Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Now that it's October and they skipped a September Direct, does anyone think a Direct is going happen this month, or that another Direct won't happen until next year in February? I believe that them skipping September is a bit surprising but interesting, maybe it could be a sign of something they want to show soon, but I think I could be overanalyzing a bit. But, it would be surprising if we went throughout the final months of this year without at least one more Direct.

@Pastellioli My guess is no Direct until February, perhaps a reveal in January though, allowing that February Direct to showcase S2 exclusives and cross-gen games?

@CaleBoi25 I think that could be it, since September is usually the month for news and they skipped it, I think maybe they could hold off on revealing stuff till February, since that month will be when a lot of the titles they showed off in the June Direct a few months ago have already been released. I could see them waiting till a majority of the June Direct games are released and then revealing a couple more titles next year.

I do wonder what will be the time for them to reveal the next console and some games for it. I have been guessing that early 2025 will be the reveal for the Switch 2 after a few more Switch units sell this holiday, but a lot of people have been saying October is the reveal (plus Nintendo Life is also predicting that they will reveal the Switch soon) or that they will reveal it near the 8th anniversary of the Switch in March 2025, but I am a bit uncertain as to when they actually will reveal it since Nintendo is very unpredictable with dates.

@Pastellioli Well the Switch 2 reveal is the million dollar question and the elephant in the room when it comes to any kind of Direct. The one thing I'll say is that we're probably not seeing a general Direct. We may see a Switch 2 Direct or presentation to reveal games though. But again, it's hard to say if the Switch 2 will be revealed in October or if we have to wait until Q1 2025 to see it. A lot of people are taking the leaks and rumors to mean that a reveal may be imminent... but we haven't gotten anything yet. They promised us a Switch 2 reveal by the end of March so that's the latest we'll be waiting, but it remains to be seen if it's going to be revealed earlier or later in that time frame.

@Bolt_Strike
If it's anything like the Switch reveal they'll just drop a tweet out of nowhere. Probably when people don't expect it. And I think it's fair to say they're very much aware of the hype train/leaks going on

Remember that on fire chibi robo? That was posted when the internet was in a similar state with the NX hype cycle. Apparently on one of the Kit and Krista podcasts they went into that. The higher ups were not happy about it and there was an internal investigation. So I suspect this time around it's going to even more business as usual until we get a tweet out of nowhere

The only thing we have to go on in terms of predicting it is whether or not third parties start to get antsy about it. Also leaks, leaks suggest production and leaks mean Nintendo is not controlling the message. They don't suggest a specific date but the longer this drags out the higher the risk the of leaks or a third party stealing some of the limelight

@skywake All true, but one thing to also remember is that if they are just going to do a random trailer drop again they're going to want a lot of people to see it to get social media buzzing. Not as many people are following Nintendo's official channels (if anything they're following a news site like this one or a social media influencer), so they're going to want to give some kind of advance notice. So just like last time and with typical Directs, if they were to go that route, they're probably going to announce the reveal the day before it happens. That really is a good balance in that regard. It's far enough away that they can build up a big enough audience while being close enough to prevent outside companies and leakers from doing too much damage to the messaging.

I'm still rooting for a reveal before the Nov 5th financial meeting. Which means October in practice since they wouldn't want to be right on top of the media chaos which will be the US presidential election also on Nov 5.

Although they would also avoid having right on top of Jamboree, it feels like there are a lot of days in October where a reveal would work.

@skywake I wonder if normal timings apply? Is it before 2PM UK time?

@FishyS I feel if it's not happening next week, it's not happening in October or this year for that matter. Nintendo would probably want to give Jamboree the same space that Zelda got so I don't see it happening the week of release or the week after meanwhile I don't see Nintendo announcing Switch 2 on Halloween week. The cycle would begin again in November because of Brothership but then you're way deep into the holiday season.

@Grumblevolcano Sit back, chill and wait for February. Play some games. Enjoy being with family and friends during the holidays. Moan at being skint in January. Be joyfully surprised if it's announced sooner. (Man, I would make a rubbish Youtuber!)

@FragRed The winter holidays are the time of year when a company like Nintendo can expect to see the biggest profits, so I would think they are quite concerned about continuing to sell consoles and software throughout that period. It would seem counterintuitive to undercut the momentum of Switch classic just before the holidays by announcing a new console coming soon.

On the other hand, if Nintendo is targeting a March 2025 release window, announcing now would make sense. But I suspect they intend to announce in April or March and launch in summer or fall 2025. If Switch 2 is indeed ready to go and moving into full production, they may be able to launch sooner than usual after the initial reveal.

Note that they already told us they would announce before April. As for the general timeline, the main evidence things will happen a bit earlier (ignoring leaks) is the lack of the traditional September direct. Fundamentally there needs to be February and March games (and a bunch more if Switch 2 is not until Fall 2025) and September is the time some of those normally would be announced if there isn't anything unusual disrupting the schedule. That is not definitive evidence, but it's one of the only things we know for sure.

The holiday profits arguments have been discussed a lot in this forum, but I would say the summary is that the company in Japan with the most on-hand cash will be more concerned about their long-term profit strategy with their new console than they will be with short-term profits. Assuming they have the Switch 2 games ready, the timing decisions will inevitably be based on that long-term strategy.

@BougieBeetle
Well we can definitely exclude them announcing in April. The announcement is this FY, so it's before the end of March. Also I think you're seriously over-valuing holiday sales. If people are not buying Switch over the holidays because they want to get the Switch 2 instead.... that's not a lost sale

@skywake I know you are excited for Switch 2 but claiming someone to be 'seriously over valuing holiday sales' when it's where like 75% of a year's revenue comes from is funny. I would fire a CEO that didn't take holiday seriously lol!

@NinChocolate well I’ll with Japanese figures as they feel more appropriate for a Japanese conservative company, but Swirch sold 75k units last week. I think the west is under estimating (again like they have for the last couple of years lol)

@GrailUK
I meant value in this context. People are putting a huge emphasis on the importance of holiday sales and the risk of losing some of those sales. But they're not asking themselves what they're at risk of losing those sales to

Given the thing that would be causing the lost sales is a more premium Nintendo console you have to ask yourself, what's the concern here? That they lose holiday sales of Switch to the Switch 2 next year? And what of other things that lose holiday sales to Switch 2 next year?...... I don't see the issue

Edit: also, read the post you replied to. It's literally right there in the next sentence!

@NinChocolate If someone decides they don’t want to buy a Switch because they saw a trailer for Switch 2, and they decided “hey it’s more expensive but it’s backwards compatible and is guaranteed to have all Nintendo games going forward “, that’s not a oh no we lost a sale situation as that person is instead buying a more expensive and brand new console even though it’s a few months later.

@skywake
I agree. The people that are still buying Switch systems this late in its life span are not the kind of people who would rush out to buy a Switch 2 at launch. Other than the few who're replacing a broken or lost system maybe, or those who're buying the new limited edition Switch models. But those are relatively rare, and they would buy a Switch 2 at launch anyway.

In other words, I don't see Nintendo revealing their next system before the holidays resulting in a sales loss either. In fact, it might even be beneficial to them because it might deter people from buying a PS5 or Xbox for the holidays and wait for the new Nintendo console instead.

@stephajnan but isn’t it more a case of asking folk to do two things at once instead of concentrating on one thing at a time? Switch 2 messaging during a holiday push sounds like a lot.

@FishyS @skywake You are both making good points (as are many in this thread). But I would point out that if a consumer foregoes buying a Switch in holiday 2024 to instead buy a Switch 2 in summer 2025, that is a lost sale if they could have been convinced to buy both. There are children coming of gaming age all the time who are asking their caregivers for Switches and Switch Lights as a Christmas present, and those caregivers might know nothing about Switch 2, at the present moment. There are also many casual gamers who may buy a bundle as a present, or for themselves. All of these consumers are targets for Nintendo and it would seem to me that Big N would want to capitalize on them. I am sure their marketing team is looking at this situation very closely and doing everything they can to maximize holiday sales while minimizing consumer confusion. So for all these reasons I would be very surprised by a Switch 2 reveal trailer anytime before January 2025.

But hey, I've been wrong before, Nintendo moves in mysterious ways!