Topic: If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

I posed this question the other day on another site and wondered what a Nintendo-focused community thinks.

In at least a few ways, Nintendo is in unprecedented territory. The Switch is their first hybrid platform. It is currently their second-best selling platform ever, and it's a reasonable prediction that it could eclipse the DS.

Nintendo's radio silence (for now) for the rest of the year (besides Pikmin 4 and Pokemon DLC) and next year does suggest a Switch 2 is coming out at least by the end of Q1 2025. It's pretty likely Switch 2 could launch at any quarter in 2024 past Q1 (the end of the fiscal year).

But let's imagine Nintendo drags the Switch out even further. Do we have some historical precedence for this? Yes, we do. The Game Boy launched in Japan and NA in 1989 (most other regions followed in 1990). The Game Boy Color didn't launch until Q4 1998, and the Game Boy Advance didn't launch until the first half of 2001. I mentioned both of these platforms because there is still a debate whether or not the GBC is a midgen upgrade or a successor.

Nintendo wants Switch to have a long-life cycle, but whether or not that means a very long-life cycle before replacement is yet to be determined.

What would happen if Switch didn't get a successor until Q4 2026? What games and potential new iterations of the Switch could we see? And do you think it could be possible for Switch to have a Pro, 4K, or Deluxe branded version that launches at some point between Q2 2024 and Q4 2026 that is a Game Boy Color situation all over again? And then would it be possible to have a Switch 2 wait all the way until Q4 2028 or later?

Well part of the reason the Game Boy's lifespan continued for a while was because of Pokemon, Pokemon breathed new life into the Game Boy and was a system seller. With the Switch I don't see a similar game that could convince gamers that aren't already engaged with the Switch to jump in or come back, we have TotK but that's just more of the same from BotW and I don't think it will singlehandedly keep the Switch alive like Pokemon did. They'd probably need a new IP that ends up being even more of a phenomenon than BotW or TotK to do that.

Really I think sticking with the Switch as the main console past 2025 would be a mistake. Developers are starting to abandon the Switch, so if they try to stretch it out, the release schedule will be bone dry.

As for what games will be coming next? Well, that's easy, you just look at the ones that haven't had a game in 3+ years. 2D Mario. 3D Mario. Mario Kart. 2D Zelda. DK. Luigi's Mansion. Yoshi. Smash. We should see most if not all of these release over the next 2 or 3 years regardless of whether or not it's the Switch or its next gen successor (now maybe they might be a bit more reluctant with Mario Kart and especially Smash if they're still on Switch, but the rest are strong candidates to get another Switch entry).

Well, I will build my PS5 games library from 3rd party kids games since Switch hardware in my opinion already outdated to play 3rd party multi console games. Added with trash treatments from certain game companies such as code in box, partial download, streaming only, etc I became more uninterested to pick 3rd party multi console games on Switch version and pick the PS4 / PS5 version instead as possible.

I don't care with certain Nintendo IP like zelda, xenoblade, splatoon, etc as I will not play those games and I don't care whatever happened to those games.
I don't care with retro NSO games also as I don't like renting digital games.

I want to see the underrated Nintendo IP like ARMS get proper sequel as I really really want Boxing sport get more appreciation by a lot of peoples.

@Bolt_Strike
The GameBoy also had effectively zero competition. There were alternatives sure but not at similar price points or battery life. The Switch on the other hand has competition from multiple angles. PlayStation and XBox in the home console space. Steam Deck and the like in the portable console space. And also smartphones and tablets in the same way they've been competition since the DS era

Switch still has a niche but it is being beaten on spec and in many cases price on ALL of those angles. They can probably chug along on exclusives sure but eventually something's gotta give. They need something new to keep people interested.

Short of another Pokemon that's gotta be new hardware. Whether that's new hardware in terms of some novelty to draw people in (GBC), a significant spec bump (GBA) or possibly both (DS)

Edit: Also worth noting when we're talking about the GB line, even if you for some reason exclude GBC, Nintendo still had home consoles. 1989-2001, in that period of time Nintendo went from NES to GC. With the Switch the only other platform is mobile

@Anti-Matter

Soo what your saying is you don't mind playing 3rd party games on PS5 but you mind on the Nintendo Switch? The switch is region free if you don't like the games in one region just switch region or add extra users for different regions see what other games are being released. One nintendo's most stupidest moves was region locking the 3ds. Obviously they saw how it backfired which makes me think is why they went back to region free with the switch. I have switch games from all over. No harm in it. I imported games long before the switch for DS, GBA, & GBC.

@Bolt_Strike

I think nintendo over flooded the market with pokemon games for the game boy originally speaking. I remember going to the game store back then & managed to get: pokemon yellow, pokemon red, & pokemon blue for game boy for $2 each. I just wanted to see the difference between all three. Apparently the difference was you start out with different pokemon but the storyline was the same. Yellow = Pikachu, Red = Charzard, Blue = Squirttel (I know I misspelled it). I think I gave my cousin either red or blue back then with the gameboy color I gave her~ 🤔🤷‍♀️✌️

@Skywake

I know. The Original NES, & SNES were my first game systems long before the handheld. What I thought was interesting I was at my friend's house one day & he asked if I had any gameboy games on me this was before I upgraded to the original GBA back then & I had Ducktales GB with me & he asked if I wanted to see it on the big screen (tv) he had the Super Gameboy cartridge so I said okay. It was interesting even back then seeing a gameboy game on the big screen. He said it could only do game boy games & not gameboy color which was kind of a bummer but still cool non the less to see~ 🤷‍♀️✌️

Happy Gaming! (^_^)

@Barbiegurl777
Nintendo Switch, PS4, PS5 games are already REGION FREE.
I was talking about my priority in getting 3rd party multi console kids games like Paleo Pines, No Place Like Home, Story of Seasons A Wonderful Life, etc (those 3rd party games also on Nintendo Switch as well) since I knew the Switch version will mostly getting worse performance than PS4 / PS5 + the trash treatments from certain developers to treat the Switch version by code in box, partial download, streaming only, etc it made me became uninterested to get Switch version so I will pick the PS4 / PS5 version instead for the same games.

I was desperate for a successor as I cannot play 30fps games and was hoping a new switch would fix that. Over the last few years I now only play retro / indie titles and mostly on my switch. I feel like the switch is perfect for that so for me I could just use it forever.

I sometimes like to play the game "what did Anti-Matter say this time" by opening the thread in an incognito tab. Usually it's not worth the effort. Today was one of those times

I think unless there was a GBC style revision (GBC wasn't a successor but rather a GB revision), 3rd party support would erode away or go even more cloud version heavy as more games skip PS4/XB1. But there would still end up being a huge interest in the Switch due to a strong 1st party lineup and Switch would beat PS2 hardware numbers. As for alternate hardware revisions in the outcome of no GBC style revision, Switch Lite OLED would seem the most likely.

It'll be business as usual.

Nintendo can wait until 2026 to release the Switch successor and their brand will be no worse for wear.

@Anti-Matter

I didn't know that about PS4 & PS5 being region free like I said before I'm still using my PS2. I know the PS1 & PS2 are region locked. Soo the PS3 is region locked as well? Wondering if Playstation purposely went region free to compete with nintendo since they are rival video game companies... 🤔 Which do you recommend the PS4 or PS5? Is the PS5 backwards compatible? To play PS1, PS2, PS3, PS4. I know my PS2 is backwards compatible with PS1 because I play both PS1, PS2, & DVD's in it. Currently watching 2nd season of Mama's Family on DVD in it right now~ 🤣

@Magician

Yes hopefully nintendo wait's a little while before moving on to the next system. I noticed recently when they move on. The games for previous systems go sky high in price. Trying to get the games now while system is still current so don't have to pay higher prices later for same games... 🤦‍♀️✌️ Got a small backlog of games to still get yet as for physical cartridges... 🤦‍♀️🤙

Happy Gaming! (^_^)

@Barbiegurl777
PS3 was already REGION FREE long time ago.
PS3 can play PS1 games in disc but the PS1 games region must be same as your PS3 region machine. PS1 games are still region lock on PS3 machine so you cannot play PS1 USA, games on PS3 Japan / Asia machine and vice versa.
PS3 can play PS2 games but only from PS3 Fat 60 GB model and it was very rare and not a good model as it was easily to get overheated.
PS4 simply NOT backward compatible with any PS1, PS2, PS3 games in disc since PS4 machine used different machine architecture than previous machine, but PS4 has a lot of good kids games like Cooking Mama, Story of Seasons, My Universe, Horse Club Adventures, LOL Surprise, Jojo Siwa, My Little Pony, etc.
PS5 is Backward Compatible with any PS4 games in disc.

PS5 maybe way more expensive than PS4 machine but you will have two machines in one body (PS4 + PS5) and some PS4 games got 60 FPS support on PS5.

@Anti-Matter

So basically keep the PS2 for PS1 & PS2 compatibility & get the PS5 to play both PS4 & PS5. Skip PS3 all together~ 🤣 I didn't know it had an overheating problem... 🤷‍♀️ I knew the Xbox had an overheating problem from talking with friends in high school year's ago~ 🤷‍♀️ Maybe in a few year's upgrade to PS5~ 🤷‍♀️✌️

Happy Gaming! (^_^)

@Barbiegurl777
PS3 Slim & Super Slim are the perfect model to play PS3 and PS1 games.
They will not get overheated as the PS3 Fat model.
PS3 have some quirky and unusual kids games that also on Wii like Surf's Up, Up (Disney Pixar), Disney Universe, Order Up, Sports Champions, Ratchet & Clank All 4 One, etc.
PS3 have their own Wii mote called PS Move and there are some PS3 games required PS Move to play like Wii style.
Better pick PS3 as your part of collection since they have unique games model that never repeated again on PS2 or PS4.
Literally I have 61 PS3 games in disc currently.

Ok . . . here's a question for your question . . .

Is it possible for Nintendo to keep the Switch around even after they introduce their next console?

For a lot of gamers . . . this is all the power they need.

It could be a great way to keep the retro library available for gamers.

What if the next console ends up being really powerful, but also really expensive . . . the Switch could remain as the less expensive option (like the Wii Mini was supposed to be a cost effective solution against the Wii U?).

What if the next console ends up being non-portable? If so . . . maybe there would be a way to work the Switch into the fold . . . either as the portable option, or a way to stream your games from the Switch2 to your Switch while you are somewhere else in your house . . . or perhaps remotely? Maybe there would be a way to use your Switch as the handheld controller (like the Wii U Gamepad) to the basestation / Switch2?

Or even . . . as a cutdown offering to the complete Nintendo service. Like how the Wii eshop remained around even after the Wii U appeared. You could keep buying and playing Wii games. But obviously you would not be able to play the latest and greatest (ie. Wii U games) on your Wii.

Of course . . . if the Switch2 ends up being everything the Switch is and more . . . than I guess the Switch's days will be numbered. But if that ends up being the case . . . I would be all for a Switch Mini. Smaller and cheaper than the Switch Lite . . . to give the OG Switch a slight sales number boost as it clears the stage for the Switch2.

For me . . . I am also interested to see if the Switch can end up dethroning the Sony PS2 as the highest selling gaming console ever. LOL.

Nintendo will have a much better picture than any of us (sales data is out of date the moment it's printed!) But at the moment they are balancing low(er) hardware sales and high(er)software sales with transistioning to higher hardware sales and lower software sales. Now contrary to most internet sites, the Switch sales have declined, sure, but they have not fallen off a cliff (especially in Japan!). If anything the decline is accentuated by the impact of Covid. So, if Nintendo are waiting, then they still need a prolific slate of top tier titles. If not, then they need to release a slew of remasters and fun games while the bigger titles become focused on their next hardware. Like I said, I'm sure Nintendo have a much better idea of when to pull the trigger. I have confidence in them. Next year could be the year, but we'll have a much better idea if we see a price cut or not, or if we see one of their big games or not into next year.

Yes, it's very possible, as the OLED model was almost that system. It matched most of the specifications that were speculated for s Switch Pro, except for the additional performance / 4K output. Subsequent teardowns have discovered that the OLED has all the circuits capable of full 4K output to a TV, and we already knew from Shield TV that the Tegra TX1 could actually run games at 4K. BUT, Nintendo didn't pull the trigger on those options in 2021. The probably had other plans

Technically yes. But Nintendo already have a customised Tegra SoC from Nvidia ready to roll. I'm referring to T239/Drake of course. To aim for 2028 to launch a successor would mean junking all that silicon development work, and starting again with Nvidia, or another chip supplier. That would cost many many millions. And what's the business benefit of waiting until 2028? Nintendo have other IPs they can use as launch titles other than 3D Zelda!

I'm very confident Nintendo will have great new hardware and great new games all lined up for 2024. They just need to repeat the marketing success of the original Switch launch, and not the marketing fail of the WiiU.

@NintendoDad Yep, I reckon the original Switch will match the PS2 for total sales, and for having a long life. The New Machine is not going to be cheap, and not all the new games are going to exclusive for a couple of years or so. And I would be all in for a Switch Mini as well!

@NintendoDad

Hopefully, Nintendo keeps supporting Switch a good amount even after Switch 2 is out. In the unlikely chance Switch 2 is still 3 or more years away, I can understand dropping Switch quickly after the next system launches. You can only sell Switch hardware for so long, but backwards compatibility would make it a non-issue to release smaller games as Switch titles.
It's quite baffling that Nintendo didn't support the Wii and DS better after they were replaced. There wasn't much new to play on DS and Wii after they were replaced. Nintendo cut off some easy profits while the 3DS had a rocky 6+ starting months and the Wii U tanked its entire life.

Honestly I think they are dragging out the Switch for longer than we expect after this Direct. A game like Super Mario Bros. Wonder is not a swansong type of game you waste on the twilight years of a console. If a new console was coming anytime soon this should've been a launch title, it's something so new and fresh and represents a new era for 2D Mario that if the Switch were on its way out they should've held onto it for a year or two. I think this says that they think the Switch still has a few years ahead of it and they're not quite ready to move on yet. Also, if they're ready to tease 2024 games this early they might have even more to show in September and February, so 2024's lineup might also be pretty substantial itself. I think this Direct signals that next gen isn't until 2025 at the earliest, they might even try to hold out as late as 2027 for the next gen Switch.