Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

I just pretty much count a console as a new generation when the console has a completely different feature-set, formfactor, and/or exclusive games that were made to work specifically with that console and none of the others before it.

The only time I don't count it is stuff like the 2DS or DSI, where most of the times those are just revisions of the same hardware. The Switch 2 is most likely going to be the 3DS to the Switch, where it'll have exclusive games and features that effectively render it useless to own the original switch at some point or another.

I don't really get where you're getting the Gen X sequels thing from or Gen 2 getting remakes thing from. Gen 5 remakes are a possibility in Gen 9 on Switch hardware, mostly because of what they're building up in Indigo Disk along with the circumstances that Gamefreak is most likely heading for. While there is a possibility we won't get anything next year on Pokemon Day, I feel like Gen 9 itself is too perfect for them not to do something with Gen 5. It embodies one of the few themes of Unova, that being the weird past/future dynamic showcased physically through the region. Different locations are lined up with different time periods, with Pokemon White having areas that are more natural like the White Forest and Opelucid City, and Pokemon Black having more urban and city-like areas like Black City and Opelucid City.

My thinking is that we won't be getting Gen 10 until 2026, given that it's just around the corner. That's the 30th anniversary of the franchise, so Gamefreak would most likely want the 10th generation of Pokemon to drop that year instead of settling for 2025.

As for the PWT, that's the "Pokemon World Tournament." The Pokemon World Tournament was the battle facility in Black 2 and White 2, where you could go up against characters in a tournament-like fashion. Characters from the other games would show up to fight you on occasion, much like the battle tree in Sun and Moon. You had characters like Cynthia, Red, and previous gym leaders from past games that you could fight against. It was one of the best battle facilities in the series, and a new character being mentioned as a potential contestant makes it feel like they're gearing up for sequels instead of just simple remakes.

@VoidofLight Could be both, TPC still seems to be pushing for annual releases so if Gen 10 is saved for 2026 I think we'll see a situation where 2024 are Gen 5 remakes (ILCA doing them in a similar style to BDSP) for the current Switch and 2025 is Game Freak doing a new Unova mainline game (like how Legends Arceus delved into Sinnoh's distant past with the Hisui region) for the Switch's successor.

@Grumblevolcano Ehhh I doubt Gamefreak would release a new game immediately on the Switch successor. They tend to adopt systems about 2 years after they release, in order to insure that they don't fail out the gate. They made Black 2 and White 2 in 2012 for the DS, when the 3DS was already out. Pokemon Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon were on the 3DS despite the Switch already being a thing as well.

I do think there's a good chance that Gamefreak is going to do a similar thing to Gen 4 on switch, yeah. Release remakes of some sort and then another game entirely. There have been a few rumors going around about what exactly gamefreak will be doing with Gen 5, but they're effectively moreso cryptic hints.. given who the leaker is.

I don't generally trust leaks, but this leaker pretty much got the entire Paldea pokedex, along with Legends Arceus' gameplay and story details right before the games ever even released.

@GrailUK
Hrm, yea, I mean Nintendo still has a bit of that magic when it comes to branding and perceived quality. But I think we continue to brush off competition like the Steamdeck at our own peril.

Even if Nintendo doesn't consider the Steamdeck to be direct competition to the Switch successor, that doesn't mean the Deck won't continue to gain market share in the mobile space, because from everything I'm reading, it seems to be doing quite well, especially if Valve would slim it down and make a truly handheld version of it at a sacrifice of some power.

What I'm saying is, the handheld space is becoming more populated with hardware that actually seems to be sticking... we're not talking about consoles like the Ouya anymore. If the Switch 2 doesn't do something to stand out, even with the Nintendo name, it runs a real risk of not succeeding, maybe not through direct competition and "losing," but simply through a handheld space that has lots of great options and ultimately suppresses sales for a Switch 2 whose only perk is that it "officially" runs Nintendo games (I'm looking at you, Steamdeck people... you know what I mean lol).

@rallydefault switch 2s gimmick will be that its games brick any non Nintendo console there played on

@rallydefault Steam Deck has sold 4 million units I believe. I would never be so arrogant as to brush something off, but I don't see it as a reason to hit the alarm just yet.

@GrailUK
Well, that's what I'm saying: I don't think Nintendo will ever hit the "alarm," just like they never did when they famously stated they didn't view Sony's and Microsoft's consoles as direct competition during the Wii (worked out for them) and Wii U era (definitely didn't work out for them).

More realistically, the handheld gaming space will continue to become ripe with a few excellent options rather than just one like the original Switch has enjoyed, and Switch 2's long-term success will diminish due to that fact IF it doesn't do something other than add more power and run 1st-party Nintendo games.

@rallydefault Exciting times! I do hope we get new hardware this year. I would love to see what next gen Nintendo plays like. But if we get Metroid Prime 4 and an Ocarina of Time remake, then I don't mind waiting a bit longer hahaha!

I dunno. With less than 6 hours until 2024, Nintendo are cutting it really fine to make any announcement this year 😝

Too late, it's 2024 in Japan.

@FishyS Great, someone can tell me what Nintendo are up to in the future. Yes I know it’s a really bad overused joke but it’s the end of the year and I’m tired 😂

@FragRed @FishyS hmm, I'm sure I thought I typed 'comming'. Aaaanywaaay...

...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!

@GrailUK
Oh man, if we get Prime 4 and/or an Ocarina remake, yea, I'm fine with an early 2025 Switch 2 lol

Honestly, there are still tons of games on this system that I need to play, and I can't crank them out like I used to. I still need to do Fire Emblem Engage, Astral Chain, Pikmin 4, and when it comes to some JRPGs... woof. I haven't had a chance to touch any of the Mana remake stuff they were doing a couple years back or Live A Live.

It's not like this hasn't happened before when Nintendo was slow to launch. The SNES was infamously slow to launch after the NES and they went from having 75% of the market (95% in the US) to 60% of the market. Overall the market grew globally by ~2mill that generation but the SNES sold ~13mill less units than the NES

Then there was, again, the second half of the HD generation. 2008/2009 HDTV adoption went through the roof but Nintendo was riding high on motion controls. Microsoft and to a lesser extent Sony respond to motion controls but more importantly are well placed for HD gaming with HD "capable" consoles that are getting cheaper by the day. Nintendo sits on their hands. 2007/08 Nintendo has over half of the home console market, by 2010 it's closer to 1/3rd. In 2012, when the Wii U launches, they're under 1/4. A lot of that decline has nothing to do with Wii U

Even the DS had a similar deal. I mean sure, of course, the DS ended up being the second best selling platform of all time. But the GBA was on the market without a successor for less than half of the time the DS was and didn't come anywhere near capturing the types of users the DS managed to capture. Yet the GBA still moved 81mill units. The PSP moved 82mill. So the question is, how many more units would the DS have sold if the PSP didn't exist? And how many less would it have sold if it had given the PSP a head start?

Now, do I think Switch 2 is doomed if it waits until 2027 or something stupid? Well no. Do I think that launching the Switch 2 right now would kill all potential competition and allow them to maintain their effective monopoly in the portable space? Also no. I expect whatever Nintendo does either someone or some concept is going to gain some traction in the portable market. You can just feel the renewed market interest in making portable gaming devices. It's happening regardless, there will almost surely be something like the PSP/XBox whether that's Steam Deck or something else

But the choice Nintendo has to make is when. They have no control over what the competition does, they do have control about how they react. And personally I think now or much, much later is the difference between 90%+ market share and 100mill+ unit sales and ~70% market share with ~80mill unit sales. The earlier they can go the better off they'll be

@skywake
Sure, but 2024's gaming landscape and realities are a heck of a lot different from those other decades. I think the games industry and gaming habits have fundamentally changed.

Smart phones, for one, have completely upended what "gaming" even means to the masses, and in my opinion has had its own impact on what the majority of people want from a gaming console (if they want one at all). Frankly, I wouldn't shy from a guess that millions upon millions of "gamers" have left the console market altogether and are perfectly happy with what they can get on their smart phones.

It's for that reason that I think the Switch 2 needs to lean more heavily into its portable nature rather than its hybrid nature. I think the TV capability needs to remain, but I think its portable form needs to be slimmed down and moved closer back towards the DS line (or dare I say it? the Gameboy line) to get those people who are exclusively mobile gamers these days.

It's just not the time for Nintendo to get lazy, I think we can all agree, and that's the core of what I'm saying. A Switch 2 that is a power upgrade and another reimagining of the kickstand (lol...hopefully a lol) would really be a bummer for me, but I also think it would be an unnecessary kneecapping at the start of the gen. The Switch was incredible and brought a lot of non-gamers back to the fold, but to essentially just do the same thing... what's the marketing line gonna be for people who just barely got back into gaming in the first place?

@rallydefault
The shape of the pressures are different sure but fundamentally it's the same problem. Technology and consumer expectations are shifting and while Nintendo is currently in a super dominant position in their own niche they won't maintain that without making a play. Whether that play is something exotic or just simply a improvement to the spec. They need to make a play if they want to minimise the drop they'll inevitably have from this peak they're having or, ideally, land another hit and fall into a new wave of massive success

Whether that changing landscape is a change in culture, a competitor releasing a compelling product, the transition to 3D, the introduction of optical media, HDTVs, smartphones, VR, portable PCs, whatever. Doesn't really matter what it is. The response is the same. Get out a new product when your current one starts tailing off before your competitors can come in and steal some of your momentum

@skywake
I don't disagree, I just think only a power boost and less of a bezel isn't gonna cut it.

I found the video, the reason why it felt that the 1st party sizzle reel at the end of the September Direct was a farewell for Switch:

20:54 in the video above. Nintendo did a similar same thing in the September 2016 Direct and that was the final multi-game Direct that was dedicated to 3DS/Wii U. After that Direct there were 3 game specific 3DS Directs:

• Monster Hunter XX (Japan exclusive Direct)
• Animal Crossing New Leaf Welcome amiibo
• Miitopia (Japan exclusive Direct)

Everything else was either Switch specific or 3DS shared the spotlight with Switch. Nintendo's made it clear that Switch isn't being abandoned just yet, so I figure for a few years Directs would be like the April 2017/September 2017/March 2018/September 2018 Directs where Switch takes the role of 3DS and Switch 2 takes the role of Switch.

If we’re getting Gen V Remakes, and Gen X sequels, it’d be on the Nintendo Switch 2.