Wall Street Analyst Warns Of Slowing Nintendo Switch Sales

Doooooooomed.

Incoming comments of how this guys is a troll and doesn't know anything about sales

Of course sales will slow down right now. It’s the off-season for games and this is on top of Nintendo having an admittedly slower year than the first. They’ll start to pick up come September, and once Smash Ultimate and Pokémon Let’s Go hit, instant boom.

Meanwhile the Switch is selling better and better each and every week in Japan. We know this because unlike America they release weekly sales figures LOL

@Knuckles-Fajita: I sincerely hope there's a Doom sequel with a similar title.

It sucks that stocks are so indicative of a companies success. Who cares. We all know it’s doing well, and we know nintendo has enough money to keep making hits. There’s nothing to worry about. It’s silly that corporations are expected to continually profit each period exponentially. Nothing can continue to grow forever. There’s going to be ups and downs, it doesn’t mean a company is doomed! Anyway, I’m no economist, but these investors and analysts can go concern themselves with something more important already ! End rant haha.

This year will have better sales than the first year. The analyst from the article is Patcher level.

A current Switch's library, 95% of which consists of Wii U ports & indies, is pretty lame, its start was great but didn't hold for par for the current year. If it wouldn't change soon the situation of Wii U may repeat (or may not due to hype).

I kind of understand what they are trying to get at, but they do seem to be ignoring the fact that there has been no major release on the Switch in a while that interests potential consumers. Yes, Octopath is a big game, but that is for a relatively niche audience and your average consumer wouldn’t buy a Switch for Octopath.

I do believe sales are going to explode this holiday season, with the powerhouses of Pokemon Let’s Go and Smash Ultimate coming out less than a month apart, and on top of it there are several evergreen titles like Breath of the Wild and Odyssey on the system as well for new people to justify their purchases.

Everything is perfectly fine, no need to be alarmed.

"it's the end of the world! all switches will be destroyed into million peaces, and Nintendo will be panicking of it. Nintendo is all dooooooooooom."

Smash Ultimate predicts otherwise.

Idk dude. Does the general casual gaming audience care about the admittedly pretty slow first-half of the year if you already had a Wii U? It feels like people didn't care about Nintendo during the Wii U era, so they see some games being on the system and just buy it because hey, new games to play. There's still at least one game to play per month, they're just not system sellers.

Time will tell how the Switch will fare this second year, but I'm still feeling optimistic.

I still enjoying it! I love my Switch! Awesome games too!

Are these guys totally unaware of how we are in the second half of the year with a new Super Smash Bros and Pokemon game releasing before Christmas?

And then Smash and Pokémon will come out.

We are getting Smash and Pokemon this year and another Pokemon and Fire Emblem next year. Metroid somewhere in there too.

Switch is gonna be fine. But it isn't new anymore, so sales will probably slow somewhat. But none of that Nintendoomed total BS.

well looks like phase 2 of Switch lifecycle is right around the corner

My cousin just got and literally only has fortnite so far, so free to play online games are definetly good for the system

@EightBitMan Like having even scummier business practices back then. Good times!

Well the guy simply put a too high estimation before: „..it would still need a 69 percent increase to reach Goyal's lower target.“ So he thinks NTDOY Stock will go way up! No doom here ..and not worth the article at all imo.

Incoming, a proper new 3DS successor and the new Nintendo Switch plus XL edition. Can't wait.

I bet after the 3DS’ first year no analyst would have called it being where it is today (hint: still on shelves)

The guy is a troll. He knows nothing about sales.

I am here for gaming news, not financial news from Wall Street.

These comments sure are salty. Get older it, children.

Nintendo releases their Q1 FY2018 results in a few days, so we'll see if Mr Goyal's skepticism was well-placed or not.

@Shepdawg1 off-season that have us Octopath Traveller, so I'm not complaining

@oji they've already far surpassed WiiU life sales, so I don't see a "repeat" happening.

Also, as if having indies is a bad thing. There is so much there to enjoy.

@bezerker99 nope.

People said Smash would save the Wii U. It didn't.

@Mogster 2 major things that make your point completely irrelevant.

1. Smash was also available on 3ds as a dual release, so no one had to buy a Wii U to play a new Smash game. So whatever those people were thinking, and how you think you have a counter point there, is meaningless.

2. The Switch doesn't need saving. It's outsold Wii U's lifetime sales. Smash will help it sell more units, that's an undeniable truth. But it will keep selling units regardless.

Its not doomed its a fantastic console

Are all products just expected to undergo a bell shaped sales pattern? Don't sales have their ups and downs?

Analysts for the consumable products industries primarily "serve" those who are mainly interested in short term rather than long term and thus the first drop is always a cause for "concern" as it will impact short term profits. Potential plans and prep for long term stability and future growth? They ain't interested.

Now to be honest I will admit, I do see Smash boosting sales but not to the levels some people are putting it to. Melee and 4 didn't help the GC and Wii U get out of their doldrums that much whilst I don't know how much Brawl helped Wii sales. Pokemon on the other hand has Mass Market Appeal and I foresee a massive sales Campaign before and during the releases this Holiday Season. Smash will also be involed for the Dedicated Gamer audience but I suspect Pokemon Lets Go will be fromt and centre.

Hardware is driven by software, and 1st party drives Nintendo. Of course Switch sales have slowed - the only 1st party games of note this year have been Labo, Kirby and Aces, none of which are system sellers. Zelda, Mario and Splatoon are system sellers - and so is Smash, so that's when sales will pick up.

Hardware is driven by software, and 1st party drives Nintendo. Of course Switch sales have slowed - the only 1st party games of note this year have been Labo, Kirby and Aces, none of which are system sellers. Zelda, Mario and Splatoon are system sellers - and so is Smash, so that's when sales will pick up.

Hardware is driven by software, and 1st party drives Nintendo. Of course Switch sales have slowed - the only 1st party games of note this year have been Labo, Kirby and Aces, none of which are system sellers. Zelda, Mario and Splatoon are system sellers - and so is Smash, so that's when sales will pick up.

Doomed doomed doomed!!!!

I'm surprised that it's still selling tbh, there's not been any new big must have games of late ... I do t know maybe it me lol

In the same year, Nintendo had a great idea :

"Let's put Kirby Star Allies, Nintendo Labo, Mario Tennis Aces and Go Vacation as awesome titles for 7 months of sells" o_O

Well done Ninty... :/

Lol Heck I don't care about if switch sales are High or low or freaking crummy dumb analysts just give me a Super Smash bros deluxe or limited edition,a GTA 5 limited edition,and Final Fantasy 17 Nintendo Switch edition and Kingdom Hearts 3 Special edition n we Good Nintendo that I can say you have made my Nintendo Switch dreams come True Lol.

I love my switch. With that being said this year has been almost empty

Y'know what. I think the Switch is going to be just fine. (Especially if Katamari Damacy, Super Monkeyball and Kururin Squash get released...)

The majority of the comments have completely misread this analyst's comments. They basically revised their insanely bullish, way outside of the mainstream positivity to being just hugely bullish. They're still predicting nintendo to way outperform general expectations, just not as much as they had initially thought. Opposite of a Pachter type.

”could begin to”
”could still go either way”
”stock has lost.....While it has begun to recover.....”
”perhaps”
”perhaps”

Hmmm...nothing about Switch sales...

@Mogster The Switch doesn't need saving imo. We've seen for instance that The Switch is still doing far better in its second year than Wii U was in its first year. There is nothing to worry about yet and even then I don't see anything changing soon. The Switch still has a lot going for it so I wouldn't be concerned.

Shares, their worst enemy is 'fear of the unknown'.
And at the moment not a lot is known about Nintendo other than they want to sell a shed load of Switches.

Unfortunately their new games list for the rest of 2018/2019 is sparse. As is the 3ds games list. I'm sure Nintendo are working on something but are they near to telling us? Until they do their shares will suffer.

I don't think the handheld (undocked) is the big seller that Nintendo hope it will be. It will sell a lot and more if the 3ds is not replaced.
But PlayStation type graphics are a big sacrifice to have a game on the go.

During the boom, people were saying 100 million Switch units would sell. That was always based on it having 5 amazing years like it had in its first year. And 5 boom years in a row was always unlikely.
Switch could still do 50 million and that would be healthy enough.

(gasp) its like everybody expected the Nintendo Switch to be selling highly as long as the Earth survives. Truly a shocking moment of events.

@Nincompoop This site covers all aspect of Nintendo Life - which includes general wellbeing of the company.

One word - Pokémon

You might need more than 1 first party AAA game in a year to continue selling consoles.

Come on guys, It's Good Interesting Game like Fortnite, Paladins, Fallout Shelter, Pokemon Quest. But the problem is Nintendo Switch out of stock or All People were not interested to afford to buy it. Maybe?

We need Metroid Prime 4 and Yoshi and Spyro the Dragon.

@Tyranexx To DOOM the Switch's fate ETERNALly would be a wonderful thing. I'm grabbing a front row seat to that apocalypse!

I love my Switch. And the past month I've bought Toad, which I never bought on my Wii U, Sonic, which is actually good, and one piece warriors 3.

So none of these works drive system sales, but with what's coming later, they should pick up again. Plus the Nintendo internet service will offer some games so that's something to look forward to.

@nolil I already have a portable device that can play those and is more convenient to carry: my phone.

This should be expected, it's been over a year and Nintendo's gaming output has slowed down until holiday 2018. I feel 2019 is when we'll see them do something as effective as the BotW and Mario Odyssey one-two punch.

For now, I'm excited about Starlink, SSBU, and Pokemon.

Didn't stop me from going out and buying a Switch a few days ago. Nor will it stop me from buying a few more accessories and continuing to buy physical and digital games.

Stock prices mean very little to gamers, and as Goyar himself noted, even with the low stock point, the Switch has sold like hotcakes.

Nintendo still has some hefty IPs to bust out that can move consoles. I would hold off on any doomsday predictions at the very least, until after we see how consumers respond to Lets Go and Smash.

As he also mentions, there are growing markets, particularly in online play and China. The latter especially should prove beneficial to all major game and console companies for the foreseeable future.

summer is slow for console games sales for decades. #most countries having warm summer mmmmmmmmmm my kids in pool every day lol

Switch sales will eventually slow down if Nintendo doesn't get on the ball and keep releasing quality first-party games that move the hardware. Labo doesn't move hardware. Smash, as popular as it is, doesn't really move hardware either. Wii U ports are not going to do it. And for all those people saying that a slowdown in sales is cyclical or normal during this time of year, let me remind you that the Wii was sold out for 3 years straight. The reason Nintendo sales tend to be cyclical is really due to the varying quality of Nintendo's software. The truth is that Nintendo can have its hardware sold out all the time if it wants to. It simply needs to keep releasing quality software. Games like Zelda 'BoW' and Octopath are the reason most people bought a Switch in the first place, but there are no more games like these on the horizon. Also, a 2D Mario game would be great as no game sells more hardware than 2D Mario. Sadly, the developers don't want to make it (Only 3D Mario).

What I'm seeing is that Nintendo is lazy. They can make great games when they want to, but once they become successful they go into cruise control. Think about it. We were told that Nintendo having only one device to support instead of two would mean more games being released, and yet Nintendo is releasing fewer games now than ever! There can only be one reason: Laziness. Clearly, there is a lot of rot inside this company that is going to have to be removed.

The problem is that this yeae there are a lot of big titles coming for PS4 & Xbox One. Games like BF5, Read Dead 2 etc will sell consoles. You can get a One S with a game for £200!

Hey wall street expert, you know what? I warn of slowing ps4 and xbox sales, i guess i'm an expert too then?

I think Pokemon Let's Go and Smash Ultimate will give Nintendo the boost they need but some more 1st party game announcements would be nice. Say for example some more Wii U ports.

@EightBitMan I'd take Nintendo over scum like EA anyday. People like you claim Nintendo has or has had dirty business practices, but EA is far worse than anything Nintendo has every done. Nintendo might be hard on companies, but EA treats it's consumers like absolute trash. They're just lucky the average consumer is too blind to see it.

@electrolite77 So I can remind NL that this is a gaming website, not Wall Street Journal.

@cfgk24 I want to hear about Mario, Yoshi, Kirby and those cute Nintendo things, not old men stuff like financial report.

@electrolite77
I can't wait for Smash Bros Ultimate to launch just to prove the "Smash Bros doesn't sell hardware" sentiment wrong (and to play the game, of course).

Why can't Nintendo make their own shooters, their own BR game, ect. LoZ bow looks amazing. Imagine what they could do if they put that effort into something else original and new.

They either add another port or make another Mario game or whatever character they reinvent yet again. I'm not sure why they don't have the best and brightest minds creating new things. For all the risks they take, they are not willing to make the right ones.

Nintendo needs a good original multiplayer game. Splatoon is on the right track but too kiddy. They need something in between.

@Thricemin
It's probably because those "brightest minds" at Nintendo have little interest in following/replicating western gaming trends.

@Nincompoop To do that, Nintendo Life would need some Real News to report. And there hasn’t really been any Real News to report since the lacklustre E3 presentation. Thus investors reasonably think Nintendo has nothing in store (if they do, why didn’t they reveal it at E3?), and stock prices decline.

Nintendo is in a big slumber for quite some time, since the Switch sold anyway. Maybe its slowing down a bit now, but it goes in high gear again when Super smash and Pokemon arrive. For the gamers it would probably have been a bit better if it slowed down a lot, because only then Nintendo wakes up and makes a effort again!

@Cobalt Bayonetta 2 is in my mind the finest action game ever developed. I've read, on more than one occasion, people claim the same status for Tropical Freeze among platformers. Captain Toad is just a pure joy to play. Nintendo also released them this year, and they make for outstanding additions to the library. Let's say it again so that maybe you'll begin to understand: Not everyone who buys a Switch owned a Wii U, so ports are new games for them. Not everyone who owned a Wii U bought every game, so ports are new games for them. And it would be an asinine business model for Nintendo to base its development around the thirty seven people who played every Wii U game instead of the millions, literally millions, of Switch owners who didn't.

@oji nah, it has too much momentum. And some big names haven't even come out, Smash, MK9, DK, Metroid, Pokemon.... .

I think this is Nintendo's first big test for the Switch system. I don't think the online service announcements and the slowed sales are a coincidence.

Nintendo really need to step up their game and improve their online service, their account policies, and their voice chat solution to better support the system going forward.

If they don't, players will continue to learn towards MS and Sony more.

"perhaps the short-term market is right about Nintendo (for a change) and perhaps it doesn’t grow in hardware sales."

Nothing really controversial there if short term means a month or two. But since he also kind of implies 4 to 5 years, not sure if I agree. For a console people know at least one mainline Pokemon will come to, people seem pessimistic on Switch. It
also ain't the Wii U, and it doesn't need "saving." People generally like Nintendo handhelds and Japan is still a solid market for the console, so it's got both of those factors going for it. On top of that, it's still selling well in the US. This analyst's guess is as good as ours, really.

To the people calling Nintendo lazy: I'm sure every Nintendo gaming team is hard at work developing what they hope will be some of the most fun and profitable games to come out during their release years.
They're spending every day trying to tap into multiple markets and genres with one question to answer: will people find it fun?
If yes, they'll slap a 50-80 dollar tag on it and dispatch it to stores after they've polished 99.9% of the bugs out of it.
I hold no ire towards a company that spends every waking moment how to deliver fun to me for what's in my wallet. Fair trade and knowing Nintendo is already hard at work on the next 3D Mario and Zelda, you know it'll be worth the wait.

@PanurgeJr The flip side is that not everyone who bought a Wii U bought a Switch and the more games they port over, the less likely it is that we support their new system (that’s 13.5 million people or about a third of their total console sales, realistically speaking - there’s no way they get anywhere close to Wii numbers).

Didn't Switch sales like double during/after E3 week at GameStop? Not sure why people think Switch sales are "slowing down"...

@Euler
The Switch will sell a lot more than 3× what the Wii U sold i.e. 40.5 million units. Lifetime Switch sales will end up at 80-100 million units.

I don't think people realize how well the Switch has sold, because it's selling a lot more than just 3× Wii U sales.

@westman98 If you score in the first 30 seconds of a basketball game, that doesn’t mean you’ll win 384-0.

@PanurgeJr

So basically you confirm that without the awesome WiiU games, the Switch has nothing to show ?

And a man like me, who supported the Wii U from start to end, my reward for that is to have nothing to play on my Switch ? o_O

Wii U games ported on the Switch should be ADDITIONAL GAMES on the Switch librairy, NOT THE LIBRAIRY, don't you think ?

@Flammy Yeah, seems like most people read the headline and just commented. No, not "everyone" but the comments indicate they didn't actually read what he said...

@Cobalt But they're not the library. The Switch has some fantastic games unavailable on Wii U, but you keep making up reasons they don't count to support the hot-take narrative you've invented.

Splatoon 2: just Splatoon 1.5.
Xenoblade 2: runs poorly.
Super Mario Odyssey: you don't like it (which is an incredibly arrogant reason to give, suggesting everyone who loves it is simply wrong)
Arms: you don't even give a reason, you just ignore it.

And stop with talking about deserving a reward from Nintendo. That's not how revenue-maximizing corporations work.

Well, at least as far as Japan is concerned, I think this says it all:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-29-2018-jul-16-jul-22.57711/

Switch titles occupy 26 of the top 50 spots, and 3DS titles occupy 6 entries as well. When was the last time that Nintendo controlled nearly 2/3 (or more) of the top 50 sales list in any country? With the failure that is the Wii U cleared out of the way, and Sony portables completely falling by the wayside, Nintendo is once again dominant in Japan. Of course, the results would be more tempered outside of Japan, but this clearly bodes well for Big Red.

Now to play devil's advocate for a moment... People here keep defending Nintendo's current financial situation by mentioning games that haven't released yet. "Switch will be fine, we just need to wait!" What about games that are out now? Octopath Traveler is great, and it's exceeding expectations, but as others here have said, it's not really a system seller. What is going to convince people to pull the trigger and buy a Switch right now, that had not yet been released to convince them back in December 2017?

...As others have said, the big draws will be later this year in the West. To their credit, Japan seems to have more options for their market right now- the top seller from the recent week is another entry in the 17-year old Taiko no Tatsujin series, followed by Octopath Traveler and Splatoon 2. Splatoon 2 in particular seems to be much more popular in Japan than outside, and the Octo Expansion did wonders for it.

So it's yet another Summer of a red light on new releases, in the red light, green light momentum of the Switch. I still think they could have kept last year's early and late momentum going if they had more big third party support (especially Western), which is steadily returning to Nintendo, to bolster them in between 1st party releases. They will still be successful either way, but their success could have been more runaway, compared to how the current situation is.

And none of this is to say anything about Nintendo still lacking a proper, fully fledged online infrastructure for Switch. It's now set to launch in September 2018 (so about a year of delays), which should present an area of growth. It's really amazing in hindsight that the Switch has gotten this far with just a patchwork infrastructure.

We'll have to see how much that online multiplayer participation is split up by the subscription fee... Paying for P2P connections is crooked, so I wouldn't pay for that. Hopefully Nintendo will change the model so that online multiplayer in P2P connections is free, while some of their network features will be what's locked behind a paywall.

@Euler
If you score 20 points during the first quarter of a basketball game, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that your final score at the end of the game will be well above 30 points.

The Switch sold nearly 18 million units during its first 13 months. I have trouble believing that the Switch will suddenly struggle to sell another 22 million units from April 2018 until its discontinuation in the mid 2020s.

@westman98 The N64 also sold well during its first year. It still lost very badly to the PS1.

@PanurgeJr Nobody is demanding a reward, I think we're just looking for a reason to buy a $500 game system. Thus far, the Switch is lacking in must-have titles. There's Mario Odyssey and maybe Smash (the lackluster E3 presentation didn't convince me, but they'll hopefully have more to reveal). If all they do is keep porting over Wii U titles, there won't be reason to buy it.

@Euler
The Switch is selling far better than the N64 ever did. The N64 sold <10 million in its first 13 months vs 17.8 million for the Switch.

There is no way the Switch will struggle to sell just 7 million units more than the N64.

@electrolite77
Sometimes I wonder how people think Nintendo is still in the hardware business if a franchise as big as Smash Bros isn't considered a system seller.

I recall people saying this same thing about other Nintendo franchises i.e. "3D Mario, Mario Kart, and Zelda didn't sell the N64/GCN/Wii U so they won't sell the Switch."
It's as if nobody learns...

@Mogster @Cobalt Sales say otherwise.

Smash Bros sales
Smash Bros Wii U - 5.34 Million
Smash Bros Melee - 7.09 Million
Smash Bros 3DS - 9.24 Million
Smash Bros Brawl - 13.27 Million

Super Mario sales
Super Mario 3D World - 5.78 Million
Super Mario Sunshine - 6.28 Million
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 7.41 Million
Super Mario Odyssey - 10.41 Million
Super Mario 3D Land - 11.96 Million
Super Mario Galaxy - 12.77 Million

Mario Kart 8
8.42 Million (Wii U)
9.22 Million (Switch)

Splatoon Sales
Splatoon - 4.93 Million
Splatoon 2 - 6.02 Million

Breath of the Wild Sales
Wii U - 1.08 Million (im one of those people! ^-^)
Switch 8.48 Million

im predicting that Smash Ultimate will do better than Smash Bros Wii U. it may not beat Brawl or 3DS, but it will sure do better on switch than Wii U.

i could do Mario Kart or Zelda series sales comparison. but none of the games has gotten a switch exclusive game yet. but the versions on switch did way better on switch ( not very surprising for BOTW sales to do better on switch than Wii U. Wii U was pretty much dead, and both versions of BOTW launched at the sametime. now Mario Kart 8 Switch beating it's Wii U version in a year, is pretty much Good News for Switch. it just proves that more people are buying these games more on Switch than Wii U.)

Bla Bla Bla..Every console Nintendo releases these clowns cry doooomed but they get proven wrong except for Wii U which i loved but anyways Switch is going to be fine

@Aozz101x
Smash Bros Ultimate will handily outsell Melee and will likely outsell Brawl.

Speaking of which, it looks like Splatoon 2 will approach 7 million units sold within its first year on the market. Pretty spectacular sales for a 3 year-old IP whose first entry was stuck on a failed console.

@EightBitMan Kinda funny how that video has Ubisoft, EA, and Konami laughing at Nintendo when Ubisoft has made a ton of money with Nintendo through their Rabbids franchise, EA has made a ton of money with Nintendo through their FIFA franchise, and Konami is a running joke of the industry that is no longer relevant.

To those saying that Smash doesn’t sell consoles because it didn’t “save” the N64, the GCN, and the Wii U, I want to point out that 3D Mario games were also on those consoles. So, going by your logic, Super Mario Odyssey did not sell Switches.

Also, having a lot of Wii U ports is really good for Switch sales. It would be a different story if the Wii U had sold better, but, since it did not, these are basically new and very good games to most people.

Guys we all want Switch to be a major success like Wii. But this won't happen if Nintendo stays greedy and lazy. 2017 was a great year but did 2018 Switch slow as hell line up meet your expectations?

People just pining everything on Smash. Those of us who do not play fighting games are done - why Metroid was so important.

Another Niche game (valkyria 4) and a budget Indie (Flipping death) is all on my list for Switch. Hold and wait for FIFA.

I have 7 AAA pre-orders not on Switch. Regardless of hardware sales 2018 is a bust on Switch.

It's always rough hearing stock market talk about entertainment products, because unless you're an investor yourself, it means absolutely nothing on a consumer or even fan level.

More of almost anything is always better, but if a company is doing well enough in sales to 1) Appease the big shareholders and 2) Can afford to make QUALITY games and consoles at their current pace or faster, then it's all good.

@dimi remember the overprice Fire Emblem Echos DLC? remember needing two more amiibo to play amiibo festival 4 player multiplayer? aren't those Nintendo's greedy plans too?

So, there is one guy predicting something that he is not very sure of, and Nintendo Life publishes an article about it. Journalism AAA level.

@JayJ I mean, you're not wrong, but... SSBU isn't something everyone is looking forward to. I'll probably borrow a friends' copy and try it a bit but smash was never something I liked to play. Riding on one title isn't what we would call a solid forecast.

That isn't to say that these forecasts make any sense whatsoever though. The Switch is getting a metric ton of big great titles in the second half of 2018, so it's not in any sort of trouble.

@electrolite77 Mario Kart 9 isn’t coming out on the Switch, so you can cross off that one (and it’s a very big one). But you’re right, maybe Yoshi and Fire Emblem will be system sellers this time around and they can just take the Wii U owners for granted.

The point is that first year sales are not directly proportional to lifetime sales. From the past two cycles, first year sales ranged between 7% and 29% of lifetime sales.

http://oyster.ignimgs.com/wordpress/stg.ign.com/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-07-at-10.17.38-AM.png

I would put the Switch towards the higher end of that range, since it was heavily frontloaded with top tier titles in 2017 (compared with only one for 2018).

It's funny that people take this the same as a PS4 fanboy claiming that the Switch sucks. Lmao! This is not an attack on the console!

sells will be huge with Smash, and maybe some unannounced titles like a Mario Maker that works with Online service

Switch sales are "slowing" in July 2018? OK, got it. Hold on while I lower my expected lifetime margins on all my investments during their respective industries' slow seasons...

@Rontanamo_Bay the last bit is about improving share prices. The analyst feels as though those factors will drive up share prices, not so much Switch sales. Note that he thinks that, not me...

Once Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros. release sales will pick up again. I'm not worried.

They are going to need a Switch Plus that has pascal tech in it that can push more resolution and quality.

Sales will pick back up in October to December, then they will all praise the Switch again

Is this guy a weatherman as well?

@Euler
Wii U sales were "frontloaded" because it was a failure and was discontinued 4 years after launch. The Switch isnt selling poorly nor will it be discontinued 4 years after launch.

In fact, the Switch will likely receive revisions and price reductions to extend its life, much like with previous Nintendo handhelds.

Nintendo as a company isn't just the Switch; I'm sure Nintendo and their shareholders are banking on Mario Kart Tour to generate a lot of ancillary revenue and provide a substantial boost to Mario Kart 8 DX sales.

I don't think there's too much to the prediction. Stock never has ANYTHING to do with hat's actually happening in real life. If anything, most people should ignore it-the only thing it matters towards are shareholders who would be happy to gut the market and ruin the reputation and product quality of the company they own if it meant short term gains, rather than focus on long term.

I don't see anything killing Switch's momentum. Summer is slow for the Switch, in a time when it seems to be as slow for every other system-except maybe PC, but I don't think you can count Steam sales.

The Fall will be when the test will begin. Again, not worried, not going to bother worrying since there's no immediate Switch killer popping out. I'm more concerned about all of the multiplats (and that one PS4/XB1 exclusive) fighting for dominance in the public eye. Did I miss something, or was the latter half of the year always the Thunderdome for game releases???

@Blizzia Okay well we also have a new Pokemon game coming out before Christmas and I guarantee that will sell like crazy.

Nintendo needs some more big IPs to keep new console buyers coming. I am still waiting for a current gen Earthbound, Wave Race, Donkey Kong, Golden Sun, Kid Icarus, Fatal Frame, Advance Wars, Pikmin 4, a new Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles and Super Mario RPG 2.

@JayJ As I also pointed out: There's a metric ton of quality games coming, these analysts are dumb as <REDACTED>

Looks like NINTENDO's stock fall is due to ONE HEDGE FUND guy...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/sac-alum-plotkin-makes-a-massive-short-bet-against-nintendo

here's the article for anyone interested.

There’s a new villain in the world of Nintendo Co.

Gabriel Plotkin, head of New York hedge fund Melvin Capital Management, has accumulated a $375 million short bet against the Japanese game maker, according to regulatory filings. The former star trader at SAC Capital Advisors accounted for as much as 7 percent of Nintendo’s daily volume in recent weeks, contributing to stock declines since May that have stunned analysts.

Investors have been baffled by the sudden swoon and Plotkin’s position may add to their concerns. The stock’s poor performance has dominated coverage in the financial and gaming press, and discussions on social media, with questions raised about whether long-term shareholders are losing faith in the outlook for the Switch game console. Shares fell as much as 27 percent from their peak in May.

“With Nintendo, there were too many longs and now they’ve exited and started shorting the stock as well,” said Atul Goyal, an analyst at Jefferies Group.“The flows have changed.”

Plotkin’s fund was short 1.1 million shares, or about 0.8 percent of Nintendo’s outstanding stock, according to the latest filing with the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It’s the largest such trade against the company since at least 2013, according to Bloomberg data. The hedge fund has been steadily increasing its position until last week, though it trimmed slightly on July 24.

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Plotkin started his firm in December 2014 with the blessing and financial support from Steven A. Cohen, the controversial founder of SAC Capital. In 2015, Plotkin’s first full year in business, Melvin Capital returned 47 percent, putting him at No. 2 on Bloomberg’s global ranking of the top 50 hedge funds with more than $1 billion in assets. It has maintained that strong pace in recent years through bullish bets on Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc.

Melvin Capital, which has about $7 billion in assets, would not explain its thesis for shorting Nintendo, with Plotkin and Chief Operating Officer David Kurd declining multiple requests for comment. The hedge fund employs a "bottom-up, fundamental" process for identifying stocks to buy and short, according to U.S. regulatory filings. It focuses on consumer companies and owned about 70 stocks including Electronic Arts Inc. and Twitter Inc., according to the latest filing in May.

The downward pressure on Nintendo shares has sowed confusion among executives, investors and analysts. The Switch became one of the fastest-selling consoles in history after its release last year, quintupling the company’s annual operating profit. Many analysts were bewildered when shares began dropping sharply in May, leading to the biggest gap in a decade between brokerage targets and the actual stock price. Goyal called the declines “shocking” at the time.

Nintendo shares closed at 37,900 yen Friday, down 8 percent for the year.

The chaos peaked in June during the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3), when shares plunged 11 percent in two days. Analysts pinned it on a poor lineup of Switch titles at the show, but Nintendo executives hit back, blaming analysts for being short-sighted. Regulatory filings show Plotkin increased his short position on both days after E3 and continued short-selling in the following weeks. Melvin Capital accounted for 6.1 percent of volume on June 22 and 7 percent on July 17, according to the filings.

Not all investors are selling, with Nintendo’s largest shareholder Capital Group has used the market rout as an opportunity to increase its position. Shares rallied — briefly — after it disclosed the purchases.

It’s not clear how long Plotkin will stick with his short position. Hedge funds tend to make brief bets, in part because borrowing shares for shorting can be expensive over longer periods. On average, Melvin Capital has held stocks for about 8 months, according to all filings since 2014 analyzed by Bloomberg. The analysis did not include stocks it may have bought and then sold in the same quarter and also excluded options. The fund does not disclose how long it holds it short positions for.

Nintendo will report first quarter earnings on Tuesday after the market close. Analysts estimate revenue will rise 21 percent from a year earlier, while operating profit will jump 58 percent.

@Dezzy I agree with you!

@Mogster making a 3DS version right along with the Wii U version didn't help sell any Wii U's - that's for sure.

@Nincompoop Ah! You should watch "The Cat Mario Show "
It's exactly that! 😊

From what I have heard, the Switch should comfortably lead the hardware market during the supposedly slow summer months. Some will be quite surprised how well the Switcg sells, particularly in relation to PS4/XB1 sales.

And I warn of declining interest in Wall Street Analyst's opinions.

I feel this headline is somewhat misleading.

The guy is mulling over investor reactions to Nintendo's latest numbers and announcements more so than warning about slowing sales.

@westman98 A bit presumptive to assume that Mario Kart Tour will be successful in the first place, let alone that it will sell Switch systems (see: Super Mario Run).

@electrolite77 There's never more than one Mario Kart game on a Nintendo console, even on the ones that are really popular or long-lived (DS, Wii, 3DS). It's because they're substitute goods; the next one will not sell as well as the first one. So they put the development costs towards a new installment on the next system. That's how it's always been. The fact Mario Kart 8 DX is continuing to get new content (and most certainly will need some for when the subscription fee comes out) only confirms this.

@Euler
I am going with the assumption that Mario Kart Tour will be a F2P game and not a premium title like Mario Run, so I find it quite unlikely that the game will flop, even if the game doesn't replicate the insane success of Pokemon Go.

Fire Emblem Heroes and Animal Crossing Pocket Camp were quite successful, and Fire Emblem /Animal Crossing are both smaller IPs than Mario Kart.

Has no one ever heard of NPD and their monthly report of video game sales? The Switch has already slowed, especially in America.

@westman98 the monthly NPD reports have PS4 comfortable leading it actually.

@pika677
I was referring to the summer months (July, August).

PS4 handily outsold the competition in April and May thanks to God of War, which looks to be one of the biggest first-party games ever published by Sony. It will probably outsell the competition in June thanks to the Days of Play sales, though the margin won't be nearly as significant.

Switch sales definitely aren't slowing; it's just that PS4 sales are higher due to God of War's massive launch (and to a lesser extent, Fortnite).

@electrolite77
The idea that a hugely popular game is "too hardcore" to be a system seller baffles me greatly.

@Aozz101x You're damn right they are!