@JaxonH So I only saw the headline, and took it to be the usual "We should have let it bake a bit more in the oven instead of rushing it out", but it would actually be kinda funny, although it would make sense, that the CEO of Ubisoft would be the one to confirm the existence of a new Console...
Kinda makes me wonder if we'll hear a little "We have a new console on the way, but please look forward to these games" kind of segment?
We haven't even had images leaked from manufacturing yet. Usually we see those a couple months before an announcement. I assume Nintendo would want six months of lead time between announcement and launch. So we probably won't hear a peep until September, at the earliest.
That's assuming it'll be a 2024 launch. Which...I don't subscribe to.
I maintain an announcement in 2025 for release in early 2026.
Switch Physical Collection - 1,184 games (as of September 14th, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay
@Magician Oh yeah no I just meant like, just saying "The next iteration of Switch is in the works, please look forward to more details in the future", which in fairness they may not do to cannibalize sales, but who knows...
The moment Nintendo mention new hardware Switch sales will fall off a cliff and software sales will stagnate. Nintendo can't do that. They've got a target of 15 million Switches to sell this year and we're in a recession. Gamers of every degree, whether casual or hardcore, will immediately begin scrimping and saving for new hardware and new games the moment that announcement drops.
Switch Physical Collection - 1,184 games (as of September 14th, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay
Yup, the hype and anticipation for tomorrow's Direct is palpable. Doubly so for me considering I had assumed Nintendo were skipping June in favor of a September Direct. I just hope this Direct won't be simply wall-to-wall DLC.
"DLC for Splatoon 3, DLC for Pokemon, DLC for Tears of the Kingdom, DLC for Sparks of Hope.
That's all folks. We'll see you again soon." -Nintendo
Switch Physical Collection - 1,184 games (as of September 14th, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay
It's true an announcement will plummet sales. But that is why I believe they'll announce mid-January with a late March or April release. 60-90 day build up just like Switch got. Only difference would be skipping the October tease.
That said, it's entirely possible they tease this October just like they did for Switch. Would that kill holiday sales? Not so sure. Most core Switch fans already have one or have upgraded to the OLED. Holidays sales are normie sales made via Mario Kart bundles, and normies won't be tuned into a tease made mere weeks prior to Black Friday, nor will they likely care anyways. Yet it would give Nintendo plausible deniability against accusations of "tricking" people onto buying Switch right before Switch 2. I think avoiding such accusations matters to them, and they're willing to risk a small hit to sales, while at the same time attempting to minimize the impact on holiday sales to normies.
Either way, I expect Switch 2 to be fully confirmed and revealed by the end of January, at the latest.
As for the Direct, I think we'll see the new Mario, Fire Emblem Holy War, Metal Gear Solid Collection, Persona 3 Reload, Final Fantasy Tactics Remastered (please be HD-2D, even though I know it won't be), Pikmin 4 details, Metroid Prime 2/3 HD, F-Zero GX HD, and some random 3rd party stocking stuffers.
I know there's talk of Paper Mario TTYD Remastered, but... I'll believe it when I see it.
The wildcard would be Nintendo stretching this generation one more year to holiday 2024 / spring 2025. I used to think that was the release window but, I've since changed my mind. It feels too paper thin. Interest is waning. If they admit it'll be a struggle to even hit 15m this FY, they'll be fighting to climb out of single digits the year after. And that is exactly why they've struggled with past generational transitions. Waiting too long, letting interest fizzle out, not striking while the iron is still somewhat hot. If they have truly learned lessons and are taking the PS approach, they'll go out with a bang on their final year, and I think having a new Fire Emblem, new Zelda, new Pikmin, new Mario, etc fits that bill perfectly.
PLAYING
Trails of Cold Steel 3, Rain Code, Pikmin HD, Zelda TotK
MOST WANTED
Pikmin 4, Batman Arkham Trilogy, Super Mario RPG, Super Mario Bros Wonder, Persona 5 Tactica
Too bullish, imo. I think maybe...folks who are hopeful for a 2024 Switch-successor launch don't quite grasp how white hot Switch still is at retail? Yes, it's trending downwards, all platforms do eventually. But tens of millions of consoles sold in one year is still more than many classic platforms had sold in their entire lifetimes. Saturn, Dreamcast, TG-16, PS Vita, Wii U, etc.
No.
Looking at the investor Q & A back in May (question #4, paragraph three), it screams to me that Nintendo are going to milk the Switch until it's dry.
"From that standpoint as well, we believe that how we maintain a high level of consumers actively playing Nintendo dedicated video game platforms while transitioning to the next generation of hardware will be a very important topic going forward. However, at this stage, we believe that our top priorities are maintaining and expanding the utilization of Nintendo Switch, which has entered its
seventh year since launch, and maintaining business momentum." -Furukawa
60-90 day build up just like Switch got.
60-90 days? We were aware of the NX in 2015. Two years before the 2017 launch. Do we currently have anything on the Switch successor beyond chipset supposition?
Switch Physical Collection - 1,184 games (as of September 14th, 2023)
Favorite Quote: "Childhood is not from birth to a certain age and at a certain age the child is grown, and puts away childish things. Childhood is the kingdom where nobody dies." -Edna St. Vincent Millay
@JaxonH If they were truly taking the "do or die" approach they mentioned about years ago, they would've launched new hardware with TotK because launching new hardware with a new 3D Zelda has a 100% success rate. Given that didn't happen, I think they're going to do what they did with Wii and try to keep the Switch going as long as possible because Switch is still a success meanwhile the successor could flop. Spring 2024 reveal with Fall/Holiday 2024 release sounds a reasonable guess but no earlier.
@Magician
I wouldn't say I'm hopeful for it. Well... I take that back. I am. But my desire isn't impacting my reasoning. My conclusion is entirely logic-based and has nothing to do with emotion or desire whatsoever.
I absolutely agree they'll milk it. But they'll milk it while also selling Switch 2. PS4 sold 20 million units it's final year. Switch is going to struggle to hit 15. Waiting any longer is just repeating the exact same mistakes they've made in the past, and Nintendo have made it abundantly clear they intend to not repeat those mistakes.
Of course they're gonna talk the talk like Switch will be around forever. That's their job. They have to convince consumers to buy. You gotta read deeper if you want to find out what's really going on in their minds.
@Grumblevolcano
Don't think Zelda is the only option. They could have learned from their past mistakes going out with a whimper and this time tried to replicate PS4-PS5 transition with a banger year. There are other launch titles just as good as Zelda, such as 3D Mario or Mario Kart, and with a TotK complete edition with new season pass, it can still muster quite a bit of pull on the side.
Only reason Zelda had a 100% success rate is they only did it twice, and just so happened to do it with their smash hit systems. Guarantee you launching Zelda with Wii U or GameCube would have done nothing to change their fates. Launching Zelda is a great strategy, but it is far from the only one. And the strategy I see them taking requires not just a massive launch title, but a massive final year to build momentum and interest as much as possible going into the transition, just like PS did. And that will certainly be their template next time.
PLAYING
Trails of Cold Steel 3, Rain Code, Pikmin HD, Zelda TotK
MOST WANTED
Pikmin 4, Batman Arkham Trilogy, Super Mario RPG, Super Mario Bros Wonder, Persona 5 Tactica
@JaxonH, @Magician e @Grumblevolcano Nintendo will milk this fortune cow that is Switch until is dry, and then it anouce it sucessor, but let hope Nintendo has learned, and anounce Switch sucessor when Switch hype is still hot
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