Switch games, so a Direct still makes sense, even though we only have about 1 week left for February. You'd think if anything, Nintendo would want the Direct earlier to stay clear from Pokemon Presents, April Switch 2 Direct, and potentially Mar10 Day.

@Grumblevolcano @PikminMarioKirby We definitely aren't getting a Nintendo direct next week. Nintendo drowning out the release of a port of a 3DS game that was already a port of a Wii game is different from Nintendo drowning out a presentation hosted by one of their biggest partners. I don't see them running a Nintendo direct the same week that Gamefreak is running a Pokemon Presents. They'll either do a Direct the week after, or would've already had one earlier this month if we were getting one at all. Nintendo and Gamefreak generally coordinate with one another when it comes to events in order to prevent one from overshadowing the other. Especially in this stage of the Switch's life, where a Pokemon announcement is going to end up overshadowing any ports or low-effort remasters Nintendo pumps out to keep the Switch alive.

People gave up on the switch two reveal despite it being leaked and look what happened, I would not rule out a February direct yet

The lack of Direct or announcements is making me worried about Metroid Prime 2/3 remaster that was heavily rumored. I was really hoping to play them on the Switch before the fourth game comes out.

There's no chance of a Direct this month. They'll let the Pokémon Presents have its say, drop a few more trailers for Xenoblade X on socials, maybe announce a game through socials, and that will be it until the Switch 2 April Direct. Unless they surprise us with a Direct in March.

To be fair, most people (at least according to polls on famiboards if I recall) still thought the reveal would be January, they were just very skeptical of it dropping on the leaked day of donkey kong release. I think similarly now, people are skeptical of a direct the week of Pokemon Presents but I see zero reason there couldn't be a direct in early March. Also I think a partner showcase (which the current leak might be) could be basically anytime including next week.

@PikminMarioKirby @VoidofLight I'm leaning towards like 90% no, 10% yes regarding next week. It makes a lot more sense to do a Direct in early March when compared to next week however not having Prime 2+3 in February makes timing Prime 4 in such a way that it doesn't get overshadowed by 3D Mario more complicated.

February - Prime 2+3
May/June - Prime 4
September - 3D Mario

If 3D Mario is a rigid September release because of the anniversary and Prime 2+3 isn't February, you get something like:
May - Prime 2+3
August - Prime 4
September - 3D Mario

Which is pretty much sending Prime 4 out to die.

@Grumblevolcano Prime 2+3 could technically be one month before Prime 4 like Pikmin 1+2 was for Pikmin 4. Here's my prediction:

• May/June: Prime 2+3
• July: Metroid Prime 4
• October: 3D Mario

This would give a good amount of time between the two games. 3D Mario being in September for the anniversary could definitely be true, but recently they've been doing October for their mainline games and lines up to be a great holiday title.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 2+3 isn't going to be released. Nintendo is just going to release 4 without it.

Given that this Thursday is Pokemon Day, I'm going to give my thoughts on what they'll show off.

I feel like Pokemon Legends Z-A is probably the most likely to be here. Especially given it's set to release this year. We know that two Mega Evolution themed sets are releasing in Japan within the general time-frame of the summer- so that'll probably be when the game releases.

On top of this, I feel like Legends Z-A will be set in either Future or Present day Lumiose. It won't be in the past, given that the trailer we got shows off people with modern fashion and Lumiose in a state that doesn't exist by the time of X and Y. Many people think it'll be otherwise due to the focus on "Urban Redevelopment," and how that period of time happened closer to when Pokemon Legends Arceus took place- but I don't personally think that means anything. Especially given that Urban Redevelopment can happen at any time.

I also will go out on a limb and say that Gen 10 of Pokemon is going to be revealed at the end of the Presents. There won't be any concrete information as for Gamefreak to not overshadow Z-A, but there will be an announcement of titles and a tease for what people can expect. The full reveal will probably be after Z-A's release, and the launch will happen November of this year for the Switch 2. The reason why I believe this is mainly due to how the TCG itself is lining up. From what I've heard, Pokemon cards stop being tournament legal three years after the set launches. This would apparently put most of the early Scarlet and Violet cards out of use within the tournaments. People I've seen talk about this think that there's a chance that the Z-A sets could act as a "pseudo-generation" for the sake of Competitive play, but given we only have the titles of two sets (which will be one in western releases), then that means unless they trademark more down the road, Z-A only gets the single set.

On top of this, Z-A being slated for a summer release due to the TCG parity means that November is wide open. While it could mean nothing, it just feels weird for them to leave that slot wide open without a game to maximize profits. You'd think they would take the opportunity to put Z-A in the November slot if that was the only game that Gamefreak were releasing this year. Sure- it could probably be the Switch 2's release month, hence why Gamefreak is taking the Summer.. but on the chance that it isn't, then it makes no sense why they wouldn't take that month.

Given what we know about Generation 10 of Pokemon through the Teraleak, it seems like Gamefreak is steady into that game's development. There's references to it being on Switch 1 originally, before (potentially) moving development over to Switch 2. Due to this, there might be a chance we'll see it this year as the big Switch 2 RPG. It would break a few patterns for Gamefreak, given that they never had a time where they released a big new Pokemon game on the launch year of a new console- but it makes sense given the Switch to Switch 2 wouldn't be as large of a leap for them as the 3DS to the Switch, or the DS to the 3DS.

Another thing to note is that a new generation of Pokemon always tends to come out every three years. The only times where it didn't was when they delayed Generation 2, and skipped 2015. While they could skip 2025 and go on to 2026, I just feel like Gamefreak rather make something else that celebrates the big anniversary coming up.

For what it's worth, a supposed leak gave a specific day and it is in summer.

I think we will definitely get the official release date this week.

@FishyS Oh, without a doubt we're getting Z-A's release date. I just feel like given how everything is lining up, it would be strange for the game to release in the Summer with Gamefreak ignoring November. Especially given they tend to like maximizing profits. If it's also worth anything, the Teraleak confirmed that Z-A was originally supposed to launch back in 2024, meaning that could be why the timing would be so tight between Gen 10 and Z-A's releases.

@Novamii This is why I feel like Gamefreak might break that "no first year releases" for the first time in years. They'd stand to sell a good bit more consoles if the next Pokemon is a game that launches in the first year.

Do you mean 2005 here? There were 3 years between Pokemon X/Y (2013) and Sun/Moon (2016).

IDK, personally it feels way too early for Gen 10 given Legends Z-A this year. I know we got BDSP, PLA and SV in quick succession, but I pin a lot of that to BDSP being apparently last-minute and the pandemic affecting timelines somewhat. It seems rather weird to me that they'd go basically 3 years without a major release (outside of DLC) just to have 2 mainline titles in the same year.

Then again, I denied we were getting Gen 9 this time in 2022 and we saw what happened there so...shrugs.

Honestly more than anything I just want TPCI / Game Freak to be less predictable in their schedule. Just...ditch the whole "generations" thing entirely.

I wonder whether TPC would move out of the way of GTA6, if so that could explain choosing Summer for Legends Z-A over the normal November Pokemon slot.

@Grumblevolcano That seems way too cautious, especially for a big-hitter on a console that's not even getting GTA6. Sure, launching the same week probably isn't a smart move...but if every company were so nervous about launching remotely close to GTA6 we'd have nothing released all autumn. GTA5 and Pokemon X/Y were released only a month apart.

@Grumblevolcano
If any game could go up against the GTA6 launch, it's Pokemon.

Fairly different target demographics, being on a console that's not even getting GTA6 (at first)... I think it would be fine, really.

I think Pokemon Company's bigger calculation is how they want to play ZA's launch around the Switch 2. I think Switch 2 is hitting in June sooooo... do you want ZA coming out amongst a couple big Switch 2 exclusives with the console launch? I would think that's the bigger concern.

@Buizel What I have in mind is Mario takes over September and October on the Switch 2 side of things because of the anniversary. Meanwhile on the Take Two side of things you have Borderlands 4 on September 23rd suggesting that GTA6 on track for Fall 2025 would mean November which makes the Pokemon situation different from 2013.

So if TPC are fine launching within like 1-2 weeks of GTA6 then November's fine for Legends Z-A but if they're not then they may choose to release in like August.

@Grumblevolcano Fair, it's all just a big juggling act really. I'm tempted to agree with @rallydefault in that I believe the bigger consideration from Nintendo to be how it all fits in with their Switch 2 strategy. There's only so much they can plan around GTA6, and they've got their own consoles and schedules to worry about.

If Nintendo are to go as all-in with the Switch 2 launch as they did with the Switch in 2017, it's looking like 2025 will be a wild year.