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Topic: Lifetime Sales Predictions for Upcoming Games

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BanjoPickles

With a few big games coming, in the next couple of months, I thought now would be a good time to start predicting lifetime sales. Here are mine:

-Super Mario Odyssey (7-8.5 million, which would fall right into line with sales of Galaxy 1).
-Skyrim (1.5-2.5 million. The big name, coupled with the amount of exposure, will help push this past the usual sales numbers of other third party titles. There are a few things that will potentially hurt the figures, though. It IS a six year old game, arriving some time after the Remaster that released on XBONE and PS4. Also, much of the demographic may have already played it on any number of platforms. Myself, I've never played it so I'll be picking it up. I just don't see it doing more than 2.5, though, which would be about half of BotW's numbers).
-LA Noire (200-450k): Realistically? The game is really good, but it doesn't have much in the way of mainstream appeal. Also, those who have more than one console will likely get it for PS4 or XBONE, because it's cheaper and it will probably look better. Me, I am getting it on Switch, mainly to support third party releases, and I love the idea of playing it on the go).
-Doom (600k-1 million): If advertised, I could see this shifting some decent numbers, due to a lack of FPS's, and the seemingly high quality and name recognition. In fact, I'm going to lump Wolfenstein in with these sales figures).
-Xenoblade 2 (1.5-3 million): They're doing an excellent job of letting people know that this game exists, and I think that it will pay off. The first Xenoblade sold pretty well, and there's an excitement surrounding this title. I likely won't be getting it until much later (I just have way too much on my plate, at the moment).

What do you guys think?

BanjoPickles

GrailUK

Cripes! I have absolutely no idea lol!

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

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GrailUK

@FinalFrog I need you to be more specific.

I never drive faster than I can see. Besides, it's all in the reflexes.

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BanjoPickles

The answer is always 5.

BanjoPickles

JasmineDragon

@BanjoPickles I thought the answer was 42. Wait, what was the question?

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Remind yourself that overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.

FragRed

@BanjoPickles Here is my thoughts, though I am no expert and this is actually really difficult being it's a Nintendo system but then again a system that you can take wherever and use however and is getting a lot of attention and marketing.

-Super Mario Odyssey - I think sure maybe hit 7 million lifetime but it's an odd one. It could easily do more if Nintendo really hammers home the marketing campaign everywhere constantly this holiday season. Nintendo are hitting the older demographics whom were Nintendo fans and now maybe moved away from gaming or moved onto other systems. So bringing them back seems to be part of the whole reverting to red and white logo etc etc.

-Skyrim - This is tricky. Skyrim is a well known big game. Sure it has been on loads of platforms but its never been portable. So I can see a lot of people just buying it to have on the go even if they own it twice before. You also have that Nintendo market that never played it before. However, as you pointed out it is a 6 year old game based on a last year remaster without (assuringly) any mod support. It is also coming out a week after Doom though the market audience might be slightly different to a degree. I think at most, 500k to be totally honest unless people really do want to buy it again. Again I want to see how Nintendo markets this, if at all.

LA Noire - I am sorry but if it reaches 100k I would be surprised. And yes I mean 100k lifetime sales. I just don't think it's a game that is going to attract many who have played it before and I think a lot will depend on how well it has aged. Also it won't get any of the improved visuals the other two consoles are getting, though it is portable.

Doom - This could do extremely well if Nintendo again really markets this game. If they really want more mature games on the system, then get the word out there about this game's existence on your console and on the go. Doom is a name everyone knows and a lot of gamers who perhaps have kinda moved away as they got older see this new game on the Switch, a portable system from Nintendo, and see it's based upon the original in a lot of ways, it may just do incredibly well. But then again maybe not. So yeah I think about 500k tops but we shall see.

Xenoblade 2 - I have absolutely no idea. Its really hard. The first game was kinda a niche audience wasn't it? Though perhaps now it's on a system that is selling amazingly well in Japan alone, this game will sell bucket loads too. I really can't put a number on this as I have no idea about the series or the audience.

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JasmineDragon

Honestly, people who have been doing this for a living their whole adult lives have a hard time predicting these things. That's why some games, even some systems, fail spectacularly while others are sleeper hits and become hard to acquire within a year.

But, taking it for granted that these are all going to be wild guesses, I would put Skyrim and Doom at around 1 million each, lifetime. It is true that they're both games thay have already been played a lot, but they also have devoted followings, and that will drive a lot of sales. Portability is a huge thing, too.

Mario Odyssey, easily 7 million.

Not sure about XC2 at all until we start to see reviews.

Edited on by JasmineDragon

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ValhallaOutcast

potato? was I close

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kkslider5552000

I entirely agree with the OP. I was gonna go lower for Skyrim and Xenoblade but then I remember...wait for it...yes, Street Fighter 2 for 40 bucks in 2017 did really well! So optimism is believable in this case.

I think Sonic Forces will be 1.5 - 2 million. Also, for a crazy one, 3+ million for Rocket League. After E3, I feel like this is Nintendo's beloved 3rd party game this year and I think with a lack of first party Nintendo titles in November, Nintendo themselves are gonna really push for it to be a success.

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the_shpydar

JasmineDragon wrote:

I thought the answer was 42. Wait, what was the question?

This is the only correct response. You indeed are a hoopy frood who knows where your towel is at.

The Shpydarloggery
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Inertiacreep

JasmineDragon wrote:

Not sure about XC2 at all until we start to see reviews.

It's already been reviewed - 10/10
Besides, this is like the first real jrpg on the switch so we can basically expect practically everyone in Japan to buy it and everyone with a brain in the US... it will sell 5m within its first year.

Inertiacreep

Bolt_Strike

I think Odyssey will hit over 10 million in sales at some point (might take a few years), possibly even breaking records for sandbox Marios and reaching 15 million. The game is coming out early and has a ton of hype behind it, I could see it selling extremely well. 1-2 million for Forces sounds about right, that's about where 3D Sonic games typically sell. Don't really care about any other Switch games right now.

Bolt_Strike

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