Lifetime American Hardware Stats Show The Size Of Nintendo's Task With NX

Well it's all to play for at the end. The way I see it is as long as their numbers are consistent and Nintendo themselves can turn a profit they'll keep making consoles and handhelds.

But I will say the moment Nintendo stops doing platforms that might be the point I give up buying modern games. It would be more of a retirement than a quit as I would rather leave things on a high note

It would be interesting to see worldwide statistics

It's disingenuous to say the demand isn't there. It's more, the demand has shrunk due to smart devices. I hate how analysts are so binary. It either has to be a huge success, or it's a failure.

@Serebii Sadly you even have this with game companies too like how Square considered the Tomb Raider reboot a failure.

Further proof that greatness does not equal sales. Especially in the case of SNES, N64 and GameCube.

I still think Nintendo should experiment with the youth smart device market. While there probably are some examples, I'm not aware of any smart devices that are obviously tailored towards 5-13 year olds. When I was a kid, there was always someone nearby with a Gameboy. Nintendo ought to try making the Gameboy of the smart device world.

I've thought the same thing since the hybrid rumours began to surface. It just feels like something Nintendo should have done after the original Wii, not when dedicated handhelds are a dying market.

No wonder Nintendo are probably looking for a gimmick with NX looking at those figures. They're chasing after that lightning cloud that struck the Wii. I haven't seen anybody mention that the NX could also act as a smart phone. I don't see why not.

I rarely see anyone in public with a ds/3ds. If Nintendo wants to make a portable impact this generation, they really need hammer mobile phone apps and not focus so much on a 3ds successor. I'm definitely into the NX though, but certainly not for portable use.

Honestly who didn't see this but I hardly call this a catastrophe. Sure the 3DS has sold less but in a world where dedicated consoles are less popular due to there being more options for the "casual gamer" I'd say 20+ million in one territory ain't half bad. Also with Nintendo making inroads into the Mobile world it has the potential to grab the best of both worlds.

Their best option would be to capitalise on this and try to develop connections between its mobile and portable console audiences; perhaps even entice some "cross border movement". "Enjoy this mobile game? How about a more in depth experience on a dedicated console; here's a voucher for the console game in exchange for buying our mobile game" and visa versa. I'm sure not all mobile users will be willing to dish out for a dedicated handheld and many more "classical gamers" will turn their cheeks towards mobile games as nothing more than a minor bus journey distraction (myself included) but even some success in this area could help develop a healthy and happy fanbase.

Just don't show preference to either of them please.

@Prizm I seen someone on the train with a 3DS yesterday. A fully grown, hairy man no less. But yes, it is extremely rare these days.

This analysis really ignores the impact of price on the handheld market. Nintendo has long sold most of their handhelds at a price under $100. The 3ds was entered the market at 66% higher than the ds launched. And though there was a quick price decrease it never really got close to the $100 price point that other handhelds enjoyed success at.

Sure you could say the 2ds hit this, but it came after 3ds momentum stalled and was viewed as inferior to the 3ds as it removed a big feature 3d and clamshell design which parents got used to as a protectant against screen damage. There was also market confusion as when I'm in game stores I always here people asking if the 2ds plays 3ds games.

The handheld market is very price sensitive. I'd say Nintendo could do very well if they came out with a 3ds replacement at $150 and could reach the $100 threshold as the big games are coming.

@cleveland124 I wouldn't want a 2DS for €50, the fugly thing.

I call codswallop on this. Enough with these "the handheld market is dead because casuals have left for smartphones", it doesn't make any sense. The people playing with their smartphones (myself, and I think everyone else included) do so because.. well everyone's got one. It doesn't change that it's a chaotic, cashgrabbing and meaningful market with very few actually decent games. Everyone that wants to really play a videogame without being annoyed by in-app purchases and minimal depth knows that they're going to need a good PC or a console. The videoludic market shrinked because we're still in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the 30s, and it's inevitable in the second phase of an economic crisis, the rebounding, that entertainment and leisures lose steam, especially when in most countries the rebound has been financial only (which means that the stock market rebounded to pre-crisis level, the rich are richer and the rest is poorer).
A single console in line with eurogames reported is a tremendous idea for Nintendo (but again, they really should try to find a way to sell at least one configuration of the machine for 199 dollars, the magic number under which electronic becomes mainstream), because is about putting Nintendo main strenght, meaning their franchises, in one place. A single console with the next mainline Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Metroid and Animal Crossing may not become a staggering success as the DS or the Wii were, but is going to sell well enough to keep Nintendo going and happy. The only real market that has been eroded is kids, because parents now let their kids play with their smartphone instead of buying dedicated devices but there are ways around that:
>advertise in tv, a lot
>push with the "there's no need for a credit card, buy a game and let your children play" narrative, there have been countless cases of children taking their parents' smartphone and spending fortunes on in-app purchases, parents are afraid
>push with the idea that Nintendo owned games are bright, family friendly and fun
>invite as many japanese and independent studio as possible, push the idea that the NX is a good machine with a lot of good games (it worked for the 3DS, despite all the technical difficulties)
The market is there and it's more than enough. If mobile gaming really was going to be the doom of handheld, it should have happened with the 3DS, it's not going to happen now that the smartphone market is not going to grow anymore and everyone's already got a device, alas smartphones can become an asset, with small gateway games to push people into the real deal

"The demand for dedicated portables isn't there."

Well you're wrong. I say this often enough in some form or another, but once more won't hurt; "as long as there's Pokemon, there's a demand for handhelds."

@SLIGEACH_EIRE

It's inferior yes. I think the 3ds troubles are tied to price though. Nintendo set the price way too high initially as they were able to come up with a big price decrease early. But then the Wii U lost money and Nintendo had to keep the 3ds price high to subsidize the Wii U. The 3ds could have gone lower in price but other issues at Nintendo were preventing it.

@hepgius Thank you for putting the profanity in the first sentence of that long post - made it much easier to find. Though next time, please leave it out entirely.

The only games I play on my smartphones are old point and click adventures on scumm emulator.
I don't think 'core gamers' play much on mobile phones and while i aknowledge it's a growing and valid market for mobile play it does not replace or substitute the experience of a dedicated handheld device. These remarks are made by people who only believe and listen to statistics and never finished a portable game themselves.

Had it not been for the Wii, the home hardware numbers would have decreased each time. and 6-7 million in America, is just way too low.

This could be the same article for Sony and Microsoft. Ps1 -102, Ps2 -155, Ps3 -84, Ps4-43, psp -82, psvita -13. Xbox -24, Xbox360-84, xboxone-20 all have risen and fallen and the numbers are currently all declining from what has gone before. Maybe the nx will be the next one to sell around 100million

Yeah, other than the outlier that was the Wii/DS generation, it's been a downward sales trajectory for Nintendo with every new console generation since the NES. I'm really hoping the NX can be another outlier like the Wii/DS in terms of sales and reverse Nintendo's overall trajectory entirely, beyond just a single console generation too.

@Vegaphil

The Wii U has a replacement coming and they are taking final orders this month. It's safe to assume their sales won't increase much more. The PS4 and Xbone are midcycle so they have lots of room on sales. You have to look at each item individually though. The PS3 price at launch was insane stunting its growth. Microsoft announced many anti-consumer policies with the xbone announcement which led to some sales backlash. Nintendo's also been on the market longer so they are easier to see the trend.

I think this is actually where the NX's strength might lie in being a hybrid system. If it were just a handheld I'd imagine it would still do well but maybe not quite as well as we might like. If it were just a home console I fear it would probably the death of Nintendo in the home console space unless it were something very special indeed. But, by combining the two together it can/should basically add the two Nintendo consumer bases together too and result in a potentially very decent selling system. If done right, it could end up being Nintendo's biggest selling console of all time. I really do hope that's how it plays out, and that we also get a whole of truly amazing games and experiences, both first and third party, to go alongside those hardware sales. We'll see though. . . .

At the end of the day it doesn't really matter how many consoles/handhelds you sell. What matters is that you make money on the product, then sell lots of games, services and DLC to your customers. From what I have read although the Wii U wasn't by any way a success for Ninty, they didn't sell it at a loss and the core fan base supported it with their wallets, so it just about broke even.

There are numerous big selling consoles that have famously bled money during their lifespans.

@impurekind

I disagree with that. The handheld market is price sensitive and including console power could price them out of the market. The home console market wants a powerful system to show off their entertainment area and a hybrid won't do that. I get the idea that NX could have multiple form factors and one version might be ahybrid, but I think it's a mistake to go full hybrid as the only people who would want that are people that are already going to buy both a console and a handheld from Nintendo, like many on this site.

@MrGawain

They did sell the Wii U at a loss. The whole company lost money for 4 straight years.

Whatever they make, it needs to be fresh and unique but have a mainstream appeal. It can't just be a PS4 clone; it's too late in the generation for that to be a success.

"The demand for dedicated portables isn't there"
Who are you to judge? How dare you? Handhelds for life, man!

I still play my NDS and 3DS games on my 3DS XL until today.
Even now i have owned a new smartphone, my trust still on Nintendo. And i like to show-off my 3DS XL in public instead smartphone that most people do that.

Those stats are pretty much irrelevant without taking into consideration the growth of the video game industry during each systems lifetime... showing them as a percentage of total console sales would probably be more beneficial for analysis.

Proportionately the 3DS has far more software titles sold per-unit than the DS does and software makes game makers a lot more money than hardware, believe it or not. This is by proportion and compared to the rate in which the gaming industry expands and contracts, all these numbers are subjective to their time period. Technically the 3DS is kicking ass in this hyper competitive gaming market.

Sigh... I hate the dumb mobile gaming market...

"The demand for dedicated portables isn't there"

NX home console CONFIRMED!!!

But seriously, worldwide sales of 3DS going well over 60 million units shows otherwise, so saying that there is no market for dedicated handhelds is complete and utter BS.

And that analyst is also talking out of the wrong end with saying that both the casual and core experience have been replaced by smart devices, because they're definitely not.

Sure, there are some serious and big games on smart devices, but those are only a relatively small amount compared to all the candy crush, farm simulator and flappy bird clones.

And controls on smart devices are still crap and syncing a controller to your phone/tablet isn't the same as having a dedicated handheld, so it's just no comparison.

Like others have already said: people game on their phone because they have one and everybody does it, but so many genres have come and gone, because the hype has died or will die soon.

Now everybody is playing Pokémon GO, but will they still do that this time next year?

No, dedicated handhelds are here to stay, at least for a few more generations to come.

@Prizm I don't get much opportunity to play games at home these days due to having a young family, so almost all of my gaming is currently done on trains using my 3DS and Vita (and PSP too). I do see some others playing on the train too. There was actually guy on my train home last week with a huge Alienware laptop, mouse and headset playing a FPS!

It's impossible to establish a sales trend about portables based on the dip from DS to 3DS. This analysis is fairly shallow.

worldwide the 3DS has sold nearly 60 Million units

as much as they would like us to believe otherwise America isn't the centre of the world and a new handheld will be just fine because Nintendo doesn't just focus on one region

@cleveland124 Well, we're all just speculating here anyway. We'll see soon enough. . . .

@LegendOfPokemon Me too i rather just play 3ds than than play a cellphone i think it's stupid

I didn't buy a 3DS because of the specs. The low-res screen, slow and clunky interface and no real innovations other than the glasses-free 3D which isn't something I would even turn on. I only picked up a N3DSXL recently when I found a good deal, very glad I waited.

Nintendo just needs to get the message out and deliver it in a way that shows the consumer what the NX is. The marketing department has to step up and do a better job than they did with the Wii U.

The tell kids in sports you can't just show up and win. You have to practice. It seems like after the Wii, Nintendo expected to put the Wii name on it, roll it out on the market, and expect fans to gobble it up. It didn't happen.

Now, they are telling us all the right things this time. Let's hope they've learned from that mistake.

The market has changed. Thats for sure. Imho nintendo consoles are primarily because of nintendo first party games. Thats nintendos biggest strength which they been neglecting with the wii u. Lets say breath of the wild had come out with the wii u launch, things might have looked differently. In the end its all about the games.

I would say there's definitely still a demand, especially from the developer side. Companies, specifically what I call "B Team" companies like Atlus, are still going to be more at home on a place like the 3DS than a phone or a big console. The development is much cheaper, but still allows for a large, expansive world to explore. To put a game like SMT 4 on the Wii U, or worst the PS4/XBOXone, would be prohibitively expensive, especially when you figure you're not making Call of Duty money back.
I worry that there won't be a proper handheld in a generation or two, because companies like that are going to have to start cutting corners to make their games.

@LegendOfPokemon
Don't worry. Even i owned a new smartphone now (Has two games only :Cooking Mama mobile and Pokemon GO ) but my attention still on Nintendo games.

Show off the NX so I can decide whether to get a SNES or not Nintendo!

@AugustusOxy Yes I was going to say these figures aren't the whole story without software sales included. It would be very interesting to see the attach rates of the various systems.

@Grandpa_Pixel Amen brother. I truly believe the day Nintendo gets out of what they do, will be the day videogames will go from passion to passing hobby for me.

@Grumblevolcano That comparison doesn't make any sense. The Tomb Raider reboot was a failure when Square Enix said that. They hadn't broken even on the project at that time. That's a symptom of ridiculously high development costs and bloated budgets.

@AugustusOxy I think one thing that often gets ignore in the endless argument that handhelds are dying is that the 3DS sold to a much more hardcore market then then the DS ever did.

Nintendo tried to hook the casual gamers early on with 3DS sequels to Nintendogs and Brain Age, and when the casuals did not bite, they went in another direction and doubled down on their core franchises.

People who are willing to buy three versions of Fire Emblem Fates, numerous Pokemon games, Smash Bros DLC, and who look forward to games like Dragon Quest.

The attachment rate of the 3DS is higher because the games on the platform are much better then their DS counterparts, and simply put, the casuals who simply bought a couple of games are long gone.

What is left are gamers like me and others, who play their 3DS as a serious system and plunk down money on new games on a regular basis.

@nab1 It's not that I hate Playstation or Microsoft. PlayStation always has been my secondary console. But over the years I found myself getting less and less games for it. And now, I am only hyped for Ni No Kuni 2, Gravity Rush 2, Kingdom Hearts 3 and Persona 5. When the Playstation 5 comes along, it will be bought at the end of its lifecycle.

So if I leave gaming, it will not be out of "eugh, now I'm stuck with PS and XB" but more "I think this is a good time to stop". Besides, at the end of next year I will have at least 400+ games in my collection. That will last a lifetime

By that logic there isn't a market to support dedicated game devices. It would be important to note that smart devices are to portable gaming as Steam is to console gaming.

Besides, Nintendo hasn't said that the NX is a dedicated game device. In fact they have made statements that lean in quite the opposite direction. NX might be a Nintenphone.

@Grandpa_Pixel I am already there. I will buy a PS4 when it's last generation.I see no point in paying a premium to play right away, especially with Sony and Microsoft in a hurry to make their own consoles obsolete.

@darth2d2 Maybe I have just not spotted any exclusive killer titles? goes to look

EDIT: Only 12 games. 12 games I have "OMG" about. That actually makes me feel sad as there are tons on the Wii U. Yup, that is me convinced about my future for gaming. Nintendo or bust

It's not a portable but....the demand for the NES Classic Edition will be huge.

@Grandpa_Pixel Me neither. I've enjoyed my Xbox 360 quite a lot, and plan to get an Xbox One and maybe PS3 sometime later. It's just that outside of Nintendo's games, I do not like the general direction the industry is pointing at. I love me some Fallout, Dishonored, Bioshock and the like, but I need some color and joy in my games too, the childlike wonder of exploring a new Zelda, or jumping around in a new Mario game, for example. To this date, I haven't found any substitutes for those. I like to think of it as, I can sleep well enough if there's a new Xbox game out I haven't played yet, but I cannot sleep well if a new Zelda is out and I don't have the means to play it.

50mil is way too optimistic. Don't expect more than 20mil.

"The demand for dedicated portables isn't there"

[Looks at sales numbers]

Seems to be there a lot more than consoles..

I guess there's something to be said for having the right console at the right time. Clearly this was the case with the NES, DS, and Wii. Innovation can be successful as those three pieces of hardware have been. But, status quo can also be successful as its seems to work for Xbox and Playstation. (We see similar results with software.)

Whatever the NX ends up being I'm very confident that it will have great games from Nintendo. (As long as it's not Mario tennis, that is.)

@Prizm

This is more likely because a lot of people don't WANT to take it places. Not that they don't own one. That means your out quite a bit of money if it gets lost/damaged/stolen.

I only take my handhelds out when I'm going on a long car ride.

@cleveland124

Very true. The 3DS is way expensive. It's the reason we've got a 2DS.

@cleveland124
I thought the DS launched at around $150. Not saying you're wrong that price is a factor that is being overlooked (among many other factors) just that the $100 launch comparison seems unfair.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE I avoid smart devices as they're easy for people to hack and spy on you, Everyday run-of-the-mill hackers can do so, which is frightening tbh.

@Serebii I've never seen one of you in the wild...

Whatever they do, Nintendo shouldn't do it out of a position of fear, being happy with a smaller userbase and everything. Nintendo should stay ambitious, even with greater risks.

This is too bad, but I suppose Nintendo can only be expected to answer the call of market demand.

For my part, I like dedicated devices. I have a "work computer," and a phone for texting, calls, and productivity apps. I don't necessarily have all the time in the world to play games and I certainly can't while working, so it's nice to have the 3DS as a distinct thing that I can go to when I want to set aside work and play a quick game. When it's a separate device, there's really no temptation for distraction which (I think) allows better productivity in my case.

@ThanosReXXX
I mostly agree with you. Just wanted to point out that bringing up the number of mobile casual games that are popular on the device doesn't negate the presence of some successful deeper games.

They aren't the same though for many of the reasons you outlined. Some great card and board games that are deeper than most console games have carved out a niche on smart phones and especially tablets. Plus, strategy games can be very fun and convenient on mobile with many advantages over console and dedicated portable systems even — due to better GPU, resolution, etc.

It's a fascinating division of genres actually and it hinges mostly on the control methods and core features. There is some stunning innovation there that trickles back up into console gaming as well.

(There's also a successful niche of "game book" games that combine traditional game elements with choose-your-own-adventure style arrangements that are elevated by above-average stories and writing. These are sometimes more complex than you might expect and take dedication and strategy but would have no place on consoles whatsoever)

I completely agree that most gamers looking for deeper experiences aren't going to be satisfied by their mobile devices though. Even with Bluetooth controllers you are setting things up in an awkward way (compared to carrying it handily) that segments the market. It's just not worth targeting that kind of experience on mobile for most developers... so the big games in many genres don't go there.

The oddest part to me is that mobile should be perfect for RPGs (and there are some exceptional examples) but Asia seems happy with free-to-play slowly-make-you-broke style monetization which has, in my opinion, ruined the big entries from the genre as they target that market.

I sure am demanding dedicated portables, I guess I should demand louder then.

Nintendo has to convince people to also carry it's dedicated portable gaming devices because so many 11-year-old and ups have hand-me-down smartphones — it has only gotten more common since the 3DS launched. A potential hybrid NX also needs to take up space in your home entertainment system when not in use there because of a dock.

Dedicated gamers play on their home consoles and/or PCs and, by survey results, they apparently game on their smartphones too. So, not only is the ask by Nintendo to take it with you but also to be very granular in your approach to gaming.

I want something to play quick and handy: smartphone.
I want to have something portable that takes more time and dedication: NX with me.
I want to play a game with a friend on the go: NX with me... or maybe smartphone.
I want to game for a long session at home: NX brought home and hooked up... or leave it in bag and play PS4
I want to play the same game on the go: NX with me

It might be something that many gamers don't imagine themselves taking advantage of.

If NX is hybrid I'm expecting it to be pretty compelling for on-the-go play. But I don't use that much so what I'm really looking for is how good it will be as a home console.

Or probably just how good the games look.

@aaronsullivan Well, that is also why I said that there are some more serious games/deeper games or whatever label you want to give them, but they are still outnumbered a thousand to one, if not more on both Android and iOS.

And for me personally, there's just nothing there that can hold my interest for more than a few days, and believe me, I've tried an enormous amount of games.

With my first couple of decent smart phones I would have 1 or 2 pages of apps and 4 or 5 pages of games. All kinds because I thought I was going to continue playing them, but in the end I only kept 2 or 3 games that I did still enjoy after a couple of months and these are mostly casual games.

I just don't like the controls, no matter how good or innovative; they're still touch screen controls and your hands are still obscuring part of the screen when using them.

And like I said before: syncing/pairing an external controller with your smart device just isn't the same as a handheld.

I also tried a bunch of emulators, but that was the same story for me: it just wasn't able to grab and more importantly, hold my attention for long. Something my 3DS actually can, and still does to this day. That should also say something about what I think about the importance of graphics and their fidelity...

And the budgets for handheld games are also often times much, MUCH bigger, which will of course result in the games being better, deeper or longer lasting experiences.

And if I don't have a handheld near, then I like to control my RPG's or RTS games with a mouse and keyboard...

By the way: hope you're not going to be too disappointed if NX is not going to be a hybrid. The evidence against such a decidedly un-Nintendo device is fortunately starting to pile up rapidly...

@aaronsullivan

It did launch at $150 and the 3ds launched at $250 a 66% increase. The ds started slow too. The ds didn't take off until it hit the $130 less than a year after launch. Which is around the $100 mark I was saying is important.

@GamePerson19

Of course you should get a Snes. I am an unbiased source as I only have 3 of them.

"It started off well. But sales dropped considerably in the last few years. The demand for dedicated portables isn't there."

Err... has this guy even looked at how 3DS started? It was terrible. And the system itself was terrible. You can't tell anything from that.

@hepgius I actually knew several Older DS owners. Most were moms that played puzzle games and the brain training and nintendogs... They now have kindles and such... nintendo cannot compete with the ios app store or android store. (for casual i mean) The phone is just to damn convenient.

Nintendo Needs to go directly for hardcore games / gamers in my opinion, or become a third party dev. but nope, they are still chasing the "blue ocean".

Is this a joke? Prove the demand isn't there for portables when you consider that the Wii u was a flop and the DS was the biggest seller of all time, and 3ds is still going strong too. The PS Vita and PSP didn't do too bad either. Console systems connected to a TV are archaic and clunky. In this generation, people are on the move, and their game systems need to be also. That is why they are such a huge success.

"The demand for dedicated portables isn't there"

Lolololol basically EXACTLY what I've been saying on here for years yet no one wanted to hear it.

@Danrenfroe2016
Smartphones games are convenient ? Really ?
Touching the touch screen with fingers feels more uncomfort than touching the NDS or 3DS screen with stylus. Playing Cooking Mama on smartphones or moving the characters in RPG games with virtual buttons are more uncomfort than playing them on NDS or 3DS. My fingers can't accept that condition.

And don't worry. I still play my Nintendo games more than my smartphone. I owned a smartphone lately but almost never play 1 or 2 of my smartphone games (Just only Cooking Mama and Pokemon GO so far i owned). Even there are TONS of free games from Play Store, almost 99.99% not appealing me at all. Only a few (Can be counted by my fingers) games that appeals me (FF 9 and FF Tactics so far).

@gatorboi352 I agree!

@Anti-Matter everyone is different so respect everyone's opinion.
Smartphone games are more convenient as everyone has phones. Everyone doesn't carry their 3ds with them.
And if you do carry yours. Well done.
If I had choose between a phone and 3ds to carry. I'll carry my phone

My perception is that very little profit is made from the sale of consoles. They are a means to an end, selling games. That has been Nintendo's problem over the last few years, the lack of sales.

A simple solution would be to pull out of the home console market and sell their games via PS and Xbox. This would in effect triple their sales at least and possible a lot more.

Another way is to sell one game that is compatible with both the Wii U and the 3 ds.

That is the job of the NX.

@Anti-Matter I agree worth you 100% but... it's more convenient to allot of folks as they don't play games like us. They play games as time wasters, they will play Candi crush or whatever it is that people play on smart devices, just because it is so convenient because they already have it with them because they also text on it and make phone calls on it and watch Netflix on it and everything else, its always connected. They will not carry a 3ds or another gaming system with them just a play Candi crush and things like that.

It sad but I feel like gaming over all this getting so water down that it may be the best just to go retro and forget all the new stuff. Makes me sad.

Oh and there are a few amazing smart phone games. My favorite now is Sky Force Reloaded. It is a awful Micro transaction game but the gameplay and a mechanic send even the controls are absolutely top notch.

i play that game and Pokémon go that's the only two games I have on my phone right now.

3ds needs a price drop, period. It's crazy they still want $180-$200 for it. It should be $100 now.