Topic: Nintendo Switch 2

I just finished Z-A. Second Pokémon game of all time that I actually beat (other was Sword), and I’ve been around since the 80s lol.

Loved it. Even did some of the stuff after the credits, and I’m excited to spend more time in that world.

I love it because it’s fresh and innovative. The battle system is awesome - it’s perfect for someone like me who just got sooooo bored of the menu-style combat that lacked any flair seen in other jrpgs. Even the movement was fun and the somewhat janky platforming “puzzles” lol.

Really awesome game, and I would certainly deem it “innovative” for the Pokémon franchise.

@OmnitronVariant
I said in the first 6 months. Whether it can be played on Switch 1 is irrelevant as well because its still new experiences, which directly addresses your claim.

But even if we disregard games that dual released on NSW1 (which makes no sense- that's an argument console warriors make to denigrate rival platforms, not that I think that's your motivation because I know its not, just pointing out it's an irrational argument), that still leaves 4 brand new NSW2 exclusives in the first half year, more than PS5 and XS had combined in their first 6 months. Add another 4 on deck we know about and either way, the point stands.

Got my NSW Lite OLED all finished up. Look at DKC Tropical Freeze (1080p supersampled image output) in glorious OLED on a tiny 6" screen.

Heck even running it normally as stock handheld looks insane. Better than on NSW2 and in a pocket friendly format. This thing is my new baby! Love my NSW2 and many games I will prefer to play on it instead. But a good number of games I think will be even better on the NSW Lite OLED with docked image being rendered on screen.

Cost an arm and a leg for the whole package though. System. OLED screen mod (touch support version) and installation. Chipped to render docked image on screen and OC to sufficiently power it.

@JaxonH The thing is that many of these new games are in niche IPs, so there's not going to be much interest in them. Opinions and preferences may vary, but I think if you're looking at a macroeconomic view of the situation (i.e. the fanbase as a whole instead of individual opinions), those kinds of entries aren't really going to move the needle. S2Es probably won't help much either, because most people probably already own the original game and are just going to buy the upgrade pack, and at this point cross-gen games like Prime 4 and Z-A are more likely to be bought on Switch 1 than Switch 2. What's needed is new, original, Switch 2 main series entries from high-selling IPs. And considering sales trends, let's define "high sales" as "IPs with an entry on Switch 1 that sold 10 million or more". When you look at it this way, there's only one game that really fits this definition: Mario Kart World. There may be more that we can retrospectively say fit this category later but don't have a Switch 1 equivalent like DK Bananza, Splatoon Raiders, and Pokopia (in my mind I certainly count Bananza but officially it does not fit this criteria, we'll have to wait and see if the game cracks 10 million), but being new styles of games they're too risky to tell if they're satisfying to large swaths of Nintendo fans (and we don't even have a clue what Raiders' gameplay is like so that makes it even harder). Hyrule Warriors, Air Riders, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Mario Tennis, these games are not system sellers, they're only appealing to smaller corners of the fanbase. What most people are waiting on are games like the new 3D Mario, the new Animal Crossing (Animal Crossing Newer Horizons as Jim Norman calls it in the article I showed you), Gen 10 Pokemon, Smash 6, 3D Zelda, Wonder 2, a new Mario Party, Luigi's Mansion 4, Splatoon 4. Those are the kinds of announcements the Switch 2 needs right now (not all of them at once of course, but we need about 2 or 3 of them to generate enough interest in the console) and there's been a worrying lack of any of these since the April Direct.

Worse yet, it feels like each of these games are slowly getting ruled out of happening in the near future. 3D Zelda most of us knew not to expect anytime soon because TotK happened so recently, but then you look at the others and the trend starts to get even more worrying. Mario Party got a S2E in the April Direct. Splatoon got a spinoff. Wonder got a S2E as well (completely expected, but that is another IP ruled). Now Animal Crossing is getting a S2E soon. And aside from Mario those are not IPs we get yearly, so expecting the new entries to come out the year after is wildly optimistic and highly unlikely. So what's left? It's practically a forgone conclusion that we're getting Gen 10 Pokemon next year, so that's one. But beyond that? We've only got 3D Mario, Smash 6, and Luigi's Mansion 4 as possibilities for 2026/2027 (and that's not even a guarantee, what if we get Smash Ultimate S2E or LM3 S2E?), the rest of the IPs mentioned are looking more like 2028 or later. And that's all making the Switch 2's lineup feel too little too late.

And then when you add to that some of these games having questionable design philosophies that are off-putting it makes the lineup even less appealing. Open world Mario Karting with MKW is great in theory, but when the world is so empty and has so little to do with most of the racing being through lifeless intermissions, it falls flat in execution. Then Z-A feels woefully shallow only taking place in one city (and one that's teeny tiny by open world standards at that) making it feel like a waste of $60. And Prime 4 is completely botching its marketing to the point where it's sapped any kind of excitement (due to repetitively showing the same early segments and showing the bike mechanics with no context confusing people on if it's still a Metroidvania). So with all of that you should be able to see why it feels like we have nothing even though nominally we do have a lot of games. I guess we technically have the quantity, but quality wise we're lacking top-shelf IPs with well-designed, well-polished entries.

I cant even tell if this guy is serious anymore. System gets a Mario Kart, Zelda, Kirby, and Donkey Kong game in its first 6 months but says “too little too late.”

I’ve seen it all.

For what it's worth, We know the intial 6 million sales were 50/50 and we know the Switch 2 / Z-A bundle has been selling well. Z-A may sell more on Switch 1 simply because far more people own Switch 1, but we'll have to wait and see.

It's an interesting question what will hit 10 million - Switch 1 had 21 games in the 10+ million club, so average a little less than 3 a year. Those games didn't all hit 10 million in their first year though because a lot of them are evergreen.

For 2025 we have:

• Mario Kart World - Will definitely pass 10 million eventually.
• Bananza - pretty plausible it will pass 10 million over the next couple years but we don't have enough information yet.
• Pokemon Z-A - Looks very likely to pass 10 million though I assume your argument would be that it won't necessarily hit 10 million just on Switch 2. I'm not convinced they will continue to give us sales data split between the 2 versions so we may or may not know the final split.
• Galaxy 2 (combining individual and double pack) - might hit 10 million eventually given that 3D all-stars hit 9 million in a short time period. Should be a bit of an evergreen one. Obviously even less of a Switch 2 game than Pokemon Z-A though.

So, overall, we likely have an average or perhaps even above-average number of big hitters this year, although they are split amongst the two consoles.

2026:

• Pokemon gen X - definitely 10+ million assuming it is in fact 2026.
• Pokopia and Splatoon Raiders - I'm guessing neither of these will hit 10 million (possibly far far below) since they are spinoffs but they're new types of spinoffs of major IPs so I wouldn't 100% rule it out.

All the other games from 2025 and 2026 we know of I would say have almost no chance.

This convinces me we have some major surprises which haven't been announced yet... likely at least 1 garanteed 10 million seller besides Pokemon. We can look forward to February and/or June directs.

As a side note, the 5+ million seller club is barely different than the 10+ club on Switch. We have 3D all-stars and Mario Maker 2 which came close to the threshold at 9 million, Jamboree which likely will sell more this holiday so may eventually hit 10 million, 4 3rd party games (Minecraft, monster hunter, suika gane, stardew), and then only 2 other first party games permanently stuck in the 5-10 range (Kirby and Link's Awakening). So even if games don't hit 10 million, we may get more at that 5+ level.

Kirby is an interesting one because it's one of Nintendo's top selling franchises but no individual game has ever quite made it to one of the very biggest sellers (though Forgotten Land certainly got close).

People often say they will buy a Nintendo console for a specific zelda, Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon game but I'm not sure if people buy a console just for a specific Kirby game.

But... it also doesn't matter. Plenty of people buy a console because there are many good games, not because of just 1 specific game. As you are indicating, Switch 2 is fast approaching the place where there are just loads of good games so there will be plenty to choose from for those who just want good games as opposed to those waiting only for a specific game such as 3D mario.

Games like Hyrule Warriors Age of Imprisonment, Kirby Air Riders, and Metroid Prime 4 are all fairly niche on their own, but when they are released back-to-back-to-back within a 5 week time period, it makes for a strong holiday lineup (not to mention Pokemon Legends Z-A which is actually a big title that released just prior to those 3 games). Dismissing them because they aren't mega-sellers like 3D Mario or Zelda seems premature and unwarranted.

Hmm, I didn't really think this through by year, that's an interesting point.

So looking at the Switch's lineup by year, here is what we had in terms of 10+ million sellers (and as I will address below, I am only counting new, original games, not ports, remakes, and remasters)

2017: Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2
2018: Smash Ultimate, Super Mario Party
2019: Pokemon SwSh, Ring Fit Adventure, Luigi's Mansion 3
2020: ACNH
2021: none
2022: Pokemon SV, Nintendo Switch Sports, Pokemon Legends Arceus, Splatoon 3
2023: TotK, Mario Wonder
2024: none

2 seems to be the average, but there are some lighter and heavier years. Now if you throw in the ports, remakes, remasters, then 3 starts to look about right. So the average seems to be about 2 new 10+ million entries and 1 old 10+ million entry. Coming back to the 2025 list, we have 3 likely candidates (I am not counting Galaxy 1+2 because there is no Switch 2 version of it) and that does fit the average trend of 2 new and 1 old (I'm counting Z-A as "old" because it's cross-gen even though it's technically debuting this year). 2026 though, definitely needs at least one more 10+ million seller. I'd say maybe we even need an above average year because of some of the questionable design philosophy issues I mentioned above marring some of these games.

I mean that is a good point, but that's not the point I'm making. What I'm saying is that cross-gen games and ports don't sell as well as completely new entries. The new entries are likely the primary reason people are buying new consoles with cross-gen games and ports being secondary. That's why I'm only counting the exclusives. Not S2Es which most Switch 2 owners probably already played on Switch 1 and only bought the upgrade packs (speaking of this is an interesting question, how are they going to report the sales for S2Es when most likely more people are just buying the upgrade packs as opposed to buying the full game?). Not ports/remakes/remasters that most of them probably already played and there's nothing left to surprise them with. The brand new, full retail entries that we've never seen before on a past console. Those are the games that tend to sell the most and drive console purchases. It's not a matter of liking specific IPs (that does factor into the microeconomic analysis of whether or not an individual might buy a Switch 2 based on their preferences but not the macroeconomic analysis of the whole fanbase that I'm doing). It's a matter of there being too much recycling of older games and not enough new games.

I would not be shocked in the slightest if Pokopia cracks 10 million. New Pokemon generations are doing 20-30 million on Switch, so there's room for a 10 million-selling spinoff. And Animal Crossing and other similar cozy life sims are very popular, so I could see this one selling well. As for Raiders, we need to know more about the game to tell. Looking at it again maybe 10+ is a bit optimistic for these two. The new Pokemon generations do about 25-30 million and the remakes/Legends games do about 15 million so a 10 million spinoff isn't out of the realm of possibility but that is a stretch. As for Splatoon, it's a growing franchise but 2 and 3 only barely cleared 10 million, so 5 million may be more realistic for Raiders depending on the choice of genre. But it's not out of the realm of possibility so I'm definitely keeping an eye on these two.

Because it doesn't fit already established beliefs about the Switch 2

Good question. If I were to guess, they'll treat the upgrade packs the same as DLC packs which Nintendo sometimes mentions in their quarterly reports but doesn't generally provide complete sales numbers for. Unless they want to emphasize selling Switch 2 things. For Z-A, I bought the S1 version with a voucher and instantly bought the upgrade pack. If Nintendo combines S1+S2 sales for the game, I assume they simply won't report the upgrade pack. But if they seperate out sales, I have no idea how they will count what I did.

The 6 month Nintendo financial report is in 2 days so we may see how they mention the upgrade packs soon. The data should cover until Oct 1 which includes the Kirby and Jamboree S2 editions, although I have no guess whether either of the upgrade packs passed the 1 million sales reporting threshold Nintendo uses.

This seems like a bit of a cop-out given that the Wii U Gamepad was a 480p screen and suffered heavy compression artifacts. I don't see how using a Switch OLED as a second screen for a Switch 2 game would be an issue here. Infact I've already used it like this for Clubhouse games a couple of times where one person gets the TV and the others are using a Switch 2 or Switch OLED

Well for one thing because the forum armchair analysis of what they're doing with Switch 2 upgrades, patches, editions you dropped about why Animal Crossing shouldn't get an update here is clearly wrong. But also because my view was that they're just going down the list of best selling franchises and seeing if they have an answer for why fans of those franchises should get a Switch 2

Animal Crossing was clearly a huge gap. So it makes sense it should get an update like this

Does anyone know if the digital FFVII Remake preorder works like normal preorders (i.e. money is taken a week before launch) or is it that the money is taken straight away considering it contains the Switch version of the original?

I have no interest in Key Cards so I'm naturally getting it digital but preordering something digitally nearly 3 months before launch if the money is taken a week before launch is rather pointless.

@westman98 Ehhh no, there's probably not going to be many people that buy these games that weren't also buying a mega seller. It's going to be hard to find someone that's interested in all 3, it's more likely that someone will need to be interested in a mega seller and 1 or 2 of those games, but I don't even think there's many of those people that didn't already buy a Switch 2. You really need a mega seller for the holiday season (especially the FIRST holiday season) and the Switch 2... really doesn't. I suspect sales momentum is going to slow down (there's still going to be a sales bump for the holiday but I think it'll be less pronounced) until the mega sellers show up. Most likely the majority of people that would buy a Switch 2 are waiting for at least 2 or 3 mega sellers that they like.

I don’t see what’s so hard to understand: Pokémon ZA is the Switch 2 holiday title. It’s not exclusive, but neither was BotW. And it’s being sold in a hardware bundle.

When will @Bolt_Strike get sick of being wrong?

I am once again going to say that I wish people were actually going to be correct about Switch 2 sales, especially for Pokemon yet again choosing mediocrity, but I feel strongly it is not going to work out that way.

A mediocre Pokemon RPG is still always gonna outsell your favorite games, life sucks, sorry.

This. In premise.

I gotta be honest, though, I compleeeeetely disagree with you on the quality/fun level of Pokemon Z-A. Have you played it? It's actually a really, really fun game. I had a blast beating it, and I'm already going back to try and get everything. And I don't even like Pokemon.

But yea. Everyone around here is overthinking things. Pokemon Z-A is the Switch 2 holiday title and it's gonna sell millions of consoles and will likely be over 10 million sales itself after the holidays and into early 2026. The breakdown was initially 50/50 between S1 and S2 version sales, then it swung back more S1, and through the holidays I see it swinging moreso toward S2 version until ultimately it's like 60/40 S2.

It's gonna be tough to find a Switch 2 this holiday season. That statements seems to upset some people who are rooting for Nintendo to fail for whatever reason, but that's what I think it gonna happen.

As it turns out, even a mediocre Pokémon game is a much better game than most of the alternatives out there, and this remained true for ZA for me as well, despite initial misgivings I had from marketing before playing it for myself.

That’s why I give them my money. Because nobody else comes even close, so maybe it’s not that easy to make a fun solid creature collecting RPG after all.

@rallydefault
Th be fair, the community is always out of touch with what sells and what doesn't. I think a lot of people forget that they personally are not the average user. The average user is less tech savvy, less aware, less adventurous and far more fickle than pretty much everyone on these forums

If it was up to the community to decide what sells the Wii would have never been a success. And to the extent that it was it would have been on the back of Smash Bros, Prime and Twilight Princess not Wii Sports and Wii Fit. The Switch would have been a PS4 killer and the 3DS would have lived on. And for Pokemon? The Switch game would have been Stars and the games that did land on Switch would have all bombed (except maybe Legends Arceus)

I don't particularly like where Pokemon is ATM so I'm not getting it. And frankly I'm surprised @OmnitronVariant is singing it's praises given the repeated whine about the fidelity of Switch 2 titles. I certainly would not be getting this game on Switch. But I also recognise that I'm not the average user. Because the average user, based on historical sales data, almost surely has their hype levels for Pokemon and Prime 4 inverted vs mine

I mean, that is true enough. Palworld is different and questionable in its own ways (despite Nintendo making themselves look like bullies during this whole fiasco). DQ Monsters only occasionally exists and DQ spinoffs are certainly not peak 3D visuals either. Yokai Watch inexplicably died. And anything else is indies that are limited by being indies trying to do Pokemon in one way or another.

SMT is Pokemon-ish, but the one I played didn't grab me (though to be fair, this was a recurring trend with nearly every RPG I played on 3DS) and its M rated.