@Bolt_Strike
Honestly I agree with the vast majority of your response so I'm not going to labour the point. But I will respond to this bit in particular just to highlight a miscommunication here:
What I'm saying is that I think people are putting WAY too much weight on this idea that Nintendo would be super concerned about hurting Switch sales closing in on 8 years into the console's life with ~140mill units sold and a new console that probably has not just backwards compatibility but a fairly significant library of "cross-gen" titles
People are putting out this idea of teasing out a codename to quiet investors while keeping the masses happily buying Switch consoles deep into 2024. I think people are seriously overestimating how much OG Switch hardware sales matter to Nintendo going forward. What matters is how well the Switch 2 launches. Doubly so if it also plays original Switch games. I can't see them putting the Switch 2 launch in a tighter spot for the sake of holiday Switch sales
As for the impact on OG hardware sales, BC and cross-gen are great things but they're not going to help keep OG Switch hardware sales up. They're going to help keep OG Switch GAME sales up. Doubly so if you're focusing on the hardware more than the games. The reveal of new hardware spreading around every corner of the internet and social media is inevitably going to cause people that were considering buying an OG Switch to hold off, so you're already shooting yourself in the foot for this Holiday
Yes. 100%. A new console launch would put a handbrake on hardware sales as people put a handbrake on buying Switch hardware waiting for Switch 2. But as I was saying, with ~140mill consoles out there and closing in on 8 years on the market? Hardware sales are not really a huge concern. Software sales are the big game here and, as you said, if there's backwards compatibility and cross-buy implemented well and well communicated? I don't think there'll be much of a dip on Switch software sales post-announcement. If anything there'll be a boost in Switch software sales post-launch
The problem I have with the very, very short lead is that it doesn't give much time to communicate these things. People will fill in the gaps themselves. They'll fill it in with what will be unfavourable assumptions. They'll decide that rather than waiting for a Switch 2 that will seemingly never come they'll grab a PS5 or Steam Deck or maybe by years end an XBox Portable. To be clear, I don't think an announcement as late as even October falls into that category because the bulk of sales are in November/December. But if they drag it as far out as January next year? I think at that point they're protecting Switch hardware sales, which at this point don't really matter, at the expense of a better Switch 2 launch
My guess at the timeline
A very general guess. It's impossible to say but I think there are some boundaries that do exist. I think they do have to say something at their investor meeting in May. That could be as little as just a confirmation of existence and a timeframe. There could be a full on April Direct reveal showing it off but, frankly, I'm with you here and I think if this thing truly is Q1 2025 now is way too early for that. I'm not ruling it out but I think it's unlikely
The other boundary that exists is Black Friday. I think they need to announce Switch 2, in the proper announcement sense, before people start making their big purchasing decisions for this year. They want little Jimmy to be saying to their parents that they want to wait for Switch 2, they don't want little Jimmy to be talking about the PS5 Pro. They're not selling over the holidays but they are selling holiday-adjacent, they want Switch 2 to be in people's minds over that period
The last bounding box is the hardest one to guess because it depends on when the hardware actually releases. My gut-feel is that you do a proper reveal ~6 months before launch and you can't really get that much tighter. Yes, the Switch was marginally tighter but E3 2016 was basically just used as platform for the big Switch launch title. But the problem we have is..... when will it launch? If it's March/April then they could push it as far out as October and still have a fair gap there. If it's as early as January then something like a July reveal makes more sense
All this is to say.... your guess is a September full reveal with the Investor meeting in May being nothing more than just confirmation? That tracks. That's a middle of the bell-curve prediction I think. I'm just.... still open to the possibility of something as early as June with the investor meeting giving us maybe as much as an intended date. And my other feeling is that if they refuse to mention Switch 2 until very late in the year these Nintendo Directs are going to get very empty very fast
Okay yeah, I agree much more with this much. I do think that in the earlier parts of that boundary, they'd be more likely to give vaguer details like a confirmation of the hardware's existence, codename, and release window and I think the more likely boundary for a full reveal is more August to Black Friday (for whatever reason, July never seems to be a big month for gaming news so I can't see it, August is a bit early but it's not so early that I'd think it's highly unlikely, so maaaybe August for more of a January/February release).
As far as Nintendo Directs I don't think we'll see a full Direct again until Spring 2025. They just don't seem to have much left before launch. I think we'll see a presentation similar to the January one in the Fall and that will take the place of the usual September Direct and I don't think they have enough titles until then to justify a Direct, so the next full Direct would probably be the usual Spring Direct where they give us more details on Switch 2 launch titles and show a few Holiday 2025 games. Until the reveal, I think whatever titles they might have left will probably be announced through social media drops, maybe a Mini at best. We'll probably just have to endure another lengthy Direct drought until after the reveal, I don't think there's much they can do about that.
It's always so funny to me how every single year, you have people going "the second half of Nintendo's year looks sparse...guess things might be winding down for the Switch," and then Nintendo eventually announces several games to fill out the rest of the release schedule.
Nintendo didn't have a full-fledged Direct early this year because there was no need for it. They had everything through March covered before then. Endless Ocean Luminous got forced into the Partner Showcase, presumably on the basis that it's co-credited to both Nintendo and Arika, while both TTYD and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD fit nicely into commemorating Mario Day specifically because they're both coming before the second half of the year. If Nintendo had nothing else planned for this year, they would've 100% spaced the current lineup of games out more. The reports of the Switch successor being pushed back into 2025 came before the Partner Showcase did, and thus any word of release dates past Princess Peach: Showtime!. They could've internally pushed back Endless Ocean, TTYD, and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD back to stretch the lineup out (e.g. Endless Ocean could've been in the middle of summer, LM2HD could've been an October release, and TTYD could've served as the November holiday release) - and they didn't. Last time people were talking like this, it was when Pikmin 4 was the only game on the horizon - and Nintendo went and announced another 6 games for 2023 in the June 2023 Direct. There's going to be more this year. The rumor mill has even already suggested some kind of Direct may be happening fairly soon, with Nintendo preparing to begin a heavy marketing campaign for Metroid Prime 4 (and we know they've already begun preparing a trailer for it, if they haven't finished it, given Retro is listed as a client on some trailer creation company's site now).
I think we all just need to relax. We already have 3 releases down for this year, with 3 more to go, and odds are, we'll see another 5-7 throughout the rest of the year. Nintendo is literally known to complete projects and reserve them for later. We've seen clear evidence of this throughout the Switch's lifespan, most notoriously with Fire Emblem Engage being rated over a year before it was released in Germany and then having all its DLC release in like 3 months. If the second half of the year looks empty now when the first half has a game per month on average, then I think we can safely assume there's more on the way - possibly enough to carry another full Direct, even if it's the last purely Switch-focused one.
@PikaPhantom
My view from the start is that it makes more sense for this transition to be a soft transition. You can see me making posts along those lines back in the "Switch Pro" rumour days. Hell, I was making posts saying that's where Nintendo needed to go back in the NX rumour days. So I'm not at all sold on the idea that the tap of Switch titles will turn off anytime soon
However even if these games start being cross-gen in that way, even if these games are on both, even if it's literally the same box. I think Nintendo holds back some of the big hitters for a Switch 2 launch. They want that launch to look like the Switch launch in that respect. New 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart 9, title after title after title. And if they're doing that then it just logically means the period before that has to be comparatively dry
I mean look at Nintendo's 2016 lineup. I know, I know, Wii U was Wii U but that year was what... Star Fox Zero and Twilight Princess HD early in the year and then Paper Mario Color Splash at the tail end. And the 3DS was Pokemon Sun/Moon, Rhythm Heaven, Metroid Prime: Federation Force and Fire Emblem Fates. I would expect this year to look somewhat similar. Not nothing just..... I wouldn't be expecting something as big as the end of 2023 was
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@skywake I think the quantity could be comparable, but it'd be made up of mostly remakes and remasters, if not just re-issues. I do think Metroid Prime 4 isn't going to be reserved for Switch 2, though. Not only do I think what happened with Twilight Princess and BOTW doesn't exactly set a firm precedent, and that Metroid ultimately isn't very well-suited to being a premier launch title (especially if it's available on the earlier system), but it's also an idea that's only really come up in fan circles. The only decently reputable leaker who's discussed it, at least from what I remember and somewhat recently, has even said he's only heard about Prime 4 being planned for Switch and not its successor (NatetheHate). It's possible it was intended as cross-gen, but if Nintendo's scrambling for a holiday release this year in the wake of the Switch successor delay, then Prime 4 is undoubtedly a suitable candidate, and they could simply tout it as "plays better on Switch 2" after the fact or something along those lines.
@PikaPhantom
I think there will be a small handful of games but they'll mostly be GC/Wii/3DS remasters or smaller titles. And honestly probably Kirby in there somewhere because there's always a Kirby game somewhere. I could see something at the scale of a Punchout, Wario Land, Rhythm Heaven or something. Not those titles specifically, although they've been absent for a while, but something of that scale. And I know it's been repeated to death for years but..... Wind Waker would be a great title to fill that gap
In terms of Metroid Prime 4? I've said it before but I think people are wrong to dismiss the idea of it being a Switch 2 launch-window title on the basis that it's not Mario or Zelda. I mean, it's not, without question. But most of the games in the Switch's first year weren't Breath of the Wild. Some people in the first year of the Switch picked it up for Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey. Some people picked it up for Skyrim or Doom. Some people got it for Puyo Puyo Tetris, Mario Kart and Snipperclips. Metroid Prime 4 is not a Breath of the Wild but it will pull in some people that a Mario Kart 9 will not
Also, as much as I love the idea of "plays better on Switch 2" and I'm all for it, that only really works if you haven't already beaten the game. If they do Metroid Prime 4 on Switch in October and then release Switch 2 in February next year? If I'm super into Metroid the idea that this game I've already beaten plays better on Switch 2 means nothing. I've already beaten it. If Switch 2 is already out when Metroid Prime 4 launches though? I probably pick up a Switch 2 for it. Metroid Prime 4 is more useful as a tool to drive Switch 2 adoption, IMO
I mean, the flipside is that Metroid Prime 4 launching alongside Switch 2 with potentially something like Mario Kart 9 and a new 3D Mario in the scene around the same period? Metroid Prime 4 gets lost in that mix. But as the star of the last holiday sales period for Switch it probably does well. So there's that
..... honestly, I just feel like Metroid Prime 4 could be a real graphical showpiece and a way to show off stuff like HDR, DLSS and post-1080p resolutions. It feels like a bit of a waste of potential if most people play that game on Switch with Switch 2 just around the corner
@skywake Conversely, if Metroid Prime 4 uses up all the potential of the Switch, then the game will be very well respected. Let folk who dream of updated graphics buy the remake in 10 years lol
You guys sure know your stuff. Or pretend to know, at least. Lol.
I'm not someone who goes into searching every possible rumor, cross references sources or studies Nintendo's history for every minute detail. But the upcoming investors meeting and Nintendo possibly wanting to reveal the Switch's successor at or shortly before said meeting, seems credible to me.
As for the launch lineup, might Pokémon Legends: Z-A be one by any chance? I feel like it'd have been the perfect holiday title for 2024, but it's coming out in 2025 instead. Has me wondering a bit.
That 10 year cycle might not actually mean 10 years of the Switch being the primary console on the market. No gaming console has lasted that long and with the factors I've mentioned, I don't see even the Switch being an exception. Nintendo has not said anything that directly deconfirms a successor launching next year (saying vague statements that don't deconfirm anything is PR 101). I could see 10 years meaning the Switch sticks around for a few years getting cross gen games like the 3DS did in the early years of the Switch, but I highly doubt we're going to be waiting until 2027 for the Switch's successor.
2 year cross over is quite long for Nintendo. I think they have been exaggerated in recent years whatwith the necessity of needing to do it due to the Pandemic for current gen. Their main strength now comes from having all their devs working towards a single platform. I would have thought there would be rumblings of restructure if they are supporting both. Maybe someone smarter than me will raise this at the investor's meeting. "You are always developing new hardware, are you planning on stil supporting Switch and if so, what hurdles might have to be jumped?" (or something.)
@steruphan Pokemon has been very rigid with release patterns for the Switch so I figure Pokemon Legends Z-A is late January like with Pokemon Legends Arceus in 2022. Maybe the whole Scarlet/Violet situation has changed things such that there ends up being longer gaps between Pokemon games but I don’t have much hope. I think it’s more likely that there’s unannounced Pokemon remakes being announced within the next few months for November and the usual pattern of 2021/2022 repeats (2024/2025 being 3 years after 2021/2022).
@Grumblevolcano It was probably mentioned earlier but, If they truly have games for this year they could've announced them at the last Pokemon Presents. BDSP was announced at the same time as Legends Arceus after all. I just don't get why would they skip announcing it there.
Although I agree with you that Legends ZA is probably for early next year. I do wonder how would they fit it in the schedule if the "Switch 2" is actually planned fot early next year as well. They would do like Fire Emblem Echoes SoV and just launch a month earlier exclusively on the previous platform?
@jowy_sw There’s a key thing that was missing from February which does need to be announced soon. Usually there’s a segment about Pokemon Worlds detailing when it takes place, what the venue is, the games being present, merch, prizes, etc. Worlds usually takes place in August so time is running out.
Also taking into account the creation of Pokemon Works and the 3DS/Wii U online shutdowns (affects Gens 6 and 7), it feels like The Pokemon Company split their announcements this year between events with the February one only existing because tradition (it’s Pokemon Day).
Considering BDSP and Legends Arceus release date was announced as a random tweet in late May, I think there’d be some event around April/May/early June that reveals remakes alongside a release date for Legends Z-A.
@Grumblevolcano I mean... sure, they COULD announce a game for this year in June if they wanted. Nintendo themselves announce games in june that release that very year and If we follow patterns, we could say that arround the same time they announced more info about Legends Arceus and BDSP they could announce that they actually have a mainline game for this very year.
But what I dont get is why they wouldn't mention it in Pokemon Day if they already announced Pokemon ZA. I just don't see why would they announce a future game while at the same time hide that they have one for this very year.
@steruphan Pokemon has been very rigid with release patterns for the Switch so I figure Pokemon Legends Z-A is late January like with Pokemon Legends Arceus in 2022. Maybe the whole Scarlet/Violet situation has changed things such that there ends up being longer gaps between Pokemon games but I don’t have much hope. I think it’s more likely that there’s unannounced Pokemon remakes being announced within the next few months for November and the usual pattern of 2021/2022 repeats (2024/2025 being 3 years after 2021/2022).
@steruphan Game Freak's always been a bit slow to move to new hardware, most notably with Black 2 and White 2 and Ultra Sun/Moon (though there is evidence they were planning to release those as holiday 2017 games on Switch as well before plans were canned, possibly just because the Switch was doing well enough to where it wasn't really necessary). I think there's a chance it's cross-gen, but I'm not convinced it won't drop in January/February and act as the final Switch release pre-Switch 2
Switch 2 deniers are actually claiming this year isn't slow for nintendo? We got 1 actual new game. A remake of a short gba game, a remaster, not remake, of a relatively unpopular 3ds game, and something so obscure that there was a debate over whether it was even a nintendo game. The only thing of note outside of peach is a gamecube remake. No february direct and nothing for later in the year. Even pokemon is skipping 2024. Are we really going to sit here and pretend this is a normal nintendo schedule just so we can keep telling ourselves we won't have to buy a new system soon?
I’m past the point of hyper analysing Nintendo’s schedules for next directs, it’s very obvious that the Switch is in need of a successor very soon based on their current game lineup. Now that the Princess Peach game is out, we aren’t getting many, if any more original games, and it already felt like 2023 was late stage Switch.
@Sigran102 Lol. 2 new games (Peach and EO3) not too shabby for March. And why is everyone thinking we shoukd know all of Nintendo's games for the year by April? When did that ever happen? Now I want a Switch 2 as much as the next person...but a game a month this year isn't quiet. It's still the most prolific Nintendo has been in generations! Lacking in titles for the AAA crowd maybe, but certainly not quiet.
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