Nintendo Switch Sales Are Trending Well Above Wii U, and Could Even Catch the Wii

Yeah, I kinda saw that coming too. The Wii was an unexpected phenomenon but the Switch is just something else.

Unique system, clear name, and a launch with two of the greatest games of all time... who knew this was how you do it?!?!?

Because the Wii Sold so overwhelmingly well, I really doubt the Switch will surpass it. But I fully expect it to sell rather well.

However if the Switch evolves the way I think it will, becoming a "family" of systems like the 3DS after the 3DS is discontinued... then it might actually sell as well as the Wii did.

It's only the lack of a Virtual Console that's stopping it from being the perfect system for me personally

I couldn't give 2 hoots about Netflix apps and web browsers. I have my Mobile phone for all of that which is never more than a metre away from me

Never going to catch the Wii but I can see the 3ds for sure. We will never see Wii sales again.

Not that it was that much of a chall--

WHAT? THE WII?!?!

@Muddy_4_Ever
Wait, one is Breath Of The Wild, the other is...?
Don't say "Odyssey", you said "launch" yourself.

It might catch the Wii if they start producing more of it, that's rather essential. They had 12-13 million Wiis available the first year, and managed to ship 25 million units per year for three consecutive years after that.

With an estimate from Nintendo that sounds like targeting 18 to 20 million Switch units for the 2018-2019 period, they won't be catching up anytime soon.

It's really great to read all this positive news. It's been a rough few years as a Nintendo fan where we were more used to reading of games being cancelled rather than games being announced.Nintendolife is a much livelier and overall more pleasant place to visit too. They can't report on news when there is nothing to report after all. The dark days of the Wii U years are behind us.It's a great time to be a Nintendo fan.

@AlexSora89 Fun fact, the Wii launched with Twilight Princess.

And Twilight Princess was a GameCube game.

Wii was so cheap though. Switch probably won't see a significant price drop for another 9-12 months, depending on supply.

Ahhhhhhhhhh it's nice to be relevant in the gaming world again isn't it Nintendo fans.

Why can't it match the sales of the original Wii?

Seriously - why not?

I've said it before - the Switch is well positioned to capture a huge chunk of the ca. 150 million a year tablet market. Almost all of those tablets are used primarily (or exclusively) for playing games, watching Netflix (or similar) and browsing the web. Switch is definitely better at playing games and it could be just as good for watching Netflix.

@Wolfy76700
Which makes it a great sign, no doubt!

@AlexSora89 Launch-ish. Considering widespread ready availability of the Switch and its first holiday cycle haven't happened yet, Odyssey will be there at the moment the Switch is ubitiquitous in the console market.

Switch sales will be a tad slower due to the higher cost of entry, a non-holiday launch, and lack of a bonus killer app in the box. The Wii was also the cheapest home console on the market at the time, as it was only AU$400 compared to the AU$650 Xbox 360 and the AU$1000 PS3!!!

Unlike the Wii, however, the Switch has a hell of a lot more going for it hardware-wise, and with what is quickly shaping up to be a stronger library than the Wii ever had in its first year alone, the future looks even brighter than the Wii in the long-term.

No-one will be buying Switch for the pack-in game (or Wii Fit etc.) only for it to collect dust within a matter of days/weeks. Those who splurge on a Switch are generally interested in the software library more broadly, and fewer units will be sold due to novelty value alone. Switch may not achieve Wii levels of momentum right away, but it has the potential to gain a substantially more loyal user base than the Wii ever had.

The fact that more and more users can take their Switch with them on the go and basically serve as free advertising will also have an impact, however, there needs to be more units in the wild to convince the wider market in the value of a dedicated gaming console over throwaway mobile games.

I don’t consider the Switch to be one of Nintendo’s best consoles (so far), but it has undoubtedly been a huge success, which I hope continues in the future!

@BensonUii
Oh, now I get it!

@Muddy_4_Ever
Yep, took me a while to realize, but sure!
New Zelda and new Mario, same year.
Handheld and home console.
USB charging (yes, that helps).
Compatibility with every control scheme ever conceived by Nintendo across thirty years.
My goodness this console is the gift that just never stops giving.

I'd like to see those graphs for other consoles! Can we get the Gamecube and N64 in the mix?

As stated in the article, the holiday season is coming up and will help it catch back up to Wii, since Wii started with its holiday season but Switch has yet to see one.

As per this graph you can see how bad the stock problem is on Japan. Nintendo needs to sort out that problem ASAP.

Comparing it with the Wii almost makes it look bad!

I think mass-produced dirty diapers could outsell the Wii U. I am curious to see the lifetime sales of the Switch, but I have pretty heavy doubts that it will outsell the Wii. The only thing the Switch has going for it in that regard is the fact that some families will buy more than one console for individual members of the family. In any case, we are looking at some good numbers here. It’s so nice to see Nintendo in an upswing again.

Not sure it will catch the Wii, but those are impressive numbers indeed. The real test is how it sells at the holidays. Reasons why it might catch the Wii is that Nintendo really underestimated the HD age, and by 2009, the Wii started to dramatically fall. Yes, yes, I know we're hitting a 4K age, but the difference isn't as stark as going from SD to HD. Plus the Switch has the portability factor working to it's benefit.

I don't know if it could catch up to the Wii, it felt like more of a game system and less of a fad like the wii was (not to knock the system, I preferred the virtual console there, and the system had some fun games and backwards compatability). Unless something with insane mass appeal beyond gamers like Wii Sports comes along, coupled with something that makes it appealing to folks not interested in gaming at all (I seem to recall a lot of folks using their Wii's as their primary netflix streaming device; maybe some emerging app or industry we haven't seen yet can thrive on the Switch). Refreshingly, I think it may do better than the Xbox one and hopefully catch up to the ps4, as the switch seems to fill a better niche than the other two (fun games with lower cost of entry for developers in an age where tech is prioirtized over innovation and fun).

Side note, maybe it's because I live in New York City, but I seem to have zero problem stumbling upon Switches. Each store has a few on hand, and the Nintendo World store gets them every day.

Obviously will be beat the Wii U in terms of sales, maybe even go above the Gamecube and N64. Nintendo is in a winning run

Not a chance will it reach Wii levels of sales. I don't believe it'll surpass 3DS. The Wii was a lightning bolt, a phenom, it captured the public imagination. The Switch hasn't and casual consumers won't pay €330 for a handheld that doesn't come with a game. The price difference between the 2 is about €140 when you factor in the cost of a game.

Don't think it will catch up with the Wii in terms of console sales. I do hope the games for Switch sell a lot better than Wii games did though, a lot of the Wii games were shovelware.

@Muddy_4_Ever They should have called it "Wii Us" to have some marketing chalenge (seems logical, we, you, us)

@Spoony_Tech Funny, I think Sony was talking Wii like sales for PS4.

http://www.pushsquare.com/news/2017/10/ps4_has_shipped_67_5_million_units_sony_increases_forecast

PS4 hado a pretty lame late 2017 after a great early start, but near it has several system sellers in GoW, Spiderman and TLoU2. Plus, if PSVR takes off, well it could maybe make it to 101. Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely rule it out.

For the Switch it will be all about iterations. If it stays $300 for 4 years like Wii U did then it's done for. But, Switch Lite, SwitchTV, New Switch. You add them all together at the right price and 101m could happen.

Switch has the benefit of getting all of the later Wii U games, plus probably some 3DS games like Ocotopath, plus multiple home console games like Doom, FIFA, Skyrim, plus in a year or 2 actual Switch games. That's a lot of games. And heck, if they wanted to sell it as a $150 tablet, give it apps, sell accessories, even PS2 160m could happen. Needs apps first though. And sales slowing enough for Nintendo to want to sell it that way as a replacement part, almost like a Wii Mini. Barebones Switch.

Sky's the limit, it's up to Nintendo really. Games, marketing, lower price. Switch can sell a lot for a long time.

Having stewed on it (and feeling bullish) I'll say this:

Switch will eventually outsell the Wii

I say this because:

a. early sales are very strong.

b. there is strong potential for sales/discounting further down the line. The Wii was much cheaper at launch and didn't have as much potential for increasing sales by cutting price.

c. the underlying technology invites iterations and SKUs that should ensure a longer life than the Wii. Because it will last one or two years more in the market as a credible force Switch sales will have time to catch up to the Wii sales if they fall behind in year 2.

d. It has no obvious direct competitor in the handheld space and no realistic route for any competitor to emerge against it in that market. Even in the most recent generation 3DS and Vita have (together) sold 85 million units. Wii sold around 100 million.

e. An exclusive Pokemon game in HD for the first time.

f. The underlying concept of Switch as a local multiplayer machine is especially strong for families with children. This is an audience that's perhaps not prevalent yet because of the variety of games on the platform and the high initial cost but that will change over time.

g. The gaming market has grown over the past 10 years because global populations have grown. Nintendo doesn't need the same slice of the pie for the Switch to be as big as the Wii because the pie has grown.

So what year will we get the Switch XL with a bigger screen (same overall size, just less bezel)?

And eventually the New/Super Switch with bigger screen, other hardware revisions, and more GPU power?

@StuTwo Pokémon is definitely a big factor, but it can only be unleashed on the world if a cheaper, more physically durable SKU drops with it. (Remember what the 2DS did to boost 3DS and Pokémon X/Y, and what Pokémon X/Y did to boost 3DS by itself)

The true power of the Switch and Pokémon shall be unleashed on the world when a $200 portable-only, kids-oriented Switch SKU blesses the world.

And if it also gets that Netflix and YouTube and Crunchyroll before that... Yeah, I'm pretty confident in the Switch's potential. Maybe not Wii-levels of confident but at least 3DS-levels of confident.

@holygeez03 It depends, if Pokémon drops next year I can definitely see a pure handheld-only Switch entering the market as soon as next year. Mostly because, Pokémon will sell systems but it can only help to have a cheaper SKU, and one that children can play with without completely busting it at that.

Yeah it's got no chance of reaching the Wii. It would have to outsell the PS4.

Crazy how great quality games sell games and consoles. Someone should tell the other games makers about this. 😆

@Wolfy76700 I'm sure the 'Pokemon 2DS-esq' SKU will arrive at some point.

@NewAdvent I think the big advantage the Switch has is that as Nintendo doesn't have to support 3DS going forwards and because they have a treasure trove of heavily overlooked Wii U games that will great run on Switch with little modification they'll be in a better position to avoid droughts than they ever have been.

@Wolfy76700 Just like BOTW is a Wii U game.

Its nowhere near the Wii...maybe with a generous price cut

@NewAdvent

It seems to be winning back a few old Nintendo fans tho (I'm one of em).
I always had a Nintendo console as my second console, up to buying a Wii, that put me off. I wasn't interested in the Wii U either. (got a 3ds tho.)
Something about the switch dragged me back. Maybe it's the some stellar games, or my slight jaded attitude towards the AAA type games with loot boxes etc.
Whatever it is I bet there are a few like me to keep the sales up.

I want to be optimistic, so I'll say it will eventually catch up to the Wii. Maybe not surpass it, but the race will be close.

I am seeing a bit of a fashion trend with the Switch. I'm guessing it won't be long before a couple of celebrities and social media influencers show up with some Switches decorated with some hip skins and what not and then all the wannabe cool kids will buy one.

In this age of deeper digital interaction, it could potentially blow up. Even if it is just for superficial reasons.

@NewAdvent It's still technically possible that sales will drop off precipitously, but I don't think you can attribute 7 million units sold to "hardcore Nintendo fans". For the first few months, that was probably true. Now, though? I think it's pretty safe to say that Nintendo has reclaimed mainstream attention with a very cool new format for games and several big games that are considered "important" for all dedicated gamers to play (BOTW, Splatoon 2 and SMO, in case it wasn't obvious) and a bunch more games coming that people already know from other platforms but would love to have in portable form.

The next big hurdle is getting enough multiplatform titles that significant numbers of people will start to think of the Switch as a viable alternative to PS and XBox, not just "the supplementary console" or the new handheld. And honestly, I don't think that goal is too unrealistic. I think it can be attained with just a few more big name releases, along with more exclusives which I'm sure Nintendo are working on.

This is going to happen. Game publishers don't succeed by ignoring consoles that sell. From here on out, you are going to see more and more people trying to get their multiplats on the Switch. Not necessarily launching on the same day as the PS/X/PC versions, but soon afterwards.

Doom, Skyrim and Wolfenstein - but especially Doom - are the titles that devs and publishers are going to be watching closely on launch. If Doom's first weekend sales are ANY good, the floodgates will open wide, and in the next few months there will be more multiplat announcements than Switch fans can keep up with.

At this point I think Nintendo can only lose momentum if they decide to rest on their laurels and totally forget about seeking new titles. And even if they do that - which they won't - the Switch will still sell more than enough to see them through to the next generation, be it the Switch 2 or whatever new weirdness Nintendo can come up with. It won't hit Wii numbers, but Nintendo don't actually need to hit Wii numbers to stay in the game.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE you don't believe or you don't want it too? Chances are it'll surpass the 3DS, as the next logical upgrade for all those people with a 3DS is the Switch. Sure you will probably lose a few million due to price point but that will be balanced by the millions of console gamers who like the portability factor along with dedicated console gamers who like Ninty games. Add that with a possible price drop or Switch lite if some form for a more economically minded individual and hitting 70 million definitely sounds feasible.

@Bobbycuckoo @JSG87 Me three. I only bought a Wii secondhand after WiiU was already out. The WiiU just didn't excite me at all, and I didn't really take to the Wii either - I mainly bought it so we could keep playing GC games if my GC died (still going strong, btw!). I actually didn't buy any console in the last couple of generations, switching over completely to PC, handheld and board games (yes, really. Board games are awesome) for my gaming needs.

I always liked Ninty's handhelds and kept buying new ones, which my girls shared and inherited as I upgraded. We all still play things on our 3DSes. But the consoles weren't doing it for me. Switch caught my attention when it was still "NX", and I ended up buying it on launch day, standing in line at Toys'r'Us to get it, BOTW and Super Bomberman R. It has kept me captive from day one, and my girls love it, too. Someone in the family plays on our Switch at least once a day, every day since I bought it.

Probably already my favorite console ever, maybe tied with the Gamecube which has been my fave for many years. Nintendo are back for real, no matter what happens.

@MsgBoardGamer True, those are discouraging turns. But I really think Doom will be massive and Skyrim will sell pretty well at least. Those are games with big communities. I think Wulfenstein is more a PC franchise - I could be wrong about that.

I guess we'll find out soon. Keeping my fingers crossed. I am getting Doom ASAP and hoping for Skyrim soon after launch.

Nope, i don,t expect to see ever again the Wii/PS2 sales number in the market.

@Nintendoforlife Now hopefully those Microsoft and Sony fans will feel how we have felt the past 5 years!

I doubt it will pass the Wii...

BUT...

It is possible... considering the Switch is a hybrid console, it has one benefit the Wii never had: The Switch has a much higher chance of selling multiple units per household. I'm already considering buying another for my wife once Pokemon drops.

@StuTwo You are so right about the family market. It is such a great system for families. My girls have taken the Switch to school, brought it when they came to work with me, and of course on road trips and flights. (You need a power block tho!) And we play a ton at home on TV, multiplayer or taking turns at Stardew Valley or whatever. ARMS is our go-to competitive game.

Gaming on the Switch has been a great family activity. And there is a huge potential market of families like ours that haven't got Switches yet. When they start to buy in, the Switch will really blow up.

A price drop for a budget version would help a lot, though. $300 is a lot of money. I've bought multiple 3DSes for the family, but the price was doable. Not sure I can do that for the Switch.

The Switch is on track to surpass both the Wii’s & PS4’s first year sales, and it’s trajectory is like a hockey stick. As supply grows to meet demand, the sales continue to rise. Nintendo will need many more games from a ton of publishers to continue this past this fiscal year, but right now everything is gravy. Nintendo just needs to have it or it’s partners announce great games for 2018 and this should continue for at least another year.

I’d say right now the Switch is heading to 50-75 million units sold. It’ll break 100 if the software releases keep up, but that’s impossible to call right now.

The greatest threat continues to be the unexpected announcement of a similar product by Sony. It would not surprise me one bit.

@-DG

That is actually a huge factor. The Switch will clearly benefit from many households buying more than 1...and then imagine the resulting accessory sales.

Nintendo is going to make a lot of money here.

@Agent721 I don't think Sony releasing a similar product is as big of a threat as you might imagine.

Firstly because I don't think it's likely. The Vita failed so badly despite being a conceptually similar device in handheld mode so a 'Vita 2' is almost certainly a non-starter.

A genuine hybrid from Sony to provide an even more direct competitor would face different challenges - it would clash with and dilute the positioning of the PS4 in the home mode and face the same compromises in handheld mode.

It would also be highly reliant on 3rd parties being willing to 'down port' major games to weaker hardware (and the existence of such ports would immediately help Nintendo more than it would help Sony).

Ontop of which Sony would also be facing a well resourced competitor that has already built a formidable beach head in the market, that has momentum and has that market as its sole focus (Nintendo themselves).

It's not impossible for a company like Sony to break into the hybrid market but it's a very hard nut to crack just now. By the earliest time they could launch a Switch competitor the Switch will have an install base upwards of 15 million and the potential to gazump a Sony launch by dramatically cutting prices.

Eventually Sony will have to respond to the Switch in some way but time is still on their side for now - the PS4 really could become the best selling console ever and these are likely its most profitable days.

@Leostacks it's not unusual. Here in the Midwest we have seen 2-5 Switches at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Gamestop on a regular basis. For the past 3 months it hasn't been hard to find a Switch in a store if someone was really looking for one. That should change in the next 2 months, that's my guess.

Back OT, IMO one view is that overall sales should be lower than the Wii, due to the Wii being so popular even parents no grandparents wanted one. The Switch will "mostly" be purchased by gamers.

Having said that. If Nintendo can get 1st year Wii quantities on the shelves it could be possible to sell them. No matter what it will be interesting to watch how it plays out.

It can't possibly catch the Wii. Nintendo isn't making enough of them. They're almost always sold out. My local Best Buy is stocked on Sundays and by Tuesday it's sold out. You can't sell more than you make it's just not possible

@Mahe goes in to hiding every time he sees these articles.

The hell is wrong with Japan? Why was the Wii U higher than the Switch at first???

I definitely don’t think it will sell as well as wii. The wii came at the perfect time in 2007 when smartphone were just starting but their weren’t any games for casual gamers to get their fix. Now they have mobile games so casual gamers aren’t going to buy the switch. I still think the switch is going to sell really well though.

@Marios-love-child
I agree. I don't get the whole Web browser argument. I'm not interested in using the Switch that way and I doubt many people would.
I'm sure it'll come eventually but hopefully Nintendo are concentrating on more important things

@Yasaal

Supply and possibly timing.
The supply of switch in Japan is notoriously low, so I'm lead to believe.

@StuTwo

Every single investment or stock news conference with Sony has the Switch brought up and how it affects the PS4 sales. Especially in Japan, where the Switch is selling twice as fast as the PS4. Investors are concerned and you can bet Sony is too. When you are outsold in both the US and Japan, and with no chance of that changing anytime soon, you will respond. Investors are concerned and invest based on what comes next and not what has just happened. And for Sony, the lifecycle of the PS4 is starting to be put under the microscope given the Switches upending of the console market. You may not be concerned for Sony, but everyone else is.

The Vita failed as its games were not the main Sony console games, but if they can somehow come out with a system that plays the exact same games at home and on the go, then I imagine it would sell extremely well. Why wouldn't it? The vita and PSP are poor examples as they were totally different games than what you had on the home consoles. The Uncharteds are different, the gods of war are different and there's no sports games comparable to the console versions. You do what Nintendo has done and it would sell well given the right price, accessibility, etc...basically, getting it right.

As a very long time investor in this space and has an even longer fellow gamer, I simply disagree with your premise. Perhaps if the PS4 does not suffer a drop in popularity, maybe Sony will stand still (they'd be stupid to do so, but Sony has been quite stupid before), but given that the health of the entire company depends on the Playstation brand, I guarantee you that Sony Switch copies are already being discussed internally. I'd almost be willing to bet the bank that the PS5 will have a hybrid component to it. VR simply isn't taking off and Sony, like all competitors, will look to see what is successful and will look to cash in on its own with the latest trends in the market, as they always have.

@Agent721
PS4 sales are the best they have ever been, despite the Switch outperforming it in the US and Japan.

Sony has no need to be concerned about the Switch. Both platforms have sold phenomenally well, and it's clear that the gaming industry isn't a zero-sum game.

@Agent721 don't get me wrong - if I were Sony I'd be terrified internally. Nintendo has won Japan. It's not obvious to everyone yet but it's now inevitable. Game over there - it's just a matter of time. The move from PS4 to PS5 is going to be a hard sell everywhere (partly because Sony have done everything so well with the PS4) but it might be near impossible in Japan.

My point is that Sony can't do it right without doing wrong the PS4 (an incredibly successful platform that will still be lucrative for many years to come if handled well) and handing the keys to the pure power home console market to Microsoft.

Switch games don't have to compromise. Mario Odyssey is the definitive version (& only needed to be made once). An Uncharted on the 'PlayStation Switch' will also have to be on the PS4 because of the install base. Either the handheld version will be inferior or the home version will be hobbled (& one will be a port that adds to development cost).

Even worse if they were to 'do it right' they'd have to face the same challenges with 3rd parties. Convince them to create feature complete portable friendly versions of their AAA games and investors will demand those games are ported to Switch because it will (inevitably at this point) have a much bigger install base for years to come.

In short I don't see a way in for Sony with a hybrid for the foreseeable future. Their best (only?) option is to ride the PS4 and push forward against Microsoft to own the home. If they can push graphics and the AAA model further then Switch will suffer and may look quaint by comparison.

@StuTwo

Great response! And I do agree that it wouldn’t be as good, as they’ve showed with the Move & other ventures. Their wound definitely be compromises made.

I do think they will try as it seems obvious to me that after using the Switch it feels inferior using my Xbone or PS4 and having them not be portable as well.

We shall see, the market will guide all participants. Cheers!

@MsgBoardGamer

Yes, I do realize how many they’ve sold and no, they do in fact compete in the exact same space.

@westman98

I never suggested it was a zero sum game. You may not be concerned about it’s effects on the PS brand, but I assure you those with money in the game are.

@Bobbycuckoo Exactly. Although the US had this problem as well at first they have taken control thankfully. Idk about Europe but Nintendo Japan really needs to get their machines running quicker.

@MsgBoardGamer

Come on man...Nintendo and all other video game manufacturers all compete for the exact same consumer dollar. The consumer who plays videogames consider them all and has a finite amount of disposable income to spend. I have a friend who owns an Xbox who wants both a PS4 & Switch, but can only buy one and still hasn’t chosen which they want. My little brother who’s 13 can’t afford any more consoles beyond an Xbox and has flat out chosen to stick to the Xbox ecosystem as he can’t afford any other console. I have grown adult friends making the same decisions. One guy has chosen not to buy a console as he prefers TV and only has so much time to spend on either.

So your premise is flat wrong. It’s basic economics to understand how consumer works and the choices they make regarding the income and time spent on entertainment.

I’ll add videogames also compete with movies, TVs, books and anything else people do with their disposable income.

Further, the Switch stock up until last month has been well below the demand for it so it would be tough to affect much else when you’re barely selling 250,000 Switches per month, yet demand is closer to 500,000 per month. Once supply hits demand, someone else will lose out. Let’s also not forget the Switch is projected to now outsell the total sales of every console ever released after 1 year, due to the supply increase. That will change the market, all competitors as well as consumer behavior.

I hope there’s enough money for every competitor to succeed as they wish, but that’s unlikely to occur.

If Nintendo can continue to keep a positive momentum with the Switch, I predict that it will be Nintendo third best selling system in the company's history.