
Nintendo will have had few annual financial reports that attracted as much interest as this week's release, with key details on game release windows, E3, mobile plans and a launch window for NX all coming out. In general the response was a mix of understanding, surprise and disappointment, depending on the topic, and now the dust has settled we can see some initial fallout.
First of all, in the first full day's trading following the announcements Nintendo's share value took a hit of over 8%, falling to 15,155 Yen. You can see the scale of the drop below, and it's the lowest the value has been since the start of April.

Bloomberg focused on Nintendo's mobile announcements in its reaction piece, namely the confirmation that Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem will be heading to phones and tablets this Autumn / Fall. Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Ace Research Institute in Tokyo, stated that the absence of Mario and Legend of Zelda in smartphone plans won't go down well with everyone.
Investors are not going to like. With the titles coming later in the year, earnings for the first half don't look so good. And people who expected NX to launch this year will also be disappointed.
It's also highlighted in that article, however, that Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem are franchises with notable strengths and target varied demographics. Pelham Smithers, from a London-based equity research firm, made the following point about the common sense in avoiding Mario for the time being.
If Mario is available on smartphones, then why buy into the closed world of Nintendo handheld gaming? Nintendo is going to delay releasing a Mario smartphone game until proven that it's the only way to monetize its key intellectual properties on mobile.
Gamesindustry.biz has also discussed key topics with industry analysts. IDC Research Director Lewis Ward, like many others, highlighted the Zelda Wii U delay as a tactical decision to push the focus onto NX.
It's a bit of a half-step approach, but it's understandable since Nintendo's console business has to be focused on making the NX a success at this point. The Wii U didn't meet expectations, and I don't blame Nintendo for shifting gears and trying to come as strongly out of the gate with NX as possible. Having a great Zelda title on day one will help.
Yes, the Wii U catalog is looking thin this holiday, but at this point I think Nintendo and everyone else can see the handwriting on the wall and it is pivoting towards whetting the appetite of its faithful fans for the NX.
SuperData's Joost van Dreunen echoed others in saying that these are challenging and slightly unpredictable times for the company. He's also made the key point, however, that Nintendo shouldn't be underestimated.
Historically, Nintendo has been in control of most of the value chain, integrating both hardware and software into a single ecosystem, but now that situation has changed. For one, digital distribution takes up almost one-fifth of software revenue (19%), and continues to grow year-over-year. In addition, its success with new revenue streams like the amiibo is growing, even as US sales for the toys-to-life category have started to flatten out. That provides necessary income in the midst of a volatile period, but it cannot cover the whole. Nintendo's international success - with Fire Emblem selling more outside of Japan (1.06M units compared to 780K) - has a greater exposure to currency fluctuations. And, finally, both of its key titles, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing, were initially conceived as console titles but have found their greatest degree of success on handhelds.
It shows that the games industry is, in fact, so volatile that even a powerhouse like Nintendo is not impervious to it. Nintendo's current game plan is likely to provide enough runway to develop a full strategy and rollout that capitalises on the current market changes. The thing to remember about Nintendo is to never count it out.
Overall, the general narrative is certainly that 2016 is a tough year for Nintendo in the console space, but there's interest in the planned Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem smart device releases. There's also understandable uncertainty about the prospects for NX, but that's inevitable due to the fact that we know next to nothing about the system that's coming in March 2017. Outside of speculation and rumours there are no solid details.
How do you feel about these issues around mobile, NX and the Legend of Zelda delay? Sound off in the comments.
Further Reading:
[source bloomberg.com, via gamesindustry.biz]
Comments 72
I called that one all over the internet!
Gee, I wonder why...?
@Spoony_Tech Everyone expected their stock to drop. The amazing thing was that the stock didn't drop like 25%. It would have been unshocking and a bit deserved.
It's clear these investors are not fully aware of the selling power of animal crossing
I predict that they will reveal the NX at the Tokyo Game Show. It'll be 6 months away from launch, which is plenty of time for the hype to stay alive until launch...
@XCWarrior I also expected a greater dip and maybe there will be more decline over the next few days. I also see it dipping after E3. I can't see much of any rebound for a while tbh.
Apparently the Wii U catalogue is looking thin this holiday, according to one analyst.
Does he know something I don't. There are no games coming out for Wii U this holiday!!!!
Wow only 8%? I was expecting an 50-70% drop.
@abe_hikura same here
EVERYONE FREAK OUT SOMETHING NORMAL HAPPENED
Almost a good time to buy some nintendo stock for cheap..
Investors are forecasting DOOM.
Everything is arriving later that what many expected, and the sales and profits aren't that high.
Still, the share price doesn't really matter at the moment. It'll be much more interesting to see the share price once Nintendo puts all its cards on the table and reveals the NX.
They need a unprecedented relationship again!
Duh Investors and stock market weren't happy so the stock went down. It's no secret that major investors visit sites such as NeoGaf, Gamespot, IGN and 4chan to gauge response to gaming stuff before deciding what to do with the stock.
Nearly all technology stocks are way down after most of them had modest quarterly reports.
Apple is down over 8% due to investors and the market being unhappy with their quarterly results of $10.5 Billion in profit
Alphabet/Google is down just shy of 8% after their quarterly report a week ago.
Microsoft's stock is down 8.12% over their quarterly report rattled the market.
EA's stock is down over 4% over their quarterly report.
Activision/Blizzard are down almost 2% over their quarterly report.
Sony is down nearly 3% over their quarterly report.
Take Two is down nearly 4% over their quarterly report.
Ubisoft is nearly down 2% since their quarterly report.
Twitter dropped almost 13% on their quarterly report.
Etc...
The stock markets have been rattled the past few days tanking lots of stock down with them.
The thing is that Nintendo needed this year to be a comeback from last year, not 2017.
Who cares, honestly. Someone farts and stock markets go down by 10%.
@Wouwter
Because significant drops can lead to credit and liquidity issues.
But since most Japanese companies are cash rich and not really dependent on credit, it doesn't bother them as much.
Like I posted Microsoft, Apple and Google are down almost as much as Nintendo because of their quarterly reports.
Told my wife probably an 8% drop last night. Then I woke up and the Nikkei was down 3.6%. So I consider 8% pretty good after all the "no's" yesterday.
@rjejr
The question is who's stock will drop further before rebounding...
Microsoft
Nintendo
Google/Alphabet
Apple
They are all neck in neck in drops.
@rjejr Love the new graphic.
@Acein210 Actually, since the year is looking kind of meh for Nintendo, that stock price may decline more. That's the time to buy in.
This kind of fits into my wheelhouse. Once upon a time it was my job to study thing like this, and while I was disappointed initially, I completely understand what Nintendo with just one exception.
Generally following announcements like this, you will see a fall in stock price. You have to understand. Companies stock value falls even if they meet expectations. It is only natural that after these announcement you would see a fall for Nintendo.
All that said, Nintendo is basically mailing in the first six to eight months of the next fiscal. Now the sale of the Seattle Mariners could generate them as much as $600 million in cash. That coupled with the $5 billion they have in cash on hand, Nintendo should be find, and quite likely they will show a profit despite the thin software lineup.
The one exception I have to Nintendo strategies is the delaying of Zelda. I would have probably just move this to the NX. I don't think the install base of Wii U is enough to warrant much of a backlash. I understand that they promised Zelda for Wii U, but they also promised Zelda for Wii U this year so how much face are they really saving?
@Xenocity thanks for the context, I have little understanding of the stock market so it sounded a lot worse before I read that
maaaaan, i am hoping this is some serious ninten-jitsu that's going on here... not feeling good about any of this. in fact, i'm starting to worry that they don't want to release during the holiday because they don't feel they can compete with with Sony's 4K/VR, and that would definately not bode well if true.
No wonder stock went down, Nintendo just announced that they won't be bringing out much of anything for the next year, pinning their hopes on the NX (a device we know literally nothing about), so no big surprise in the reaction they get...
@Spoony_Tech Depending on how long Nintendo decides to hold off showing NX, us average gamers might be able to afford some Nintendo stock.
Though if people would have just bought stock instead of amiibos, we'd own Nintendo by now.
@day
It has little to do with Sony and more to do component suppliers behind schedule.
You also forget that practically every company in the world launching products to meet the U.S. Holiday period to the point is vastly overcrowded and overwhelming for everyone.
U.S. Holiday period so hyper competitive that only those who do the most marketing tend to win out.
Companies for the past few years have been launching their products in the other parts of the year, because they get more attention and better sales, with less competition.
@Kid_Sickarus
Stock market reacts based on many things and your stock can tank due to non related global variables.
Investors are becoming more and more panicky as the global economy inches ever closer to stagnation and possible recession.
To get a good bump for a yearly or quarterly reports, you have to beat the market's expectations, despite how crazy their expectations maybe.
Just doing good to decent profit and sales are not good enough.
Investors want high growth and high profit.
Who knows what the big N is thinking. I'm not that sure they know these past 4 or so years.
NX is the final console chance. The other issue is that after 2 years of NX, Sony and Microsoft will be ready to release their next consoles.
It's too little too late. Again.
Animal crossing is pretty much the best choice for mobile.
It's a Huge series. Last two handheld games sold 10 million+. A spinoff sold over 3 million in under a year and got people to buy 25 million Amiibo cards. Both AC and mobile are huge in Japan. It's gonna make a lot of money.
@Xenocity "The question is who's stock will drop further before rebounding..."
No, I think the real questions are who's stocks will rebound sooner and end up higher? All those others may have reason to rise sooner. Nitneod saying "no NX at E3" means they have little reason for the stock to rise for months. If ever.
@mjharper In light of yesterday's news I'm seriously considering changing it to this. I was away on vacation for a couple of days though and and still trying to wrap my head around all of it and see if it's as bad as it seems at first glance.
@BensonUii didn't shareholders throw a fit because the first mobile app wasn't Mario and shares drop like 9%
Its interesting that it seems "no Mario on Mobile" had a greater effect on the shares than "we have very little happening this year"
"And, finally, both of its key titles, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing, were initially conceived as console titles but have found their greatest degree of success on handhelds."
Probably because they haven't released a full-fledged game for either franchise on a home console this generation. If they actually released an Animal Crossing or Fire Emblem on the Wii U, I'd buy it.
@jarvismp its entirely possible Sony and MS could have torpedoed the console business in those TWO years. People are freaking out because Nintendo retired an console in little under 5 years. Sony is rumoured to be outdating their own machine in 3.
Not a lot of people are going to respond well to their £400 systems being out of date within 3 years, combine with sony mentioning theres a possibility of no ps5 console. Which suggests Sony might abandon the normal console cycle in favour for an apple styled staggered one. MS seems happy to make their home system more irrelevant in order to shore their PC business.
If you're expected to pay out £400 every 3 years for your console to stay relevant (prices wont get cheaper with each revision) suddenly PC doesn't seem so expensive.
(I'm fully aware the rumour says the Sony wont let anyone make an NEO exclusive game but exclusives wont cause the backlash, It will be when an base game runs terribly AKA the Hyrule Warriors Legends trap.
Anyone selling Make Nintendo Great Again hats?
@MrPuzzlez I think it might be the first place people will get the chance to play it. I reckon they're saving the NX reveal for a huge Direct.
@ottospooky That is not true. Don't forget the Indie market. There are a ton of games due out this year. They just aren't coming from Nintendo itself.
One can assume Retro has a new Metroid or IP that will release WITH or in the release window of the NX. There's gotta be a new Mario game (maybe a new Galaxy). I think they'll have their ducks in a row THIS time. But they need to start building hype at E3 and at least an ounce more than Zelda.
Time to buy Nintendo stock.
@mjharper Pretty sure @rjejr is trying to get in on some of Pikachu's vibe....
Other than some great games on Wii U, ever since it released Nintendo has done virtually nothing to inspire confidence. The last 3-4 years has just felt like an endless stream of stop-gap measures. I hate to write or even think anything negative about the future of Nintendo, but man does it need to step up pretty soon and start swinging some big-hitters.
That's to be expected. Anyways, if it means a stronger launch for the NX, then I'm fine with the delays. I can deal with the horrible Wii U holiday lineup. I own a 3DS and a PS4 as well, plus there's always my backlog.
As for the mobile titles, I'm looking forward to them
I wonder if these analysts have better things to do than make unpopular opinions.
So if you have Nintendo shares and you have just lost 8% of your investment would you sell before it drops any further or hold tight and hope they recover risking another drop?
I might sell, since Nintendo are not giving any real reason why I should hang on to the shares. Do I want to risk anymore of my money on two letters. NX. It time Nintendo woke up and told us what we are waiting for.
Sometimes I think these analysts are no different than talk show pundits . . . . stating opinions so definitely because it is perceived as straight truth rather than gossip and guesswork.
@zool: Hold on for the long term. Like Warren Buffet says, if I'm buying a farm, I'm buying a farm for 20-30 years, not for tomorrow.
So the stock drops a little. It'll bounce back. As much as I don't like how things look for the prospects of 2016 as a Nintendo fan, I think they're doing what they have to do.
With all these PS4K and updated Xbox One rumours about Nintendo may simply be playing wait and see to know what their competition will be. If Nintendo's "next generation" machine NX will only match the PS4K which will probably be shown at e3, then Nintendo would be smart to hold off and rethink their specs before they go public and for the third time in a row launch a machine that only matches the previous generation.
Also by not revealing the NX at e3, Nintendo can time it's reveal to purposely take some wind out of PS VR and the Xmas rush. Show off the NX and there'll be some people that decide to save their Christmas money for the NX launch. If Nintendo aren't ready to launch for Christmas it's the smartest thing they could do.
Won't pretend that NX launching in March seemed like a great idea to me at first, or even now. But if they can have enough games ready by then and some worthwhile third-party choices at and following launch it might be beneficial to the company and device. Here's hoping it turns out well for Nintendo hardware fans like myself.
@Xenocity Were we given a reason for the launch window? i didn't think we were...
But still, launching after the holidays is a tough sell... Families have just kicked out a bunch of cash, so they're not likely to be in the mood for more significant purchases.
furthermore, if nintendo doesn't give me enough juicy detail to encourage me to hold out for a NX (...assuming it's a strong enough console to have a good reason...), i'll seriously be considering jumping in the Sony VR bandwagon, and waiting until next christmas for NX when i'm certain the library will be more fleshed out (past launches ain't giving me the warm fuzzies)... and that hurts to say... i haven't gone Sony since PS 2, and even that was secondhand
This is what concerns me: if the console is not a strong enough contender with the PlayStation, gamers that are tired of justifying their patience with Nintendo are going to delay their purchases (and impact sales figures) because Sony's the one that's truly offering them a new experience.
Getting payed to do nothing all day and just say some random stuff from time to time, sounds like a dream job to me. Why did I not become an analyst? (this is supposed to be a clown-nose face, don't take this comment seriously, duh)
You go away for half a day and the whole world and people on here are screaming about a totally natural (and very expected) percentage.
My educated guess is that once all the idiots get the knots out of their undergarments, and get to drool all over the Zelda presentation at E3 (which they WILL do, regardless of all the disappointment because of the lack of other software titles), stocks will once again rise, and it will probably be more than 8% and even before that, I expect things to more or less level out.
Things like this nearly always happen when someone is shaking things up a bit: first a little dip and then things will slowly go up once again. It's just an average day in the world of stock exchange, nothing to write home or worry about...
Lol at all the dumb comments talking about expecting a harsher drop or Nintendo having deserved it...
Wow, what a surprise. I'm sure this doesn't have to do anything with their late announcements...
I'm confident Nintendo will right the ship. If the NX is not a hybrid they could still have a good Christmas season by being creative with the New 3DS and either drop the price or offer a compelling bundle or both.
@day If by new experience you mean VR, then you have a point to some extent, otherwise you have none. With the normal Playstation, Sony is giving it's fans the exact same thing as the previous two consoles, except bigger and better looking, same as Microsoft does. There is almost nothing unique or differentiating between the two and the things that were (PS Camera and Kinect 2.0), have been dropped faster than you can say "Nintendo will only have Zelda in playable form at this year's E3".
As for Sony, the difference will be that the VR package is going to be pretty expensive, since the new PS4.5 is expected to cost around $399, then there is the VR headset, going for somewhere between $299 - $399 and you will also need a PS Camera which will set you back another $150, so all in all, that's nearly a thousand dollars. I'm pretty sure not a whole lot of people are going to buy that entire package...
The only interesting thing about it is that new adapters of the Playstation brand will be able to buy a premium version of the PS4 that is actually able to hold a steady frame rate and 1080p resolution, contrary to the current version.
Other than that, there isn't going to be any plus side for Sony or a threat to either Nintendo or Microsoft since Sony has already confirmed that there will be NO special software (outside of some VR stuff) for the new PS4.5 because they want all the titles to work on the regular PS4 too. They will just have extras incorporated into the software that will detect if you are running on a newer console or not, giving you some extras, but definitely nothing earth shattering.
So, all Nintendo has to do is give us a system that is on par or slightly stronger than the current PS4, or equal to the PS4.5 and then the Xbox One will be the weakest system, but all consoles will then be able to run the entire catalog of third party software that will be published from then on, and obviously the older titles too.
This really isn't all that difficult to grasp, as long as you try and look at it objectively and with an open and inquisitive mind.
No surprise here. Nintendo really should've handled this thing a bit better. They seem a bit distant...
@TheRealThanos I think it's a little less black and white than that. yes, i mostly mean VR, but when i look at what Sony provides their customers, i see that at least they're being responsive.
now, unfortunately their fanbase isn't as refined as the Nintendo fanbase, my opinion, but at least they're getting what they asked for... With Nintendo, I'm starting to wonder if i'm getting the same... maybe my demands are too high, but i'm having trouble seeing them as though they are.
Lol, 8% is nothing. At the same time it is all relative. 8% falloff of MS or Apple stock is not quite the same as an 8% fall for Nintendo, don't let the figures fool you. Nintendo stock wasn't that amazing in the first place.
Until Nintendo give a better roadmap concerning the NX why should anyone invest? The mobile side of things look promising but until some hard figures show up it is just potential.
After the way Nintendo approached and dealt with the Wii U investors want to see if they have learnt and change their strategy.
From the way they are already going about the NX I would say no, but it may be too early to tell.
I expected far worse, so that's the good news.
I think putting AC and FE on mobile rather than Mario and Zelda is a great idea. They're both very popular IPs that have grabbed Western attention fairly recently, so they aren't viewed as old hat the way Mario and Zelda are.
And the stock will then go up once nintendo releases the NX. The stock market is always like that, that's why it's a gambling investment. I've watched all my stock that I have go up and down...it's just knowing when to sell shares and when to buy shares. I don't own any shares from nintendo, would think about it, but may not until I know that they do a little better.
Why buy a console if you can play Mario on a mobile device? Simple. Mobile gaming sucks. They can easily do this and in fact drive traffic to their consoles if tgey do this right
@TheRealThanos
"With the normal Playstation, Sony is giving it's fans the exact same thing as the previous two consoles, except bigger and better looking, same as Microsoft does. There is almost nothing unique or differentiating between the two and the things that were (PS Camera and Kinect 2.0), have been dropped faster than you can say "Nintendo will only have Zelda in playable form at this year's E3"."
And yet, both of those consoles are outselling the Wii U INDIVIDUALLY.
You can keep the NDF nonsense over there, thank you.
@zool I understand the position you may take in selling, but there are other variables when it comes to owning stock. Nintendo is a cash rich company. It has relatively no debt. So debt to equity is off the charts good.
While the forecast for Wii U isn't significant, they just added $600 million in cash with the sale of there stake in the Mariners. That will put the company close to $6 billion in cash.
Effectively, they could shut down for the rest of the year and still show a profit. I think Wall Street would at the worst put a hold on them.
I think that in a way is good for them to keep the nx info out if reach, a lot of times their ideas have been copied.
Not really a big drop. And common after an investor's briefing.
@gatorboi352 That was not the point, but thanks anyway, mr. smartypants, and what the hell is NDF?
I'm done with Nintendo. I own all their consoles and hundreds of games.
I have been waiting for the new Zelda for wiiu since I bought it early on 2013
If Zelda is not released by the end of 2016 they will loose me forever.
I tired of being lied to and there's nothing for me to play on my wiiu for the rest of the year, this is worst than the drought of 2013. From now on I'll just stick to multiplatforms and indi games on PC
@day "but when i look at what Sony provides their customers, i see that at least they're being responsive"
Oh, no argument there, and the same can more or less be said about Microsoft, and Nintendo is the odd man out. Lately seemingly being all Japanese and quirky just for the sake of it, but for some reason I need to be able to believe that they are not and there is actually a method behind the madness.
I guess the reveal of the NX, and the healthy amount of release day titles I am now expecting will show that. (or not)
"now, unfortunately their fanbase isn't as refined as the Nintendo fanbase, my opinion, but at least they're getting what they asked for... With Nintendo, I'm starting to wonder if i'm getting the same... maybe my demands are too high, but i'm having trouble seeing them as though they are."
Agreed again, but even though they are now not doing what they should be doing, I'm holding on to a careful bit of optimism that they will somehow land on their feet again.
In general, I like people or companies that dare to take risks and whatever else you can say of them, Nintendo does just that.
And with taking risks comes the obvious danger of not getting it right every time, which is what happened with the Wii U (and arguably already with the Wii) but if they are truly moving away from that, than it will at the very least be a better situation.
Of course I'm hoping they'll knock it out of the park, but that is probably a bit too optimistic for now...
Still looking forward to the Zelda only show, though...
@fortius54 I understand what you say and I don't disagree. But, 8% can be decision time for some smaller investors or smaller managed funds. Any decrease in share price is not a good sign. Ok, if you are in for the long hall you know prices will go down as well as up. But fund managers may hold on to shares that have gone down waiting for them to recover and then re-evaluate.
Nintendo has had a bad few years and they are holding future plans close to their chest, that does not shout confidence to me
These are interesting times for Nintendo, l just hope they can pull it off or its curtains for them
These are interesting times for Nintendo, l just hope they can pull it off or its curtains for them
They were right, never underestimate the power of Nintendo.
Nintendo treat their business plan like a challenging strategy game. It ain't over until the last second.
@rjejr
None of those companies have a reason to rise sooner.
Android growth is negative, Google's ad revenue isn't growing fast anymore and they don't have new product to drive profits.
Microsoft is seeing it's business software sales stagnate as companies aren't upgrading their software and hardware because of economic instability.
Windows 10 hasn't been driving revenues.
Xbox One is struggling to hit 20M and Microsoft won't release any numbers on it.
Windows 10 phones are dead in the water and are cost Microsoft money.
PC market is still contracting significantly each quarter.
Windows 10 first quarter saw a 7% decline in the PC market.
Apple's iPhone sales are barely growing compared to last year.
Their Mac sales are barely growing
Their other hardware is barely growing.
Their software is barely growing
iTunes is seeing digital music sales fall of a cliff as everyone moves to streaming and piracy (Apple is not the only one being hit hard by it).
Etc...
Activision will probably recover once the new Call of Duty breaks launch numbers at the end of the year.
But they still aren't going to be at E3.
EA might see a recovery, but none of their new products are actually selling well (Star Wars doesn't count as they co-developed it with Disney) .
EA won't be at E3 either.
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