Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

To be fair I'm still doing the same sorts of speculation now. My stance now though is that the Switch concept is basically end game. So I don't really expect any dramatic changes from what we already have. Maybe we get something smaller than the Lite and the internal spec will improve. But fundamentally I expect more "Switch". Which isn't that exciting a prediction....

What's up in the air a bit is how they manage the transition to the inevitable higher spec hardware. And on that bit I've been parroting one idea for years. I think they need to keep the architecture similar enough that software purchases can stick around between "generations". Generation transitions are risky, the more they can minimise that risk the better. I expect more games where they release it once and just endlessly release DLC and patches for it rather than doing sequels for new hardware

Calling it now, no Smash for the new hardware. No Mario Kart 9. Instead we'll see these games as they were on Switch on the new eShop with a patch that unlocks more performance. Games as a service is here to stay, like it or not

How they market the new hardware I'm not sure. But I expect the hardware itself will interact with the Switch library not unlike how the GBC interacted with the GB library. And the release of new software will be "cross-gen" in a similar sort of way to what we got back then

@skywake I’m not buying no new Mario Kart or Smash. Nintendo happily released 2 Splatoon games on the same system, a live service franchise. They could have easily just kept adding to Splatoon 2 but they saw how well it sells and made that incredibly easy money. And I bet the next Switch gets multiple new games in the franchise too. They also did 2 Mario Party games without either having DLC. One new Mario Kart per generation is what I expect which will be a live service game but it’ll start with less tracks, characters and vehicles than previous and will slowly drip feed over the years.

@FragRed
I could well be wrong but if I was pressed to make a prediction about the next console generation it would be that. It would make sense to extend some of those evergreen titles out potentially even across generations. I mean you can look at it in terms of how many unit sales they could make for one title. Alternatively you could look at how many existing owners of this game there are that are paying for NSO. How many of them you could drag across to new hardware by saying the game will run better over here

With Smash Bros I think its even more cut and dry. I don't think there would be that much interest in pushing for a new Smash without Sakurai and I don't really see Sakurai diving back into Smash anytime soon. So we could definitely have a "console cycle" without a new Smash. But if there's BC I don't think that's a major issue, especially if they drop a performance enhancement patch. I mean the Smash community stubbornly stuck with Melee for years, they can remain enthusiastic without a new title dropping. If Smash on the new hardware has a 120Hz mode or something they'll race to get the new hardware just for that

But yes, Splatoon 3 does go against this idea. I still don't quite understand what the point of Splatoon 3 was. Though you are right, it did somehow still manage to almost match the sales of Splatoon 2. Even so, I don't think it was the greatest move to make. With that said, Splatoon does have a single player mode in a way that Smash and Mario Kart don't so. There's certainly some room for sequels in that sense

With Mario Party? I mean, I don't think anyone buys a Switch for Mario Party. I don't think anyone would maintain a NSO sub for online Mario Party. Also the target audience for Mario Party, I'm not sure they're the sort of user who would pick up DLC. It's a different sort of title entirely

@skywake I'm guessing the next console is released in 2024, my predictions for games on the next console are:-
2024 - 3D Mario + Metroid Prime 4
2025 - Animal Crossing
2026 - Super Smash Bros 6 (7-8 years since Ultimate is a reasonable gap?)
2027 - Splatoon 4
2028 - 3D Zelda

Other games I think fir in there somewhere...
Mario Kart 9 - Obvious one, but not sure when this comes given we're getting DLC until the end of 2023?
3D Donkey Kong - I believe a movie has been confirmed, I think Nintendo will want to try and elevate Donkey Kong to being as close to Mario and Zelda as they can get
Star Fox - Good title for a remaster or new game
F-Zero - depending on if there is any truth to the rumours about something coming this year

@MarioBrickLayer I think Animal Crossing is going to be further out than 2025. Maybe a new Splatoon will take that void. New powerful hardware should allow them the chance to do more with the game. Really, they should have made the third game for the new hardware. But I agree with a new 3D Mario and Metroid Prime 4 being released first year.

@skywake Splatoon 2 should have continued with new single player DLC and new maps and weapons added then released a new game for the new Switch hardware. The more powerful hardware should allow them to do a lot more with the game. Since that’s not the path they seemingly took I wonder if Nintendo considers it kinda like COD, only not as frequent. By that I mean multiple games per system.

TBH I'm not really that confident about guessing software releases. There's just far to many variables when compared to hardware and/or broader development strategies. But if I was to guess one thing beyond my previous post guessing no new Kart and Smash? I think I'd say that we should get ready for a flood of 2D games and other quicker turn around titles

I think as part of this transition and to reduce risk we'll continue to see Switch titles. The new hardware only games will initially mostly be third party stuff. Maybe 3D Mario or something like a Star Fox will happen. Maybe Kid Icarus. But still, lots of support for current Switch. And 2D titles are how you do that

I'm thinking along the lines of Yoshi's Woolly World, maybe New SMB. I hold out hope for Wario Land but maybe not. Certainly 2D Zelda. So yeah, that's my guess for 2023-2025

@skywake Oh God the thought of a flood of 2D games etc gives me Wii U dread vibes.

@FragRed You may be right. I only put it in 2025 because it has huge appeal to casual gamers and it will have been 5 years since the last game.

@skywake Yeah, Nintendo are really good at keeping things under wraps, so who knows what they will release!

I think it's interesting that they are transitioning from being a gaming company to an entertainment company, and what that might mean. If I'm Nintendo, I'm looking at my existing IP and thinking which has scope to grow and be utilised across gaming, movies and the theme parks. I think the answer is Donkey Kong, Metroid and Star Fox.

Donkey Kong is getting an area of the theme park, what about a Star Fox ride? Or a Metroid themed laser tag arena?

Donkey Kong also has a stand alone movie confirmed (99% sure) so what about a live action Metroid movie? Or a Star Fox TV series?

With all that in mind, I'd be developing:-
1. 2D and 3D Donkey Kong Games
2. Metroid 6 is rumoured. If they are happy with Metroid Prime 4 and the new staff they have recruited, keep the team together and put them to work on Metroid Prime 5 as soon as 4 is finished, aim for 2030 or something.
3. Give one (or both) of the Gamecube Star Fox games a Metroid Prime style remaster, maybe throw in some new content like they did with Bowsers Fury, whilst developing a new entry in the series.

@MarioBrickLayer I hate to say it but I don’t see Nintendo bringing Star Fox back any time soon. And I’m certain if they did, it won’t be through a remaster of Star Fix Adventures. That game never did too well from either a critical or commercial level.

@FragRed Maybe, but in a world where Nintendo are involved in theme parks, movies and potentially TV then Star Fox has a lot of potential. Plus they need titles to fill out the release calendar.

@MarioBrickLayer Yeah… maybe. But I think Nintendo will likely milk their other bigger franchises dry first because they know that there’s a high chance of big returns. Star Fox will be low on that list.

@FragRed That's maybe true. I think the Mario movie is going to do really well, so a sequel will probably enter development sometime this year. I'm sure a Donkey Kong movie was announced or leaked too?
I think everyone is assuming they will do something with Zelda, what comes after that?

@MarioBrickLayer I feel Nintendo are pushing Metroid pretty hard right now with hopes they can turn into a big multi media franchise.

I think we'll be seeing Nintendo delve deeper into the back catalog (the longer the Switch lasts, the deeper Nintendo has to go). Like how the February 2023 Direct had Gamecube appear 4 times which is the most the system has been brought up in any Nintendo Direct.

@FragRed Yeah, I agree with that. A live action movie would be great. Does it fit in theme park or not with it being more family focus? I was just throwing ideas out there in my previous post, but a Metroid laser tag/laser quest style arena in the theme park could be fun.

I think Star Fox is the next best candidate after Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and Metroid.

@Grumblevolcano I think to a certain degree that carries over from system to system. Advance Wars for example is probably not a franchise which starts getting new games every few years.

Partly because of their partners I think that Metroid/Star Fox/F-Zero and even Zelda have a lower likelihood of being developed into films - I think Mario Movie sequels/spinoffs are more likely. The films from illumination have a very particular irreverent tone that can be overlaid onto Mario but wouldn't fit Star Fox as naturally - even if Star Fox were big enough an IP to justify making a film from.

But I've been wrong before. I was very cynical about The Lego Movie and it turned out to be fantastic. I can imagine excellent films being made for just about any franchise after The Lego Movie. It just needs a really strong idea and execution and that could come from any studio if they wanted to.

Donkey Kong seems to have a higher profile in the US perhaps, but from my perspective, I'd be surprised if Nintendo made films focusing on DK or Samus anytime soon.

Both of them are associated with games of challenging difficulty, so kids and families have limited game-based affinity with those characters, particularly Samus who only appears in Smash outside of the Metroid games. Both series have attractive art styles and design, but I just don't see the mainstream attachment necessary to drive a movie project.

Now, I could see DK getting a spin-off from the upcoming Mario movie, sure, but it's hard to imagine it equalling the interest levels of Super Mario Bros.

@StuTwo I know what you mean, those other titles don't really fit with Illumination's current output. But they could use someone else?

@gcunit I think as DK is in the Mario Movie along with other DK characters, I think it's fairly certain we'll get a DK movie, I thought it had already been confirmed?

If you consider some of the other games which have been adapted into movies and TV shows, I don't see anything holding Nintendo back from using those other titles. Think of; Uncharted, The Witcher, Rampage, Hitman etc...

TV - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_television_series_based...

Movies - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_films_based_on_video_games