Nintendo Switch Hits 22.86 Million Worldwide Sales, Has Now Outsold The GameCube

Smash and the two Pokémon Let's Go games should provide a decent boost.

Not sure about the 20 million. Although it could happen. It's going to take some big news to propel the numbers. I'd like to know what people think the top out number will be. 50 million? 65 million? think it could reach 100 million?

They might have over estimated for this year, but Smash is going to sell a lot of consoles as will Pokemon. Pokemon is always a HUGE seller, and Smash is likely to be one of the top selling games this year. Plus who knows maybe they have something big to announce after Christmas.

Looks at Nintendo 64
Nintendo Switch: You're next.

Maybe if they start adding games from other platforms like SNES, N64 and GameCube to the Switch Online service.

What's left to announce out of Nintendo's arsenal of franchises that will propel the Switch once again, after the release of Smash Bros and Pokemon. Animal Crossing, and the next proper instalment of Pokemon, but after that was else would be a huge console seller?

Starfox, Metroid, F-Zero, Luigi's Mansion etc aren't going to do it. So what's left? Hopefully a new Mario Kart or another Zelda?

Quarterly hardware shipments / LTD sales comparison:

3DS Q1 2011: 3.61 million / 3.61 million (Feb/Mar launch)
3DS Q2 2011: 0.71 million / 4.32 million
3DS Q3 2011: 2.36 million / 6.68 million (price cut in August)
3DS Q4 2011: 8.35 million / 15.03 million
3DS Q1 2012: 2.10 million / 17.13 million
3DS Q2 2012: 1.86 million / 19.00 million
3DS Q3 2012: 3.19 million / 22.19 million (3DS XL launch in August)

Switch Q1 2017: 2.74 million / 2.74 million (Mar launch)
Switch Q2 2017: 1.96 million / 4.70 million
Switch Q3 2017: 2.93 million / 7.63 million
Switch Q4 2017: 7.24 million / 14.86 million
Switch Q1 2018: 2.93 million / 17.79 million
Switch Q2 2018: 1.88 million / 19.67 million
Switch Q3 2018: 3.19 million / 22.86 million

After a disappointing Q2 calendar 2018 where hardware sales fell ~5% YoY, Switch sales have recovered with quarterly sales up ~9% YoY.

This is the first time a Nintendo system has shipped over 3 million units during a non-holiday, non-hardware launch quarter since 2010, when the DS and Wii were still big. More impressively, it achieved this with its biggest new release of the quarter being Octopath Traveler...

I don't think it will hit the target. But that said, I don't expect it to struggle. And while Nintendo has been Nintendoomed for about a decade or more now, I still have full confidence that the Switch will continue to sell well.

Pokemon and Smash are obvious sellers, and I fully expect that BotW, Mario Kart, Mario Odyessy, Splatoon 2, and Super Mario Party will all continue to sell well too. Because those are evergreen titles that most new Switch owners always pick up several of.

Further, I feel like there are a LOT of niche titles on the Switch that will sell well in their own rights. Games like Disgaea 1 complete, Valkyria Chronicles 4, Steins;Gate Elite, The World Ends with You, Octopath Traveller and many others. The Switch is definately no Wii U. It has a healthy and regularly growing library of 3rd party titles.

Also next year has a lot of big things lined up, with indies like Wargroove and major titles like Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing and probably Metroid Prime 4.

20 million seems possible but I think they won’t quite make it. The lineup this holiday season has Smash and Pokemon and to a lesser extent Mario Party plus all their evergreen titles. Last year Mario Odyssey was the only really big new title.

@Scottwood101
The last Luigi's Mansion game sold 6+ million copies. Luigi's Mansion is no Mario or Zelda, but let's not put that franchise in the same "league" as Starfox, Metroid, and F-Zero (i.e. low 1-3 million sellers that have a rocky history in terms of critical and commercial relevance).

Tough ask, but possible. Q3/4 last year added a bit over 10m units. I would expect an increase YOY but whether it reaches the extra 5m is wholly dependent on Pokemon Let's Go attracting the somewhat more casual console owner.

Year one was the games that we held back from Wii U. Year two has been the Wii U port year. Year three is where things should really get interesting and the games hit their stride. I predict sales will tick along nicely and then get a big boost this time next year.

This will be especially so if they launch a new cheaper SKU, and a high end one. Loads of people will go out and buy a second console at the higher price point, and loads of kids will join in the fun at lower price point.

Nintendo's quarterly software shipments / LTD sales comparison:

3DS Q1 2011: 9.43 million / 9.43 million (Feb/Mar launch)
3DS Q2 2011: 4.54 million / 13.97 million
3DS Q3 2011: 3.59 million / 17.56 million
3DS Q4 2011: 19.90 million / 37.46 million
3DS Q1 2012: 7.96 million / 45.42 million
3DS Q2 2012: 7.39 million / 52.81 million
3DS Q3 2012: 11.64 million / 64.45 million

Wii U Q4 2012: 11.69 million / 11.69 million (Nov.Dec launch)
Wii U Q1 2013: 1.73 million / 13.42 million
Wii U Q2 2013: 1.03 million / 14.54 million
Wii U Q3 2013: 5.27 million / 19.71 million
Wii U Q4 2013: 9.66 million / 29.37 million
Wii U Q1 2014: 2.91 million / 32.28 million
Wii U Q2 2014: 4.39 million / 36.67 million

Switch Q1 2017: 5.46 million / 5.46 million (March launch)
Switch Q2 2017: 8.14 million / 13.60 million
Switch Q3 2017: 13.88 million / 27.48 million
Switch Q4 2017: 25.08 million / 52.57 million
Switch Q1 2018: 16.40 million / 68.97 million
Switch Q2 2018: 17.96 million / 86.93 million
Switch Q3 2018: 24.17 million / 110.10 million

Switch software sales are on track to double 3DS software sales. Nintendo will almost certainly raise their FY 2018 Switch software sales forecast soon, likely from 100 million to ~115 million or beyond.

I dont think they wil get 20 target, but I sure hope so

Nintendo still have One more thing to do.
Release the 32 GB Cartridges and make sure the cartidge price is Not too expensive for developers in order to make more sales.
If the price of cartridge is not expensive, the indie developers can release their games in Physical and people can keep the games for very long time.

So what? The Switch should be compared to other handhelds, not consoles. Switch has had poor sales for the first half of the year, 5 million. How they expect to sell 15 million for the remainder of the year and reach their target of 20 million, I'm not sure. I very much doubt that's going to happen.

@TheGhostWhoWalks
Nintendo's target is to ship an additional 14.93 million Switch units from October 1st 2018 to March 31st 2018.

@Medic_alert I can easily agree with 75 million as a max. I'd like to see 200 million and nintendo kick everyone else's butt.

i dont think 20 is possible without a china release, also many people that will buy smash will already have a switch

@westman98 Interesting to see Switch and 3DS hardware numbers similarity.

A price cut could propel Switch to the next tier sales-wise, but they're probably not going to do it before Christmas. Maybe in January to stimulate sales and reach for that 20 million target...

They dropped the ball in the 2nd year by riding on the success of the first year. The Switch could have had a monster 2nd year if they had just built on everything they done right in the first. The hype is gone from the console now and it's solely reliant on software and this year has been frankly piss poor.Next year looks promising for games but I think the opportunity to create hype around the console itself is gone now. An updated model could fix that but I'm not so sure.

I reckon the Switch will be a 50 million seller but it could have been a 100 million seller.

I dunno if Nintendo can hit that target. People (including me)said Smash would save the Wii U, yet nothing of the sort occured. A mild bump at launch but that was it.

And I don't thinkt he Pokemon effect is enough to sell 15m units, not without some cheaper bundles or sales.

it does feel like it has lost some momentum of late. I still use mine, handhold only mainly for Indies now. My youngest son loves his and plays both handheld and docked whenever he can but both my elder son and my wife have not touched theirs in quite a while. The fact my wife wanted one at all was a shock to us all and I think she may still use it here and there. I'll be interested to see what next year brings and hope it re-energises the switch

@Medic_alert I don't care what the "marketing" says. It's a handheld with tacked on TV Out.

@gcunit
Well at this point, the 3DS had already received its infamous 2011 price-cut as well as the 2012 launch of the 3DS XL. The Switch had none of these, yet sales are still a bit ahead. That's really good IMO.

@Mogster
The Wii U was a console that was struggling to sell 3 million units annually, while the Switch sold that much in the last quarter alone without any massive new blockbuster releases. The Switch and Wii U aren't even remotely in the same playing field in terms of commercial relevance, so I find the "X didn't help the Wii U so X won't help the Switch" comments to be ridiculous.

@GrailUK that is exactly the crux of the matter, converting some mobile Go players to Switch and from what I keep hearing lots of people seem to know someone who is a Go player picking up a Switch just for Let's Go. I hear the counter argument that interest is low, pre-orders are low comparitively, and hype is on the downside. However i'm off the impression the audience potentially buying into this isn't really into declaring their love/interest on gaming forums, or pre-ordering at their local gaming store. Don't play it myself but I bet there is, or going to be, plenty of push on Pokemon Go for the new Switch game.

@OorWullie 100 million sounds much more likely than 50, especially if it has a price cut sometime next year. The software lineup will be huge over the next 14 months.

I still don't quite get how they believe the Switch to sell 20 millions HW by march 31 2019, but hey, who am I?

It's another 15 millions in 6 months starting october. It's true that in the Holydays they sell everything like it was hot cakes, but still...

I don’t think they’ll reach their target. As others have pointed out, Smash never saved the Wii U, and I don’t see it shifting that many more consoles. With Animal Crossing and a real Pokémon game on the horizon, I can see the Switch eventually come close to SNES numbers in the end, though.

@BladedKnight agree on your thoughts about pokemon go. Not something I will pick up on day one. If it was a proper pokemon game that would be another story altogether...

I don't understand this constant argument of "no big new titles announced" somehow converting into a lack of sales growth on the Switch console... If you don't own a Switch console yet, then the list of games you have available, that are new to you, include everything already released. Granted an announcement of a new mainline Pokemon game coming out would boost sales, but there is no reason to believe they can't shift 10m units at Christmas just as things are today.

I expect them to lower the price of the console by around £30/£40 and then they will encourage retailers to "soft bundle" 1, 2 or 3 games of your choice for x, y, or z amount more. I fully expect to see £299 console with Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey openly available, and that will shift a heck of a lot of units...

@westman98 No, their target is to sell 20 million for the full fiscal year. They've only sold 5 million for the first 6 months but expect to x3 that for the last 6 months. I don't think it's possible. Sure they've the Christmas period to come but they also have the January Blues through to March.

One of the greatest video game ever

Not too shabby.

It's strange though, because even though the Switch is a big success, I still keep wondering if Nintendo can sustain this level of popularity going forward so it ultimately ends up being one of Nintendo's best selling systems.

I guess I'll see in time. . . .

Actually i'm quite optimistic for nintendo.. now seeing families in my neighbourhood buying switches who didn't buy anything last generation (so from wii to switch)... so a whole new demographic is entering the switch market.. 15m (20-5) in two quarters seems to be quite a lot though, but 11 would be nice.. catching that N64 along the way...

@westman98 and I find your arrogance ridiculous, so jog on!

Actually i'm quite optimistic for nintendo.. now seeing families in my neighbourhood buying switches who didn't buy anything last generation (so from wii to switch)... so a whole new demographic is entering the switch market.. 15m (20-5) in two quarters seems to be quite a lot though, but 11 would be nice.. catching that N64 along the way...

Good stuff and we love you gamecube

@nocdaes,

Some people on here are always looking at it from a core video gamers perspective,people who post on gaming forums and probably own other consoles,they will certainly have owned a Wii U so all these ports and indie titles are pointless in their eyes.

Back in the real world and mass market see the Switch as a pretty cool piece of kit that will appeal to families,to somebody like that the system has tonnes of content.

The system will have it's evergreen Nintendo titles like Mario kart 8,which will be like a new game to a lot of potential adopters,the system will sell tonnes over the holiday period.

My beloved GameCube 😍 ... I thought and hoped it was more but meh, I really don't know about Pokémon and Smash shifting units, I talk to loads of kids to young adults in work about games barring Pokémon they have no clue what Smash Bros is, hell some don't even know what a Switch is ... A game that will shift will be Metroid and possibly Bayo 3

@Wesjedker Just use the ''Ignore'' button.

@NintyNate,

Metroid will never push big numbers it's to much of a niche title,the system sellers will be Pokemon and Smash.

I would not read too much into people no having any knowledge of a game or console,people at my place of work do not know what E3 is...

Honestly I think that target rests mainly on the reaction to Pokémon. Smash games in the past have seen an uptick in sales but nothing massive but Pokemon could sell tons. Guess we will have more of an idea in a few weeks when Pokemon hits.

@westman98 sais "The Wii U was a console that was struggling to sell 3 million units annually, while the Switch sold that much in the last quarter alone "

DISTRIBUTED not SOLD !

Thos numbers are ridiculous because I remember that I couldn't find a Switch easily in store the first year. Now the stores are full of Switches...

Not the same at all...

@Joe-b I think the Switch will settle somewhere between the 3DS and the GBA saleswise. It's a hot item now but I think the next generation of consoles will give it a tough time.

@BladedKnight world wide and to the casual non gamer Pokemon is a much bigger draw than smash. Among gaming snobs... yeah we love smash... but seriously no way smash moves more consoles than Pokemon.

@NintyNate both Metroid and Bayonetta struggle to sell 2 mio copies of one of their outings. They're not the big franchises people make them out to be. Pokémon and Smash on the other hand are huge. Pokémon sold over 10 million copies time and again, a lot of them even close to 15 million, and Smash sold over 10 million as well with its last outing on 3DS/Wii U.

@subpopz I remember that time vividly. Even as a child I was stunned that it was available for 99 € one year after it's launch in Europe.

@westman98 To be fair there's only been 2 Luigi's mansion games compare to the larger number games Mario,Zelda and Star Fox had.

still think the 3rd game will sell pretty well however.

They could probably sell another 5 million AT LEAST this holiday season due to Pokemon and Smash releasing.

Will the Switch ever surpass the 32 millions of the N64?Find out in the next exciting episode of Dragon Ball Z!!!

@johnvboy Yep, that's exactly my feeling. And, if Nintendo do feel a little nervous about their target, they can stimulate sales massively by playing with the price. They haven't stimulated sales with a price drop yet on hardware OR on their core software titles either... Huge potential this Christmas.

Great numbers, Smash and Pokemon will be HUGE. Q42017 was strong for the Switch, I expect Q4 2018 to do quite a bit better.

@cowntsikin
That wouldn't be enough to hit the target though. There's no way they're selling around 10 million units in the final quarter.

I'm so Proud of you Nintendo, Nintendo Switch hits 22.86 million units sold can almost beat Xbox One has 30 million units sold.

@Medic_alert how come when Metroid got unveiled, it generated more hype than Zelda or Mario or Pokémon?? Lol

@NintyNate that was between gamers. As people have told you before if metroid sells 2M units it will be a HUGE sucess

Switch won't probably reach the 20M mark this fiscal year even though I wouldn't be too surprise if it sells 10M+ this following quarter (pending on how well sells Pokémon and if they do price drop around black Friday/bundles).
Is that really an issue? I would say no, it isn't. It had a very good last quarter and the momentum will carry on from a good holiday season to a great line up of games next year.

@Cobalt do you know that they only distribute more hardware if the ones on the shelves are sold correct? Lol

@westman98 Thanks for the numbers. Nice of Ntinedo to release the 3DS and Switch in the same quarter for comparison purposes. My best guess is PS5 in Q1 2020, 2019 belongs to TLoU2 and Ghosts, which will make for nice Switch comparisons going forward.

Glad to see Switch finally pass sales of the Gamecube, which was also a failure sales wise according to Ntineod but that was a long time ago, so we can stop talking about the poor Wii U sales which was always a sad comparison. After this holiday we can even start to focus on the N64, then SNES and NES. Then we can focus on handhelds for awhile b/c reaching Wii numbers is gonna be tough.

Projections of Switch sales are the most difficult anyone has ever had asw e relaly dont' know what Nintneod is going to do with it. Wii U was on sale for 4 eyars, it started at $299 and ended at $299 with very few bundles or revisions. 3DS started at $249, quickly dropped to $179, then was followed by a $199 XL and $149 2DS. So you can all guess whatever you want how Switch will end, but nobody has any idea, it's all just guesswork, b/c we have no idea what Nitnedo is going to do with the Switch once 3DS fades away in another year or 2, or what PS5 and X2 will look like. If Nintneod isinsits on keeping the current Switch bundle and current $299 price for 4 years sales will fall off a cliff. If it introduces a Switch Mini, Switch Tv, New Switch, and drops prices like it did with the 2DS, then it could hit 100 million. But nobody knows, it's all just so much guesswork. Nobody even knows for sure if there will be a 4DS, or a New Newer 3DS, or a New 3DS Micro. Not sure how anyone can guess Switch sales when they have no idea what the competition will bring, either from Sony, Microsoft or Ntinedo itself. And how long until they decide they need Switch 2 with 4k power to keep up with the competition? Switch could last 4 years like Wii U or 8 years like 3DS, we don't know. Probably not even Ntinedo knows yet.

Nice read in the comments section for a change, carry on everyone.

@rjejr Agreed. The 3DS price cut saved the system, and actually sky rocketed it to success. I love the Switch as much as the next guy, but if they want to move units with the casual crowd they need to drop the price, or at that very least make some appealing bundles.

20m units is not going to happen, but I hope I am proven wrong.

@Balta666

You're not totally right on that...

They ship MUCH more in this period because of Christmas...
So, the base is not the same at all...

I really love my switch as Day One, I have bought so many tiles like I haven't for other consoles, I'm over 20 titles! Can't wait for the new titles. I think it will be close to 20 million (like 17,18 million).

I hope they hit the mark but I think around 15 million total is more likely.

@itslukec "they need to drop the price, or at that very least make some appealing bundles."

I read several comments about them dropping the price this holiday, which sounds logical and all, PS4 Slim will probably hit $199, maybe even $149 Black Friday if Sony has the PS5 ready to go next year behind the scenes, but this is Nintendo, and the only logic they do is Nintendo Logic. My guess is if they were planing on dropping the price we wouldn't have bundles for Pokemon, SSBU - which launches this Friday - and Diablo at $359. It's kind of late for an across the board price cut. I suppose we could see some BF sales, but I'm not expecting much. If Nintneod announces a price drop on Switch next week after selling SSBU bundles all weekend for $359 that's not going to go down well. So no price cut this holiday, and I'm really not expecting much in the way of Switch sales either, not even BF week.

Next year we'll see.

Their yearly target was 20m, they have 5m but have 15m to go.

I really don't see Pokemon or Smash selling 15m consoles in 2 quarters, i could be wrong but i doubt i am.

If Nintendo decide to upgrade the online offering with some SNES games, maybe a proper voice chatting system and some multi media functions such as Netflix and YouTube before Xmas, along with the games they got coming, i can see them doing 10 to 12m in the next 2 quarters... 15 would still be a very tall order, but maybe with an additional price drop, yeah they could prob do 15.

@OorWullie What game(s) specifically do you think should have been released so that they weren’t dropping the ball?

@rjejr Very true. They don't want to burn the people who paid full price. haha. I just don't see them making their target, doesn't seem possible.

@Cobalt distributed is sold jgdshkesdjmls, the company sold it to retailers, it's then up to them to sell it to consumers. Companies can't track what's been sold to consumers at any given minute around the world

They should drop the price a little bit.
Maybe the release of an updated Switch can boost the sales as well.
I'll buy any Nintendo console as long they keep releasing Good Zelda games, and I've known many people like me.
If/when Nintendo releases another Zelda game for the Switch it will help the sales and the marketing for the console.
And the guys here on the comment session have already listed many titles that are system sellers as well.

The GameCube has been outsold? Now things are getting interesting.
Cue naysayer Brenna Hillier joke. Yes, Brenna. I'm never living this down.

Given the slowdown in major releases this year, the sales for the most recent quarter aren't surprising. The underwhelming rollout for NSO didn't help either.

I haven't gotten a Pokemon game since Crystal, but I think people are underestimating how the Let's Go games will move units (especially since they're geared for the Pokemon Go crows), and Smash will definitely do its part. Ironic that it has now passed the Gamecube, because it was Smash that did the most for that console.

I won't be surprised if they miss the 20 million mark, but they'll be fairly close.

Prediction The Switch will ship at least 7 million during the Holiday season with it shipping 9 million at most. January-March it’ll sell 2-4 million with the help of NSMBU and TSA. Final Sales 14-16 million

Next stop, the OG Xbox.

@Cobalt maybe try an English school, just in case your "jokes" make sense to anyone but yourself

@gloom It's not really the lack of any specific game I'm meaning, it's just this years line up as a whole, I feel it's been lacking. I'm a huge fan of Nintendo's 1st party output yet this year the only game I've bought from them is Mario Tennis. I'll also get Smash despite not being a huge fan of the series but 2 Nintendo games for me in the entirety of the consoles second calender year is pretty poor. If I hadn't been an owner of a Wii U I would have played and loved Donkey Kong TF, Captain Toad etc.. so would have been overall more happy though.

Now I'm not implying they need to release games to suit my tastes but the reason I have bought their consoles for the last 20 years is they usually do have enough each year to keep me happy so somethings gone wrong this year.

If I am to name specific games that would have made this years line up more exciting for me and I imagine much of the Nintendo fan base. Mario Maker or a brand new 2D title would have been good,instead we're getting NSMBU in January so we won't be getting one of those for a while. Something new and exciting like Splatoon would have been great. A better Kirby than we got would also have been great as would have the rumoured Starfox Grand Prix. Reviving a quality older 3rd party IP like they done with Bayonetta 2 would have been superb. Just 2 or 3 of those mixed in with Smash and Pokémon and this years line up would have looked a lot different.

@electrolite77 "It isn’t just Pokemon and Smash that will tempt buyers at Christmas. It’s Pokemon, Smash, Mario Party, Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Kirby, Splatoon etc."

People will say "but but but we already own all those games!!!!"

Maybe so but people buying a brand new Switch don't.

@3rdParty Too many, around 170. So why am I complaining? Haha The vast majority of those are indie games and Neo Geo/Arcade Archives. I've got loads of shoot 'em ups,over 30. I'm a big retro gamer and really enjoy good indie games so when it comes to those kind of games, Switch has me spoiled for choice. This year and last has been great for those. Like most though, I like the big games too.

Just to be clear, I'm happy with my Switch, love the console. It's just Nintendo's output on it I'm less than impressed with.

Pokemon lets go is a goner. Many seemed uninterested, not even veteran/competitive pokemon gamers.i get the vibe that the devs in gamefreak is getting more incompetent.

Combining the elements of pokemon GO is the first turn off.Combining with elements from the pokemon "anime" puts the final nail in the coffin for me. This will be the 2nd pokemon game i will not be buying with the first being Ultra Sun and moon.

I don't think they hit 20, but I could see 17 or 18 million since holiday this year is probably still going to be big and slightly bigger than last year if I had to guess.

@itslukec "I just don't see them making their target"

15 million in 5 months does seem a bit of stretch but they probably just couldn't come up with a better number. Like an instant replay in sports where they don't overturn it b/c it isn't conclusive.

The Switch will sell, and the Smash and Diablo 3 bundles will sell, they probably didn't make that many D3 bundles. For me the real wildcards are the 2 Pokemon bundles. I know Pokemon Go is big with the casuals, but will the casuals want to spend $399 on a Switch bundle? That's a lot of money to play Pokemon, it's twice the price of any 3DS model that parents typically buy for their kids for Pokemon games.

I always thought the Wii U sold poorly at launch in small part b/c people couldn't decide between $299 for a gameless system w/ 8GB of storage and $349 for Nintendo Land and 32GB, so they chose neither while they waited, or bought a cheap PS3 or X360 instead. Now parents have to decide between $299, $359 for SSBU a full month before you can even play the game, and $399 where they have to choose between Pikachu or Eevee. Maybe they just wait until next year instead?

Or maybe they all sell. Nintnedo doens't know, hence no change in the 20m number.

Considering the two biggest games have yet to be released this year, these are great sales. As for those who say software has sucked this year, how do you possibly find the time to play everything that’s already been released? My switch backlog is enormous!

Ouch, 5M YTD? With 20M expected by March? I don't see them doing 75% of their sales in the back half of the year. Christmas is their big time. They could easily do 50% of their sales at Chrsitmas. But 75% of their year November to March? That seems unlikely.

The number was, of course, always a joke...I'm not sure why Nintendo loves throwing huge numbers that are not realistic at investors, and why investors buy it. 20M in the year was never realistic, and that's not a failure, but by projecting it it makes it look like one. I can see them moving another 8M or so at Christmas. That would be more than double Jan-Oct in 2 months. That's doable. 10M by end of fiscal year. That's not another 15M. Pokemon will sell very well but it won't move consoles like handhelds because it's a home console Pokemon on a $300 machine, not a $150 machine. Smash is going to have long tail sales for years, but it's not going to be a BotW/RDR2 day one blowout sales affair. It'll sell respectably, it'll be a good year, but that 20M # while banking on a new Pokemon concept and Smash alone just wasn't going to do.

I think Switch will continue with a growing attach rate. People who buy Switches love to buy games, moreso than a huge X1/PS install base chunk. Nintendo's money now is in selling software to the demographic that likes switch more than trying to make Switch ubiquitous right away. PS put a console in every house, but half those people buy FIFA or COD or Fortnite and nothing else. Software, not consoles, make money, so the install bases aren't as relevant as long as attach is fantastic. I could see Switch surpassing the PS4 attach rate which at 7 is high, but not as high as the huge library would make it appear.

This could all change if we find out Animal Crossing releases before end of fiscal year. I'm expecting June (like New Leaf) or holiday 2019. If they release it in Feb/Mar, they may make that 20M number after all. DxM isn't going to move those numbers of consoles.

20 million units should be achievable. Christmas sales bouyed by Smash & Pokemon will certainly push them over 13-15million sold for the second year, leaving the last quarter to be mopped up by Fire emblem, Daemon X and a few others. Perfectly doable in my opinion.

@ClassSonicSatAm
There aren't exactly a lot of Metroid, Starfox, or F-Zero games...

@NintyNate Metroid has never been a big seller (for a Nintendo franchise). The highest selling game was Metroid Prime on the Gamecube and sold 2.8 million. The worse selling Super Smash Bros. game was on the Wii U and that sold a little over 5 million (not including digital sales).

Put into perspective, the best selling Metroid game sold about half what the WORSE selling Super Smash Bros. game sold. Super Smash Bros. shifts units, Metroid does not.

@Medic_alert who's Seamus? Lol

Whether they reach their goal is really gonna depend on what games they have lined up for Q3 and Q4. We know of a lot of 2019 titles, but not how many of them fall within this financial year.

If they can squeeze in another big hitter, I think they can do it. I think Animal crossing would be a big help here, since this tends to pull in a lot of the casuals and it's one of the few big ips that pulls in a lot of women.

Regardless they are doing something the others fail to accomplish. If one is only looking at numbers then they missed the bigger picture.

Nintendo switch is awesome deserves every sale. great system

@Medic_alert haha that's good I like it... I know Metroid is not a seller and it's only for the die hards, but I have never seen such a bunch of crazy reactions to MP4 that beat any hype for any Mario or Zelda or Pokémon game like I said... I don't know have to wait and see

@Cobalt
I love how the narrative changed from "Nintendo is purposefully withholding stock to artificially inflate demand" to "Nintendo is purposefully overshipping stock to artificially inflate demand"...

@Joe-b @Joe-b I think it will reach a little over the 70m mark. So I'll go with 74m, to be exact.

@westman98 Well there's more then two games in their series, Star Fox, Metroid, F-zero have also been around since the early 90's... Luigi only had one game of his own on the Gamecube, then about 12 years later he gets a 2nd one.

think about it's took nearly 20 years just to make 3 games out of this... having said that, each one is really good, and I'm sure the 3rd game will follow.

@ClassSonicSatAm
To put things into perspective, the first Luigi's Mansion has comfortably outsold any Metroid game despite being a wildly new Mario/Luigi spin-off launch title, while Luigi's Mansion 2 is fairly close to outselling all 3 Metroid Prime games combined.

I don't think the sparse release of Luigi's Mansion games has done anything to help its popularity. It's just an appealing game series.

The Switch would of had more momentum if they had not bungled Nintendo Online. I stopped playing online along with a few friends when it became a paid subscription. I've had to sacrifice playing Mario Kart 8DX and Splatoon 2 and focused my efforts on XBOX instead. I'm hoping that the online infrastructure improves sometime soon otherwise Smash Bros Ultimate will more than likely be my last purchase for Switch.

@BladedKnight Not sure how Smash Bros will push Switch units. It seems that everyone that wants Smash Bros got the system at launch or soon thereafter.

Those complaining must like to pay xbox, ps4 online expensive service plans.

@MongolRaider nice number. I'll take it. Plus 5 more:)

@westman98 Yeah but you forget there's been Metroid games since the NES/Famicom games, and been re-released alot of times, nearly every single Nintendo system has a few games of it besides the game boy color, n64 and Switch, even Nintendo Land on Wii U had a huge Metroid sub game

and intill the 3DS came along with the 2nd and eventually a port of the 1st game, not many even play the two games, yeah I just said they very good games, it's not like the series has much chance to mess with it's formula.

Luigi's mansion is only just becoming more well known thanks to the 3DS having the two games it has so far... getting people hyped for it's 3rd game.

That said, Metroid, Star Fox and F-Zero STILL have the larger series of games.

@ClassSonicSatAm
My whole point is that, unless the game is really bad, Luigi's Mansion 3 could sell 7+ million copies lifetime if sales of other big 1st-party Switch games are of any indication. I can't see any Metroid or Starfox game ever selling that much. (Prime 4 could sell that much, if it is really good and supports online multiplayer).

Metroid and StarFox are bigger franchises solely due to the fact that both franchises have seen much more frequent releases. F-Zero is just flat-out irrelevant.

@westman98 So what your saying is Metroid, F-zero and StarFox don't have any good games that are on par with either of the two Luigi's mansion games?

@ClassSonicSatAm
When have I ever commented on the quality of any of the games I mentioned?

I simply said Luigi's Mansion 3 will be a very successful game and likely one of the bigger Switch games of 2019, alongside the core Gen 8 Pokemon title and Animal Crossing. Not that it or its predecessors are better than the best Metroid, StarFox, or F-Zero games...