Nintendo Still Confident It Can Ship 20 Million Switch Consoles This Financial Year

The hard part isnt making them...

With Pokemon this should be easy

They have some good games coming. And if they play it right (looking at you Prime 4), they could ship even more in 2019.

It's god to see Nintendo back in track and that the Wii U is just a bad memory

Pokémon Go should sell plenty of consoles, but Smash I don't see having that much of an impact. It is a game coming out after the majority of people have already decided and purchased their big presents for Christmas, and it is a game that will be picked up mainly by the hardcore Nintendo crowd who likely already have the console.

In the same time, They sold already 18 Millions so I don't understand how it could be impossible to sell only 2 Millions more...

I think 20 Millions is really LOW if you already sold 18...

@Cobalt
That's 20 millions this year, not in total.
I think that means about 35 million in total.

@Cobalt that was 18 million in the first year plus the previous March. They were expecting to sell an additional 20 million from the beginning of April this year to the end of March next year

With the current Line up They won’t! Nintendo hasn’t released a single AAA game this year

@Hobbesyall Don't underestimate the power of Pokemon my friend

@Rhaoulos

OW ok, like that I understand better !!! Thanx !

@slinkyjynx Pokemon let’s it’s a cheap trick! And I really do think Nintendo hasn’t prepared 2018 as it should

@Knuckles-Fajita It appears that making them very much is the hard part. I doubt they'll have trouble selling 20m by March after releasing Pokemon and Smash.

Nintendo better show us some VERY interesting games planned for the first half of 2019 on their next direct towards the end of 2018 if they expect to get people excited to buy the Switch.
Smash and a "light" Pokemon game won't cut.

Curious question when people say Pokémon and Smash will sell that, is there fans solely of those two franchises that dislike the IPs currently on the Switch and that’s why they don’t own one yet?

@ValhallaOutcast I'd say is a mix of people that are waiting for more games that they like to be available (in this case Pokemon and/or Smash) or people that perhaps have one console but with the release of say, Pokemon, they will get another for their kids, so each kid has a console to play their preferred version of the game?

It's hard to pin point an exact reason.

@Cobalt

I read the article in the same way you did. It didn't make it clear if they meant 20 million in total or 20 million since launch

@tourjeff good point

@ValhallaOutcast Not sure about Smash, but I know Pokemon in particular has a large fanbase that only plays Pokemon. Part of it has to do with the competitive scene and part of it is hardcore Pokemon fans. However, I don't think Let's Go will have as much of a push as Generation 8 will eventually.

Along with this figure originally came a sales projection for 100 million software sales (boxed and/or digital not disclosed), and I think they're going to hit both. Maybe even with a bit of wiggle room.

@Hobbesyall that's due to the fact they dont make triple a games

Their weak game line-up this year should worry Nintendo far more than parts shortages. After the amazing launch last year, this year has been very much a slew of reheats, budget games, and C grade fodder. The best game on the system this year may end up being Octopath, and that's far from AAA quality and budget.

With Pokémon and Smash, I can see Nintendo having a great holiday season. But until then... nothing that screams BUY on Switch. Primarily just more ports!!!

@ramu-chan

This year does feel very Wii U like.

Of the parts aren't getting cheaper, I guess we can't expect a price cut any time soon

It seems impossible to sell more than the first year that benefited from early adopters, Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey and Mario Kart 8. If Switch sales are already slowing down where is the catch? Super Smash Bros. has never sold more than Mario Kart except on GameCube and the new Pokemon is a spin-off remake. Is Nintendo Labo its new system seller?

I think some folks here sometimes forget that late adopters are a real thing. I got my Switch in February this year and have not felt a dearth of games at all. One of my friends is getting a Switch likely at Christmas, and Pokémon was the final tic in the “yes” decision column. Other than Wii and GameCube, I’ve never gotten a console at launch. I jump in a year later so there’s more games to play on a big ticket item.

I doubt there will be any issues with them hitting that target. Japan was a region where the stock was constantly sold out due to supply constraints (they even had to use lotteries when selling their stock). It also sells about 40k+ units every two weeks without any new software.

I'm betting there will be an extremely large spike when Pokémon Let's Go comes out since it's a combination of two of the biggest things in Japan (mobile + Pokemon). I also see a large spike outside of Japan since this is something that's less likely to target the core market (where a lot of them would already have picked up the console) and rather will bring in more casual gamers. There are a number of people I know that have already preordered the game and will pick up the Switch when it comes out since it looks more relaxing and less competitive.

Then we have Smash which is likely to target more core gamers that haven't quite made the jump yet. Considering that Smash sold well over 10mil for their last game odds are this one will sell more since it has the advantages of both versions while lacking most of the disadvantages of either version (online remains to be seen).

Finally, Nintendo's year end isn't in December. It's the end of March. It'd be much more surprising for them to NOT to hit their target. It would be foolish to bet against them in this case.

@MasterJay I consider Zelda to be AAA, so is mario and so on! But damm this year was so poor

@cleveland124 no, because the switch are having lots of games every month, not just first party, but indies, ports, collections, and third party.

@ramu-chan the year is hardly over at all. why don't you wait and see in march 2019, then you can say something if you hardly see any good games from now until then.

@EasyDaRon Nintendo just started in April this year. It is hardly over yet.

@Hobbesyall How would you know? just because of a couple directs, you think that is all the games The switch will have this year? Why don't you wait until march 2019, then you can say something if this doesn't happen.

@ekwcll I did say so far! And I stand by it Nintendo dropped the ball this year

@Hobbesyall four months in the switch second year, and you say Nintendo has dropped the ball. why, because some games you want haven't been mentioned yet. there must be some games you want pretty badly to make you say that Nintendo dropped the ball, and they haven't mentioned all the games that are coming out yet.

@NewAdvent it's not the same Pokemon though, it's really Yellow with Go combined, so it's going to alienate fans, AND you're ASSuming that Go users will shell out $300 for a Switch on top of $60 for a game when they've been used to only paying $5 to $10 at a time. Not as big a lock as you think. Oh, and as for Smash, how well did that sell Wii U again?

@Ernest_The_Crab why is everyone ASSuming that Go players who paid like $5 and $10 at a time are going to shell out $300 for a system and $60 for a game? Have people really misunderstood mobile players that much? If you want to get them, you give them free stuff, and nickel and dime them, they're not the kind of people who'll willingly shell out large sums of money to buy new expensive playing gadgets when their phones are good enough. THAT is why people are putting extremely high hopes on a REMADE Pokemon game, which also by the way don't really sell well either!

@ekwcll it's already tracking behind last year's pace worldwide, meaning they're putting a LOT of stock on Pokemon and Smash as holiday games to push the systems, and it's a high risk, because mobile players RARELY spend large amounts for new hardware- the only reason Go helped the 3DS was because the 2DS had just been dropped to $80, but if Switch stays $300 for this holiday, remade Pokemon or not, it's NOT going to do last year's numbers.

@pika677 you underestimate the attraction of Pokemon, specially in Japan. Remake or not, casual gamer focused game or not, it will sell a ton in Japan. Got no clue about those games will perform outside Japan though.

Also, at this pace, by (fiscal) year’s end the Switch will probably overtake PS4 in Japan with more units sold in two years than PlayStation in five!

I think is waaaaay to early to call doom on Nintendo.

He also announced they have a whole ton of additional games to announce for this year. I'm guessing that means financial year, but even then we only have 8 months left, Nintendo need to get their act together and actually tell us whats coming in the future.

8 Months lead in for hype and seems legitimate, I also sometimes like to see how a game develops allowing me to follow it and get excited. I just wish they'd bring gamers along with them, as we have become accustomed to other companies doing. Plus, I selfishly just want more games for my Switch

With this lineup? They're probably not going to come close. Maybe 10 million at best. LG is going to do reasonably well, but it's not a system seller for the Pokemon fanbase. That's going to come with next year's game, that'll be the big draw for Pokemon fans.

@ekwcll Well nintendo non ports so far (first 4 months): Kirby Star Allies and Mario Tennis! Excuse me if I think that’s nowhere near sufficient! That’s gotta be the crappiest 1st party line up nintendo ever pulled on a consoles 2nd year XD

@pika677 maybe, not last year's numbers, but still more than 20 million lifetime sales by the end of February 2019. I still think there are more games than just pokemon and smash that will help the switch by feb 2019.

@Hobbesyall wow, strong words from you. I do not have a wii u, so dk tf is not a port for me. there are a lot of people that do not have a wii u, so those games that Nintendo released from the wii u as well as those new first party titles in the first four months are not crappy to me. it all depends what genre you like. my guess is the first party games you do like haven't been mentioned or not coming out yet. I am not interested in tennis or Kirby, but I know that millions of fans are. That doesn't mean that Nintendo have a bad lineup because of those games.

@ekwcll Nintendo never had the strongest line ups but at least drop someone these one the faithful ones who had every console they ever outed: AC, Pikmin, metroid, F-zero, fire emblem, Donkey Kong, luigi’s masion, whatever. It feels like if you used to own a Wii U, you might aswell get an XB or a PS if u want new games cause nintendo is not gonna drop anything major this year !!!

Pokémon and Smash are going to sell, but I don't believe that alone is enough. Unless they bundle them for the Holidays.

@Hobbesyall never expect the unexpected. besides there are far more games than just first party being distributed. I like the indies, retro, arcade, collections and aaa titles too. Anyway I did used to have a wii u, and I am still glad the good games from that system are coming to a better system with a larger audience. Yes I have xbox one x as well, and I love both of my systems.

@ekwcll hahaha I got nothing against ports but I always only had nintendo consoles up until last E3 when after I saw Nintendo E3 I bought an XB1 S XD I’m just sad all these great games always pass nintendo by !!

@pika677 This is the same region that bought a Wii for Wii Sports (which is the one region where it didn't come bundled). They clearly didn't buy it for Zelda, which isn't a console seller over there.

You're clearly underestimating the casual market in Japan.

This really isn't that lofty of a goal. Last Fiscal year, they sold around 15 million Switch systems, and almost every gaming system released in the past 20 years has sold noticeably more in it's second full fiscal year than it's first (I believe the Wii U is the only exception). In fact 20 million (a 33% increase over last year) is really somewhere in the realm of expected.

I also think that a lot of people on sites like these need to remember that they don't represent a majority of the people who play gameing consoles. Many people, unlike those of us here, don't buy a console as soon as a game/s comes out that they want. Often times, people wait for a variety of personal reasons (waiting for a holiday, can't afford at the moments, simply can't justify spending the money right away, etc.). As of such, game like Zelda, Mario, and Mario Kart are still going to be systen sellers this upcoming holiday season. Nintendo doesn't need more games announced, because the selling power of Pokemon, Smash, and the variety of other great games to already come out will easily sell the desired amount of consoles.

@ekwcll Why do you tell people to stop posting their opinions and wait until the second year is over to complain? If they are wrong today they will realise tomorrow but you can't ask them to wait a year to express themselves!

@Hobbesyall Well I fully agree with you!

@BlueOcean I figured that somebody would agree with you, so let me tell you this. No matter what I say, people will express themselves anyway. People will say what they say especially when they are unhappy that the games they want are not mentioned or hasn't come out yet. So they express that Nintendo has a crappy lineup of first party or they had dropped the ball. Rather than just wait and see and be patient, they decide to express their unhappiness because they can't get the game that they want right away.

Better bring some good stuff Ninty coz atm it feels like the Switch is going the way of the WiiU

@electrolite77

I agree; the Switch is doing fine. Pokémon and Smash are probably a bigger combo than Mario and Zelda. Any year where we get a Pokémon game and a Smash game is pretty good, let alone on one system. Also, 3rd parties have been increasing their support. Capcom and Bandai Namco, in particular, have supported the Switch much more this year than they did last year. And with the recent success of Crash, I imagine Activision will start putting some more games on the system too. That’s without even mentioning awesome indies like Celeste and Hollow Knight. I, for one, am pretty happy that the Switch is starting to get multiplats day and date.

We've got some clowns in the house. Just because you've played Zelda, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey etc, doesn't mean anything to someone who's just buying their Switch now. There is no sell by date on games, they're not cartons of milk, to whoever purchases one these titles are all brand new and something to play regardless of whether you played it last year.

@electrolite77 agreed, but some people do not listen.

@NintyNate not a chance of that happening.

I don't think Nintendo thinks they will make 20 mil sales in 2018. I think they are just saying they are confident to keep themselves from losing more investors. The lineup between now and march 2019 is just way too weak. The new Pokemon games are not being welcomed as well as a normal Pokemon game would be (people not happy with Go play style), smash is great but also not being welcomed like a normal smash game would be (being called a port). All the other games just don't make nearly as many sales. The only way this console will make those kinds of sales, is if they have some major announcements like Animal Crossing coming up for release in the next half of the year as well. I think we have seen all of the major releases that are coming though, anything else will be smaller. Even the game this supposed to come out this month from Panic Button is supposed to be a port. Ports are great, but they don't sell consoles.

@WiltonRoots
Exactly, its not like those games will go moldy. I believe that a lot of people buy systems after there are a certain number of games available that interest them. So for example they wont buy a Switch just for Zelda, but they'll buy one for Zelda, Mario and Smash.

Everyone has different games that sell them a system, I don't even own Zelda, Mario Kart or Splatoon 2 on the Switch and they are supposed to be big system sellers.

@Hobbesyall,

You are underestimating the mass market appeal of Pokemon Go,and you are looking at this form a more core point of view,we ourselves may not see the appeal of the Pokemon Go game,but the masses will lap it up as it is been driven by the enormous success of the mobile title.

@electrolite77,

Because they all look at things from a core forum posting point of view,Neogaf is exactly the same...because these gamers have played most of the Switch's indie library already on other systems,they do not see how it could sell or tempt people to buy a Nintendo Switch.

Just like certain posters on here they see themselves as a full representation of the whole gaming market,which in fact is miles away from the actual truth,Neogaf itself only has around 135,000 regular contributors,and I bet if you added up all the forums together not accounting for multiple accounts and members that belong to multiple sites you would struggle to find much more than 600,000 or so people.

So how the hell can this be indicative of the whole market,but you have to bear in mind that a lot of these people did not think the Switch would sell well in the first place.

I don't know about the rest of the world, but it's been a while since I have walked past a "sold out" sign in the video game department for Switch consoles.

@Heavyarms55,

It's over a year after launch so I would be surprised to see it sold out anywhere outside of the holiday season.

@sashj ,

Yes because that would work.

@johnvboy Well, if they were having supply problems with parts again, I could see it happening with any company.

It's the nature of manufacturing these days. Basically no one makes their product from scratch anymore.

@Heavyarms55,

True.

@ekwcll better not be lol

If Gamestop's recent statements about the Switch (Sales doubled during E3 week + Huge Smash Bros Ultimate/Pokemon Let's Go preorders) are anything to go by, it seems like Nintendo is on its way to reach their shipment forecast.

@johnvboy Too little too late, Pokémon GO is very far from its peaks nowadays !!!

Honestly, I feel the complaint that the Let's Go games aren't going to sell well due to them alienating core fans is false. Most companies do not target the hardcore audience. Most games are made to appeal to a mass audience, as it is what sells the best. The Let's Go games will sell simply as they are Pokémon games, and I feel like it is smart to appeal to a more casual audience. RPGS have never really been as mainstream in the west as other genres, and a simplified one may help that. That being said, I don't think all fans will reject it. As it is evident from my profile picture, I am a huge Pokémon fan, and I am planning on buying the game.

Who said anything about deliberately overinflating sales? That’s not what they are doing. Imo they are just trying to damage control by saying they stand by their earlier projections of 20 mil in 2018.

In response to your claim that the Nintendo library will look very appealing to the gamers looking for a new console at Christmas. You fail to realize that nearly the entire Nintendo library can be found on the PS4. The only thing you won’t find is the Nintendo exclusives and maybe a few mediocre exclusive titles. Unless your a huge Nintendo fan, or want your games to be portable, people will most likely buy a ps4. So yes, the holiday sales will be heavily influenced by the Pokémon and Smash titles. The rest is just gravy.

@johnvboy #66 Nailed it...

@Hobbesyall Yeah I agree, but everyone treats games like the only way they're aaa is if they're realistic and mature. Which is stupid

@Rhaoulos It could be doable. If you see the sales statistics for basically all the consoles, the big point where pretty much all manufacturers sell most of their consoles in an entire year is very much the holidays.

So, in that regard, Smash Bros releasing in December of all things couldn't come at a more convenient time.

Because think about it, we're talking about consoles sold. Which means people getting a new console in holidays 2018 will never have played any of the Switch's titles except maybe at a friend's place.

So for these first-time adopters they'll be getting a Switch just as there's already games such as:
Zelda Breath of the Wild + DLCs
Mario Odyseey
Mario+Rabbids + DLC(I'm still surprised by the sheer quality of that game. No games featuring the Rabbids should be that good)

Octopath Traveller(I've convince players who played Monster Hunter World to get a Switch because of that game, when they were curious about Generations Ultimate being Switch-exclusive but were still looking for other titles to justify their purchases. Dragon Quest Builders below has also been a solid recommendation to tip over such Switch-curious people)

Mario Party
Mario Kart
Mario Tennis
Splatoon 2

and, this will sound odd but...

Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate(As said, this seem like a odd one, but Monster Hunter World has brought a lot of new players to the franchise on PS4. Except there's a little problem: most of them are already getting burnout of the limited content in World and it's particularly a lot of these "new adopters" who're now being curious about the Switch due to the sheer amount of content Generations Ultimate is supposed to hold. With hints of a Switch-exclusive 5th generation spin-off to later be released on the Switch as a portable companion story to World... that's a lot of hidden potential in that crowd alone considering Monster Hunter World managed the feat of selling 8 millions copies in only 3 months).

And that's just the biggest ones. Other solid titles I've witness from fellow first-time adopters' enjoyment include stuff like:

Dragon Quest Builders(I'm surprised by how much friends trying that out for the first time enjoyed the game, even when they didn't know the Dragon Quest franchise beforehand. Nobody who got it after I suggested it has regreted it so far)

Hollow Knight
Stardew Valley
Rocket League(With PC/Xbox crossplatform multiplayer, it was very much one of the most solid games of 2017... and actually already reported a ton of Switch sales)

And a ton more of the more indie titles that keep reporting getting three times the amount of sales on Switch than they get on other platform like Steam or the PS4.

@Hobbesyall,

The new Pokémon game on the Switch can still appeal to the masses,and you forget one important factor which is momentum,the Switch has had this since it's launch and I personally have never seen as many adverts for any Nintendo console,the Switch will continue to sell well throughout the year and will peak at the holiday season.

I’m sure many will enjoy Pokémon, Mario Tennis, and smash. No Metroid, wave race, pilotwings, or any other decent IP means they can sell another 20 million, but I won’t be buying any games. It’s like they are stuck offering the same handful of IPs. Nothing really new and compelling. I’ve moved on to a PS4 and more open world games than I can handle. My Switch is in the closet, and in fine with that.

Just remember people, you can’t “play” sales, you play games. 60 million systems sold means nothing if there are only 20 versions of Yoshi’s Island to play.

Also they have to be games “YOU” are interested in. Almost every Nintendo gamer wanted to play Zelda and Oddessy. Only a fraction of those want another Mario party game.

In business you want everyone, not just a fraction.

@electrolite77 yes those games donmatter after you played them. Who keeps playing the same Zelda at the same level of excitement? As we say in sales, “get quarter, so what’re you gonna do next?”

@NewAdvent they're already behind as reported today, and why is a spin-off suddenly going to do what no other spin-off did, or why is a game that didn't do it for Wii U suddenly going to do it for Switch? We're talking NEW owners, not existing ones buying the games!