In its Q3 financial results at the start of February Nintendo confirmed that it was increasing its forecast for software sales over the year from 200 million to 220 million units. While the runaway early success of Pokémon Legends: Arceus is certainly a factor in that, 'evergreen' older titles are still contributing many millions of sales each year, with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe being the prime example (to the point it now has a new two year DLC roll-out on the way).
Asked about the trend in an investor Q & A, however, company President Shuntaro Furukawa highlighted the impressive ongoing sales of 'evergreen' games but made it clear that this likely won't be sustainable in the coming years for the Switch. This'll be a natural evolution as the system's generation enters its latter years; with less 'new' owners picking up the system there'll be an equivalent drop in those picking up the highly rated and essential older titles.
The goal, of course, is to pick up any fall-off in evergreen sales with positive results for all-new experiences.
Evergreen titles that were released in previous fiscal years have made up a larger share of overall software sales since the last fiscal year. So far this fiscal year, in the nine months between April and December, titles released in past years comprised approximately 60% of unit sales for first-party software (sell-through, see Note) in major regions. Looking at only the three months between October and December, evergreen titles comprised approximately 50%, due to strong sales of new titles.
Regarding sales trends for evergreen titles, consumers who newly purchase Nintendo Switch hardware often choose to buy an evergreen title as their second or third game. In addition, as Nintendo Switch enters its sixth year, we believe there will be a decrease in the percentage of first-time purchases in terms of future demand for hardware, compared to what we have seen so far. We expect to see more purchases of multiple systems within the same household, as well as consumers replacing a previous Nintendo Switch system with Nintendo Switch – OLED Model. In these cases, consumers often already own the evergreen titles, so we believe that the ratio of evergreen title sales will decrease unless there is a major increase in first-time hardware purchases.
On the other hand, we believe that both first-time purchasers of Nintendo Switch and those who already own the hardware are interested in purchasing new titles. Going forward, it will be important to offer not only a variety of hardware but to also strengthen sales of both evergreen and new titles.
Even before inevitable additional Nintendo Direct broadcasts 2022 is already looking busy for the Switch, with fresh reveals and dates for the likes of Nintendo Switch Sports and Mario Strikers: Battle League, and '2022' windows for games like Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope, Bayonetta 3 and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 2.
It'll be interesting to see how the line-up for the rest of this year, and of course 2023, shapes up in the coming months.
[source nintendo.co.jp]
Comments 78
well, thats interesting
Evergreen games are going to decline? Well why did you just announce a DLC for Mariokart 8?
Also to be honest, MK8 has not been out of the top ten in the uk since July 2020 and that was only because it was number 11 (yes i was sad and went through all the charts to find this, I think I'm bored at work)
The Switch is coming up to its 5th year anniversary, and is getting on in its lifecycle with still no sign of a hardware refresh or successor.
I'm not surprised if evergreen titles are starting to wane at this stage.
ARMS 2, please.
Modern game consoles still lack of cartoonish boxing games.
Nintendo: "We expect evergreen software sales to decline."
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: "no"
Just give a concrete release date for Breath of the Wild 2 and I'll be happy. Bayonetta 3 would be nice too.
I honestly hope so, the focus on ports/remakes and lack of new exclusives is really annoying.
@chipia too be fair making games takes years. Even big studios can't help that. Just look at Breath of the Wild 2, taking now 4 years to develop. With BOTW1 taking about 6 years. Ports and remasters don't take nearly as long to make, and are perfect to bridge the gaps between title releases.
Here's an idea, Nintendo....Lower the prices of older evergreen titles as a greatest hits collection for around 50% off their normal price. Instant rise in sales. You're welcome.
Wheres my new mario game then nintendo??, give me a reason to dust off that red brick under my tv
Actually have discounts of more than 33% then you'll see a rise in sales and gamers who can't afford or can't justify full price for these older titles and Wii U ports, would also get to experience and enjoy the titles.
FINALLY!!!
That's what I wanted to hear.
That is a rather bold statement, considering there is only one true evergreen game on the Switch, being Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. Nintendo's main issue is the short lifespan of each game they release, including the multiplayer-oriented ones.
ARMS and Pokkén Tournament DX both had the potential of a more long-term environment and an entry into the competitive scene if there were continuous content updates and balancing patches.
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate lasted for a while, but I think it's safe to say that Bandai Namco quitting on the balancing patches immediately after Sora came out was a mistake.
Splatoon 2 just doesn't have enough to warrant replayability (not to mention the end of Splatfests) and I'm growing somewhat pessimistic about Splatoon 3.
Animal Crossing: New Horizons suffered from the slow release, which staled the game long enough that people kind of just moved onto games like Fall Guys and Among Us by the time the pandemic started growing on people.
If Nintendo is worried about the success of evergreen titles, then they need to actually devote some development to those games to make them evergreen.
@Richnj They'd rather sell none than put a reasonable discount on old games.
That's good to hear and nice that they are giving us new titles again instead of ports such as Pokemon Legends: Arceus, Splatoon 3, Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Breath of the Wild 2, Bayonetta 3, Mario and Rabbids: Sparks of Hope, Mario Strikers: Battle League, Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Metroid Prime 4, and Switch Sports, now give us Golden Sun 4 please. It looks like Nintendo's first party focus this year are gear towards new titles instead of ports which make sense since all the anniversary craps are over now so no need for ports anymore until next year.
@Mykillvee this. They’ll sell more evergreens if they can be bought for $20 like they used to do. There’s quite a few that have passed me by for one reason or another and then it’s a couple years later and I’m like well I’m not paying $60 for a 4 year old game now.
How about they permenantly reduce the prices of their Evergreen titles, under the Player's Choice/Nintendo Selects labels? This will surely increase sales of older titles and it really is about time now. New games and new IP would be excellent.
@Bunkerneath to add value to nso
@CupidStunt why if people are still buying them at $40-$60?
Well, that's great to hear! I am totally pro new games (although Nintendo considers "ports" as new games also sadly)!
@ModdedInkling I don’t think they’re worried about it, just stating a fact that they’re reaching a high penetration rate and if they want to continue to push software sales they’ll have to release new games.
Do people really want more content for these ole games to continue for years? Or new games?
@Richnj if they can’t justify a 33% discount, or more if you buy used, then that’s on them for not being able to enjoy the game…not Nintendo.
There is a reason why Nintendo doesn’t do a player choice markdown anymore. It devalues the game. Copies would sit on shelves longer, then there would have to be package reprints for expensive cards. Their model might not be ideal for the thrifty gamer, but it’s making money.
@LUIGITORNADO Did you read the article? The clue is in the heading 😖
Maybe they will stop holding the release of new titles like BOTW2 with this financial analysis
@ModdedInkling What? 🤨 Have you seen the sales figures of Smash Ultimate, Odyssey, Botw, AC:NH? They are insane! 2-3 higher than their respective counterparts for, say, the Wii. Or any previous Nintendo system for that matter.
How very Disney of them.
You’re too focused on Nintendolife’s choice of headline. Slashing prices to sell more copies at…a lower retail will shift more units, but not increase revenue.
Nintendo has noted that evergreen titles have made up most of their revenue sales the last few years, and they need new games in the market to support the loss of revenue as those titles reach a higher penetration point.
They’re strategy of stepping away from player choice or select titles is mostly likely to retain brand value during a successful period.
Other gaming companies wish they could sell their 4-year-old titles for full price.
What they’re doing makes perfect sense. If gamers want a discount then they should be smarter about where they buy the titles. Try used market places.
@NintendoWife
High sales ≠ Evergreen. Continuous sales is what you're looking for, and the sales of many of those games you've mentioned have already slowed down.
@Deljo I wouldn’t expect to see another mainline Mario game for the switch now. I’m sure it’s well into development and will probably come out for the switch’s successor. Though I could be wrong and Nintendo might shock us with a new 3D Mario game or have dlc for Mario Odyssey
@LUIGITORNADO If discounts devalue the game, then doesn't the 33% discount also devalue the game?
And if we can dismiss the potential discount market, then why even bother launching games at £60. Why not go up to £70 or even £100. Increase the value of the games, and if there are people who can't justify that price (when they could justify £60) well that would be on them, right?
And I don't care about Nintendo making more money on titles they've already made bucket loads on. I care about more people getting to experience the titles. When gamers care more about the company's profits instead of people playing, we normally call them fanboyism.
I just want Nintendo Switch to OUTSELL the gameboy/gameboy color and DS and I'll be Satisfied! It will Happen!
@BiscuitCrumbsInMyBed You're probably right unfortunately. And again I'll buy the new console just so I can play it 😟
Still waiting for the first Nintendo Selects price drops. I'd like to see Splatoon 2 + DLC get a price reduction.
Or offer Splatoon 2 + Octo DLC all on a gamecard (aka definitive edition)(Japan got it November-ish)
@ModdedInkling How do you know? Of course they have slowed down compared to their release and might not all be in the weekly top 10 anymore. But I’ve been following Nintendo’s own bestseller listing (the one they update twice a year or so), and man, all those titles keep climbing. By millions. It’s funny, Nintendo calls them evergreen titles because they would know, but you know better.
@Richnj
It’s pretty black and white. Nintendo making money is good for the company and the gamers that enjoy playing their games.
They seem to price their games right around what the market expects, which is the 60-70 price. I’m sure of it was 100, we’d see the creep as well.
Targeted sales of 33% off for limited time on digital games is not a permanent slash to $20 for physical. It allows Nintendo to still retain value to their brand by not offering bargain bin prices that we’ve seen for shovel ware, like Carnvial Games, in a giant bin at Wal-Mart. It’s about the ecosystem, and Nintendo has done a pretty good job curating it on Switch, clearly, without the heavy discounts.
Idk. I don’t really think anyone deserves cheap and access to a product when it’s not a necessity for life.
It’s good to read that they intend to get several more years out of the Switch, yet don’t intend to rely on the evergreens for that. So we might get another round of top titles from them.
@LUIGITORNADO I agree. Don’t know where that thinking ever came from - that a fantastic product that remains in high demand needs to be dirt cheap after a while. To add another perspective, we’re talking about works of art. Some of the best games ever made have every right to be sold at a substantial price.
Release Kirby Airride 2. It's time for another top selling Kart racer from Nintendo. Show that you have more to offer than just Mario Kart.
Then get serious and release F-Zero already. With Wipeout in limbo because of Sony's shuttering third party support, there has never been a better time for F-Zero. Hell get a lot of electronic artists on board, and make a soundtrack for the ages. That was my favorite thing about the Wipeout series. You had techno (the actual genre, not the generic label people think it is.), House music, drum and bass, EDM (not a fan of that side of electronic music, but hey the more the merrier for everyone.), and more. I would love to see F-Zero stand up to its competitors. The bar is pretty high right now, but there isn't much to offer at the moment.
Then get out there and put more life into games that have been stagnating. I want a new entry in the Story of Seasons franchise that can stand on its own legs as much as Runefactory can. Pioneers of Olive Town was a let down, the Mineral Town remake was great, but they removed things that made it too easy compared to the original. They should have made those changes an option. Would have solved the whole rival marriage, animal death, and etc. arguments.
And Starfox! The forgotten battle for Atlas showed that Starfox actually CAN be interesting in the modern era. I think it's time they put Starfox into a new studios hands. Let someone passionate about its characters put life into franchise, but please move on from the N64 game. I'm tired of that getting remade constantly. Out of all versions of that game we currently have SNES, 64, 643D, and Zero. We don't need one more version of the already told game. Though I wouldn't mind a port of the 3DS version or Zero if it were remastered, but new entries need to stay original. I'm actually part of the fanbase that liked Assault. For all its flaws it deserves a lookback, especially with the multiplayer mode. I think they could make a whole game based off that, and put it online.
I expect Mario year after year, but its time for something fresh. I think the backlog of characters that are not currently being utilized would be a great thing for Nintendo to look into as a flagship title. This is why I'm thankful for games like Splatoon 3. It's nice to see things that aren't Mario doing well.
@ModdedInkling It's not a bold statement; they are making these predictions based off of market trends and sales numbers.
@LUIGITORNADO "It allows Nintendo to still retain value to their brand by not offering bargain bin prices that we’ve seen for shovel ware, like Carnvial Games, in a giant bin at Wal-Mart."
For this to be true, then previous Nintendo games that did get big discounts would have to have lost value. None of the Gamecube games ended up in the bargain bins.
" I don’t really think anyone deserves cheap and access to a product when it’s not a necessity for life."
Again, it's not about deserving it, it's about wanting people to experience them regardless. Sharing things you enjoy with others is a pretty standard feeling. IDK.
" It’s pretty black and white. Nintendo making money is good for the company and the gamers that enjoy playing their games."
They are one of the biggest gaming companies. Only beaten by the likes of Sony, MS, and tencent. They are most definitely making money. Is there a reason why billions of dollars isn't quite good enough? And even more is needed?
@CupidStunt If you half the price the sales would have to atleast double, or else they just lose money.
Its's fair if sales slow to a crawl. Like if they were only going to sell a couple thousand at full price but tens of thousands at half price.
But the evergreens are still selling millions a year. Chances are if Mario Kart 8's price was halved this year its not going to suddenly sell over 10million this year.
@Pokester99
What does that have to do with this article?
So, we finally get a new F-Zero title?
They won't discount their games more than they are already or make a selects line because that devalues their games and leads to people waiting for the games to go down in price. They would be making way less profit if they reduced their games prices. A lot of people in this comment section don't seem to understand this.
@Pokester99
This is about Nintendo focusing less on old games like mario kart and focusing more on games like botw2. Not about how you feel one line in an article one week ago was offensive because it gave out facts. Take your whining somewhere else.
If this is all true, they better have one whale of a E3 Direct. The Booster for MK8 will sell an incredible number of copies. It’s essentially Kart 8, Part 2. I would have loved to have a 9, but I’ll take this.
Outside of that, many of the other titles announced in the last Direct could be considered niche. I’m interested to see how sales of Switch Sports will be. Wii Sports was a pack in game. Will people by this as stand alone? I will, but I enjoyed the first two.
Breath of the Wild 2 can’t drive sales the next couple of years alone. It seems Nintendo realizes, but I guess we’ll have to wait a few months to see.
Good, drop them old game's prices then!! I want DK for $30 or less.
Other words Super Switch is coming soon.
Mario Kart 8D has just had a road map (no pun intended) of tracks being released all the way up to the end of 2023.
Splatoon 3 will no doubt have Splatfests and continuous updates lasting till...oh I dunno, end of 2023.
The Swicth is entering it's 6th year (jeez, where did that go!?) and the way to get another 5 years out of it is to not rest on laurels, but go again with what made the last 5 years so successful. Honestly, now is a good time to buy a Switch with confidence.
@Dr_Lugae There are many great games apart from Mario Kart. Many games don't sell as well now. Animal Crossing sales dropped, Xenoblade 2, Astral Chain, Paper Mario, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Yoshi Crafted World, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon Let's Go etc. They could all do with a price reduction. Also a price reduction of Mario Kart would devi items creat an increase in sales of the Online Expansion pack. 5 years in and some almost 10 year old games. 2 newer far more powerful consoles with some very strong exclusive games on the way..... I think it would be a great time to permenantly reduce prices of games on the ageing hardware.
@RudeAnimat0r
If you haven’t played it tropical freeze is worth 60 dollars. Heck even if you have played it I would still think about it.
@BloodNinja
I meant ironic when I said bold.
@NintendoWife
I'm going off of common knowledge on what is considered an evergreen game. Just look at a game like Grand Theft Auto V or Minecraft.
@Mykillvee We just bought 3 new Switches this past weekend after taking a long break from Nintendo. Upon loading the two up for my teens (who never bought anything digital) they were blown away at the prices of the old games. It would have been an insta buy on many of them if they were $20 or $30, but nope, all the older games were still $60. Crazy Nintendo doesn't lower their prices of old games when literally everyone else does.
@Richnj
Yes, they gained value a decade later, due in part of Nintendo dropping the entire strategy of reprints of evergreen titles at cheaper prices.
Whether you agree or not, the larger consumer market uses price to differentiate between quality. If Nintendo prices their games the same as shovel ware their perceived value could drop, affecting the overall brand.
Honestly. I don’t really see a negative. Even many of their third party exclusives are retaining value. It’s good for the company, their retail partners, and even third party partners.
Or maybe I should be able to purchase a Breath of the Wild at the same price of “LOL surprise movie night?”
Millions of people are still buying. Nintendo will adjust their strategy if they see it as a problem.
“We figured everyone who wants mario kart by now has mario kart…. Right?”
(And then mario kart 8 continues to outsell everything).
@ModdedInkling I mean is it though? This isn’t exactly a new trend in the market of gaming history!
@blindsquarel I don't know, I don't buy games for full MSRP hardly ever. I'm grabbing Elden Ring at launch, but I don't think I bought a single game for $60 in all of 2021. It's not a question og whether the game is worth $60, it's just not worth my $60. I've had to slash my gaming budget a lot as my wife and I are saving for a house.
I don't think Nintendo will ever realise that pricing "evergreen" titles mostly at full price, doesn't help either... Mario and Zelda are the ones who sell the most, true, but if you ditch 350£ for a Switch, plus 49.99£ and 59.99£ for a "evergreen" title, it hurts. No wonder new Switch owners won't buy these straight away. Money doesn't fall off from trees, Nintendo. Make bigger discounts on older software, and maybe your sales will not decrease.
@ModdedInkling Ok so only the top two “bestselling games of all time” qualify? Cause it you scroll down a bit there’s quite a few Switch games in that list already. MK8 at 7, AC:NH at 13, BOTW at 28 and Smash Ultimate at 29. All still going…
@Mykillvee we're about due a Switch version of Nintendo Selects, overdue even.
Good to know, Nintendo. Is Super Mario Odyssey 2 on the way then...?
Sounds like a Nintendo Selects line is starting to look good for the near future!
I very rarely pay $60 for a game. I can usually find them cheaper at retail, on launch day, a few months after launch, or failing that, the 2nd hand market. For many games, like old ports or very simple 2.5d games, half price would be too much for me, so I just skip them. If I feel like I missed out, which I won't, I can probably emulate these low effort games on my phone in a few years. With 2 gen old ports, I could probably emulate them on my phone now, but can't be bothered, I'm not that interested.
I swear this whole article just baits me. I don’t know what evergreen means and I am not sure Nintendo does either.
One big question I have is: how does Nintendo’s production compare to the past? I really thought we’d see 1-2 Nintendo made games per month but it seems like we are getting fewer games than ever.
@Moistnado everyone makes their choice and wanted games will cost more nor less. Your talk on cheap phone game try programming it's not as easy as you think.
@chipia What are you talking about?
We just had a Direct the other day with multiple new exclusives announced coming out in the next 6 months. The only remake is Advance Wars, and it's from the ground up, not a remaster.
In the first 3 months of the year we are already getting 2 monumental new games, Pokémon Legends and the most hype Kirby ever. What exactly are you expecting, a new AAA exclusive every month?
Maybe you should look at PS5 or Xbox that are feeding off of scraps from last gen to pad their lack of new releases. Switch has by far the most new exclusives launching in the foreseeable future. So why complain?
@koffing By ‘evergreen’ they mean the titles that people pick up when they buy a console now, regardless that they came out years ago. Games that are 4 years old and still sell millions every year. Precisely: MK8, AC:NH, BOTW, Odyssey, Pokémon, Splatoon, NSMBU and some that I am forgetting. But what is so hard to understand or debatable about that?
@SwitchForce I have almost every game ever released on Nintendo hardware, prior to Wii U on a hacked Wii, which is very easy to do. I have friends that play GameCube on their phones. I have played DS and GBA on my phone and took minutes to set up. If you get paid less than $30 an hour, it is more cost effective to spend 20 minutes figuring out how to get the games for free. The way to combat piracy is to provide a service that is convenient and value for money. $60 for a GameCube/Wii game encourages piracy. Just an opinion.
@Moistnado Not a great opinion, but do what you want. It’s not a great look that you brag about having “every Nintendo game ever”, like that’s something you’re entitled to. Things cost money to make, no one needs an unlimited amount of video games. I play like 10-15 games a year, some full price, some cheap, and pay accordingly.
So make a new nintendo selects range for 20 €, i would bye all the evergreen games, even the wiiU ports i already heave...
@NintendoWife I think I struggle with it because (1) I wonder about the translation quality (2) if it bleeds it ledes. Does this comment actually signal a change in strategy? i mean what are the major titles coming out this year? splatoon 3. Advance Wars. Botw 2. Actions speak more than words.
@NintendoWife I am fine with my 'look'. I am not entitled to every Nintendo game ever, I don't think that. I don't even want every game, it's just easier to download all of them than choose individual titles. Nintendo is also not entitled to my $60 for an old Wii game either. They have become anti-consumer with some of their pricing of old games, limited editions, and NSO. If they keep playing unfair, maybe I will do the same. Same as you, I only play so many games, the others just sit on my hard drive. I have not hacked my Switch...yet. I generally get an ok price on the 2nd hand market or retail sales. I like buying games, I like the boxes, I like encouraging Nintendo to make more of what I like, by paying for my favourite games. If Nintendo wants to stop piracy, the best thing to do is offer more convenience and value for money. I was just pointing out that piracy is very easy, probably easier than saving up $60 for an old port.
@Moistnado I must say I like the way Nintendo handles their old games - not the online rental services, but the careful, conscious remakes and ports. You got to admit that it does have an effect: As a result their old titles (and we're talking about masterpieces) remain relevant for generations, whereas many other developers' games are quickly forgotten. They refuse to adopt the "attention disorder" throwaway cycle of the industry, and I applaud that. A Beatles record doesn't have to be for free just because it's old. If it's great and there's continuous demand, Nintendo has every right to keep selling it.
@ModdedInkling thats a strange thing to say. MK8D the only Switch evergreen title?? Im guessing you dont follow their sales numbers. They have loads of evergreen titles. More than xbox one, PS4, Xbox series, and PS5 combined. Almost every single major first party game they release ends up being an evergreen. Botw, ac, mk8d, smash, poke sw/sh, mario odyssey, super Mario party, ring fit, splatoon 2, nsmbu:d, and several others have all been evergreens and almost all of them are still going very strong. Honestly Switch has the most impressive list of evergreen games of any system ever. And this year they are adding several more games that will undoubtedly be evergreens.
Its honestly kind of strange to see Nintendo saying they cant rely on evergreens when the industry has never seen such a display of evergreens as the Switch has. I hope what they are just trying to say is the next couple of years they are gonna get out a bunch of the smaller and put-off and hoped for franchises rather than just doing another round of all their evergreens or just sitting back and letting the Switch's loads of evergreen rake in the money. I think they're just saying they are going to be aggressive and keep pushing out lots of new games, which we are clearly seeing this year as 2022 is looking like by far the best uear for Switch games yet. Yeah their evergreens are going to break all sorts of sales records in the industry but it sounds like they are going to keep pushing the envelope and turn the Switch into something the gaming world has never seen before.
@LUIGITORNADO "Honestly. I don’t really see a negative. Even many of their third party exclusives are retaining value. It’s good for the company, their retail partners, and even third party partners."
Again, I can't help but notice a distinct lack of care for the customer here.
"Or maybe I should be able to purchase a Breath of the Wild at the same price of “LOL surprise movie night?”"
There's a £5 difference on their normal prices on Amazon. If we are using prices to gauge quality, then Zelda is only slightly better.
In other news, Nintendo has announced it is shutting down Wii U and 3DS online stores. If I were to suggest that Nintendo should heaily discount all their games on those stores to allow as many people as possible to buy up as much content as possible before it's all gone, would you support that?
@Richnj no. I see it as inconsequential. They’re just video games. They’re not a necessity of living.
@LUIGITORNADO "They’re not a necessity of living."
Neither is freedom, but you know.
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