Topic: If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

@Bolt_Strike I can’t see the sales of Switch hardware allowing Nintendo to make it to 2027. I actually don’t think it’ll last long enough to make it to 2026. Not unless Nintendo is able to somehow appease shareholders that it’s worth holding out despite low sales. I’m also not sure how long Nintendo can keep the general casual gamers interested in Switch hardware because at some point that interest will fade.

@FragRed Well I didn't change my opinion that it would be dumb of them to wait too long, I just think they're more likely to make the dumb move now (the Switch's success might be making them arrogant). Now I don't think the sales will absolutely fall off a cliff next year or something, it does seem like the Switch just keeps selling so we might see more of a gradual tapering off, but I do think that they'll let the sales fall further than they probably should be by the time the next console finally releases. Meanwhile, I think there might still be several unannounced games they could release over the next few years to stretch things out. Besides the Peach game and the Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon remaster, we know Prime 4 is out there, there's been rumors of DK, Mario Baseball, and something else with Odyssey (might be a stretch at this point because they want a big 3D Mario at launch for the next console, but there's been rumors about Mario Odyssey 2 and the Tokyo team's output has been a tad light since Odyssey), and there's various ports/remakes/remasters they could pad things out with (there's been rumors of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door, WW/TP HD, Oracles remakes, Kid Icarus: Uprising and F-Zero, some other potential candidates could be Xenoblade Chronicles X, Super Mario 3D Land, Star Fox Zero, and ALBW). They could potentially coast another 2+ years on that kind of lineup.

I believe Nintendo has had the next console lined up for years now (perhaps if the switch failed after the Wii u, they would have quickly released another sooner as a failsafe). It’s all in how Nintendo handles the new console announcement’s timing and execution. Investment will be at a high at all times, so Nintendo can take their time with the switch while maintaining interest from the fans wondering what could possibly succeed the switch.

@TheBigBlue That's probably how they handle just about every console transition to some degree, although they might speed up or slow down the process based on how the current gen console is faring. We know that they begin work on the next gen console soon after the current gen console is released. So they've probably long decided what the console will be like and they're mainly just making tweaks, quality testing, and developing games for it. Then when it's ready they probably strategically schedule the release at the time they think would make for the smoothest transition. I don't think any of this is new or revolutionary, the issue here is that the Switch is succeeding, but inevitably going to be replaced. So how do they handle the game library so that the Switch doesn't suffer game droughts in its final few years and artificially tank in sales, the next gen console gets enough killer apps to take off out of the gate, and the games sell as much as possible? This transition more than ever feels like a tricky balancing act.

@TSR3 —
RE: Match the PS2 . . . that's just me being a Wii U owner. LOL. When I was sitting there as a Wii U owner waiting for games . . . I started to notice total units sold. So when the Switch came out, I've just been keeping my eye on the number. LOL. But I'm totally serious about a Switch Mini! LOL.

@LuigiTheGreenFire
Yes. I agree. If its 2-3 years away . . . I would agree about moving on at that point.

As for the Wii and DS . . . I guess if a publisher can make more money releasing a game as for the new console versus the old console, they have an obligation to do that . . . just makes sense. Support for older consoles I guess only lasts 1-2 years afterwards.

I think the difference with the Switch may be that we are paying for on-line versus how it was free for Wii and Wii U. So maybe that money can go to keep the Switch eShop open for a bit longer so that we can play the retro games, and buy more digital games that are already developed.

@Bolt_Strike . . . I agree that SMB Wonder looks pretty awesome. Not a swansong type game. There is always the possibility that it spans the old and new console. Like how BOTW was released for the Wii U and Switch.

But I am in the same boat in that I'd be ok if Nintendo keeps the Switch around 2-3 more years.

There are still tonnes of games I've been looking to start. And now after the latest Nintendo Direct . . . there's a tonne more games again. LOL.

Take care,

@NintendoDad Nah, a cross gen strategy doesn't work unless it's a simultaneous release. The ship has already sailed for that.

At first, it all seems very suspicious that Nintendo is releasing brand new entries in top franchises like Mario and Zelda in the tail end of the switch’s life cycle. But if nintendo has even the most basic backwards compatibility features for the next console with Switch, then it does make sense. I wonder if it will be a Wii U type situation where you can transfer data from the Switch to the new thing (since Furukawa confirmed Nintendo accounts are being brought over today, that’s a likely case.) and the new console would also have joy con compatibility for some games that use the extra built in features (motion control, etc.) such as Switch Sports for example.

The pro controller is probably aimed towards those who want a more traditional control scheme present in older controllers like the PS 1,2,3 controllers, and the joy cons, while they are pretty flimsy, they still needed to be smaller and frail in order to be functional for the switch’s portable mode.

@Bolt_Strike Ah gotcha. I was just thinking more about the problems Nintendo could face holding out until anything beyond 2025, such as Valve releasing an even newer model of the Steam Deck which is already a beefy machine for a similar price point. Gonna be hard to justify to potential gamers if Valve release an even more powerful version in the next two or so years for a similar price than whatever the next Nintendo console will be.

@FragRed Isn't it still the case that you can only buy the Steam Deck on Steam itself though? Valve would need to make a big push outside that (i.e. be able to buy at retail and the usual sites like Amazon) for it to have any chance of affecting Switch.

@Grumblevolcano I can see that happening at some point to be honest. The Steam Deck seems to be selling pretty well as it is, so yeah I can see them selling through retailers in the future.

@FragRed

RE: The Steam Deck

The thing for me is that I get the Nintendo console for the Nintendo IP.

I want the Mario, Yoshi, Kirby, Metroid, etc games.

For me, it doesn't matter if another console is more powerful.

Now, I do have a Steam account. And if I had a Steam Deck I'd have lots of games to play on it. But then I wouldn't get to play the Nintendo games. Whereas . . . since I have a Switch, I can play the Nintendo games . . . and play my Steam games on my computer . . . that I have to have anyway to do work-for-work on.

@Bolt_Strike

Unless . . . there is another release happening on Oct 20th, 2023 . . . LOL.

I don't think it is . . . but if it did happen . . . then that would be a simultaneous release. And that was something I was hinting at in my post. LOL.

Here is the line from my post . . .

"There is always the possibility that it spans the old and new console."

ie. . . . "possibility" that the Switch2 drops Oct 20th, 2023 as well. LOL.

But I was mostly just joking around though . . . LOL.

@Bolt_Strike I think a DK game would probably be announced in September, the Booster Course Pass character choices and Super Nintendo World additions at least suggests that DK will get the spotlight. It seems very likely that the wave 6 characters will be from the DK franchise given what's left to pick from, I think it'll be Diddy Kong and Funky Kong.

@Grumblevolcano That would make a lot of sense, but then there's been rumors about DK since 2021 (remember when they said it was being planned for DK's 40th? They missed that by 2 WHOLE YEARS) and we're still waiting to see it. At this point I'm pretty much done seriously predicting we'll see DK, but it constantly remains a possibility until it finally happens. I do think they'll have some kind of rather significant 1st party game in September (not sure if we'll see anymore A tier IPs like 2D Mario, but good chance of B and C tier stuff), but I'll believe DK is coming when I see it, there's been so much smoke and we've been waiting for the fire for a while.

@Bolt_Strike Well I remember the Nintendo Life forums mentioning rumours that Fire Emblem Engage was being planned for FE's 30th in 2020 and that released in January 2023.

They'll release it when they feel it's ready and they feel it's the right time. I get the Switch is really showing it's age but I'm pretty sure they don't want another Wii U ever again

Seeing the titles coming out lately . . . I've been noticing that some were supposed to come out 1-3 years ago.

Wondering if COVID slowed things down.

And wondering if the developers were asking Nintendo to hold off on their next console so that they could release their game on the current platform, rather than having to switch gears and target the next console.

For me . . . as long as new games are coming out, I don't mind if the Switch sticks around another year or two.

As one of the few that bought a Wii U, since there were very little games coming out for the Wii U, I couldn't wait for the next consolve to come out.

But since there are so many games available for the Switch . . . I'm still busy getting around to playing the ones I want to play.