Topic: I honestly think its too early for a new era console beyond Switch

Almost everyone I know got their Switch in 2020/2021 and seeing them discover how incredible the console is, is priceless. This is def 1 of Nintendo's most successful handheld devices and can match the 3DS's 11 year run, maybe even more than that. (3DS is technically still alive due to new indie games still being released on it, I assume that all ends this year in April?). Got my Switch in late 2019 and its still fresh new to me. I have so many games I need to start and catch up on for sure!

Is not about what nintendo wants, is about what is going to happen and how that plays out:

1) Ps5 and series x increased the design gap dramatically, so third party support is out of the question now. It was mostly grim to begin with with subpar versions of games like the wichter, but now it will be zero, nada.

Unless you count indie support as real third party support, but most people don't as good indie games are more like lightnings in a bottle rather than consistent releases.

Add to that the awful e-shop and we start seeing the issue here.

2) This will force the system to live with nintendo support only. The problem is that most nintendo heavy hitters are there already:

Smash, pokemon, mario kart, mario, even casual stuff like fit games is there already.

What can they do? Release more sequels? That can surely move software, but hardware?

Who will buy a switch for mario kart 9 that hasn't bought one for 8 or the other nintendo franchises?

3) So it will depend on hardware and software sales of nintendo titles for the longer appeal of the switch. If they aren't happy: they will scrap it to push new hardware.

2023 is going to be the key year for it.

4) Regardless, nintendo is in a really bad spot hardware wise anyway. No matter what they do: they won't release a better system for $300 than series s or ps5 all digital for $399.

So they are going to need something special and a switch 2 that plays sequels to very similar games to those on switch isn't going to cut it.

It will be fun to see what they will do next.

You can't compare this to the 3DS, though, the circumstances are entirely different. For the first time since the 80s, Nintendo is running with only one console.

@Vivianeat Switch largely replaced the 3DS in 2017. That's a six-year-run as their major portable. Which perfectly positions 2023 as the year a successor should launch and begin gradually replacing it.

Ok??? But you are not the gaming industry.

@Vivianeat : There are almost no indie games being released on 3DS anymore. I've checked the 3DS eShop for the first time in nearly a year last night and hardly anything has been added since I last checked, and most of what has been released over the last 2-3 years looks like cheap hideous garbage.

I agree with you, but 3DS hasn't been on an 11 year run. It's tear ended in 2019. It got 8 years, 2 of which overlapped with Switch due to a lack of confidence in fully transitioning to Switch right away.

But ya, it's got some life left in it. For sure. 2024 minimum. Could be longer, depending on chip shortage and how many more years before momentum slows enough to warrant it. But there's at least another 2 solid years.

@Hylian1234
1) 3rd party support isn't "out entirely". Not every 3rd party game is some massive realistic title that could never run. Falcom now developing Switch titles in house, such as the 4 new Trails games they announced, Square Enix developing exclusives like Triangle Strategy and their "more titles TBA in 2022", etc is a perfect example of how support will continue as strong as ever. Not to mention the absolute truckload of 7th and 8th gen games that are still ripe for porting, such as the leaked Assassin's Creed Ezio Trilogy.

2) 100 million consoles sold in less than 5 years and momentum stronger than any other console before it... there's plenty of ppl continuing to buy Switch even without any big new game driving them to do so. Their catalog appeal has legs. They could stop making games tomorrow and ppl would continue buying Switches at 20 million per year for several more years just on back catalog alone.

3) New hardware will come when Nintendo is planning for it to come. Likely 2024, but if Switch continues selling as hard as it is, and with the chip shortage, I could see them holding off an extra year.

4) Nintendo's never been in a better spot hardware wise. They don't have to release a "better system" than PS5 or Series S. Just like everyone said the $300 Switch was "too expensive" and then when Series S released, "who would buy Switch when you could get this instead"... but in the end, nobody cared. Switch is hybrid, and people want that more than they want a $300 TV only console. And that's only going to be even more true when the successor releases.

The Switch is in a mid-life cycle and Nintendo knows this is becoming repetitive because of their prior consoles. I truly think that this time they'll make a shift in changing what can be done to keep their Switch/mobile base and integrate them. They've learned from the New 3DS and Wii U.

I think that their next phase in a way, is still the Switch. I believe they'll "try" to refine/copy the MS Xbox XS approach when it comes to legacy content with their current Switch base and build a mobile phone future on that (and NO I don't think Nintendo will make their own phone but rather a gaming service for our current/future phones). So they're either waiting for phone tech to get even better for the new era service to work or researching a new MS Xbox XS like console using Yokoi's "Lateral Thinking with Withered Technology" approach.

But hey they could go the dumb easy route "make new physical console, consumer starts over, a new base slowly grows, too late, new physical console soon, repeat.

Hard to believe it's almost been five years since its release. It doesn't feel that long in the tooth and it feels like there's plenty yet to come.

The main question is where do they go from here? They've hit the nail right on the head with it and it would be pretty silly to fool with a winning formula. But Nintendo being Nintendo, who knows what crazy idea they'll come up with next. The main danger being, with the success of the Switch, is there really only one way the next console can go?

Were it not for the chip shortage, I would disagree. The Switch has been out for a reasonably long time, they've exhausted almost everything they can do with it, and the hardware is starting to get outdated. It does feel like it's about time for something new.

@Hylian1234 Third-party support will likely be largely the same as it has been. Overwhelming indie support, strong AA support from Japanese and Western developers, the usual ports/remasters, and, of course, exclusive third-party releases built for the system. The only games where the power differential will be meaningful at all is with demanding AAA stuff, and the vast majority of third-party AAA fare never hit the Switch in the first place.

So, no, the third-party support Nintendo has been receiving will likely be largely unaffected by the new consoles.

Honestly this is so obviously correct that a thread should not be necessary. The last two Playstations and the last Xbox had 7 years, there's no good reason to think Switch should be any less. And honestly, if anything, between delayed games, less consoles available at stores and Switch's incredibly success in 2020, I'd expect it to be more than 7 years at this point.

Peaches! Did I miss an announcement?

I want an upgraded Switch because I like buying stuff

Nintendo are just waiting for the new Tegra SoC (Orin most likely) manufacturing costs to come down to a profitable level and for the chip manufacturing constrains due to COVID to be alleviated. When will that be? Nobody but Nvidia and Nintendo know. Could be next year. Or it could be 2026 for all we know (which is next to nothing).

But that won't stop the core Switch fanbase from asking Nintendo for a hardware refresh each and every passing year until it happens.

@Vivianeat I was literally just talking about something like this in the Switch Rumours thread! That's a mad coincidence.

I struggle with this idea. Phone tech is already there, there are phones on the market now which could cope with an emulator for any old Nintendo console. But Nintendo are all about the player experience, they won't just port a game and overlay touch controls, they want their games to deliver maximum enjoyment, so I think there is little chance of classic Nintendo games being release on phone app stories.

If you consider what MS are doing with XCloud and streaming, I could see Nintendo doing that, but MS have put years of development and testing into it and were starting from a position of far superior online capability. For Nintendo to introduce a streaming service it would be a significant investment and would take them years. Maybe they could partner with MS, but I wouldn't expect anything like this for 5+ years.

@MarioBrickLayer Yes the phone tech is there, but I had to mention "current" and "future" just in case. Not everyone can download newer games on their phone due to older models. Most people still have their phones from 2017-2019 and I assume Nintendo wants to make sure that majority of casual consumers can own a 2020/2021 and up model-type phone for their service to work because they like to wait for tech to be cheaper for everyone to afford.

I'm sure Nintendo is taking note that they can make a controller but still have the ability to use touch. I'm sure they are waiting for mobile VR tech to refine too, to work for whatever is next for them. From there its just adding their peripherals to work with the phone. MS and Nintendo have a good relationship so I think they could help shepherd and refine each other's tech.

Whatver is after the Switch, its their last physical form then after that I can see a service. If anything Nintendo wants to be like Steam for phones/PC.

@rallydefault This is true but they are also in the mobile phone market which I think is the next biggest move/research for them.

With BOTW2 mentioned for 2022 release that more less indicates a updated GPU wise Switch will all but be coming-this would the icing on the cake for Switch nExt gen system. Why people didn't know of this announcement is ludicrous. Trying to compare Nintendo consoles that don't use the same carts is disingenuous here. It's starting to show it's age along with a aging GPU that is having harder time keeping up with more demanding games coming out. OLED and slightly bigger with more storage will only go so far. Remember these R&D been in the works along with having supplies ready-it's not like one day Nintendo just started decided let's make a updated Switch.