Topic: Nintendo Switch 2 Direct

@skywake
Do you think this is gonna be an hour long?

@rallydefault
I'm not making a guess at how long it'll be. What I'm saying is that typically Nintendo doesn't really expend much energy talking about hardware. And I used the Switch January presentation as an example given it's the closest analogue we have to what's coming up. I could've used other examples but Switch is the only hardware they've really had a launch presentation like this for post the slow death of E3

To be fair, it's not a new thing at all. This is just how they've always handled those kinds of presentations. They're not Sony or Microsoft who will get into the weeds on hardware. It's about the games. E3 2006 for example, last major presentation before the Wii launched. For a lot of people this was THE Wii sales pitch presentation, including myself. Just like this upcoming Direct will be. Here's what that timeline looked like:
~4min: Miyamoto conducting for the opening skit & Reggie intro
~5min: Software montage
~6min: Reggie monologue
~3min: More different software montage
~10min: Twilight Princess demo
~5min: More software
~10min: Red Steel
~10mins: DS
~5mins: Iwata talking about hardware features & philosophy of the Wii design
~10mins: Wii Sports

Notice again how little time is actually spent talking about the hardware itself?

..... I don't expect the April presentation to be an hour long like either of these examples. It might be but I don't expect it. Modern Direct presentations are far more time efficient than full presentations. It's probably going to be around 45mins or so would be my guess. But I certainly don't expect them to expend much time talking about Hardware, OS features or NSO. Basically if your guess is 30-40mins with 20mins dedicated to hardware/OS/NSO leaving only 10mins to talk about first party software..... mine flips that around. Maybe 45-55mins with at most 15mins on hardware/OS/NSO

I'm setting my expectation levels at:

• Hardware stuff (e.g. backwards compatibility, NSO, mouse mode, release month/date)
• Mario Kart reveal
• Bunch of 3rd party announcements
• Close with Prime 4 trailer 2

Don't get me wrong, 3D Mario is likely but I could see a situation where the Switch 2 Direct only covers games playable at the Switch 2 Experience events which I'm not sure 3D Mario will be considering Odyssey wasn't playable at the Switch 1 preview events.

@Grumblevolcano If 3D Mario and/or other first party games are releasing sometime this year then I don't see any good reason why they wouldn't just announce them in this Direct. They're the console's biggest selling point.

Scott the Woz compares the launch titles of each Nintendo console, and I was surprised to see how weak the launch lineups usually have been. Like, the flagship Mario Nintendo games we think of, typically didn't launch until well after the console released. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJS3WkgN2KI

@WoomyNNYes I mean, that's why we normally talk about release window rather than release day. Nintendo has never liked to put out lots of games at once, but they are very happy to have multiple huge games in a 6 month period. That's also why I think there will be multiple big directs this year.

@Grumblevolcano I think the only way 3D Mario doesn't show up in this Direct is if it's not coming this year. Otherwise they want to position it as one of the big reasons to get a Switch 2 this year, so they'll want to come out of the gate confirming its existence.

And I really do not see 3D Mario not happening this year (in fact I think it's highly likely to be the big November game for this year). I suspect 3D Mario is the biggest reason why they dragged their feet announcing the Switch 2 in the first place. They specifically wanted 3D Mario Year 1. I think if 3D Mario wasn't going to be ready by November we wouldn't even have the Switch 2 announced yet.

@Grumblevolcano I think you're quite spot on here. For some reason, I have an niggling feeling that the S2 launch won't be awash with a wealth of 1st party offerings... and instead Nintendo will heavily lean into 3rd party ports (of which I'd expect a volume of quality - Elden Ring, RDR2, Tekken 8 etc)

Where Metroid Prime4 is concerned, I'd really love Nintendo to make this a S2 exclusive - as opposed to being beholden to S1 backwards-compatibility, and therefore a huge concession in technical potential. I appreciate that the S1 installed base is huge, and many of that demographic won't leap into S2 on Day1.... but Nintendo really should lean into the new hardware, rather than cross-gen releases (IMO)

@CJD87 If history tells us anything, Nintendo will follow through on that Switch 1 promise just like they did with Twilight Princess and Breath of the Wild on GameCube and Wii U respectively.

You make a good point though as I'd imagine the power jump from Switch 1 to Switch 2 will be larger than certainly the GameCube to Wii and MP4 would be a perfect graphical showcase title.
But I do think it'll be a cross-gen release but whether the Switch 1 or Switch 2 will suffer from that I'm not sure.

I highly doubt this. There's been signals that there's 1st party games being intentionally held back for this console. We've had very little 1st party content in about 18 months (since the end of 2023), there's several major IPs that have had several lengthy droughts that feel due for new entries (3D Mario and Mario Kart have not had full-fledged main series entries since the first year of the Switch and relied more on ports and DLC to tide things over in the latter years of the Switch, there's multiple other IPs that are coming up on needing new entries like Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, and Kirby, Pokemon is about ready for a new generation soon and next year is their 30th anniversary, so the 10th gen games on Switch 2 feels appropriate then). There's a possibility that it's going to be less than we're expecting but I highly doubt there's going to be an utter drought of 1st party content. If there is, we should all seriously be questioning what is going on with Nintendo's internal studios as they've been quiet lately, if we're not getting them now, then when? Odds are we should have some solid 1st party support for the first 2 or 3 years at least.

Agreed. This seems to be Nintendo's MO. If they announce a for that console, but it gets delayed all the way to the beginning of the next generation, they still follow through with putting it on the original console and just make it cross-gen if it's major enough.

And there's PR reasons why they would want to do that, imagine if they said "Sike! Prime 4 isn't coming to Switch, we're moving it to Switch 2!". There's probably people that would be upset by that. I've seen some people here even say that the initial announcement of Prime 4 in E3 2017 was one of the reasons they bought the Switch in the first place and they've probably been waiting patiently to finally see this game. If Nintendo came out and said them they'd feel betrayed. I think the only scenario where they might do something like that is if they're REALLY struggling financially, and they most certainly are not right now. So I think we can rule out this possibility. It's coming to Switch 1. The question is more if there's also going to be a Switch 2 version in addition.

@skywake
I know what you’re doing with the past stats lol I was just asking you if you thought it was gonna be an hour, because that can make my prediction sound more or less ridiculous.

Half an hour talking about hardware, eShop, maybe a new Street Pass, NSO, mouse function, etc. does sound ridiculous. But that’s assuming this thing is an hour.

15-20 minutes to talk about all those things, on the other hand, out of 35-40 minutes doesn’t sound as crazy, but fits the same ratio.

I think if people are going into this Direct expecting mostly a games Direct… you’re gonna be sorely disappointed. Nintendo’s launch day/first weeks are historically meh. There’s gonna be a blowout MK9 game, which is sweet, one or two secondary Nintendo games, and then a few big third parties like Elden Ring and Doom. The rest will be the usual indie stuff, but nothing crazy and certainly nothing that requires over half the Direct’s time.

The big game reveals will be in the blockbuster September Direct that they’re already putting together. In some ways, that’s the one that’s gonna make or break the momentum of this entire new system heading into the first holiday season after the first wave of systems inevitably sells out.

@rallydefault
I would just point out that trailers for games are usually around 3-4mins and in a presentation like this they have a setup and segue. Especially if it's something they want to sit on. I think you're right in terms of there not being half a dozen games in the first few weeks there. I would expect maybe 2 first party titles to launch, the BotW/1-2 Switch or Twilight Princess/Wii Sports like combo. Then probably a couple more over the next 3-4months.....

..... but do the maths on that. They realistically have to show all of those titles in this presentation. If this thing launches in late May with 2 games and the next major Direct is September? What's happening in July? August? I would expect a couple of games to fill that gap. And if we're at 4 games that chew 5mins of presentation time each? We're already at 20mins for games

Note I'm making no comment on the quality of titles in that 20mins. I just think that would be the bare minimum. I would also expect at least 10mins or so going through other titles coming from third parties etc. And very quickly you're at 30mins

Hardware on the other hand..... I could see them going on a tangent for 10mins about the philosophy of Switch 2 or outlining new JoyCon features or something. And obviously there will be time in here for dates and prices. But I really can't see them burning much time outside of that on hardware/OS. Especially when a lot of these things they can just throw on their website or just throw a YouTube vid out after the fact

I'm not sure why so many people are discounting a June direct. For Switch 1, they had a 3DS + Switch direct a month after Switch came out. If the May rumour is true for Switch 2 (big if), April 2 could be the special Switch 2 presentation with hardware and a couple big games and then June could be a 'normal' Switch + Switch 2 direct which fills in a lot of smaller titles for both consoles plus another big one coming out later. Even if it's not in June, it's easy to imagine there being 2 post-April directs this year rather than trying to have one extremely bloated April 2 direct to cover until September.

I think 🤔 that there will be a redesign of Nintendo Switch Sports for the new switch.

@FishyS The Switch + 3DS Direct was because Nintendo were keeping the 3DS alive in case the Switch was another failure. So Nintendo had to keep including 3DS games in Directs until they could be sure they can drop the handheld altogether and focus on just promoting Switch releases.

There's one exception to this though, and that happens to be the launch for both their most recent and what may end up being their most successful console. The Switch's launch year lineup was utterly packed and probably a large part of the reason the Switch took off in the first place. Beyond the concept of a hybrid console being generally appealing, you had multiple heavy hitters like BotW, Mario Odyssey, MK8D, and Splatoon 2 in its first year. You think people looked at that lineup and thought "meh"? There were probably people coming out of the woodwork to play those games, and the sales imply as much.

If Nintendo is smart, they'll try to replicate this strategy with Switch 2. The Switch 2 doesn't seem to be doing much different from Switch 1, so the software will need to do a bit more of the heavy lifting this gen. Having another killer launch year lineup should help in that regard. And again, it does seem like they've been intentionally holding games back to save them specifically for this launch. We know Mario Kart is coming. 3D Mario has been in a similar situation where we could've gotten a big Odyssey 2 later in the Switch's years but didn't and has a long gap since Odyssey. Prime 4 and Z-A seem to have been suspiciously timed in a way that you have to question if they're cross-gen. And in general we haven't seen much from Nintendo's first parties since 2023. Nintendo's actions, or lack thereof seems to be hinting towards them saving games for this year. IDK when else you think we're seeing some of these games if not this year.

I do think September is going to be big, they should have some updates for games they reveal in April and/or June and some 2026 games to reveal for the first time. But this feels too late for a big games blowout for a new console. Then you're going into the holiday season with not much going on, because they're certainly not revealing a big November game for the holidays in September, that's too short a marketing cycle. And they pretty much have to have a big November game this year, do you really think that having MK9 at launch and no other big holiday game is going to be enough to convince people to buy Switch 2s? We have to see multiple games by the end of June. Period. I could potentially see a scenario where games reveals are held for June (I don't think that's going to happen because I think they're going to want to show off both hardware AND software here, but holding off games until June is a much more reasonable take), but I don't see any universe where we see little in terms of games until September.

@FishyS
Oh, I fully expect a June Direct. I just expect the April Direct to be where they outline most of that launch window. Again, repeating what they did for Switch, the January Direct was ARMS, 1-2 Switch, BotW, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey. Then they had a Feburary Nindies ShowCase and the April Direct, about a month post launch. Those other presentations had stuff of course..... but the bulk of the big hitters were in that initial presentation.... and I think it's fairly safe to expect something similar this time around

I don't entirely agree with the "they were keeping 3DS warm" narrative but in a sense I think @FragRed is kinda right. I would expect pre-launch to be heavily Switch 2 focused almost to the point of ignoring Switch entirely. Then the traditional June Direct will swing back to Switch a bit. Mostly details on already announced and upcoming stuff on the Switch 2 side combined with new announcements on Switch

@BenAV @Bolt_Strike Considering summer event season's importance even with E3 gone, I think it makes sense to split reveals between an April Direct and a June Direct so that excitement for Switch 2 continues over the summer.

@Grumblevolcano There's some sense in that for sure. Having a few events throughout the year will help keep the Switch 2 in people's consciousness, which will translate into more sales. I would not be surprised to see Directs in both June and September this year. Again, if they want to save some 2025 game reveals for June, I could see that. The only thing I can't see is rallydefault's theory of there being few games shown off for Switch 2 until September. That's going to start a Wii U-esque "no gaemz" narrative.

@Grumblevolcano That would only make sense to me if the console was launching later in the year. If it's a mid-year launch (like I'm expecting) then I want to know about all the big first party games coming in 2025 now, before the system comes out.

The Switch 1 presentation essentially told us the whole year's first party lineup in January and that was a large part of why I was excited for the console.