Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Bolt_Strike Pretty sure Air Riders and Prime 4 are also A-Tier in this scenario.

Ain't no serious person calling Prime 4 a B-tier game smh

Zelda yes because clearly the Zelda team isn't capable of turning out a Zelda game in less than 6 years since going open world. So Zelda 2029 I guess if the pattern holds.

Mario not so much. The Mario team is rumored to have expanded in order to make Bananza and they haven't done much since Odyssey (and nothing since like, 2021). And they've never put out a 3D Mario later than the 2nd year of the console, your flagship IP is absolutely something you want ASAP so I can't see them passing up an early Mario game for Bananza, they probably only agreed to this because they had the resources for both. So it's absolutely feasible to see Mario in 2026, and in fact history suggests it will be short of a delay.

Spinoffs are never made by the same team as the main series, Raiders is probably not being made by EPD5, it's probably someone else.

Which year? Because with all of the IPs you're saying aren't coming any time soon, 2026 wouldn't look too promising either. If there's no 3D Mario, no Animal Crossing, and probably no Smash Bros. because of Sakurai working on Air Riders, what's even left besides Pokemon? Only other major game would be Luigi's Mansion. If you're correct about all of that (which I don't think you are, but for argument's sake let's say you are), then that rules out most of the megatons. And if you're thinking they don't have the resources to make those megatons over the smaller games that are being made now, it's not just 2025/2026 that are a concern, that leaves concerns for 2027 and maybe even 2028 too. Then I'd be having major concerns about a Wii U-esque drought for the entire generation (just with more ports, remakes, and remasters).

They're not A-Tier in terms of sales though. Also Prime 4 is cross-gen.

@VoidofLight The Splatoon Team and Animal Crossing Team are not the same and haven't been for awhile, I wish people would stop echoing that. Animal Crossing New Horizons had a ton of new names in the credits, and Splatoon 3 have almost no overlap in staff, save a small handful of artists and QC, and one executive. The team split in two following Splatoon 2. Nintendo wasn't going to keep two of their top 5 selling IPs unable to be made in parallel.

@Bolt_Strike I don't think 3D Mario is happening next year. They would've revealed it in the direct if it were, but instead they chose to reveal a Yoshi game. Maybe we could see another 2D Zelda, given those tend to have a faster turn-around time and are made by Grezzo- but it won't get as many people to buy consoles. It'll probably interest as many people as Age of Imprisonment has. I could see Luigi's Mansion 4 happening next year- given that Next Level Games hasn't done anything in a while I'm pretty sure. I can also see Monolithsoft revealing or teasing their next big RPG- probably Xenoblade Chronicles 4. If we get those two, or at least have both of those revealed alongside Pokemon, that'll interest a good few people. Not as much as Zelda or Mario would- but I know a good chunk of people who are saying they won't buy a Switch 2 unless there's something like Luigi's Mansion 4 or Xenoblade 4.

@link3710 Ahh, that makes sense. I never finished Splatoon 3- or played much of it to roll credits so I didn't know the teams split.

Yoshi has no bearing on 3D Mario, it's a very different type of platformer. There may be multiple reasons why they would choose not to reveal 3D Mario now, such as not wanting to overshadow earlier releases.

2026 is a bit early for 2D Zelda since we just got Echoes of Wisdom in 2024. 2027 maybe, but not 2026.

Not as much as Zelda or Mario is an understatement, Xenoblade isn't in the same league as them. The highest selling Xenoblade game is only 2.7 million, Zelda and Mario have sold 10 times that much. That's pretty niche. Xenoblade is in the same tier as games like Fire Emblem and Metroid, there's a dedicated, vocal fanbase, but not a high seller. When a Xenoblade game sells 5-10 million (and I don't see XC4 reaching that number), then we'll talk about it being a system seller.

Thinking about a February direct...We know a shocking number of probable 2026 games already:

• Mario Tennis Fever
• Mario Wonder DLC
• Yoshi and the Mysterious Book
• Splatoon Raiders
• Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
• Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream
• Rhythm Heaven Groove
• Pokémon Pokopia
• Pokemon Champions
• Pokemon Gen 10 seems almost guaranteed

That's 8 'full' games, 1 major DLC, amd whatever you classify Pokemon Champions as.

Most years have a Zelda and it's been awhile since we got a remaster or remake, so let's assume medium Zelda game also.

That's most of the 2026 schedule unless we have a really dense year (which we certainly might).

If a really major game (e.g. 3D Mario or Animal Crossing) was announced in early 2026 for a late 2026 release, it would be a quite good line up. Alternatively, a few more medium games could get thrown in and it would be more like 2018.

Assuming that is all true, I would imagine 2027 having:

• Pokemon gen 10 DLC
• Whichever of animal crossing or 3D mario isn't in 2026
• Mario Maker 3
• Kirby Forgotten Land 2
• Whatever this gen's exercise game will be.

Most of those aren't really major games though, not by the definition I put forth of 5-10+ million in sales. There's a few that might be on the fence (Tomodachi did reach 6 million on the 3DS, but has mostly been sub-5 million, Raiders and Pokopia are new spinoffs but their popular IPs so 5 million might be possible but I'm not confident), but for the most part this is quantity over quality. This lineup really needs at least one more big, 5+ million selling game.

You keep talking about what it means for sales or what it means for Switch 2 and so forth. But why does it matter? I buy gaming hardware to run software, and I buy software to enjoy the software. That's it. As a user I couldn't care less how many copies a game sells, what I care about is whether or not it's good

The only reason any of this sales stuff matters to us as end users or potential consumers is purely just a question of longer term support. We want the hardware platform to move units so it gets extended software support. Support that can open up more options for games we can then buy to play and enjoy

...... and I see little reason to be concerned about Switch 2 sales given it's quite literally the fastest selling console ever

Yeah, that's why I think there is a decent chance of 3D Mario or Animal Crossing; Nintendo would save some surprises for 2026 rather than telling us everything. The 'correct' Zelda remake could hit your 5+ million mark, but it would be nice to have one truly big game in year 2 besides Pokemon.

I just can't see Animal Crossing being until 2027. Nintendo would probably want to space out their life sim games.

Part of the reason I'm discussing sales is to speak to the general discourse surrounding the Switch 2 after this Direct. The presence/absence of high selling IPs helps explain the various opinions surrounding the Direct. The other part is that my tastes tend to align with some of the higher selling IPs. Not entirely of course, there's definitely high selling IPs that I won't buy and low selling IPs that I will, but that is a decent approximation of what kinds of games I'd be willing to play.

If you want specifics on my tastes, here's the basics. In general, I tend to prefer large single player adventure games that are heavy on exploration and platformers, but I'll also play some other games that have weird quirks to them. Typically I go for Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Metroid, Kirby, Yoshi, and sometimes some of the multiplayer games like Mario Kart and Smash. In terms of the specific games:

Welcome Tour: Glorified instruction manual with a handful of casual gimmick minigames that should've been a pack in. I can't believe Nintendo had the gall to charge for this, not paying a penny for it.
MKW: I always wanted an open world Mario Kart, but the $80 price tag and the lack of things to do in the open world put me off a bit to this one. I may consider buying this used, but not paying full price.
Zelda S2Es: I played BotW and it was novel but it's not one of my favorite open world games, so I can't say I'm excited to replay it. I have TotK, it's in my backlog but I haven't been able to bring myself to play this game (as blasphemous as that may sound). And Zelda notes is such a laughable Switch 2 perk that doesn't even utilize the actual console.
Jamboree S2E: I don't like party games.
DK Bananza: Bought it, played it, loved it. This has been the only surefire winner on the Switch 2 so far.
Kirby S2E: Also bought this one. It's fine, but I wasn't aware that it was only 12 levels and was kind of let down by the quantity. It's more Kirby, which is always good, but it's not mindblowing.
Galaxy double pack: I liked Galaxy even though it's more linear than I would like. Galaxy 2 is okay, but I enjoyed it less because it moved even further away from the sandbox formula. And I have 3D All Stars, so I have no incentive to repurchase Galaxy and paying $40 for the game that I didn't like as much doesn't add up.
Pokemon Legends Z-A: I tend to like Pokemon games and the real time battling looks pretty neat, but this game being confined to one city (which doesn't look comparable to other full sized Pokemon regions as it should) and the reveal from the website that the Kalos Megas are exclusive to FOMO PvP content really has me questioning this game's value. I might wait for reviews on this game, because it's starting to look pretty scummy.
Age of Imprisonment: I don't like Musou games.
Kirby Air Riders: My friend loved having me play City Trial on the original, but I could never get into it, and I don't see much from this game that makes me any more interested. I could possibly reconsider later, but this isn't a game that'd be at the top of my wishlist.
Metroid Prime 4: I usually love Metroid games, but the motorcycle and open world segments have the potential to ruin this for me depending on how it's handled. I need to know how this works with the Metroidvania gameplay before I make a final decision on whether I want it.
Mario Tennis Fever: I tend not to like sports titles
Wonder S2E: They focused too much on the multiplayer content which I don't care for, I want to see more of the single player content. I'll probably like this one, but I need to actually see the real meat of this expansion.
Yoshi: Terrible first look at this game that gives the impression that no one over the age of 5 will like this. Yoshi is too slow and plodding and I see little in the way of enemies and obstacles. I'm leaning no on this, but I'm open to changing my mind if later trailers show this game isn't as sterilized as it appears.
Rhythm Heaven: I don't like rhythm games
Tomodachi Life: Generally don't like life sim games and this one seems to dull. The quirks just don't land with me.
Pokopia: I've played a few builder games on mobile, but probably not something I'd be interested in playing on console. I'd be open to changing my mind.
Pokemon Champions: Focusing on the part of Pokemon I don't like (the competitive PvP content) and omitting the part that I do (the adventure and Pokemon catching). Not for me.
Fire Emblem: I don't like tactics games.
Splatoon Raiders: We know nothing of substance about this game yet, so hard to give an opinion. If this leans more towards single player adventure/exploration/platforming this might be a winner for me, but otherwise probably not for me.

So yeah, only real hit in my eyes is Bananza, pretty much everything else is either too minor to enjoy for very long, not for me, or has a questionable design philosophy that could detract from the experience. That last category gives me a few maybes, but even if they do pan out, I doubt anything here is going to be a Top 10 favorite Switch 2 game by the end of the generation (only possibilities for that are Prime 4 and Raiders). But there's certainly nothing on the horizon that I'm absolutely sold on.

So far there hasn't been a single hit, first or third-party, for Switch 2 for me. I've got MKW, DKB, and Kunitsu-gami (by Capcom). The former two I just don't enjoy, and I've tried to given the money has been sunk.

Kunitsu-gami I really enjoyed as a game, but the Switch 2 port is dreadful and I regret buying it. I've confirmed it's not the game itself by testing the demo on PC and Steam Deck. The S2 port has noticeable input lag, and the visuals are blurry and smudged in both handheld and docked. Performance also struggles to hit 30 a lot during boss fights and even some of the later normal levels, which is a problem for an action game, even if it's not critical.

Nintendo not showing a single new entry in a major IP (or a new one, for that matter) in this Direct is worrying. Not even a sneak peek of a new Mario or Zelda title, or even that they're in development.

@Bolt_Strike Pokopia Is going to be less of a builder game and more of an RPG if it's anything like Dragon Quest Builders tbh. That's the main thing that makes me incredibly interested in it- that it's made by the same team and is meant to basically be the same sort of game.

My recent speculation:

Since the Direct, I personally believe that there won't be a new Animal Crossing until at least 2027, because of Tomodachi Life and Pokopia releasing in 2026. They could still make 3D Mario in the Fall of 2026 if they announced it in the late winter or summer of that year though, since it was probably developed concurrently alongside Bananza.

As for Zelda, 2026 is the big 40th anniversary so surely they've got something Zelda related for that year. My guess is that rumored Ocarina of Time remake or ports of Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD that are available on both Switch 1 and 2.

I think they're going to use Luigi's Mansion 4 as the huge non-Pokemon 2026 game:

• The first game and the Gamecube itself released in September 2001 so releasing close by would act as a 25th anniversary release for the franchise
• Seems realistic based on Next Level's release timing (LM2 in March 2013, Federation Force in August 2016, LM3 in October 2019, Battle League in June 2022)
• LM1 coming to GCN NSO would mirror the timeline they used for LM3 (LM1 for 3DS in October 2018, LM3 for Switch in October 2019).

It makes sense, though I hope Next Level is working on something else instead for the moment. It wouldn't be great for them to just become the Luigi's Mansion team.

Just for fun, Switch games which sold more than 10 million by release year:

• 2017: 4 - Mario Kart, BotW, Odyssey, Splatoon
• 2018: 3 - Smash, Mario Party, Pokemon
• 2019: 4 - Pokemon, NSMBU-D, Ring Fit, Luigi
• 2020: 1 - Animal Crossing (though 3D all-stars was close)
• 2021: 3 - Pokemon, Mario Party, 3D World
• 2022: 4 - S/V, Arceus, Nintendo Sports, Splatoon
• 2023: 2 - TotK, Mario Wonder
• 2024: 1 maybe - Jamboree will plausibly hit 10 eventually

Guesses on Switch 2 long term sales:

• 2025: 3 or 4? - Mario Kart, Pokemon, Bananza? Possibly Galaxy 2 long term?
• 2026: ?? Pokemon gen 10. Unannounced game??

@FishyS Do you think Gen 10 of Pokémon will be a crossgen title or will it be exclusive to Switch 2?