Nintendo has revealed that over the next financial year, covering the period of April 2020 - March 2021, it expects to sell 19 million Switch units worldwide.
The forecast arrives on the back of today's fiscal year earnings report, where Nintendo announced that the Switch family of systems achieved 21.03 million sales throughout FY20. Nintendo's forecast suggests that hardware sales are expected to drop by 9.6% over the next year, predicted in part thanks to concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
"There are concerns that COVID-19 will lead to a global decline in production and consumption," Nintendo says. "Given the situation, we will work to continue to convey the appeal of the Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch Lite hardware and expand their installed base".
Its major plans for 2020 currently known by the public include the release of Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition this month, Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics in June, and the distribution of the Expansion Pass for Pokémon Sword and Shield in the summer. Software sales are also expected to decline throughout the next year, with Nintendo's predictions forecasting a drop of 17%.
While its 2020 line-up still looks rather slim on the surface, Nintendo notes that "other software publishers also plan to release a wide variety of appealing titles, and the combination of existing popular titles and a continuous stream of appealing new titles will work together to invigorate the platform".
Do you think this forecast feels about right? Or would you have expected a different total come the end of the next fiscal year? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below.
"Which would be a 9.6% year-on-year drop"
Nintendo stock news tomorrow:
@nhSnork hahahah, nice.
It’s actually an increase of their forecast of last year, which is all that actually should matter
Wish I had money to buy Nintendo stock during the panic
Hopefully this means Nintendo have a new hardware revision waiting in the wings to be pushed out when hardware sales take a dip. As my current launch Switch has cracks from the battery swelling I would like a shiny new model.
Battery swelling is dangerous, you should stop using that system immediately and get it replaced.
That battery could explode and cause a fire or damage.
@BulkSlash Let that be replaced immediately.
@BulkSlash if the swelling is prominent enough to crack the back panel, it's high time to turn the console off and leave it be until you can replace the battery or the console itself. Like others said, you're risking fires, explosions and other dangerous stuff otherwise - but even in the lesser of possible evils, the console may face internal damage and die before you can transfer the accounts. I've been there with my 3DS recently (swollen battery, I mean - shelved it in time and successfully replaced the battery later).
NSW shipments by fiscal year
> FY2016: 2.74 million
> FY2017: 15.05 million
> FY2018: 16.95 million
> FY2019: 21.03 million (Total as of March 2020: 55.77 million)
> FY2020: 19.00 million forecast
Forecasted total up to March 2021: 74.77 million
The 3DS has sold 75.78 million units and has effectively been discontinued, so Nintendo expects the Switch to approach the 3DS's lifetime sales by the end of March 2021.
well they need new games to do that and right now there is nothing new after June
I already own three Switch consoles- one basic model with the dock and the rest are Lites. One Blue and one Gray.
That Coral model looks mighty fine- might have to trade one unit in and get the Coral once stock has been replenished...
@BulkSlash Always worth checking with Nintendo if they will replace it. You need to get that replaced somehow pretty much straight away unless you don't plan on using it.
Our household now has a main Switch and 3 lites, aqua, grey and, most recently, yellow.
Outside the store-stock sell out from COVID, I think a dip in sales is good as it will prompt a reason for Nintendo to give us a handheld 1080p Switch upgrade model with new graphics chip and realistic GB storage (there are thumb drives with more GB!) seeing how ports are getting larger and larger as we get more variety coming over.
If it were a normal year I'd say this was a fair guess. But between the pandemic and the utter lack of announcements for software releases this year, I am seriously skeptical.
@muscpt I'm all for a premium model with a 1080 screen, less wasted space with the border around the screen too. But rather than more default internal storage, just give us a second SD card slot. And Bluetooth headphone support.
This is probably a fair prediction. Does make one wonder where Switch will land in Nintendo’s list of console totals. Cause Wii sales dramatically dropped in its last 2.5 years or so. If Nintendo sees a drop they’ll probably introduce a new Switch to give sales a little boost.
With what games Nintendo? As barren as the 2020 lineup is now, even this would be an optimistic prediction. We're staring down the barrel of a Wii U level drought right now if they don't give us a major blowout of games in the next few months.
@MoonKnight7 While drops are fairly common for most consoles, the Wii's sales drop was pretty drastic and indicative of the systems most major problem being it's lack of a true healthy and sustainable market base. The Wii's major focus was casual audiences, a demographic that more or less had moved on to mobile gaming by 2011. In contrast the Switch has targeted multiple demographics of different ages and genders, from almost all different backgrounds of gaming experience. I've seen a lot of Facebook friends around my age (20s) either buy a Switch for themselves or express interest in doing so. It feels like it's success is a lot more sustainable than the Wii's and because of this I feel like it has a really good chance of actually beating the Wii, at least by a little bit.
I wonder if this guidance is related to a potential Switch XL in the works to counter the decline in sales of the base model, but impacted by constraints on manufacturing and shipping.
@Bevinator I bought two shares at the start of the year. Hardly wolf of Wall Street but I made $30! Mind you, I’ve given nintendo about a billion since 1989 Robin Hood is the app I use
Yeah that’s more or less what I’m trying to question, and I do agree, I think the Switch has a decent shot cause it’s in a much better position as a hybrid console. The Wii aged poorly, especially when the HD market exploded around 2010 or so. Regardless, it’ll probably get close either way.
Funny enough, I’ve seen a lot of people express interest as well. Especially with everyone locked down in their homes.
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