Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

I figured I'd do another graph run because I think there's still some misunderstandings about how the maths of DLSS works in terms of how it interacts with framerates. Lets start with a few key assumptions:
1. The Switch 2 can natively render at 4X the rate of the Switch
2. The Switch 2 has a DLSS implementation that takes 20ms to output a 4K image
3. Render performance scales linearly based on the number of total pixels rendered
4. DLSS performance scales linearly based on the number of total pixels output

Are these foolproof assumptions? No. There are various bottlenecks in computing so things don't scale with power linearly like this. But as a guestimate they get us in the same ballpark and short of actually benchmarking hardware that doesn't exist it's the best we have. Plus as a model I think this is good enough to illustrate the point. Ok, so lets start with "game that renders at 900p/30fps on Switch" i.e. BotW/TotK/TTYD

So how to read this. The two axis are just the output resolution and framerate, basically what you get as the end result. The coloured lines are the different internal DLSS render resolutions. Then the black line is the native output of this "Switch 2".

Basically, when the black line is above the coloured line you are getting nothing from DLSS i.e. at 1080p we have DLSS with an internal render resolution of 1080p giving us ~60fps while native 1080p is closer to ~80fps. Which, you know, makes sense because using DLSS to upscale 1080p to 1080p is obviously dumb. When its the other way around? Well, when the black line is bellow the coloured line DLSS is worth it i.e. at 4K on this graph we get 20fps native but with DLSS if we wanted 4K we could render internally at 720p/1080p and get above 30fps

Now with this specific example? 4K doesn't really seem worth it. And I would argue if there's a ~20ms cost to DLSS at 4K it's just generally not worth it ever. Because what you could far more comfortably do here is go for a 720p internal render with a 1440p DLSS output and sit above 60fps. Which I expect is what they'd do here

But moving on, more scenarios, what about the "Super Mario Wonder" scenario? A game that already on Switch maxes out the resolution and framerate. Scaled up 4X to "Switch 2", how does that look? Surely here we can do 4K via DLSS right?

Well, technically yes..... but also no. You could do 4K via DLSS here but you could also just do 4K native here, and at a higher framerate than you'd get via the DLSS route. I fully expect these kinds of games to exist on the Switch 2 and I think if and when we see 4K it'll be in scenarios like this.

Ok, so last graph. Lets go all the way to the other extreme. Lets for arguments sake say there is a game on Switch 2 that on Switch 2 runs at 640p/30fps. Impossible port, Switch 2 edition. How would that look on this graph? Well.... lets first change the scale so we only go upto 60fps

I think here is where we start to see the value of DLSS. Of course in this scenario we can't hit 640p/30fps so in order to get above 30fps we have to have an internal render resolution bellow 640p. But, if we have our internal render resolution at 480p? We can upscale to 1080p and be comfortably above 30fps

.... and that's how it works. It's not magic, it's not free frames. It's a fixed cost that you add ontop of the time it takes to render the frame. If the time it's taking to render the frame is high? DLSS can give you extra pixels for relatively cheap. If the time it's taking to render a frame is low? DLSS is of little value because, well, you're already getting frames for cheap

@skywake Would it be fair to say Nintendo could create a game on Switch 1, then use the extra stuff in Switch 2 to upscale it. That's gotta be the most economically viable way of looking after 140M users whilst selling a new console. Certainly less cost restrictive than creting somthing on Switch 2 then making it fit Switch.

@GrailUK
I think there are three main paths in terms of performance targets for Switch/Switch 2 here and they broadly align with the above three graphs I posted coincidentally:

1. Blow past the Switch spec. Multiplatform releases that generally built for a PS5, scaled down to Switch 2. Presumably fairly intense games that are going to struggle to hit 30fps at 1080p native but you could use DLSS to either lock 30fps/1080p or push to something like 60fps/720p

2. Target the Switch spec. Go for something that will stretch the original Switch spec i.e. something that the Switch would at most just barely run at something like 720p/30fps. Then release on Switch at that target but also on Switch 2 at a portable 1080p/60fps native and docked DLSS assisted 1440p/60fps

3. The game doesn't need it. Switch is more than enough for your game anyways, it's a 2D platformer or some kind of retro style indie release. Just put it out on the Switch and let BC handle it. Maybe throw in a high resolution mode that allows 4K output on Switch 2

edit: I realised I didn't really answer your question. Hmm. Basically, the big titles that Nintendo wants to use to show off or that can take advantage of the improved specs and will sell enough on Switch 2 to justify any expense? Switch 2 only. Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, Splatoon, Pikmin. I'd also throw something like Hyrule Warriors in here purely because it could do with the additional hardware. I'd expect something along the lines of a 1080p/60fps lock, possibly pushing to 1440p in some cases, possibly DLSS assisted

The games that don't really need the additional power but can reasonably use it? A bit more in the middle. Here we're talking stuff like GC remasters and the 2D titles that do all the shiny things like Super Mario RPG or Link's Awakening HD. I'd also throw in here Metroid Prime purely because it's not a title that will move hardware. It's better straddling both generations. In terms of performance, same again, 1080p/60fps lock, possibly pushing to 1440p in some cases, possibly DLSS assisted

Then lastly there's the easy stuff. Generally anything Nintendo release on Switch right now and we'd just assume it goes 1080p/60fps. WarioWare, Mario Party, Switch Sports Resort if that ever happens. I'd expect those games to probably just be Switch games that have a "if on Switch 2 go 4K" flag somewhere

@skywake Yeah, I would have thought if Nintendo are to be as prolific as they are, they will still make smaller titles at home on Switch that could look great in 4K. (Like all the 'This is what <insert game here> looks like at 4K thanks to modders' articles.) Seems they have shown there is an audience / market for that process.

I think Nintendo will naturally make a lot of games which simply don't need Switch 2 plus some which run fine on Switch but would be improved in Switch 2. Between those categories, I think Nintendo will be pretty prolific for Switch 1 for awhile still.

Lets think of the games this year:

Another Code - No real reason for more power but maybe could have higher resolution version?

Mario vs DK - same as above

Peach - pieces of it definitely could have looked or run better on a Switch 2 version

Endless Ocean - Switch 2 improvements could have been OP for this game since it is all about graphics

Paper Mario - already looks beautiful, you would get 60 fps

Luigi - ??

Nintendo World Championship — clearly doesn't care which console

Will Switch’s successor use ray-tracing? I remember people saying TTYD looks like it uses ray-tracing which led to speculation about the successor. Is this likely?

@FishyS It would be a sad sad day if Nintendo went all in on AAA experiences (christ, that expression still makes me vomit! It's so corporate buzz wordy.)

Unrelated to an extent but Midori is Japanese for Green. I know this because one of my OCs is named Dori, which is short for Midori, and yeah, I don't know why I bothered saying this lol.

@CaleBoi25 I wonder if Midori goes by this name because she gives Atlus/Sega news and rumors, and Persona 6’s color theme is rumored to be Green, since each persona game has a color theme (P5 was Red, P4 was yellow, P3 was blue, etc)

(Oh yeah, atlus is the persona publisher, meant to include that)

@Ulysses
Ray Tracing is just another feature they can add. In terms of the discussion around performance it's not really that much different to having more RAM that allows higher resolution assets

Also my point wasn't to say DLSS isn't important. It is. I just think people are both underestimating the number of games that could hit 4K natively and overestimating the resolution that DLSS will be useful at. DLSS will be hugely important.... in getting very demanding games upto a full 1080p output

If Switch 2 wants to play AAA titles or 1st xbox/ps console games they will need to go DLSS/RT with the T239 custom chip and maybe a eGPU on the dock to help with more cooling. They can no longer just sit and wait and hope AAA/1st Party games come over. And no 140Mil wont go on sale as they work find with standard Switch games. People are over hyping the Switch loss for their own gains to sell their own multiple Switch v1, v2 OLED and hope there are suckers out there. And you can still play if true your Switch games in a Switch 2 not reverse so that still means they can have the same account on both consoles and play one or the other and download the games if they have a NSO and start where they left off. So NO just because Switch 2 comes out the Switch market won't do a Black Monday crash. This will always be a drop on older consoles when a New console comes out or a more powerful that can play aka BOTW/TOTK with higher fps with more details but the rest of the games can and will still work for the older Switch.

@SwitchForce
What a ramble.... lets unpack that....

AAA games on Switch 2
There are already developers who make high budget games that are making the effort to port their games to the Switch. The Switch 2 will be significant jump in spec. It doesn't really need to do anything more than that for these games to come. So your first concern here is, IMO, complete nonsense

DLSS
Regarding DLSS I suggest you have a look at my post on the previous page. DLSS isn't magic, it's a (very impressive) upscaling technique that takes time to do. But for it to work you need to be able to render the game at a resolution and framerate that you are upscaling from. You can't really magic out 4K/60fps if you can't render natively at like 720p/30fps. That's not how it works, or the capabilities we're likely dealing with. How it will work will be more like you can render at 720p/60fps and we bump that upto 1080p/60fps via DLSS

RT
There will be some RT, sure, but it's not going to be the defining feature. It will be nice when they use it but it'll be at the margins and I doubt most people will notice it much outside of DF

eGPU in the dock
Nope

Something, something Black Monday Crash
Honestly I have no idea what you're really trying to get at here. There will be new hardware and, over time, people will move onto that new hardware from the current platform. That's just how things go. People will sell their old consoles so they can buy the new hardware. Those people aren't trying to swindle people, the old hardware will still have value. But again, that's just how it always goes with a console transition

Dropping some "DLSS maths" up in here again. If the DF guestimate is right and a 4K upscale takes ~20ms then, on paper, DLSS will allow the following:
480p/30fps native can turn into 720p 30fps
480p/60fps -> 900p 45fps
720p/30fps -> 720p 60fps via 480p
720p/60fps -> 900p/90fps via 480p, 1080p/45fps or 1440p/30fps via 720p
1080p/30fps -> 1080p/45fps via 720p
1080p/60fps -> 1440p/60fps via 720p

If we (optimistically) halve the compute time for DLSS that becomes:
from 480p the story is largely the same
720p/30fps -> 900p 60fps via 480p
720p/60fps -> 960p/100fps via 480p, 1440p/45fps via 720p
1080p/30fps -> 1080p/60fps via 720p... very almost....
1080p/60fps -> 1440p/80fps via 720p

of all these scenarios we're most likely to see:
SD resolutions being pushed into HD resolutions
games that can run well at 720p being bumped up to 1080p or 1440p
games that can hit or push beyond 1080p/60fps not using DLSS

@skywake good info. We just don’t know what they will do. Also variables like clock speeds and the fabrication. Nintendo enthusiasts are really excited. There is a lot of talk about this machine outperforming series s. Everyone should have a little caution because the disappointment would be off the charts.

What are the chances that the Switch successor could potentially have a dual-screen set-up? I remember that patent a while back that was basically holding the idea of a switch-like console with a secondary screen that folds into the main console unit- but I know patents largely don't tend to mean that they'll actually commit to it. It's just coming up with ideas for future reference.

This being said however- I was thinking with a friend on how they could actually pull something like this off. How could they make a dual-screen console that can be docked into a TV or played in tabletop. Those would be the two largest hurdles which the console would need to over-come.

My thinking is that if they were to make a new handheld console with dual screens utilizing the Switch concept, they could try the concept that the Wii U had again- where there's a gamepad-like device (albeit far less bulky than the Wii U Gamepad) which acts as a secondary screen for the console. The screen could fold into the console for ease of storage, and possibly even detach from the system itself for docked-play.

The streaming that the gamepad had was one of the larger flaws of the Wii U, with the inability to take the screen with you on the go like others wanted. You couldn't even really leave the room with the gamepad, making it to where you pretty much were bound by being right next to the console. With the concept being used in this hypothetical successor though- I would say that it could possibly be more efficient? I feel like since the main console would actually be portable this time around, the secondary screen would be able to be taken anywhere without issue. Need to go into another room because someone's wanting to watch TV? You'll be able to do so by connecting the secondary screen to the main console. It would mostly only be needed as a "gamepad" separate from the main console if you're basically looking to play on a TV or monitor.

The only real negatives I could see in this concept are the following:

Having to keep both the top screen and bottom screen charged somehow.

Developers of games not being thrilled about utilizing the bottom screen- with it falling into how third parties ended up handling Wii U support.

Children disconnecting the bottom screen from the top and getting it lost (something which probably happens with Joycons, but is much easier to replace than a secondary screen).

Benefits:

The return of things like having your inventory screens and map screens open at all times.

Ease of porting/remaking 3DS and DS titles.

Do you guys think this is likely? That there's a possibility that they could ever go back to dual screens? I kind of hope they do- given that the concept was probably the pinnacle for gaming. Having a massive ease of access, or touch-screen specific experiences was one of my favorite things about the 3DS. Games like Tomodachi Life and Nintendogs.. or things like Fossil Fighters. Games that made heavy use of the DS touch-screen, and made unique experiences due to it.

@VoidofLight Even though the brief 'Switch Attach' rumour was probably just nonsense, I still like the idea of an optional accessory second screen attachment that just clips onto the normal Switch 2.

@RygelXVIII I feel like the only thing that would be stopping them is the price of the screen. In order to get a screen on a gamepad-like device, they would have to effectively spend a bit more than the expenses of the joycon. I feel like they might attempt it- but it feels like they probably wouldn't given how they already lose a good bit with manufacturing the normal switch consoles. Hope I'm wrong though and that they do end up making some sort of secondary screen you either can slot in to play games with, or that the screen ends up being the main gimmick of the console this time around.

@RygelXVIII Hadn't thought of that use-case for the magnetic joycons - that would be a really cool idea. I have never owned a DS (Switch is my 1st ever handhold) and would love to catch up on those games.

@RygelXVIII That could be the case. I hope they end up doing something with this. Either via a main gimmick for the console, or just a side attachment. Something that can bring back the DS days with this HD hybrid console.

I feel like Nintendo will want to be conservative with their base design, but I do like the idea of optional hardware accessories. Imagine if they hard an attachable screen accessory and then just flooded NSO with DS games.