Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

I am slightly baffled as to why this was a shadow drop announcement. AC is kind of a big deal so you'd think they'd have announced this in the September Direct. I mean it is a S2E show it's not THAT big but AC sold well enough that this is a Direct-worthy announcement.

@Bolt_Strike Nintendo usually saves an announcement or two for just before the November earnings report. Last year was XCX and Nintendo Music, 2023 was MK8 Deluxe DLC wave 6 and some hardware bundles, 2022 was Indie World, etc.

I'd say the weirdest thing about this announcement is that they're already promoting their January game while there's complete silence about their December game.

@Grumblevolcano None of those are new game announcements except XCX, so this is still a tad unusual. A game this big usually isn't shadow-dropped, it's usually announced in a Direct.

I'm not really sure this game is taking much away from Prime 4, it's a S2E so there's not as much new to promote. But yeah, this does come back to Nintendo promoting everything except Prime 4.

Really my larger concern is that this is another IP that feels due for a new entry and is only getting a Switch 1 port. ACNH was 5 years ago and it feels like the next game should be soon... but if we're getting a S2E of AC (which honestly this game wasn't even on my radar for S2E candidates, live service/evergreen games like this are probably better suited for new entries rather than ports of older games) that signals that the next AC game isn't until 2027 at the earliest (probably even later). And the Switch 2 desperately needs new, original entries, especially from their higher selling IPs (i.e. IPs that have sold 10+ million copies on the Switch). This is crossing another IP off the list of "new, original entries of larger IPs we could see in 2026" (and by "larger" I mean anything that sold 10+ million on the Switch) and that could seriously stall the Switch 2's momentum. Granted I'm not an AC fan so this doesn't really hurt me specifically, but there's a lot of Nintendo fans that are and a new AC game is definitely one that could sell Switch 2s to Nintendo fans that are on the fence and want to see more/better games. A S2E of ACNH isn't going to move the needle quite as much on that front.

I think the 2026 lineup will look something like this:

January - Animal Crossing New Horizons S2E
February - Mario Tennis Fever, Pokémon Champions
March - Super Mario Bros Wonder S2E
April - Yoshi and the Mysterious Book
May - Tomodachi Life Living the Dream
June - Pokémon Pokopia
July - Splatoon Raiders
August - Rhythm Heaven Groove
September - Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave
October - ???
November - Pokémon Gen 10, ???
December - N/A

I think October will end up being Luigi's Mansion 4 and the second November game will be another S2E (Switch Sports maybe?). Toss in another game or two and that's the year's lineup.

Would be an alright lineup.

@IceClimbers Does the Mario movie count as the April release? Then push Yoshi 1-2 months later?

@IceClimbers There's a big, 3D Mario shaped hole in this lineup and the new 3D Mario missing 2026 would be a major miss for Switch 2 when every console has had a 3D Mario by at least the end of their second year. Hell I would rather Luigi's Mansion 4 be pushed to 2027 than 3D Mario. That's way too big an IP and system seller to wait until Year 3 or later, especially when the flagship 3D Mario is designed around new hardware features and positioned as a way to sell said features.

And I don't want to hear "oh it needs time". How much more time does it need? It's been 8 years since Odyssey. Bowser's Fury is basically a small scale tech demo and everything else is just ports. And DK Bananza is a side project and there's key staff from the Tokyo team that haven't worked on anything in years. There's a real feeling like the Tokyo team has been twiddling their thumbs for 8 years, this game should be almost ready. Where tf is it?

@Bolt_Strike I think it all depends on much of the Odyssey team worked on DK.

I got the sense was a good portion of team. With the smaller team on Mario, I suspect April 2027 is realistic for new Mario. It would hit with a few months left in year 2 of the system.

If it was a smaller portion on DK. Then I can see it being the big title of 2026, announced in Feb direct.

@RobLife1 Nintendo Forecast on Youtube goes into this kind of thing a lot, he specializes in deep-diving the credits to predict future announcements. Here is what he had to say based on Bananza and Galaxy 1+2:

tl;dw on these videos:

It seems like after Odyssey, EPD8 was experimenting with the voxel technology for an Odyssey 2 but they started to feel like it would be better for DK, so he estimates that around 2021, EPD8 has split into two teams, although they're still fairly intertwined like the AC and Splatoon teams used to be. One worked on Bananza, that was run by Kazuya Takahashi and is mainly composed of new programmers and many of Odyssey's art designers. Many bigwigs in EPD8 also have supervisory positions on Bananza, which suggests that they were more credited for experimenting with the voxel technology early on and they were more guiding the newbies than doing any serious work. The second team hasn't done much since Bowser's Fury and is likely working on 3D Mario. As for Galaxy 1+2, that was primarily developed by NST and not much of EPD8 worked on that.

NF doesn't explicitly give his thoughts on future 3D Mario entries, but it does seem like there's plenty of room for a Bowser's Fury followup to have been worked on simultaneously. It's hard to tell which one is "bigger" or "smaller" because the lower level employees constantly shift around different projects and are hired/fired, but many of the senior executives in EPD8 have had little to no involvement in Bananza and are likely putting more focus on 3D Mario. So I personally think it's realistic to see 3D Mario by Holiday 2026 (perhaps a tad optimistic, but still within the realm of possibility).

@IceClimbers
I think one of the unannounced fall 2026 games will be the next 2D Metroid, by then it will have been 5 years since Metroid Dread.

@westman98 I wouldn't complain.

Still, given the 19 year gap between Fusion and Dread, I'd think it's a bit much to assume that they've got any kind of regular schedule in mind for 2D Metroid games.

@Matt_Barber I think the reason for that is that they didn't have a developer to work on 2D Metroid. Now they have MercurySteam, so I think we'll see a more consistent schedule from 2D Metroid for as long as MercurySteam is willing to work on it. And I don't think they're sick of Metroid yet.

@Bolt_Strike I don't think that the problem was ever a lack of developers. Sakamoto reportedly canceled two previous attempts to make the game because he didn't think that they were going to be good enough. MercurySteam obviously managed to convince him otherwise with great results, but the main reason why there was a big gap is that he's that picky.

So yes, I'd like to see them making another game but he'd need to be feeling it for it to happen, and they've also been working on other projects since Dread, so I don't think it's a given.

Just wanted to add to @Matt_Barber 's post yesterday about adding Wii games to NSO:

I hope that, either at some point into the NSO GCN library or if Wii gets added, they give us the option to offload and re-download games as each addition is now topping over 1GB which may not sound like much but will certainly add up over time.

@Matt_Barber Well he's been very chatty about future entries after Dread and assuring the fanbase that Dread is not the end, so I don't think his partnership with MercurySteam has soured just yet. I know the industry tends to conceal any kind of internal friction and convince the public that everyone's getting along, but in this case it seems like MercurySteam has brought 2D Metroid relative success and it sounds like they're doing a good job of realizing Sakomoto's vision, I don't think they've split up quite yet.

@IceClimbers It's crazy that we already know 11 games in the 2026 Switch/Switch 2 lineup. Technically 10, but Pokemon gen X is assumed. That is far more than we normally know this time of year.

I have 2 different prediction timelines for 2026:

Prediction 1

• January - ACNH Switch 2 Edition
• February - Mario Tennis Fever, Pokemon Champions
• March - Tomodachi Life Living the Dream, SMB Wonder Switch 2 Edition
• April - Yoshi and the Mysterious Book
• May - Pokemon Pokopia
• June - Rhythm Heaven Groove
• July - Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave
• August - Zelda remaster for Switch 1
• September - Splatoon Raiders
• October - Kirby remake for Switch 1, Luigi's Mansion 4
• November - Pokemon Gen 10

Prediction 2

• January - ACNH Switch 2 Edition
• February - Mario Tennis Fever, Pokemon Champions
• March - Metroid Prime 4
• April - Yoshi and the Mysterious Book
• May - Tomodachi Life Living the Dream, SMB Wonder Switch 2 Edition
• June - Pokemon Pokopia
• July - Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave
• August - Rhythm Heaven Groove
• September - Splatoon Raiders
• October - Zelda remaster for Switch 1, Luigi's Mansion 4
• November - Pokemon Gen 10
• December - Kirby remake for Switch 1

I think there'll be a few unannounced Switch 1 games considering Nintendo said they're adding NSO voucher games throughout 2026. I could see a Zelda remaster act like how Galaxy 1+2 was used this year in conjunction with the movie the following year and Kirby seems to regularly appear towards the end of a system's life (most recently Epic Yarn being the final 1st party 3DS game in March 2019).

LM4 and Pokemon Gen 10 would coincide with franchise anniversaries and the former fits with Next Level's release cycle. Fortune's Weave I think is July to mirror Three Houses timing and Splatoon Raiders in September would be able to time with the end of year 2's Splatfest repeat cycle.

The rest of the prediction timings pretty much comes down to whether Prime 4 is delayed. I feel you can't rule it out completely considering Advance Wars 1+2 had its first delay from December 3rd 2021 to Spring 2022 announced in late October 2021 and Prime 4 has been complete silence since the September general Direct.

@Grumblevolcano
No new Mario? Surely they can't be that cruel...

@NotASockPuppet I'm sure 3D mario will at least be announced next year but I wouldn't bet on it arriving next year.

But I also think there is a decent chance it will be announced in February for late 2026. 2026 is already packed but, aside from Gen X Pokemon, it is mostly packed with smaller games, DLCs, and spinoffs.

@FishyS I kinda have to disagree on that. It would be a shot in the foot not releasing a 3D Mario (or even a new 2D Mario), it's Nintendo's killer app alongside Zelda and Super Smash Bros., not releasing one of them in the second year would hurt potential sales. The whole thing feels like Sonic X-Treme for the Saturn.
I might be wrong, but I have a feeling them depending on "smaller games, DLC, and spinoffs" for over the year without a major installment of either Mario or Zelda is going to make them sink rather then gain.

@NotASockPuppet Gen X Pokemon will be a killer app but I agree it would be good to have 2 of them next year to keep Switch 2 momentum. And... the recent news basically guarantees new Animal Crossing (another killer app) won't be in 2026.