Analysts Talk About Nintendo's Upcoming Mobile Release Strategy

Too early to say something about the topic considering we have seen NOTHING about their plans and the actual game(s) done by Nintendo for mobile. But I also agree that this is a desperate move by Nintendo considering just a few years ago they explicitely said they will never put Mario on mobile (The thing is, they said that when they were still doing big with Wii and DS). i just wish them the best on this new venture and hope they reveal their first game soon.

A desperate move? No way.
It won't happen, and shouldn't happen.

There's no way it will be there main focus. They are about to release a new console. If anything they are going to treat it as a way to just boost sales with easy revenue from iconic games like mario and etc.

@GreninJovan What do you mean it "won't" happen? It IS happening. They confirmed it early this year. Did you just completely and totally miss it? Or are you saying they're going to suddenly cancel it? Which is a load of croc, of course they're not going to cancel it.

That said, I can't agree with some of these analysts.

"We believe this is now going to be the core of the new Nintendo."

No it won't. Mobile pales in comparison to console gaming. Nintendo's going to use Mobile to bring more attention to their IP's and get Mobile fans into console gaming or Nintendo's handhelds.

@zayy862 Well, they're about to "announce" a new console, anyway.

So basically random opinions any NL reader could have given, got it.

So are they still going to make a mobile game? Or is this saying that they are canelling jt?

@andrea987
Yeah, it's only really an analysis when they share how they came to their conclusion, otherwise it's just another opinion no more informative than any other.

@andrea987 We are much smarter than this though.

From what I've read, it sounds like console & handheld gaming has already become a niche thing in Japan, and in the West, the core gamer market is already wrapped up by Sony & MS.

So yes I hink analysts are right to say Nintendo need to make this stick. The difficult part is the change of attitude needed with mobile games. It's not at all about big flashy releases of super polished products, but rather soft launching a bunch of titles, evolving them in the wild based on metrics, then once the game clicks with consumers, piling in the marketing money.

If Nintendo try to do things "the Nintendo way" they may be in for a rude awakening. However, I believe after their first mobile game flops (and by flop, I mean Angry Birds 2 level of success - great by most people's standards, but pretty mediocre in the grand scheme of the app store), that Nintendo will turn to DeNA and be like "OK, we'll try it your way". And over 3 or 4 games, they'll eventually get it right. Learn when to slap their IP on an otherwise anonymous game that shows really good metrics.(This is where I disagree that the first game will be all or nothing. I think the overall venture must be made to work, but the first Nintendo mobile game will simply be formative, and success will.come a little further down the line)

Well, that was just some open doors. Nothing mind-blowing. Though the "desperate" part: I don't know. Even if everything was breezy, they might still have jumped on the mobile-wagon. Easy money....always nice!!

@SanderEvers i wouldn't expect PlayStation and Xbox leaving the game market any time soon.
and tbh Steam Box cost WAY to much more then an Xbox One/PS4. (there like what $450?) i rather get an Xbox One/PS4 then a Steam Box (costing wise at least)

A desperate move? Yes, that's how it came across to me. Making mobile their focus? Heck no! Nintendo has already started that they are looking to us mobile to help push people back towards the console games. I'm expecting tie-in games that might give a bonus of some kind in the console games. Even though it's operating separately from Nintendo the Pokemon Company is looking at ways to use Pokemon Go with future games in the series. I imagine it's because Nintendo already has that planned and Pokemon is looking to tap into it. Will this make it break Nintendo? Hardly. It's an old and strong company. It's not going anywhere.

@SanderEvers Yes exactly, but it'll also extend to "Smart TVs" and tablets/mobiles running Windows 10 or Android (or Steam OS??), with Playstation and Xbox and Steam simply being storefront apps on them, through which you buy and run games, chat to friends on Xbox Live or PSN or whatever. I figure NX is an intermediary step in going towards that "device agnostic" future. That is, Nintendo's mobile games also work on the NX's (rumoured) handheld/mobile unit. If NX runs on Android, then all NX games would in theory be able to run on a bunch of other devices as well, and over time, consoles as stand-alone physical boxes (as we know them today) will sell less and less and eventually be phased out in 5 years time.

Hence the recent news that Xbox is now measuring Xbox Live engagement and subscriptions as their key performance indicator rather than raw Xbox One units sold. (Especially since Xbox Live, and presumably all Xbox games eventually, are coming to Windows 10 PC's. Plus also comments made a few months back by Phil Spencer about "We should have built something like Steam")

It's almost as if these guys out are already writing the NX off.....

No Pach? But i like him

@Bliquid It was more of an "It could go badly, but it had better go well for Nintendo's sake", and sadly i find myself agreeing with him...

The 3DS is running out of steam by now (Mobile took over the "Quick gaming on the go"-market), the WiiU was pretty much a non-starter, the NX is a big unknown, Nintendo can't keep going on their cash reserves forever, so the sudden about-face concerning mobile gaming from a company as stubborn as Nintendo is a telling sign, next year is going to be very important for Nintendo, for better or worse...

And... Doooooom!

How about this? Why don't you let us like PLAY the game that Nintendo has released on the phones and THEN you make analysts huh? By then, no one would even care about it anymore.

I think it is a very savvy move tbh. Getting the Nintendo brand back in to cultural consciousness (or whatever they call it). It's not just about them making games, it's about people recognising the company (people who most likely wouldn't read this website!).

@JaidynReiman I mean that it won't be a desperate move.

Something many have seemed to have forgotten is that DENA and Nintendos deal was that the games must also come to the Wii U (cant remember if it included the 3ds but may do) I think that this will keep the Wii U and 3DS afloat for a bit whilst awaiting the NX but I am actually wondering if the NX from what it looks like on patents etc is a redesigned or updated form factored wii U minus a disc drive - could it be that the NX hardware is actually software that will be able to run on Wii U, 3DS, tablets, pc etc with the games requiring more horse power being only able to play on actual NX hardware? or that the expected new service coming to replace club nintendo is a pay per month or subscription access to virtual console style titles that cross over to other platforms for example being able to play select NES, SNES, N64, GC, GB, GBA, NDS, 3(2)DS titles on hardware that can run them ie android tablets, high end phones or through cloud gaming to underperforming hardware, as to be fair Im pretty sure streaming super mario bros 3 wouldn't be too hard, but look how the New 3DS is able to "stream" the players whilst the environment is on the cart in one of its exclusive games - is it Dragons Quest?.. I was using the NX as a reason not to buy a Wii U (I went out and bought one a couple of months back and its the best fun I have had playing games in years, so felt quite stupid for waiting so soon), however when I read about the DENA agreement it explains why there might be a lack of software to Wii U currently as it may actually already be in development for the service, they just cant talk about it as it would show Sony MS etc the killer app / features that it wants to protect... then there is the thought of the 3ds Wii U connectivity 3ds gaming on move replicating the wii u pad - then returning home to carry on playing the wii u version of the game (albeit in different resolutions)... it is coming nintendo have been experimenting on connectivity and how people play for years. And yes they did say the mobile gaming strategy was to introduce people to nintendo - remind them what they love about nintendo and to bring them back in to the nintendo gaming fold. Xbox one struggling with games in 1080p? My Wii U and its games seem to be fine running in 1080p! and again this is down to the power and performance, if nintendo shift some of it to the cloud with all current hardware then it could redifine the current console wars and nintendo would be making massive profits of lowering manufacturing costs of current equipment

Here is a question though Nintendo, why are your indie games on average 3 times more than on rival consoles?!? and your digital software sometimes over a third more than buying the retail disc version?!?

Since mobile gaming is huge in Japan at the moment, they really need this to work, and I can see it being a big focus for them. However, I doubt this will replace consoles because that'll alienate a lot of their most loyal customers.

It's not a desperate move, it's stupid. Nintendo gleefully stumbles into the Sparta of moneygrubbing and expect them to share. This is about as blind to the market as it can get. I predict utter failure - not in the sense that nobody will download their junk (way too many people will grab whatever they can with the Nintendo logo on it), but in the sense that close to none of those little runts will ever be convinced to buy a Nintendo console based on a mobile game. That'd mean that either the console games would be reduced to mobile-level quality (Happy Home Designer and Triforce Heroes are good examples for that), or that they'd create console-quality level games on mobiles, which would be an enormous waste of staff and resources that they can't afford to sacrifice on a market that is all about low effort.
No matter how I look at it, mobile gaming is a gambit Nintendo can only lose, and I can hardly wait for the day it happens.

@Kaze_Memaryu One man's junk is another man's treasure. I do not see why they cannot succed with mobile gaming while I ignore it totally and focus on console gaming.

When a analyst say that "mobile will be the main focus" I know that he's a bad analyst that know nothing from Nintendo, only numbers.

Possibly couldn't care less about what analysts have to say. Nintendo needs to utilize a massive marketing campaign for their NX and upcoming mobile games, plain and simple.

Shut up, Pachter! Oh wait....

Nearly every human on the planet knows who Mario is. And when all those humans see Mario on the appstore, they're going to download it.

"Don't worry, Pachter wasn't among them." THANK. JESUS. I'm getting tired of listening to his crap. I'm positive that these are some rather intelligent comments-
"We believe this is now going to be the core of the new Nintendo."
Nope! I was wrong!

So once again Nintendo is doomed?

I would actually push for simple mobile apps aside from games. I know I would like some official wallpapers, ringtones, etc. for my phone

If the mobile market is kind to Nintendo I fear they will go that way in the future. Nintendo's bottom line has always been to get their games in the hands of as many fans as they can. If that's the mobile market then so be it. They are a proud company but if they can make the same experiences on mobile somehow I think they will be satisfied.

How Nintendo charge for games will be critical. As a family orientated company, they will suffer if they force countless micropayments out of kids. I'd rather pay a few quid upfront, knowing I get a complete game (for myself or my sons). Or go the Mario Kart 8 way and offer major DLC later. Also, wouldn't a Nintendo phone with a D-pad and buttons be nice to play the games on!? However that won't matter if all we're getting is Mario Candy Crush or Angry Yoshis...

@SanderEvers Sony and MS get much mor money from software than hardware, thats why they sometimes sell at loss. Making it straight out PC means that the software money will go to Valve. MS could make the most accessible Steam Box, because they can give Windows even for free, they even cogited to run Windows on Xbo , but they didn't because people would buy games from other stores. Sony doesn't own Windows, doesn't have enough first party games and their PC division was in the red before they shut it down. Why in the world would they throw away a market which clearly still exists?

No, the new console is coming out, they CAN'T focus on mobile games and let that be the "core" of nintendo. If that's true, it's going to be hard times for Nintendo.

No, the new console is coming out, they CAN'T focus on mobile games and let that be the "core" of nintendo. If that's true, it's going to be hard times for Nintendo.

Smartest move Nintendo made since the Wii and DS, as long as they keep their franchises relevant and advertise the real deal (NX) they won't have another Wii U situation on their hands.
Of course they really need to push both and they should think before they make any more leotarded decisions they are prone to make.

Forbes puts nintendos market cap at 22 billion dollars. Seems some people here need to be reminded of that.

@Savino lol

Wasn't Nintendo in talks of developing mobile games with DeNA since like 2010??

@Savino well if its primary function is Kent to be gaming then it is a console

Nintendo won't move over to mobile gaming its a stupid suggestion, could you imagine Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash, Metroid etc on mobile? they would be terrible

In terms of profit only, the analysts could be right. I can see parents buying loads of Nintendo mobile games for their kids providing pricing is right or quality is good enough. Pokemon Go looks like a sound idea and though the Pokemon Company is a little separate, it's still Nintendo since only Nintendo consoles play Pokemon. But can mobile gaming can really attract people back to traditional gaming on a home console? The two are very different propositions for the most part. I think Nintendo needs fingers in both pies. It's not over yet!

@rjer I can see you PGL fitting in somewhere in this dystopian future! Please, no.....

I don't want to play Mario on my phone, hell no! It doesn't have buttons, and I'm not attaching/grafting on a controller to make it have buttons.

I think these analysts are right. (See how focusing on those who aren't Pachter yields more reasonable results?) Nintendo's capital alliance with DeNA will inevitably preclude them from not putting further resources into mobile. Perhaps, we may someday even see main line portable titles on mobile. The creation and success of titles like Pokemon Shuffle, AC: Happy Home Designer, and Triforce Heroes proves that mobile style titles, and by proxy the mobile industry, will become a focus of Nintendo's in the future. (Even if not necessarily their core focus.) It is wishful thinking to believe they absolutely won't do so.

I have to agree with Amir Anvarzadeh, Nintendo was more or less forced by the market to switch over into this game plan. Iwata entered talks with the CEO of DeNA years ago, but at the same time, rebutted any calls to embrace mobile. Iwata knew this was a possibility, and was preparing for it. Nintendo has been dragged into the mobile industry kicking and screaming, or at least reluctantly.

The notion of using mobile to bring people over to consoles is a misnomer. If the mobile titles are good, then most people will just stick with them. Why bother with paying a lot more for something else if what you have is good enough? If the mobile titles are not so good, then people REALLY won't bother with console titles. If they can't get smaller titles right, how can they handle bigger projects? That's probably how most casual gamers would see it.

"The core of New Nintendo..."

I hopen ot.

I definitely agree it's a desperate move. Nintendo have always denied it, and it's clear they'd rather just focus on their own hardware but that's stuttered so badly this generation they have no choice.

I also agree it will become their main focus. They're going to make a RIDICULOUS amount of money from this. There are plenty of mobile games out there, made by a handful of people that make more money in a month than Nintendo does in a whole year. The problem facing mobile devs is how do you get your game noticed with so much competition? If you're Nintendo, you don't have that problem. That first game alone is going to become their most profitable product since Wii Fit.

@Sakura - "dystopian future"

Of that I'm sure. Though I'm not sure of the form.

Handheld consoles are surely doomed after NX, which really is the only market as MS has never had one and Sony is done after Vita, and today's smart phones make Start Trek's Tricorder look like an AM/FM transistor radio. And smart tvs only need a little more time and a Dualshock in the box to do away with home consoles too. Then everything is download only. And smaller in size. And probably subscription based where every game becomes WoW.

Bad for gamers equals good for everyone else?

@Bliquid He's a CEO, so he gets paid more than just about anyone else in his company. Not to mention, he runs it.

Can someone clarify for certain how much Nintendo is making these games and how much Nintdo is licensing the IP out to DeNA? If Nintnedo is making the games in house, then yes that is a develoment focus, if Nintnedo is just the producer, OKing the workand collecting a cut of th eprofits, then it dosn't interfere at all with their game making or focus,it' sjust a licnesing dal adn some more money in their pocket at this point.

There are plenty of Mario K'nex block sets, but I don't see anybody worried about that taking away too much from Ninteod's game making and block building becoming Nintndo's main focus.

As far as I can tell this is just a licensing deal - that's lawyer time, not programmer time - spent on these games. With hopefully a little over-site, we don't want any Mario Mandeer porn or slasher games, but oversite takes much less time and effort than actually doing the work.

Of course we can't really tell until we see the games. Match 3 and endless runners wont be confused w/ SSB, MK or Zelda. When we see "real" games rather than "app" games on smart devices then I'll believe Nitnod has moved over. But right now we don't know. But my hunch is IP licensing, not that big of a deal.

lol...desperate...right, whatever.

"Don't worry, Pachter wasn't among them" Love it.

"If [Mario] fails, it could be game over" Question-Has Mario ever failed to do well for Nintendo? As in, units sold. In the Mobile Market, Mario doesn't have to worry about selling Hardware.

@Peach64 I think the stability of mobile market is a bit dubious Angry Brids height of success and Rovio being the "king" of the mobile market what was called "The New Mario" has petered out and the first game only released in 2009/2010.

The leaders of the Mobile Market are Supercell with Clash of the Clans(2012, and Boom Beach(2013)...a Clash of the Clans clone, their two lastest games Spooky Pop(2014) was discontinued in 2015 and Smash Land(2015) launched this April and was cancelled in this July. There's also King with Candy Crush and a bunch of Candy Crush clones. When the Market Leaders have trouble making anything but clones of their own games is it really a reliable market?

While Nintendo are attempting to enter it with Pokemon Go and other games partnered with DeNa. My first guess would be that Nintendo's foray into mobile is just going to be used as a giant signpost to point the market towards their home console and handhelds as opposed to the "core" of the market since any company who's "core" is mobile doesn't seem to be long lived atleast not for the long term success Nintendo is built around.

What we learn here is that we have no idea cause there is no information. But the people who make money on the app store do it by ripping of people and constantly updating their stuff and always stay on top of the situation...that all doesn't sound like Nintendo.

@rjejr I really hope that there will still be a strong enough market to allow the publication of high quality games from all the main publishers. It will have to be priced right, but it could possibly succeed in a form that will surprise. Maybe PC, maybe smart TV, maybe even NX? Things have to change to stay profitable, but at least there's a chance with change - things remaining the same might mean no more good games at all as companies fold. Not keen on subscription models or digital only, or streaming or even multiplayer online only. Those things make me shudder. Guess we have to wait and see. Lots of things have come and gone, not all necessairly bad ideas, just not fitting in with modern life. Hope we can ditch the bits that are truly dystopian. Come on people! Vote with your wallets!

Analysts, Comments here, oh well, ..., Really nobody wait for results and expect something positive?, oh wait..., really I asked this before...

What's with the subtitle? Pachter is a good analyst, just a horribly bad visionary.

Just don't confuse the two.

@Zelkardaim But he claimed this will be a success?

I agree with the last guy - Nintendo didn't want to do it but they need to. They will succeed, but it won't become a new core, but a new pillar.

Remember Reggie's speech where he talked about how no one knows anyone who's never seen a movie or read a book, but we all know someone who's never played a video game? and how the Wii and DS were supposed to change that by making video games a mass medium that everyone of all ages experiences? Yeah, that actually ended up happening through Facebook and smartphones instead. That's the audience that Nintendo's going to focus on with mobile, which is why they've said their dedicated game consoles are more focused on core gamers going forward.

It'll be interesting to see if they can find their niche there, since so much of the Touch Generations-type stuff on Wii and DS was stuff that's already available from lots of other sources on mobile (100 Classic Books, Brain Age, Nintendogs, Personal Trainer: Cooking/Walking, Clubhouse Games). A lot of the DS's success (and, to a lesser extent, all handheld consoles before) had to do with smartphones not being invented yet. So do they just keep doing that stuff but with Nintendo quality? I could see them putting out a Clubhouse Games on mobile — free to start, maybe a Wii Sports Club-style pricing model, and overall nothing that really makes it look Nintendo-y other than it's fun and it's polished and it doesn't have obnoxious ads. I could definitely see them doing Nintendogs on mobile, and I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't do a Personal Trainer: Walking / Wii Fit successor. The problem they'd have to deal with there is that on the DS, all that stuff was unique by default; on mobile phones right now, there's a huge amount of competition in that area (and all areas, really). High quality and polish might not be enough to make their games and/or apps stand out.

Nintendo is dooooooomed.

@faint Nintendo ran at a loss for a couple of years, they posted a profit at the May 7 2015 earnings call for the first time since 2011, 22 billion is a lot of money (I don't have it lying around myself), but it won't last forever, Nintendo needs to turn a reliable profit sometime soon, just going "Oh well, we still have money" isn't a good business plan...

@MysticX Hey. You know how the world economy has been difficult for everyone. Well funny thing about business is if you operate at a loss for 3 consecutive years you can claim your tax back. Tesco did it in the UK recently. They sold their stores, reclaimed some tax (whilst still having the cash from those stores so they can buy new premises.) This is actually a strategy especially if a company is planning to expand. One that gets you a substantial amount of funds.

....and they just promoted a banker....not a gamer...just saying.

I doubt it'll be their new focus but I wouldn't be surprised if it effectively becomes a new branch of Nintendo. There's a lot of cross over but the mobile, handheld console and home console markets are all after different things and experiences.

When I load a game on my phone it's because my train is delayed 5mins and I want a brief distraction that I can close when the train gets here and not care about. When I load a game in my 3DS it's because I've got a 30min commute so I want something I can get my teeth into but also play in relatively short bursts so I don't miss my stop. When I load a game on my WiiU or PS4 it's because I'm wanting to spend the next hour or two or three getting really stuck into a game. I wouldn't play Shooty Skies in my WiiU for the same reason I wouldn't play Windwaker on my iPhone.

If Nintendo releases a Dr. Mario game they will probably rake in the cash.

IN GENERAL: I'm very disappointed in Serkan Toto, he makes a lot of sense most of the times and made some interesting predictions towards NX, but saying mobile will make or break the company is ludicrous beyond belief and stinks of "this will be Nintendo's Dreamcast". Which it won't...
The other two analysts are also using magic 8-ball prophecies, but then again what did I expect? Pachter or not, in general, analysts are sometimes right but more often than not they use a lot of fuzzy terms that can easily be taken out of context to fit anyone's truth when the things they analyzed have finally happened in order to produce that wonderful "I told you so" feeling. Much like reading a horoscope...

@SanderEvers Some smart comments, but it may not be as straightforward as that: Sony still hasn't done an awful lot with Gaikai, the cloud gaming company they bought, and from several reports and rumors, it sounds like they are moving towards a form of Roku box much like PS TV, streaming all their games and there being no more need for, as you already said, a real console.

And Microsoft or rather Xbox may disappear altogether as quite a few important shareholders have been progressively vocal since Steve Balmer's resignation about abandoning the Xbox department altogether, and it is also pretty obvious that they don't NEED the gaming department as much as Sony does to make a lot of money. (and contrary to popular belief fueled by the success of the PS4, gaming also isn't responsible for Sony's biggest income; that's movies, music and insurances)
So yeah, @Aozz Microsoft and Sony may well disappear from gaming or make a streaming box instead of a full blown console. Subscriptions can easily take care of the profits they need to make from that. Nintendo can't do that as easily, seeing as making consoles and handhelds is its core business, so going the same route wouldn't be useful or good to them.

@Savino Well, then I think you need to think about it some more. NX is NOT going to be a mobile device that can be used as a console. Iwata has clearly stated several times that NX is a dedicated game system/platform and will possess an architecture that can be shared across other systems to make both the console and handheld systems act like brothers, meaning they will be able to run the same system software in some shape or form, making development of games significantly easier.

@PlywoodStick The mobile games actually WILL be used as a form of bait: Iwata, Reggie and also the CEO of DeNA have said as much. They will be high quality teasers with a message to give people a taste of Nintendo and lure them to Nintendo's consoles and handhelds to get the full blown experience. They are not meant to create another market for Nintendo. (yet another reason why these analysts are completely off their rocker)

@rjejr Well, call me someone... It is actually pretty well documented in several articles (there was even one here on NLife) that the games will be made by DeNA, with just a small skeleton crew of overseers from Nintendo directing some parts, but other than that, development of the mobile games will have next to no impact on Nintendo's core business and their own work on the NX platform/architecture.

@erv An analyst without vision IS a bad analyst. Don't confuse yourself...

@MysticX Quite true. However, it also gives them a fair amount of wiggle room and time to turn things around. This means more thought out plans and decisions rather than panicked rash decisions.

@TheRealThanos - "development of the mobile games will have next to no impact on Nintendo's core business"

Well that was my point, it's more of a licensing deal than a company make-over, but I wasn't sure enough in my convictions to write it, that's what your for. Had you written that sentence first post half the comments on here would be unnecessary. Well more unnecessary than usual.

Nintendo will make a huge profit from the mobile market but they will focus on more developed ideas for NX and try to keep that way their good gaming reputation. NX hybrid concept will help them handle software development better than during the current generation.

Happy that confused fortune teller Patcher isn't here.

@rjejr You're welcome, slightly older man...
You know, I always wonder how so many things are missed by so many people or how collective memory apparently gets warped to believe something that has actually never even been said. It's almost fascinating, but I'd rather just stick to information that's actually there and connect the dots.

It is indeed obvious that it is a licensing deal, also taking into account the consolidation of all of Nintendo's departments and personnel into one building (as opposed to separate locations for console and handheld) and DeNA is still its own (and an external) company in a separate location with its own management.

Honestly, I love mobile gaming, but I only play mobile games if they are re -releases of actual console games. GTA3, Sonic CD, Mario World (Shh don't tell Nintendo I've been emulating). Therefore, to me, mobile gaming is dead without console gaming. There's not enough exclusive quality content on the app store for it to stan on its own. it's like the vine that's being held up by the pillar.

@TheRealThanos True, that may be the intentions of Nintendo's executives, but as I mentioned, I doubt their plan will turn out as they expect it to... Perhaps some more inquisitive people will be interested, but the majority of the mobile market (casual players) will most likely just stick with the mobile offerings. Why would they pay more?

I think we all know that Amir Anvarzadeh is right.

@Hordak I was thinking about that. It makes perfect sense, really.

I'd say it's ridiculous to "believe this is now going to be the core of the new Nintendo."

People are tired of smart phone games. They've been a thing for almost eight years now, and as with any standardized platform, the universally agreed upon input methods and by now firmly established design dogmas will start to bore people.

It's also a weird assumption that the first game will make or break anything, when Nintendo has committed to publishing five titles.

The last one gets it right, but seems to refrains from making any market predictions.

Mine are that Nintendo will be successful with mobile games. Sufficiently successful to funnel a substantial amount of money back into their own hardware development programs.