Tatsumi Kimishima Expects Nintendo Switch To Sell "About As Well" As The Wii

I dont think 100 million is out of the question.

Will it sell gangbusters again or go down like the Wii U?

Find out next time on Dragon Ball Z!!!

I hope he's right, but I'm keeping my expectations on check. I definitely think it will easily outsell the Wii U, but Wii-level sales is a bit of a bold target to say the least.

You don't just sell that many consoles like it's nothing. I'm going to guess there's some nuance of what he actually said that's not being reported.

Perhaps a little optimistic at this point. Don't get me wrong I think it will sell fairly well; I think it will pass the 40 million mark and maybe even reach the 3DS' numbers.

But 100 million? Maybe a bit early to tell. The Wii was partly down to luck as well as reading the market (just like everything else) but those moments come by fairly rarely.

Dear, Mr. Satoru Iwata from Heaven. Please watch over Nintendo and bless Mr. Tatsumi Kimishima with great business strategies. Thank you.

Wow that's optimistic. The Wii offered a revolutionary new way to play video games, and was relatively cheap. The 2 elements combined captured the general publics attention.

The Switch is neither revolutionary nor cheap. The hybrid console is unique, but not revolutionary.

Drop the price enough and anything is possible...

Overconfidence.

PS4 has managed 50m. 3ds has managed 60m? I think the era of 100m+ sales is possibly over.

Uh oh. Sounds like all eggs, one basket with Nintendo right now.

Recipe to boost until 100 million ++ :
Special color from Nintendo machines for Switch + Price cut + Switch spare part sold separately + AAA Nintendo games + Longer battery live = BOOOSTT...!!!

It could happen. I don't see why not, potentially speaking. If Nintendo keeps marketing and supporting the Switch right it may sell as much as the Wii. During the first part of the Super Bowl commercial add the Switch was advertised as a handheld. They need to keep advertising that way imo.

Hahahhaha they had the same thoughts with the Wii U !

Anyway ps4 + Xbox one + Wii U sales all together are still less than 100 million ... maybe they will reach Xbox target with switch ... 20 million ... nothing more

Nope!

I bought 3 Wii's - at this point I have Zero desire to buy 1 Switch.

Maybe Black Friday 2018 I will pick up a Switch to add to my collection.

"But why sell 100 thousand units when we can sell..."

"... 100 million units?!"

Go big or go home!

It's possible it could do twice as good as the 3DS, right? Not massively likely, but it's possible.

That's way too optimistic. It will probably outperform the Wii U and possibly the Xbox One but not the PS4.

I do think the Switch could possibly sell 100 million if the Switch becomes the next iPad and the public reception to the Switch is good, but probably a bit early to say right now.

Switch games getting played by big Youtubers or similar, as well as Nintendo adventuring the Switch well enough, 100 millions might be possible yeah.

@alasdair91 the wii took around 8 years for that figure so there's still time for ps4 and 3ds yet. I doubt the latter will reach those numbers following switch release but PS4 is still selling very well even with pro and VR shortages.

I bloody well hope so. The Switch has the potential to render the competition obsolete due to its in-built portability and flexible control options. It just needs the blockbuster third party games. At the time, I was amazed that the Wii got as much third party support as it did considering that developers needed to make games from scratch for the underpowered Wii. Frankly, I was surprised at the almost complete lack of third party support for the Wii U considering that the Wii U was much closer to the competition spec-wise.

While it's hard to predict just how successful the Switch could theoretically be given the launch line-up, once people start taking their Switch units to play with their relatives and friends, this thing could potentially explode. And the more successful it is, the more games we'll get, which is all I care about really. I love the idea of having a library of AAA games in my possession stored in cards around the size of SD cards.

Before aiming for Wii levels of sales, they should aim to sell more than the Wii U and Gamecube did. The Wii was a lightning flash, unfortunately, Nintendo's consoles have been selling less and less each gen.
He sounds overconfident in this.

Keep in mind he knows what the plans are in terms of software. He would know if an exclusive Pokemon, Monster hunter, metroid, fZero etc are planned or in the works. Yes 100 mil is a lofty goal but he may be basing it on what WE don't know yet

Not happening unless the price drops to €250 or below and some serious third parties that haven't said much yet start showing up. Even then it's highly unlikely, they'll jump at the first sign of trouble, sure Nintendo did it with the Wii U. Switch will have 30 million lifetime sales if it's lucky. They're chasing the proverbial Wii dragon and that market is long gone.

@gaga64
The Wii was €270. Switch is only €30 or so more.

I'd like to think that, eventually, families will decide to get more than one switch. Like if a new Pokémon game came out and I had to fight my wife on who gets to play first/now, I'd be going out and getting another one.

I believe this could be potentially clever on nintendo's part. The price would have to drop first though.

@AlexSora89
Very funny.

Well, well, well, somebody's got some high expectations! Would love to see that happen but I doubt it'll come to be. But surpassing WiiU numbers? Well, that should be easy.

I'm thinking it might be a relative success, something in between the N64 33 million and the SNES 49 million units. Even with Pokémon, Smash Bros and the works, the 3DS failed to achieve that 100 million mark.

100 million is too far-fetched, in traditional Nintendo fashion of course. They believed in the same numbers for the Wii U. That's what happens when you live in a bubble with no idea of what the market is and what your competition is doing.

On the other hand, I think surpassing the Wii U's lifetime sales could be achieved within the first year easily.

I think they can do it. The Switch is a very cool looking device, that a lot of people are going to want to own, regardless if they're hardcore gamers or not.

lol no

@BLM That is already happening. My wife and I have bought one each. We want to be able to play multiplayer on the go with a screen each and online with each other when we're not together. I personally don't think Nintendo has marketed that idea enough! The super bowl ad touches on it though.

Sell better than wii u no doubt, but the wii was so good because it was cheap and fun

I'm pretty sure the wii was about £100 cheaper from what i remember. If it was the same price as the wii or even £200 I'm sure it would be an impulse buy for everyone.

100 million. I wanna drink what he's drinking NOW

@BLM I think once it's been out for a while they might sell the tablet on its own separately,no dock and no Joy-cons.This will be especially handy for those who have already bought an extra set of Joy-cons.They would be able sell the tablet on its own for less than half the current retail price for the whole unit going by the individual prices of the dock and Joy-cons.I think they might take this approach for future upgrades too.The more powerful Switch + whenever it comes could be sold just as the tablet for say under $150.If they take this approach then it could do very well,

Sorry, bud. Not happening.

Never has the sarcastic "good luck" ever been more appropriate.

Any chance it was a translation error?

If he said Switch would sell "more like" the Wii than the Wii U it would only need to hit 60 million.

101 - 60 = 41 difference
60 - 13 = 47 difference

60 mil is doable, that's what 3DS has already done. Switch, SwitchTV for adults in the west (no screen, all in the dock, $149 - think $99 Wii Mini but w/ internet), SwitchBoy for kids (no TV out, no fan, no detachable Joycon). Nvidia Shield has 3 versions, Switch probably will too. Add them all up, 60 mil.

If they'd lower the price of at least the peripherals, they might have a shot

I consider myself optimistic about Nintendo's future, but 100 million units in this day and age just doesn't seem realistic, at all.

@Mart1ndo
Hopefully so, I love attempting to make NLers laugh.

Wii cost £180 and included game, Switch costs £280 and includes no game. Wii could get a free game bundled with a controller, Switch you cannot get free game bundled with controller.

I think that tells you enough about whether Kimishima's expectations are achievable or not.

Nah, but it is always good to have a goal. I hope they do.

I'll be impressed if it clears 50 million lifetime.

Does this mean that it will take 4+ years to get to that point at the current production rate?

All joking aside, I hope they do get there. I was never surprised about the Wii's success. It had a lot going for it. I think the Switch's position on the market being a jack-of-all trades will lead to great success. A couple of years ago I started playing my 3DS more then the Wii U and not because the Wii U has no games. IMO, the Wii U lacked quantity but had plenty with great quality. I started playing more 3DS because it was convenient for me to play in short burst or off of the TV. It appears that the Switch will offer both of those features plus more!

this doesn't make any sense, he expect to sell as much as the wii but he talks about a potential 3DS successor?
this would only work if seid successor was another switch version...

I think he's right, personally. The marketing and messaging have really been on point. Hopefully the list of games confirmed will grow quickly after launch.

I'm sure the Switch could be successful if Nintendo play their cards right but 100 million sounds almost absurd. Let's just see what happens...

Is it possible? Yes, yes it is. Is it likely? Ehh...

But, judging from the preorders for Switch, it could be very successful. For Wii's level of success though, it will need a price cut and a pack-in over the course of its life. A killer game lineup would help too.

@peeks There was different management back then. Know you deal with Kimishima!

I think the Switch has a fantastic opportunity to really take off. Once it's out in the wild and in the hands of gamers everyone will be able to see first hand how good this concept is. Imagine your sat behind someone on a bus tram or train, you're playing a crappy flappy bird clone on your phone and they're rocking Mario Kart 8 Deluxe on their Switch. I'd be so jealous I'd have to get off at the next stop to pick one up. That said my preorder has been in since November so I'll be the guy playing MK8 😀

I believe it. I'm actually thinking the same thing. Even my Line Manager is interested and that's saying something.

@Raylax wii U SOMKING

Maybe had they launched at 199 not 299. Casuals won't spend 299 plus a game on the switch and the wii was the casual market machine

Tatsumi Kimishima is in for a big surprise then...

I think it has the potential to sell exceptionally well if it's handled right—as did the Wii U to a degree too—but I'm not fully confident Nintendo will manage that feat. There's already too many little worries and concerns I personally have around the system, its games, and its services, which I don't trust Nintendo to properly address/fix and I expect all these things will affect how other people see it too, which will go to the overall sales at the end of the day also. We'll see . . . but if it doesn't at least utterly blow the Wii U's sales numbers away then I say we only have Nintendo to blame—it all rests on Nintendo. . . .

Easily going to......

I can say with confidence it should beat the Wii U life time sales but the Wii well that of a overstatement

and here i was thinking Kimishima was the level headed, realistic guy amongst the top brass at Nintendo after he correctly warned that the Wii U would be a failure.

There's no way Switch is going to sell Wii numbers in today's market at its current price. If it reaches 3DS numbers that would be amazing.

A bold statement indeed. I'm not as confident, but if anyone can surprise me it's Nintendo.

Eesh!

Still, have to give them credit for Big Bold Thinking. That's nice to see at least.

Because it's a twenty year platform with bi-annual iterations.

I'm more interested in expectations about when this first version will become "not 100% compatible".

I guess this is better than when Iwata thought the WiiU was going to outsell the Wii?

It tells me a few things. One, it's possible he's just lying through his teeth to investors to get them thinking optimistically and then will "revise downward" over the years.

Or, they're expecting a very long shelf-life on this product, so over the 7-10 year run it will sell that much.

Or they're REALLY going all-in on the 1-2-Switch idea, that party gaming is back and better than ever, meaning they still don't understand that Wii wasn't a popular selling game console, it was an exercise fad. If it's this, I fear they'll, like the Wii, abandon more traditional games in favor of making everything all about quick-play multiplayer games, including Kart and Arms. A concept that in the all-Japan echobox they hear as how everyone wants to play, but will bomb disastrously outside Japan.

Or they just think really highly of the value of a hybrid.

I can see big numbers, but even if you take the entire 3DS install base, add the WiiU install base, you're still under 80M, and much of that is really overlapping customers. 80M would still be huge in terms of numbers. But if they're looking to take, even if we assume no overlapping custoemrs, that full install base, they're looking to add another 50%? That's pie in the sky dreaming. Either they don't understand that Wii was just a fad, not a popular product, or they think they're recreating a new fad, or they know, and just need to sound good to investors (or are parsing wording as @erv says to mean "more than just these skus" )

he probably meant to say wii u. but he got confused because he thought the gamepad is just an add on for the wii!

Somebody has been drinking milk of the poppy. More chance of making a go of it on mobile with there games than 100 million switch sold. Best they could hope for is GC numbers. The fact that he is talking about a 3Ds replacement won't help their switch sales either

Kimishima was one of the few people at Nintendo who correctly predicted the Wii U's failure.

100 million units is quite a stretch. I'd say about 20-40 million units at max. If it does reach 100 million, that'll be amazing for them.

I think it could sell as well as the 3ds, maybe even better but certainly not as much as the Wii. Way too optimistic.
The PS4 has been selling incredibly well and hasn't hit that target.

Sounds VERY hopeful to idealistic levels.

I mean, would be great if he's right, but I'm in the crowd that believes it will be 40 Million... max.

Where is the game that will sell that many consoles? WiiSports sold the Wii. I haven't seen anything in the first year that showcases the new controllers in anything other than gimmicky ways. There are things people will play once or twice...but there' s no Wii Bowling. Zelda is a big title for gamers...but how many will stick with the WiiU version?

I hope it sells even more than the PS2, although it's not likely. Just forget that stupid 3DS successor idea, bring Pokémon and Monster Hunter to the system and we will see this console selling AF

@gaga64

Having a portable home gaming console that provides an unprecedented level of versatility and also enables multiplayer local co-op, without the need to split the screen or the need to pay for an online connection isn't revolutionary? I couldn't disagree more.

Well i suppose you have to start with optimisim right?? I will say this is a different market and the Wii was at the right place right time for the blue ocean strategy, tech has evolved since then with the introduction of mobile etc etc. For a high number such as that you need a combination of price point and hardcore gamers from different tastes in addition to hot buzz, marketing and appeal and casual friendliness. I'll keep expectations in check as Ninty may need to approach the $200 baseline along with a built up library of titles to really take off in the stratosphere of going above 40-50 million. PS4 is at that prime stage where a mix of diverse software, price, marketing is propelling them through the roof. When that mix is in place word of mouth also becomes a driving engine. They stand at over 53 million units sold in 3yrs 2months ahead of PS2 numbers hardware and software wise with exclusives releasing now into the next couple of months as currently known. That's the mix of wave riding you need. My hope is expectations is for Nintendo to do well and for the success of Switch to be cemented but not judged against if they can reach a tall order of 100mil. 40-50mil should be more than considered a successful system especially with multiple players in the gaming market.

People are saying that is a mis-translation. Kimishima was saying that the Nintendo Switch have the potential to sale as much as the Wii not that he expects the Switch to sale like the Wii.

No way, people to busy buying phones and crap now a days.

I think the NS will sell closer to Wii U than Wii numbers. They're trying to create their own paradigm shift in the market, and they have a huge uphill incline to achieve that... Which they're only making steeper by marketing the NS as a "home console you can take on the go" (or in other words, a portable Nintendo PS4) instead of a "mobile hybrid that can handle everything." (Sans high end PC games.)

I'm not convinced that Nintendo really has their marketing chops back. (Although their meme potential is... very promising.) I think they'll flub the advertising at first, failing to differentiate it enough from the competition, due to the home console comparisons. They'll have a strong first 2-3 months, then have weak or middling sales until the holidays. A 3DS-like price drop will happen this year if the sales are weak enough, and maybe in another year if post-holiday sales haven't been sufficiently boosted by the coming catalog and memes.

By two years from now, the NS could become quite the powerhouse, so it will come into it's own at that point, if not next year.

「Ｗｉｉ程度の販売になる可能性がある」との見方を示した。

google translate this as

There is a possibility that it will be on sale on the order of Wii.

Unlike the wii the switch will probably appeal more to people who will actually play games that aren't wii sports. I don't think it will sell as much as the wii did but at least the software sales will probably be better

I'm almost positive this won't happen. The Wii mostly sold units in such volume because of its price and one killer app. The Switch is neither cheap nor has a Wii Sports. If they happen to add one or both of these to the mix, it's still going to sell under Wii numbers because tablets were a joke in 2006 and they aren't now.

But as usual, I want to be proven wrong and shown up as a cynic so do it up, Nintendo!

Right now, with the price it is and the SKU available? No chance. Don't get me wrong, I love the Switch, I was at Hammersmith for the event and I've had mine on pre-order since the minute Amazon made them available. But as it stands right now, 100 million aint happening.

That said - I can see a family of Switch consoles, at different price points, in the future. If they market it right, and get different configurations out there, then maybe it might do something close to that. Time will tell.

It's nice when you believe in fairies...

The 3DS/Wii U era made it more apparent than ever that the overlap between those who buy Nintendo handhelds as well as their home consoles isn't really that large. You get both of those audiences on the same platform, mostly avoid the pitfalls that (almost) killed the 3DS and murdered the Wii U, and offer some cheaper iterations/upgrades down the road? The Switch has the potential, certainly. It'll be up to Nintendo whether it lives up to it. Without a killer app like Brain Training or Wii Sports to sell it though, I see landing somewhere between the 3DS and GBA in lifetime sales.

No chance, if you ask me. I'll be very surprised if this takes the market by storm like the Wii did. The Wii was something entirely different and never before seen. The Switch might also have something never seen before but at it's core it's still a handheld, and handhelds aren't new. Not even the Joy-Con's motion capabilities are new, because it carries on where the Wii left off. The HD rumble might be a remarkable step forward for gaming but not in the same way Wii's motion controls were. They don't even have a pack in that will sell the concept like Wii Sports, and it's nowhere near as cheap and affordable which boosted the interest and attainability of the Wii significantly.

I hope I'm wrong and hope it does sell that well, but I don't see it right now. Maybe if this had come onto the market 10 years ago before iPads and tablets came out people may have been blown away by it. Because it comes after it's always going to be compared. In fact it's already been compared for load times by My Nintendo News which is pretty unfair to say the least.

I think 3DS sales numbers is a more achievable target and that may well actually happen. Kimishima is either completely deluded about the market he's in or completely underestimates just how big the Wii was and why. Only the PS1 and 2 have sold more and you'd think based on that, the PS3 and 4 would be just as popular but they haven't achieved anywhere near that level of success.

@alasdair91 IIRC, PS4 is selling just as fast as the PS2 currently (150 million lifetime), this ''generation'' is far from being over. Give it some time, it'll reach the 100 million eventually.

Wii sports is responsible for selling 100 million units from what I can tell. It wasn't first party Nintendo games. First party Nintendo games are extremely important as the Wii U showed with lack of very many, but if the switch wants to sell 100 million it has to create something that people who haven't played a video game in a while (or only play mobile games) see and want to play. I don't think 1-2 Switch has that power...

Oh buddy, let's focus on getting past 20 mill again first. We can discuss 100 mill in a few years, depending on how Nintendo handles the system.

Wasn't there some article on here months ago where it came to light that folks inside Nintendo were also predicting Wii-like sales numbers for Wii U before it released?

At 330 it would probably be an accomplishment if it even reached 3ds numbers.

I will predict less sales than the Wii U. All the same issues are popping: price concerns, hesitant third party support, underpowered versions of other console's games, low storage capacity.

It was hard being an early Wii U adopter, I won't make the same mistake again.

Some points that it seems like people are overlooking are that
1.) The switch is relatively cheaper than the PS4 pro and will be cheaper than the new XBOX console when that comes out. I understand that people are still content with the level of performance of the original PS4, but which one you are comparing Switch to might be something to consider (also does that mean the PS4 pro will fail?)
2.) With regular inflation that has been occurring in the US the Switch is probably about the same relative price as the Wii was. Obviously opinions on capitalism in the US and it's effects on the global market are a separate issue, but Nintendo is committed to never selling hardware at a loss, so I don't know if they really had a better option. In my opinion $300 makes sense now. Even Wii U has never seen a price tag below $250 still

@Mart1ndo except 1) the Wii included a game, 2) additional controllers were half the price, and 3) further games were (an average) 20% cheaper.

For the cost of the Switch alone, you could get a Wii including Wii Sports and a second Wiimote to play with. Admittedly the Switch including 2 joy-cons does mitigate this somewhat, but still doesn't include anything to play on it.

If you want 2-player Arms, you've got to pay for a second pair of Joy-cons, which is roughly the costs of 2 Wii games back in the day. Wii Play came bundled with a second wiimote (though not the nunchuck).

That's bullish to say the least but even if it doesn't sell like that, I hope that means he's willing to put big numbers up on the shelves.

The only way I'm with him is if he is thinking this has growth potential because it is portable and many more will see it day to day than happens with a home console tied to a TV. Then, it has a steady ramp up in demand throughout this year that culminates in a big Holiday 2017 success.

Has to be there on the shelves, though. Hope he's right.

Not going to happen. Wii was a one time event.

Well it looks like it will reach those numbers because PIXEL PRINCESS has now been confirmed for switch after reaching its kickstarter target. No way 100 mill

@gaga64
Your right the price of controllers is very expensive. I thought that after I wrote my comment. Plus Wii Sports was free.
Switch will get a price cut eventually.

They just keep chasing that Wii dream. the Wii was a fluke. It should not have sold that much. The Wii U and Switch are going to suffer because of the success of the Wii. They wanted to make a Wii 2 hence why they named Wii U what they did and they thought the name alone would make it sell. Clearly not. And the Switch...if they keep focusing on 1-2-Switch minigame motion control BS the Switch will fail. Focus on the fact that you can take it anywhere. I think they're dreaming if they think they're going to hit 100 million again. The Wii's success seems to have ruined them.

@Turbo857 oh I'm not saying it's not a fantastic machine, just that I doubt it will catch the same level of mainstream hype that the Wii did.

Motion controls were a literal game changer - something everyone's granny could easily grasp or want to play. It rewrote how we could interact with our games in a very exciting way. I bought mine almost solely on the basis of getting to literally swing Link's sword in Twilight Princess. Sure, the reality was arbitrary waggling in games that didn't warrant it, or hundreds of disposable party games, but the concept was truly revolutionary and it got us rethinking how we play games, and introduced all sorts of new options.

The Switch is fantastic, but it's not the same. It's brilliantly flexible and convenient, but it doesn't inherently change the games themselves. Just look at how many titles are ports or tweaks of existing games.

Ultimately I think the Switch is going to be successful, but mainly to existing gamers who can see the brilliance of it, not to the untapped markets that the Wii appealed to.

Also, to be fair, I'm not saying that's a bad thing. The Wii console sold huge, but a significant % of owners played Wii Sports and were happy with that. Sony and Microsoft sold comparatively less Machines at that time, but with much higher attachment rates in terms of software sales per console. It's all relative.

I don't think the Switch will sell Wii numbers, but that doesn't make it a failure, not by a long shot.

@Mart1ndo eventually yeah

@Malakai Can confirm that is roughly what he said. He is stating it has the potential not that it will. Context is everything!

The Wii was all over the news. Nursing homes were using them. People were throwing controllers through their TV screen. People were getting their grandmas to play.
Some people are going to come home with the Switch and not have much to play...especially if they don't care about Zelda. The lineup is weak for the average gamer...and it won't get much better this year unless you are a Nintendo fan.

I hope it does, but I don't think it will quite as well. The Wii was more affordable and came bundled with a fun, unique game for the time.

@alasdair91 not if Nintendo can get enough parents of 8 year olds to buy it. I thinking 45-50 million

@gaga64 didn't the Wii sell 100 million and also 900 million software units aswell. I'd say the attach rate was gigantic

I think I have a better shot at hitting the lottery than the Switch hitting 100 mill. With that said, there would need to be a focus on the switch( no successor). A price drop and/or a few diff skus, a KILLER announcement at E3(I mean like a Pokémon coming exclusive in 2018 sort of announcement) and a marketing blitz to get casuals into wanting the Switch.

I think 50 mill is much more achievable, but shoot for the stars...

I don't see it selling to as many people as the Wii simply because I doubt the grandparents are going to pick one up. I do think it definitely has the potential to sell far beyond Wii U. The launch looks a lot stronger and at least for me personally they are finally doing what I've been wanting for years. The barrier of being tied to a specific room in my house has finally been removed. I'll be bringing my Switch with me everywhere!

I don't doubt that this is possible, but realistically, I see them selling around 50 million lifetime. I hope I'm wrong. The Switch certainly does seem to have a lot of momentum.

I hope not!! 100mill+ sales would really taint my 'hip outsider' image

Overly optimistic.
However if they want a chance of getting at least a fourth of that....PLEASE ADVERTISE.

Not gonna happen, guys. Wii was revolutionary, got mega press, appealed to young and old and everyone in-between. It also included FREE GAMES that anyone could enjoy (i.e.; Bowling). It was priced decent too. Switch does not have this formula, not even close. At **best** 50 mil units, lifetime.

@DonkeyKongBigBoy 900m software units is huge, but I was thinking that 9 games per console wasn't a great rate per console. But looking into it a bit more, it's actually pretty good. Most major home consoles get between 6 and 10 games sold per console, with only the GameCube (9.8) and PS1 (9.4) doing more than the Wii.

Even in that generation, the Wii was notably higher than the PS3 and Xbox 360, so I stand corrected and retract that part of my comment.

And regardless of the rate per console, 900m games is a huge number.

I think Kimishima is being overly optimistic.
I don't see the Switch selling 100M. It isn't as revolutionary as the Wii not to mention the lack of a pack in title and the overpriced nature of the system and its accessories.

@gaga64 actual software figure was around 917 million so probably $3 billion dollars worth of games sold, just on Wii, which is totally ridiculous and shows how Nintendo can basically just do what they want regardless businesswise. They have so much cash it's unreal. Christ knows how much they made from accessories

Well, the Switch has garnered far more attention and interest compared to the Wii U's early days drawing mostly questions. Suggestions they're getting back to appealing to their regular gamers in design and focus will be a huge plus.

I wish for the Switch to be really successful, I'm confident it will far exceed the Wii U in terms of sales & software... but it might be a stretch to expect it to sell like the original Wii did. Back in 2006, there weren't as many options and for casual gamers the Wii was the top system for them. But it's so different now. I expect the Switch to sell similar numbers as the 3DS... hopefully.

Well, the Wii didn't exactly do it on pure variety of games and 3rd party support. It made its biggest killing from the casuals who bought deep into the party games. The Wii was more than a game system, it was a phenomenon, and dare I say cultural phenomenon, for its time. While Switch is a phenomenon in gaming itself, and its concept is killer, I don't think its hook will shake the Earth, but it has the potential to move a ton of units. I definitely see it selling upwards of 50mil just on adverts, AAA first party titles, and initial 3rd party offerings. To get that other 50 mil, they are going to have to make sure a steady flow of hype and a steady flow of killer app after killer app comes, and that is where the 3rd party AAA's will really need to surface. It might not be worth Nintendo to idolize the Switch's success to that of how the Wii succeeded, but more so to that of the PS2's success as the hype and games continued to flow throughout that systems life. Side note, another way to get started into that 100mil climb would be for Nintendo to make sure they woo those current 3DS users over to the Switch, so the Pokemons and Monster Hunters NEED to come over to the Switch for some killer system-selling action. But that's just my opinion of course, Nintendo gonna do what Nintendo wanna do

Nintendolife is amazing. So many financial and marketing experts on one forum that doesn't require a subscription! lol

@GrailUK If Michael Pachter can do it, why not Random Internet Guy #53?

@ricklongo Haha I know right (Btw, carry on everyone, I was just teasing!)

I really hope Nintendo re-release their major Wii U games for Switch.

Captain Toad, Paper Mario, DKC etc would be a good way for them to easily boost the Switch's library and at the same time get those awesome games into the hands of the many gamers that didn't buy a Wii U.

As they've taken that approach with MK8, I hope other games follow suit. I'd personally love to be able to play Mario 3D World on the move.

Make it happen Nintendo!

I'll eat my hat if it happens. They're chasing a VERY different kind of gamer here. Wii was a flash in the pan. And many people bought Wii because of Wii Sports. Those consoles then gathered dust. I believe it will sell much better than Wii U, but 100 million? Well I'm hoping so but not so sure ...

@datamonkey
I'm ok with that but those can't be considered major releases for Switch. The perception would be Switch is just another WiiU you can take out of your house (you could already play these games handheld in your home).
Paying the same price for MK8 is really gouging the fans (if it indeed launches at this price). While I'd like to have it on Switch, I'm not paying full price based on principle.

@plywoodstick @LARSUSMAKSIMUS makes an extremely good point here. Hardware console sales of Wii numbers are probably even unlikely for Sony let alone Nintendo at this point, that's just silly, BUT the Wii software attach rate was HORRIBLE. The good sales of the console (for the pack-in fad) masked the reality that the purpose of selling consoles is to sell games, and nobody bought games for the Wii. DS was where their big income was coming from. I'm not sure if Kimishima is talking in terms of "hardware units sold" or "net sales" in terms of revenue. If he's talking revenue, I retract my crticism of his comment. Switch could easily do Wii-like revenue if including games, because it's much more likely to attract customers that actually intend to buy games. Monetarily, it could well exceed Wii. Won't touch DS though.

The Switch will do similar to 3DS numbers-- no way is this the Wii again.

That's an insane prediction. Nintendo will need a whole toolbox of tricks up their sleeves to get close to Wii numbers. I'm gonna guess it'll be somewhere in between Wii U and 3DS numbers.

I expect it to sell about as well as the Wii U.

@DonkeyKongBigBoy Wii attach rate is better than I last checked, so my prior post is incorrect. I had last read it was around 3.

It's hard calculating the real attach though since it's highly exaggerated. They included the Wii Sports pack-in in those numbers, that includes Wii Play which was sold bundled with a second (effectively required) wiimote, so a lot of people, myself included bought Wii Play because it was basically a free game when buying another controller, the numbers include Wii Fit & Wii Fit Plus, which is hard to define. It's software sales, but it's not being sold as entertainment but as a fitness (dare I say it, QoL?) product that HAPPENS to utilize the console. That market really has to be removed when doing attach rate comparisons to other consoles since it was a momentary crossover into a different entire market sector than any other console. And finally it included Sports Resort which a lot of people bought as the only way to get a Motion Plus which was going to be required for Skyward Sword.

If you remove all those titles, the attach goes waaaay down. The numbers look impressive, and they are impressive (moreso than I'd last seen) but Wii, being a razor and blades sales model riddled with required accessories that were often pack-in exclusive with a game, hardware sales mask as software sales.

Wii's just a bad example of anything when trying to compare. Which makes Kimishima's statement all the more confusing beyond "investor's like Wii, let's say Wii!"

@WOLF1313 I don't think MK8 is for "the fans" that owned it on WiiU (though plenty of big fans WILL buy it for the local multiplayer.) It's their biggest franchise by sales right now. MK8 on Switch isn't about reselling it to the 12M WiiU owners. It's about selling it to the 53M 3DS owners that didn't also buy a never owned a WiiU, plus the newcomers who owned neither.

@NEStalgia
They still shouldn't charge new fans full price.

If he thinks he's the next Iwata, he can think again.

@NEStalgia what's truly impressive is the amount of cash Nintendo made with the Wii. It's staggering and I thought it was an average console.

Mario kart 8 deluxe is a system seller in my eyes. People who skipped the Wii U may not have even seen it before (casuals) and think that Mario kart alone is enough to buy a switch. That and zelda should make sure the initial switch sales are very good.

They also thought the Wii U was going to do Wii numbers...

@YoshiTails
To be fair, Iwata wasn't the next Iwata either....he brought us the highs of the Wii and DS and the lows of the GCN and WiiU. In retrospect he was a huge risk taker that either lost big or won bigger and never played it down the middle. He truly was a "gamer" who always played to win, including business.

Kimishima's a banker at heart. Playing it down the middle is what he does best, so a polar opposite in some ways, but probably is precisely what Nintendo needs right now. But why he's thinking Wii numbers....unless he's talking revenue through software, I'll never know.

@WOLF1313
Well it includes the DLC that everyone on WiiU paid extra for, so technically it's not full price. And it's still "the new Mario Kart" for anyone that didn't own a WiiU (which is most of the people they hope to sell a Switch to.) Not sure what all the DLC tracks added up cost for WiiU (I only bought one and can't remember what it cost) but it's probably a decent savings over what we all were paying for the "complete" edition.

@DonkeyKongBigBoy The Wii may have made some cash, but it still pales in comparison to the DS. That those two were running at the SAME TIME is simply breathtaking!

Victims of their own success in many ways though. Not just turning a lot of customers off the brand after alienating them for the new temporary customers. But even internally they drew so many of the wrong lessons from its success and from WHERE the numbers came from. Fitness fads are MEGA money makers. Much more than any video game console will ever be. They seemed to miss that until much too late. Which was probably the impetus behind QoL, to try to get into that again.

I always have this feeling from them that they still don't understand where that money came from. The ads/trailers showing the Switch as the ultimate party machine, "Wii gone mobile" and this statement from Kimishima makes me think that they still believe a party console is a viable business. I'd like to be optimistic and think they're ALSO targeting that market rather than focusing on it. And they probably are. But it does give one pause.

@NEStalgia thankfully they have put a lot of advertising time into zelda and showing how big the game world is and how you can play it on the move. The motion control games are there but are taking a backseat mostly.

Of course he should be optimistic in these settings- if investors think even Nintendo themselves have significant reservations about the Switch's success, they'd be in trouble. Showing confidence in this scenario is key.

That said, while it will almost certainly outsell the Wii U, he had no reason to believe it will be anywhere close to the Wii's sales. That captured an entirely different audience.

@Moon

You realize it doing double the 3DS would mean it would sell 120m+ units over the course of its lifetime, right?

That's unachievable. This system is for the gaming crowd primarily, not mom and dad.

Fact: There are more mums and dads in the world than there are gaming people. They struck gold once, and it will remain at once. That kind of mine cannot be feasibly caught again.

Those numbers are WAY too optimistic, I doubt it will sell a 100 million units. Maybe 50 million units, but even that's still a bit too optimistic. Unless Nintendo can easily grab the casual audience for it's new system, I don't really think it would sell 100 million.

@NEStalgia
I agree. I know many people turned off to Nintendo after Wii and WiiU. Nintendo will need home runs to win them back.

@electrolite77
I think Nintendo wanted to be 250euro but retailers in Ireland anyway added another 20euro. I paid 270euro for mine in GameStop on day one. I queued from 6am that morning and was 8th in the queue and got the last one. Then I went to work.

@OorWullie The system would be pretty much useless without the Joy-cons though.

Considering the US dollar under our current president is probably going to drop in value in the next four years and the middle class will be decimated I don't think that goal will reached with help from US sales.

@WOLF1313
Yeah, WiiU was really, in part, the result of a lot of people turning off after Wii. Nintendo DID realize by late Wii era the error in targeting casuals (at least Iwata did) too much, and tried to correct the WiiU into a "true gamer system" but by then the "true gamers" were too skeptical of Nintendo, and without momentum in games, they never looked back. Wii killed WiiU much more than WiiU and it's bad marketing did.

In hindsight, the Wii ended up being close to a true "third pillar" - a non-games entertainment device for motion party games and exercise games even if it meant not having a "home console" for a while. It didn't have to be that way but their focus away from all core games really created that bubble for it that haunted them through the WiiU and still haunts them with Switch, somewhat.

@Donderpants
Optimism is good, and telling the investors what they want to hear can be critical. But after the WiiU, I can't help but think realistic goals or even lowball goals so they exceed predictions might work better. This just sets up an AGM a few years down the line where they have to revise downward and explain underperformance. "Please Understand" worked for one man, alone.

@DonkeyKongBigBoy Yeah, I'm ever grateful for the Zelda emphasis. I think they're spending more overall time in the advertising on the motion control + group multiplayer games than Zelda, but they START with Zelda, and keep revisiting it, so that's a good sign.

What they need is Wii Sports 2. Literally. Switch Sports pack-in for Chrimbo?

So he expects it to be literally the second-highest-selling console of all time, only not being first because the PS2 had a perfect window of timing the likes of which will never happen again?

I already knew he wasn't that smart, but this is just asinine.

@Skunkfish
I agree. Switch Sports....including bowling....should have been a no brainer.

Not at $300, and not if there's a separate handheld. But if they make an affordable model that's more handheld-focused, and they get Pokémon on it, and it also sells well as a home console with a cool gimmick... maybe.

PS2 sold 150 million because it was a cheap DVD player (PS3 was an expensive Blu-ray player and Blu-ray ended up being much less revolutionary than streaming anyway, so it didn't happen again). DS sold 150 million because it expanded the handheld market in a way that was only possible because we didn't have iPhones yet (notice how every attempt on 3DS to replicate the success of Touch Generations — Nintendogs, Brain Age, CrossworDS (and then the ones they didn't even try to make on 3DS: America's Test Kitchen, Personal Trainer Walking, 100 Classic Books) — ended up bombing because while it made sense in 2005 to spend $120 on a DS and $20 on a sudoku collection because the alternative at the time was to carry around a big book of sudokus, it didn't make sense in 2011 to spend $250 plus $40 on the same thing when the smartphone you already have in your pocket anyway does a good enough job of it for free). Wii sold 100 million because it was a cool new fad that we'd never seen before and then it got Mario Kart and Netflix and price cuts and bundles to carry it beyond that.

(Note here that I'm talking just about sales, which are pretty removed from what we "hardcore" ""gamer"" types would consider actual quality of the games. The Wii, DS, and PS2 all had some of the best games of all time, but so did the Gamecube and the Wii U, and the Switch will have its share too; it's anyone's guess whether a masterpiece game ends up being a Super Mario World or a Yoshi's Woolly World in terms of system-selling)

Does the Switch have a cool enough gimmick to make it a necessary purchase to 100 million people? Maybe. But it's definitely not guaranteed. Personally if I were the president of Nintendo, I'd be sticking to vaguer language than that. But I'm not the president of Nintendo.

Somebody pinch the man because he is clearly dreaming if he thinks it will achieve the WII status of 100 million or more. First of all its a bad business move to come off a commercial failure and put out a piece of hardware with peripherals that will run around 500 to 600 dollars or more before even getting any games. Secondly 1-2 Switch I personally don't see the appeal of simulating milking a cow as anything more than a five or second laugh with the right group and nothing more and will sit and collect dust but retailing for 49.99 when it looks to be a tech demo and should have been a pack in. Thirdly come on you can't change the battery yourself when it dies. My Wii - U battery was having issues but completely died after 3 1/2 years and its cheaper and more convenient to buy a new one and install yourself. Next all the trailers and such have a bunch of hipster or casual looking gamers which seeing this is more expensive than the Wii will not appeal to them for this price. The sheer arrogance of Nintendo to think they can seriously fail and the masses will flock to their underpowered out dated hardware and as when the sales momentum slows after launch which after the hype dries up the third parties will flee again and that will leave first party and indies again which did not save the Wii - U. I personally enjoyed the Wii - U but feel I have no reason or incentive to upgrade to a system that looks almost the same when you compare performance and graphics. I have two Wii - u's and when Breath of the Wild comes out I will enjoy it and the Wii - U for years to come and when their next system comes out I will look at it and hopefully it will be better than the Switch.

To all the pessimists ... think about it. Any family household will not settle for one switch. Each kid will want one. Kids love touchscreens and they love pokemon and mario.

All of the toddlers in my extended family, and thats 15 of them, love pokemon and collect the soft toys and get on mum and dads pokemon go and would go nuts for a switch pokemon game.

Switch has massive potential on the back of pokemon go and dont forget that kids seem to universally love mario on their first viewing.

Final point. Wii u sales, ps4, and xbox one sales are totally irrelevant to the switch. Anyone who argues differently is plumb wrong. The only pieces of kit that comes close to the tech that switch offers are tablets with hdmi out and theyre super expensive and the psp with its cruddy composite out. I tuink we all know the switch has far more markey appeal than the psp.

yeah...no.

Just because the Switch "offers a unique way of playing games" doesn't mean it will replicate the success of the Wii.

I think the Switch will sell about as much as the 3DS, maybe a bit more (70-75 million), if Nintendo plays their cards right. But to sell over 101 million units is a VERY tall order. I can't see it happening.

Maybe Nintendo plans for the Switch to last like 10+ years on the market, like the original Gameboy family, by constantly launching Switch revisions and redesigns ala the GBC, DSi, New 3DS, PS4 Pro, Xbox Scorpio etc. In that case, then yes, the Switch could sell well over 100 million. But it won't sell that much in a single 6 to 7 year "generation."

Please, Nintendo...lower your expectations. No need to shoot for the stars just yet. Remember the Wii U??

Well put some great Fighting Games on it (hype for SFIIHDU) and I'll buy a few for friends.

Lololololol keep dreaming, Kimishima. 10 million is your max and I'm being generous.

Kimishima is HIGH AS F**K if he thinks the Switch is going to sell as well as the Wii..... The Wii was an anomaly.

It's not likely to see Wii-like sales without software that appeals to the same wide range as Wii sports. Not even when Mario makes his delayed debut on it, since SM3DW couldn't help Wii U enough. Zelda is big, but not what it takes to entice the same non-gamer crowd that made Wii sell like it did.

They got some things right with this that Wii U didn't have, though. Firstly, a name that isn't easy to confuse with it's predecessor while meaning nothing (seriously, WHAT did that U mean?!?). Second, a clearly appreciable functionality innovation that should appeal to a wider range of customers. Third would be clear value incentives, and - whoops, kinda blowing that so far, but we'll see.

If it is that successful, though, we should brace ourselves for another wave of cash-in party games from lower level third parties to crowd the shelves. I remember shopping for Wii titles became an exercise in saying "hmm... THAT looks like crap..."

Ner, not 100 million. I think it'll be a moderate success though. 60 million lifetime or something like that I can believe.
It'll depend on whether they try and keep a second handheld going though.
If all the Nintendo developers are focusing on 1 platform, it'll sell more.

I want what ever he is smocking, as that is far out there numbers.
This will sell well like 3ds numbers not wii numbers.

At least Kimishima's Nintendo doesn't have the same weakness and timidness that Iwata's Nintendo had, especially in regard to the consumer criticism- but lightning doesn't strike the same spot twice.

@Link118 It would be for those that already have an extra set of Joy-cons they bought for multiplayer,not for first time buyers. Then when they Switch Plus comes along in a couple of years, they could sell the tablet alone for those of us that bought the original and as part of set with dock and Joy-cons for new buyers.

It's possible, and the superbowl ad they have lined up won't hurt their chances

Highly doubt it. I think it'll do well, but not well. I'd say it'll probably sell in the 40-80 million range.

And I'd like a 33 inch waist.

They can only sell that many if they manufacture that many. And they can't even manufacture enough to get one to every hardcore fan by next month. What a joke.

The Switch will be reiterated in 2 years with a newer more powerful version of the Switch with a larger internal hard drive. The Switch will be re-iterated again every couple years, and your games will carry over and be 100% backwards compatible with each new Switch. It will be like upgrading your smart phone; the Switch will be a system series that continues for a long time over several generations and will ultimately sell hundreds of millions of units, and be Nintendo’s most successful console ever.

@gaga64 I would say that it's more revolutionary than waggle controls, and I don't think the price of the Switch is so much more than the Wii was in terms of inflation.

@NEStalgia Yeah, excepting certain blockbusters like Mario Kart Wii, New SMB Wii, Mario Galaxy, and Brawl, most non-Nintendo games on the Wii did not sell well. However, Wii Sports Resort sold over 30 million copies, which is pretty impressive for a minigame collection sequel. Wii Fit/Plus also sold over 40 million put together, and there's at least 10-20 million Balance Boards (depending on how many have been destroyed by now) still in existence, sitting in millions of closets... If Nintendo was able to sell millions of peripherals on the Wii, they can do it with more concentration (and maybe some price drops) on NS.

However, if more mobile games are ported to the NS, and Nintendo turns around their marketing decisions, it could have better sales than the 3DS. Nintendo insists that it is a "home console that can be taken on the go", but if you think about it, it can also be a "mobile gaming device that can be taken home" as well... Well, at least Nintendo finally figured out that, yes, advertising at the Super Bowl is worthwhile.

He's out of his mind! They'd have to blow our doors off with huge amounts of games and so far I just don't see that happening. At this point the Wii U launch had more choices. We'll see

@OorWullie Interesting idea, but I don't know if it's really worth doing that.

@PlywoodStick Well remember Sports Resort was bundled with hardware. I bought two copies just to get the Motion Plus's since there was almost no cost for the game with that pack-in. Those 30M copies were probably a 50/50 split between people buying Resort and people buying a Motion Plus at least.

Fit is certainly its own category (though whether it's numbers should be included in console comparisons since it's really a whole other market is debatabe. I still have my balance board around....never cared for Wii Fit but the Shaun White snowboarding game was a blast with it I tend to get into a snow sports game after a Winter Olympics.....no doubt that Ubi snow sports game coming to Switch will be in my bargain bin collection a year from now

I think "mobile gaming device that can be taken home" is much more sensible than the "home console" shtick. Though I understand why they're doing it. What makes you think though that more mobile games on it will sell it more? I thought the whole point of mobile games is that it's on hardware you already own and already have with you at all times, rather than buying dedicated hardware for real games. And I thought the point of better hardware was to get deeper games with better controls that you can't get on mobile? I'm not sure mobile games will do a very good job selling Switch's. If it's to get the parents to buy kids a Switch instead of a Fire or something, the up-front cost would surely be the killer.

Then again I say that as someone downloading Fire Emblem Heroes in my other hand, cursing out my screen that times out every 15s while Anna sits there prattling on, thinking as bad as this game looks it would still play better on my 3DS which cost a fraction as much.

I certainly think 80 mil+ is achievable.

One thing the Switch will have going for it that no other console has ever had, is potential wildfire-spreading by being more visible to the public with time. Soon people will be seeing it in action as other people are using theirs in public places. That should entice a few sales, and it's a system that will attract more attention than even a 3DS does. You certainly never saw someone playing their Wii U in a park or on a bus or so on. It's built in advertising.

@Malakai
thanks for the proper translation. it makes a lot more logic when the word "possible" is there instead of "expected"

@SuperWeird
I really like the idea of a new console every couple of years in the switch family with full backwards compatibility. I hope you are right!

@MadAdam81 fair play, it's all just my own opinion. In my defence, I personally feel that the potential of motion controls (as opposed to the actuality of waggle) was more exciting and interesting to non-gamers than the flexibility offered by the Switch will be. I think the Switch may well revolutionise the industry in terms of unifying the handheld and home markets, but I can't see it having the same impact for the wider casual audience.

Of course I hope they prove me wrong.

Also, I can't speak for anyone else, but I know my salary hasn't followed inflation. As I've said above, I think the entry cost of the Machines isn't directly comparable - 1 included a game, the other doesn't, and the costs of games and spare controllers has also increased. And I could be wrong, but I think the increased cost of the Switch games and peripherals vs the Wii or Wii U is greater than the rise of inflation. But I've no data to support that, it's just my gut feeling, which could well be wrong. Subjective opinion.

Also free online multiplayer vs annual subscription (not debating the ethics of that, paying for servers etc, just saying it adds to the machine entry cost).

I'm going to go on record and say it will sell more than Gamecube and Wii U. I think the best realsitic hope is N64 level of sales.

Do Nintendo still not understand that they are pricing the switch out of the market.
Who is it for- yes Nintendo fans will buy it but they bought the Wii u too.
The Wii sold ridiculous amounts because it was at an impulse buy price.
The switch plus game is at 320 pounds in the uk- compared to 199 for the all mighty- well advertised- talk of the playground PS4.
I can't see it happening unfortunately.

@Jimsbo how often have you seen people playing 3Ds or vitas in public places? I own both and use them on the bus regularly. I have never seen anyone else use either anywhere. Ever!

Lol he must be dreaming. Kimishima clearly lives in a bubble.
The Switch might do well, maybe even better than the Wii U, but it surely won't sell 100 million units - not even close - that's for sure. It just doesn't have that appeal that the Wii had.

Kimishima stroke me as a very measured CEO. I think that his comments were out of context. Maybe he said something along the lines: "it will be rather good if the Switch sells as much as the Wii did".

I'm not getting a Switch anytime soon. None of my friends are (all Wii players). Consier the big impact of the tablets and phat phones.

I believed it could sell 25-30 million, but since they are so people (that I don't know) hyped, I'll guess that 40 million is achievable.

They are gonna put Pokemon on it.....I don't even like Pokemon but know that will shift units. Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest too. It is all well and good putting Zelda and Metroid out. But its these crazy phenomenon style games where people line up for days that will shift the units. I guess they are combing sales of portable and home now too. Remember the Wii was selling alongside a good portable.

darthstuey,

I don't see a lot of public play either, outside of kids carrying a 3DS or 2DS in supermarkets, but I'm also not out and around much outside of working. I'm also thinking of semi-public places, like offices with a loose enough atmosphere that people can bring in figures to dress up their desks and relax in the cafeteria. Or friends dropping by with one to show off.

Basically anywhere where there's now the potential to see someone playing one, which could stick in someone's mind as "Hey, that looked pretty cool, actually. Maybe I should pick one of those up."

points and laughs you actually think this system will sell that many?!?! You gotta be kidding! No way in hell out will out sell the ps4, dream on ppl! Lol

@gaga64

Bit late with my reply but well said. I agree with your points in regards to the Switch's hardware features not immediately impacting game design (or gameplay) to the degree we saw with the Wii (especially when we look at first year releases for the Switch).

But the Switch's Joy-con uses a more sophisticated technology for motion controls compared to the Wii Remote and also have HD Rumble. It remains to be seen but I have a feeling the tech in those little controllers will eventually impact gameplay in revolutionary ways in the future.

@yuwarite you can see the future, it's really happening now.