Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@chiiizu I'm sure there's tons of stuff I glossed over when I played it years ago. I've always been a surface level thinking gamer anyway. Lots of things fly right over my head for the most part lol

Mixed feelings on Pokemon Legends ZA being a 2025 release. On one hand, I'm relieved that they're taking extra development time and not forcing it out the door for this year. Pokemon very much needed a breather.

But man... without Pokemon in the holiday season I have no idea how Nintendo intends to keep Switch momentum going this year. Their lineup through the first half of this year is incredibly niche outside of Peach. I worry that this could be a "Wii fall of the cliff" type moment for them. I don't think Prime 4 is enough to anchor a holiday season either - that's a game that's bigger in internet list wars and hype than in actual sales performance.

@IceClimbers

The gap between Arceus and ZA is nice to see, perhaps it'll be less broken on arrival than Scarlet and Violet were?

I imagine Nintendo intend to coast for the next twelve months. Plenty of games yet to be released between now and the NG Switch's announcement and launch. Worrying about a multi-million dollar corporation is silly. I'd like to believe they're more solvent than a potential nine-month downturn in momentum.

Couldn't be worse than that Sony statement of "no new first party announcements in 2024".

That 10 billion loss in Sony stock value was gnarly.

@NintendoByNature I mean if you're not scholarly analyzing and cross-referencing every bit of dialogue and text, the game essentially tells you nothing. Seeing the lengths the community goes through to figure anything out at all is truly insane, I fully believe you could be laser-focused on even two or three playthroughs and not be able to figure out an enormous chunk of the lore. (heck, so much of the accepted lore is technically just theories based on all the cryptic allusions the game has) The story is great, but to anyone who isn't a fanatic, it's incomprehensible without outside help.

@IceClimbers Yeah I really didn't expect to feel so shaky about the Switch's future all of the sudden. Like can anything realistic feasibly carry the switch to next March?

@IceClimbers
At this point, Nintendo could completely disengage from Switch development and sell 15m consoles in the FY on back catalog alone. I don't think Pokemon game #7 was bringing in any new Switch gamers that the first 6 didn't already persuade.

Switch won't fall off a cliff like Wii because Switch isn't a fad like Wii. The Wii dropped as casuals lost interest and quickly moved on. The Switch has a sustainable customer base that's far more engaged and less fickle. New customers are buying for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, not whatever big holiday title they may or may not have (not to say those can't help boost adoption rate) but for sure, the majority of Switch sales now are on back catalog.

It'll be a light year. Splatoon 3 Side Order, Mario vs DK, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion 2, Endless Ocean, Paper Mario The Thousand Year Door, probably Metroid Prime 2 Remastered and Metroid Prime 3 Remastered leading up to (if we're lucky!) Metroid Prime 4 this holiday. And I'm sure they have a few more surprises tucked away for H2 to coast to the finish line and push at the tape.

3rd party releases like Unicorn Overlord, Penny's Big Breakaway, Ys IX, Trails Through Daylight, Star Wars Battlefront Collection and Dark Forces Remaster, Eiyuden Chronicles, World of Goo 2, Ace Combat 7, Fantasy Life I, Sonic Generations Remaster, Super Monkey Ball Banana Rumble, Epic Mickey, Perhaps either Decapolice or Professor Layton...

These are smaller, more niche titles but the kind of stuff gamers like us tend to salivate over. Meanwhile the bulk of new sales will be for evergreen mainstream titles. Not a massive, impressive year by any means, but enough to keep joycon in hand another year until the new era begins.

As an aside, I can't believe they did it! They finally freaking did it!

VB is a console I wouldn't care to play on Switch. But 3DS? Yes please...

https://www.retrorgb.com/virtual-boy-emulation-finally-arrive...

@IceClimbers I disagree like LM3 sold 13.98 million so LM2 wouldn’t be niche. Anyway, so far the 2024 lineup is:

• January - Another Code Recollection
• February - Mario vs. Donkey Kong
• March - Princess Peach Showtime
• May - Endless Ocean Luminous
• Summer - Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD
• 2024 - Paper Mario The Thousand-Year Door

Considering this, it feels like there’s 2 likely outcomes:

• Direct around April to fill in the gaps for the rest of the year and announce release dates for LM2/TTYD. In this outcome, TTYD is June at the earliest.
• In the very near future (e.g. later this week) TTYD gets a trailer with an April release, LM2 gets a release date for June/July sometime within the next few months and a Direct happens around June to fill in the gaps for the 2nd half of the year. See how barren the 2nd half of 2023 was before the June Direct for example.

I’m leaning towards the former.

@Grumblevolcano That assumes LM2 is their June title. It should be a 5+ million seller, so by default it's their biggest seller of their known lineup. Still, out of what we know is launching (and has launched) in the 1st half of this year, everything but Peach is very niche.

@JaxonH That's fair. The question is though, how much further can Switch's back catalog carry the system? That remains to be seen. Regardless, there's still plenty to play this year and I've got a backlog to get through!

@IceClimbers
Hard to say, but I imagine it's been carrying the system for at least the last year or so already. Not because big games haven't released, but because the backlog in totality is just so much more appealing to someone who doesn't yet own the system.

Sure, to us it may feel like old news. But to the consumer who has yet to buy a Switch, all the hype and excitement we experienced for each and every one of those titles is all balled up into one big impulse purchase.

Assuming Switch 2 never came, I think Switch could do another 13m through Mar 2025, another 9m through Mar 2026, another 5m through Mar 2027, another 2m through Mar 2028, and from there on out it would likely total another 1m the rest of its production run, just barely crossing 170 million units sold over its lifetime.

With Switch 2 releasing 2025, I'd curtail that estimate to 160 million sold over its lifetime.

But what do I know. I'm just pulling numbers out of the air lol!

@IceClimbers Nintendo problaby have some games to it sleeve, i would not doom ourselfs, before knowing Nintendo’s line up for this year

If everyone could stop saying this is a dry year, that would be great. Do folk not like video games these days?

@GrailUK I remember 2023 was a dry year and Nintendo had no notable releases past Zelda in May.

And then the June Direct happened.

Nintendo is suiying Switch emulator Yuzu over claims of piracy and IP agressivo

@GrailUK IKR? I keep looking at my bank account and crying. But you have to remember the majority of people play a very small percentage of games. So to them games only come out when their favorite franchise comes out. And if it is a dead franchise or one with long development time…then that turns into the hyperbolic droughts folks complain about. That and people refuse to wait for announcements. (And they forget about stuff that was announced but isn’t out yet.)

I only get anxious until like two weeks before release. Because then I turn into a 5 year old. Is it out yet?? Granted usually i have multiple new games coming out a month so it isn’t that bad. Plus the backlog…..

@Ryu_Niiyama Yeah. My wallet is suing me for misconduct

@Ryu_Niiyama
majority of people play a very small percentage of games. So to them games only come out when their favorite franchise comes out. And if it is a dead franchise or one with long development time…then that turns into the hyperbolic droughts folks complain about

That sums it up better than I've ever been able to articulate. Naturally, people only follow the games they care about and ignore the ones they don't, so any game which doesn't fall into that bucket of "for me" is relegated insignificant, ergo, may as well not even exist, hence the "no games" perspective. To such a person, there really aren't any games, because nothing else exists to them.

What ppl mean to say is (or should mean to say) is there aren't any games for me. And that's undoubtedly true for a good many mainstream gamers. Sometimes there's not anything that will appeal to you. But I promise it'll be OK. Life will go on if a few months go by where this plastic box of electronic wires doesn't provide a leisurely activity involving interactive videos with buttons that specifically appeals to your particularly refined entertainment pallette.

While new games and new announcements are most certainly exciting, I do find it fascinating how many people there are who say they need something to play and hype up a release, then once it comes out they don't have time for it, for whatever reason. Then it's back to wanting more announcements and releases, and they still haven't gotten back to the last announced and released game they were excited for.

I think it's excitement for the anticipation, not the games themselves, that many feed on. So once a game is out, that anticipation is gone, so it's off to the next one.

Just looking at sales figures though, stuff like Unicorn Overlord would be fortunate to crack 1 million, and it may do so, but 2 million is almost certainly its ceiling. Out of how many players spanning Switch, Steam and PS? Over a third of a BILLION people? It's as you say, either most people just play mainstream titles and that's it, so there's these long stretches of "nothing" in between, or people have a very limited appetite and aren't interested in branching out to try various types of games that fall outside of their normal comfort zone. Just as most dual sticks players continue to reject gyro without ever truly giving it a chance because they don't want to invest the time to acquire new skills when the game can just aim on their behalf, so too do many players reject the overwhelming majority of genres because they don't want to invest the time to acquire new skills when they can just replay FPS #37 or open world adventure #19, and continue to go through the motions of what they're comfortable with.

I don't think Switch is at risk of falling off a cliff like the Wii did. Very different circumstances. The Wii had a sharp rise thanks to it being a fad but then also on the other side was crunched by the adoption of HDTVs and the release of Kinect/PSMove

The Switch by comparison has been a slow burn and the pressures on it now aren't anywhere near as strong as "HD Gaming". They certainly exist and I don't expect Switch to look too hot if Nintendo go deep into 2025 with nothing to say. But we're not looking at an imminent cliff here. And I don't think another Pokemon, or lack thereof, is the thing that's going to tip it one way or the other

I'm still annoyed that VB wasn't on the 3DS VC. I know Nintendo wants to pretend that console never happened but come on. 3DS was the platform to do this on and will probably be the last platform where it makes any sense. Sure, maybe Switch 4 or something has a holographic screen or something but.... 3DS, it was right there!

I've heard the theory that the only hindrance to the Switch's momentum could be saturation. That everyone who might be interested in owning a Switch has already bought one. But I feel even that isn't much of a speed bump. Switch is just about every core gamer's favorite secondary device (unless they prefer one of the many portable PCs like the Deck).

Between Sony fanboys and Xbox fanboys that means what....roughly 200m potential customers?

Isn't the Switch only at 140m sold at the moment?

@Magician
Ya. That's a good point.

Switch has such crazy momentum because it has broad appeal to so many demographics.

• Nintendo console fans: may only be 5-10 million that fall in this category but that's still 5-10m. Including the docking feature secured this demographic.
• Nintendo handheld fans: accounting for Wii U overlap, probably 65-70 million in this category. Switch appeals to them, obviously.
• PS fans: I doubt the diehard loyalists would climb off their high horse long enough to grab a Switch off the shelf and check out, but that's a vocal minority. 10-20 million tops. Most PS fans are normal gamers and don't feel it's a betrayal to own a 2nd console. Not all of them are attracted to the Switch, but a good many are. It may not be their main console, but that doesn't matter. All that matters is they're gamers, and Switch not only offers them exclusives they can't get on PS, it offers them exclusive modes of play for many of the games they can. So a good 100 million potential customers there.
• Xbox gamers: same deal here. The loyalists would never let their ego suffer the blow of acknowledging they're attracted to a non-Xbox gaming device, but that group is extremely niche. 10 million tops. The other 40 or so million are potential Switch customers. Not all will be into Nintendo's games or even portable gaming in general, but the diversity of Switch as a console, handheld and portable tabletop console ensures it attractd as many as possible.
• PC Gamers: the master racists would never buy a gaming device characterized by 30fps and sub-par graphics, but the vast majority of PC gamers are just normal dudes who happen to play video games on the computer. Switch appeals to them more than PS or Xbox gamers in my experience. Since they have no reason to buy PS/Xbox, especially now that Sony/MS exclusives are coming to Steam, that really only leaves Switch/Steamdeck. And while you'd think Deck would be far more attractive to this group, the sales figures say otherwise. Contrary to popular belief, most PC gamers aren't min-maxers with 4080s and allergies to sub-120 framerates. In fact, from what I've observed, most don't even like tinkering with settings and stuff. They just wanna play games. Of the 120 million active Steam users, I'd estimate at least 80-90 million are potential Switch customers. Even if they just play here and there on the side, that matters not. A Switch sale is a Switch sale.
• Lapsed gamer: the 1980-90s kid who grew up on NES, SNES and N64, then grew up and out of gaming. Switch is pulling a LOT of these ppl in. Of the 40 million SNES owners there'd probably 20m who are potential Switch customers that fell out of gaming over the years.
• Casual gamer: I don't mean this as in the grandma at the retirement home. That sort of casual gamer is gone for good, forever absorbed into the mobile gaming market. I mean the non-habitual gamer. The kinds of ppl who don't follow news sites, and just pick up a controller from time to time. Gaming is just one of many activities they fall back on from time to time. LOTS of these ppl. Can't even put a number on how many potential customers there are in this group. 100m maybe? Who know.

There's not really any groups that Switch doesn't appeal to

So, reliable Sega leaker says March 2025 is a firm release date for Switch 2 now. And Sega will have a substantial launch presence. Previously they mentioned Persona 3 Reload and Metaphor: Refantazio would be releasing on Switch 2. And of course the retro remakes as well. But their release dates are unknown. Some are 2026-27 even. Some are next year. Can't remember which ones were which.

But ya. March 2025 it is then. Apparently it will be revealed this June (which has always been the month I contended it would be revealed in, though I was basing that on a fall 2024 release so, perhaps if Switch 2 wasn't delayed it would have been revealed sooner).

https://gamerant.com/nintendo-switch-2-release-month-sega-leak/

@skywake
Exactly! But that's why modding is so important- certainly to me. I know "piracy" gets all the talk and attention, and is the reason why even bringing the topic up in conversation gets ppl all kerfluffled, but this here is a perfect example. As you said, 3DS was the only system that ever made perfect sense. And Nintendo completely ignored it. But despite Nintendo's neglect, you can always count on the incredible community of emulation/modding to come through for us. Now, Virtual Boy on 3DS is a reality. Installable virtual console that shows up on the menu, can play the whole library. Which btw, the entire NA-JP library is available on public archival sites, I guess given how old the games are and the fact not even Nintendo themselves gives a crap when it comes to VB? Kinda like Micky Mouse and public domain lol. Even the litigious Nintendo with an itchy trigger finger is like... eh, go for it. It's all yours 😆 CLEARLY they care about Switch with the whole Yuzu lawsuit, and SNES/N64 and all the classics. But VB is... almost like it's disowned or something. Just weird to see.