Topic: Switch 2 Has To Much Against It To Be A Commercial Success

@JaxonH
I'm gonna go without the pro controller for a bit. I actually used the grip and Joycons from launch day with the original Switch for a looooooong time without any issue, so these should be even better.

@skywake
lol I love it

My prediction is it will do great this year and then consistently disappoint compared to Switch 1 every other year.

Also worried their B-tier series are gonna be screwed by 70 dollar price tags.

I see kids using giant tablets all the time. If they want to play something, they'll make it work.

That said, I don't expect it to sell as much as Switch 1. There was a lot of pent up demand for a new Nintendo console. It steamrolled out of the gate with an absolutely legendary first year, and never really lost momentum (which is why I'll be all the more surprised if we don't get a new 3D Mario before Jan. 2026). The price was incredibly reasonable. The concept was new and super exciting. The pandemic hysteria/lockdowns and Animal Crossing converged BEAUTIFULLY. And so on.

I'd be genuinely surprised if it doesn't hit 100m units lifetime, at least, but I'd also be surprised if it came within 25+ million of Switch 1's eventual numbers.

Switch 2 won't get a pandemic boost like Switch 1 did in 2020/2021, and it is currently being threatened by Trump tariffs which (if applied) could price American customers out of the market.

But other than that, I think this thing will be a huge hit. All of the aforementioned issues from the OP plagued the Switch 1 and they ended up not mattering at all, I think the same will apply to Switch 2.

It will also have the x box and next steam deck handhelds to compete with in the near future which will both likely be more powerful. I am a nintendo fan boy and have ordered the console. Without a strong gimmick (mouse mode) the unique selling point are the first party titles. They need to come out swinging to create momentum. With switch 1 the whole console was a unique gimmick. I don't think the launch titles at the moment have set the world on fire. The response to the pricing of games has def killed momentum they would have wanted. And with competitors deliberately dropping messages now that their more powerful handhelds are around the corner. Nintendo need a statement piece with a first party title and to follow that up with more. Maybe the next Mario?

@M67 My problem with this assessment is that if as you claim the price is too much for people, how is a more powerful device that is absolutely going to cost more somehow take market share away?

Is this an inverse bell curve where cheap is cheerful, $400-600 is bad and anything above that is cheerful again?

@Haruki_NLI They are just my thoughts. I feel like the switch 1 had a wow factor and was also a first mover in that phase of handheld consoles but the switch 2 doesn't have the same wow factor to set it apart. I think price aside. What first impression does the console make is a big question in making it a must have. I think the pricing of the games is bigger shock than the pricing of the console. When TOTK was released the reasons for increase in price were detailed by DB. This was justified by how massive the game experience is. That game gives a lot. I don't know that Mariokart world is that big a step up from Mariokart 8. I just think it is lacking a stand out title at launch and one of the things that unfortunately does stand out is the pricing of games.

The biggest factor is how the tariff will affect Switch 2 long term sales forecast. If it jumps back not only will Switch 2 take hits so will alot of other consoles and their hardware. So it's not just Nintendo that has to factor what to do here. The staying power of the Switch is portable and hybrid system and game library that can be move to and played on Switch 2. Forgot the software sales numbers but this eclipse anyone's imagination and Nintendo doesn't want to loose this market share.

@M67
I just watched the MK World Direct. I wasn't exactly wowed with stuff I didn't already see or hear from the hands-on people at the Experiences, but you really don't think World is a "big step up" from 8?

What would you need?

I guess that's an open question to everybody who keeps acting like they're gonna need to take a loan against their mortgage over this extra 10 dollars: So, since we're stuck in this inane debate over how much value games have and what their prices should be, what would justify the 10-dollar increase for you?

@rallydefault Where I live, in Sweden, they are charging the equivalent of 104 dollars for the game at the current exchange rate. The price on Amazon France is cheaper though. I could order it from there and it would work out at 94 dollars. Even at 80 dollars in the US that is 20 dollars more than MK8 retailed when it was launched. That is a 33% rise in prices for games gen to gen. That is a lot.

This mariocart has a few extra gimmicks. Its cool. It's not a mind-blowing difference from MK8. It's a little bit extra. That's great. It's just not 33% increase in price good even with inflation taken into account. Imagine they used the logic they used for pricing TOTK on the next Zelda or Mario game. Those will be the stand out games on the system and maybe they will charge 100 dollars. I want the system to be a success it is in the interests of people who buy it that is a success because it will get better support from Nintendo and third parties. I'm wondering if the system flops will we see another nintendo console much sooner again. I think the games should be 10 dollars cheaper. I think it would make a big difference in the consoles success.

@M67
What would make the game 33% better for you?

@rallydefault BOTW was a game you could do a substantial price increase on when it was released. Mind blowing leap compared to the previous Zeldas.

This is just an average Mariokart update. The open world is a really cool idea. Had it been that you could get out of the cart and have a some amount 3d Mario levels with an engaging story within the world then that would have been a lot better. Even if you stayed in the cart but there was a substantial amount of inspiring and engaging things to do in the open world that might justify an increase but they haven't shown anything like that yet in any of the footage shown. Price increases are normal but i think they should have kept it to a 10 dollar increase on a game like this.

Nope. Disagree. Having a Mario Kart at launch will probably be enough to get parents to buy a Switch 2. The Joy-Cons don’t look that much different, but they likely feel a lot better than the OG Joy-Cons, which don’t feel great. Overall, on paper, it might seem like the Switch 2 is doomed, but if the Switch 1 (which was arguably an even worse deal) pulled through, so can the Switch 2.

@M67 PS5 is also competing with similarly specced PCs and Xbox. PS5 is also an incremental upgrade over the PS4 with no real game-changing gimmicks. Yet it's doing pretty well at 75 million+ units sold.

I don't think anyone believes the Switch 2 will outsell the original Switch. I do think the system will do well though and will probably be amongst Nintendo's top-sellers - but ofc. hard to tell at this point without knowledge of (i) how Nintendo will support the system in the future and (ii) other market factors incl. the global economy.

Personally I think Switch 2 will have a stronger launch year than Switch 1 - it wouldn't surprise me if it broke sales records. Although many like to bemoan the lack of a BotW-level game at launch, Mario Kart is a big deal and will drive a lot of interest. Plus it's riding high on the coattails of the original Switch.

The Mario Kart World vs 8 value comparison is odd I feel. Especially because the amount you actually spent on both really depends on how you're getting both

For me I got Mario Kart 8 on Wii U when it launched. Not as a bundle because I already had a Wii U but because the Wii U was struggling they did give you a free game if you got Mario Kart 8. Even so, what game next more than covered the cost of that free game. There was DLC that was a charge after launch. Then the Switch launches and I got it again because you can't not have a Mario Kart on a portable. Maybe I could've skipped it.... but if I had I wouldn't have been able to access the Deluxe DLC for that which at least was included in NSO and battle mode

Mario Kart World? There's a bundle at launch. Technically I'm paying about $10 less than the RRP of the base version of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for World

I think it'll be a commercial success. Sell more than or equal to Switch 1? Maybe not, but it'll still be a success overall.

@M67
I don’t recall any other Mario Karts being open world. You don’t think that’s a big step?

@rallydefault I think its a step but how engaging the open world is will determine how big the step that is. If nintendo came out and said they were developing an open world metroid or donkey kong game we would just assume they would populate that open world with a substantial amount of things to engage us, right? I think Mariokart should be judged by the same standard especially with the price increase.

Mariokart aside. I think the price increase for the games at large is jarring. I think also Switch 1 had many factors going for it that Switch 2 doesn't currently. Other people have made compelling arguments for why it will be a great success. I've already ordered it.